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August 10, 2012

Pebble Hunting

The Best Pitches Thrown This Week (By Jered Weaver)

by Sam Miller

I remember this Angels-Yankees game from 2009 because MLB.tv decided to let me watch it. I was in the blacked out area for Angels games, which was unfortunate, because I had just convinced my boss to pay for my MLB.tv so I could watch Angels games. And then this game played with no restrictions. I thought maybe it was where I was sitting in the building, that I had found a 10-square-foot pocket of Southern California that was somehow outside the law, like a tiny baseball Reservation. I tried for a month but never found it again. That’s why I remember this game. 

The Yankees’ lineup that day had Derek Jeter, followed by eight hitters who batted left-handed or switch-hit. This mattered because Jered Weaver was pitching, and everybody knew that Jered Weaver was lethal against righties but vulnerable to lefties, who hit .276/.335/.477 against Weaver that year. Against lefties that year, Weaver was a below-average pitcher. Against righties, he was an ace. Overall, he was not an ace.

The story of Jered Weaver’s ever-increasing success is a weird one, because against half the league Jered Weaver is exactly the same pitcher he has always been. Right-handed batters must just be baffled by this whole thing. OPS by righties against Weaver:

• 2009: .615
• 2010: .653
• 2011: .621
• 2012: .637

But against lefties, he has become something else.

• 2009: .812
• 2010: .593
• 2011: .578
• 2012: .479

To put that last number in perspective, Randy Johnson, who was so difficult to hit from the left side that superstar players refused the challenge, allowed a .571 OPS against lefties. He had two seasons with a lefty-opponents’ OPS lower than .479. (League-wide changes in run-scoring would apply here, but gimme this one. It’s Randy Johnson, for pete’s sake.) It’s not that Jered Weaver has had more success against lefties as he has improved; it's that his success, all of it, every bit of it, has come from his ability to get lefties out better than any $4 million-per-year LOOGY.

On Monday, Weaver pitched against the A’s. He allowed four hits, no walks, and struck out nine in a 117-pitch shutout. He got 17 swinging strikes, a season high. There were five lefties or switch-hitters in the lineup, and against Weaver they went 1-for-18, with a single. The best pitches this week come from those 18 at-bats.