Baseball Therapy

Are Closers Worse When They're Surprised?

by Russell A. Carleton

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at what happens when a closer enters the game in a save situation after his team has handed him a lead with little warning. What we saw was that when a pitcher had only a short time between his team giving him the lead and his first pitch, his velocity and break tended to be a bit more erratic. The effect seemed biggest when the transition from lead to closing situation was near instant, but it quickly fell away and then died out completely around 15 minutes of warning time.

While this is an interesting observation of a pitcher's behavior, does the time a closer has to mentally prepare for a save situation actually predict anything useful about what will happen when the pitcher takes the mound? Is he less effective for his wildness? More?

Discovering the answer to that question is a little more complex than you might imagine. You always want to control for two major variables: how good the pitcher is in general and how good the hitters are whom he's facing. To do that, we're going to need to do some numerical gymnastics. So, with that said...

Warning! Gory numerical details ahead!
(Rated SPSS, because I don't use R)

I've previously shown this method in full elsewhere, so I'm going to do an abbreviated version here.

During a plate appearance, there are eight basic events that can happen: a walk, a strikeout, a hit batsman, batter reaches on an error, a single, an extra base hit (double or triple), a home run, or an out in play. You can calculate the rates at which each player ends up with each of those outcomes rather quickly.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

9 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Bizball: How Low Will ... (08/20)

<< Previous Column
Baseball Therapy: So Y... (08/06)

Next Column >>

Baseball Therapy: One-... (08/27)

Next Article >>

Future Shock: Monday M... (08/20)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Daily Hit List: Friday, May 17 In A Pickle: How Great Thou Bart Pitcher Profile: Scouting Alberto Gonzalez a... Baseball ProGUESTus: On the Origin of the Sw... What You Need to Know: Going the Wrong Ray Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Qua... Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framin...	MORE FROM AUGUST 20, 2012 Out of Left Field: Bobby Valentine's Communi... Resident Fantasy Genius: Six Starters for th... Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ... The Week In Quotes: August 13-19 Collateral Damage Daily: Monday, August 20 Daily Hit List: Monday, August 20 What You Need to Know: Monday, August 20
MORE BY RUSSELL A. CARLETON 2012-09-10 - Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran,... 2012-09-05 - Baseball Therapy: Is There Really Racism in ... 2012-08-27 - Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or L... 2012-08-20 - Baseball Therapy: Are Closers Worse When The... 2012-08-06 - Baseball Therapy: So You Wanna Be a Manager 2012-07-30 - Baseball Therapy: Seven Minutes of Terror 2012-07-24 - Baseball Therapy: It Happens Every May More...	MORE BASEBALL THERAPY 2012-09-10 - Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran,... 2012-09-05 - Baseball Therapy: Is There Really Racism in ... 2012-08-27 - Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or L... 2012-08-20 - Baseball Therapy: Are Closers Worse When The... 2012-08-06 - Baseball Therapy: So You Wanna Be a Manager 2012-07-30 - Baseball Therapy: Seven Minutes of Terror 2012-07-24 - Baseball Therapy: It Happens Every May More...