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April 17, 2003

Descending from Altitude

What Can the Braves Expect from Mike Hampton?

by Ryan Wilkins

As it has been well-publicized by the media, both in and outside of the Colorado area, Mike Hampton's time in the Mile High City was anything but successful. In his two years with the Rockies, Hampton posted a won-loss record of just 21-28, along with a major league-high ERA of 5.75—more than half a run higher than the next closest starter, fellow Rockie and member of the Great Changeup Experiment, Denny Neagle.

And yet, as 2003 regular season gets under way, whose name do we see listed in the Atlanta Braves starting rotation? None other than Michael William Hampton. Acquired over the off-season in one of the most complicated deals of all time not involving Herschel Walker, Hampton joins perhaps the most vulnerable Braves rotation in a decade—a unit that has already seen its star have a brush with mortality, and an off-season signee go down until July.

What can be expected of Hampton, though? Members of the media have spent more than their fair share of time waxing philosophical on the situation, with most coming to the conclusion that gambling on the 30-year-old lefty is a worthwhile risk. Granted, this might very well be the case, as Hampton was among the winningest pitchers in the National League before signing with Colorado in 2001. Fellow Rockies refugee Darryl Kile was able to make the transition from 5,200 feet above sea-level to Busch Stadium without missing a beat. If he could do it, why can't Hampton?

But what does history tell us? Well, if one takes "history" to mean the host of statistically comparable pitchers who have appeared over the past 130 years, then Nate Silver's PECOTA projection system is as far as you're going to have to look. According to PECOTA, Hampton should be good for roughly 160 innings of slightly below-average baseball in 2003—an ERA of 4.93 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly one-to-one.

However, in many ways, PECOTA's assessment of Hampton is incomplete. After all, for the past two seasons, Hampton has spent more than half his starts in the most eye-poppingly ludicrous hitting environment in the history of the world. And if you don't think that has an adverse effect on your skill set, you're probably going to want to contact Jeff Cirillo and have a nice, long chat.

Now, in order for us to fill in the gaps that PECOTA ignores, the first thing we'll have to do is look at former Rockies pitchers who have managed to escape from the clutches of Mile High, and make a living throwing a baseball elsewhere. Is there a trend we can identify among pitchers leaving Colorado who go on to pitch for other teams? Does playing at altitude appear to have a carry-over effect on a pitcher's ability to perform? Below is a list of the top 15 pitchers in Rockies history, ranked by their innings pitched with the organization.