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July 30, 2012

Value Picks

Second, Short, and Catcher for 7/30/12

by Josh Shepardson


Departures
My optimistic outlook for Gordon Beckham (Yahoo! 10%, ESPN 13%, CBS 46%) resulted in a 4-for-23 week at the dish with no pop or speed. He's making contact, with a contact rate of better than 90 percent in the last two weeks, but it hasn't been hard contact; he’s posted a paltry 8 percent line drive rate. Stephani Bee discussed Beckham as a change of scenery candidate in Wednesday's Lineup Card. Perhaps that is what it will take to get Beckham right, or perhaps there is no fixing Beckham, but for now, he doesn't need to be rostered in fantasy leagues.

With the 15th-highest ownership rate among catchers in ESPN leagues, Ryan Doumit (Yahoo! 41%, ESPN 25%, CBS 67%) no longer fits the spirit of this column, and thus we bid him farewell. In the last week he went 6-for-22, smacking one home run with two multi-hit efforts.

Last week's AL-only VP pick, Jean Segura (Yahoo! 0%, ESPN 0%, CBS 8%) was dealt to the Brewers as part of a package for Zack Greinke, and he was promptly optioned to the minors. He won't be able to help fantasy teams from the minors, so there is no reason to own him in redraft leagues for the time being.

A stunning ownership jump of 41 percent in ESPN leagues pushes Josh Rutledge (Yahoo! 13%, ESPN 43%, CBS 48%) out of his NL-only VP pick spot and out of the column altogether. He whacked two home runs and went 10-for-24 with four multi-hit games in the last week, and he has earned his ownership spike.

Hanging On
The Diamondbacks may only have a .500 record, but they find themselves in the playoff hunt nonetheless. They acquired Chris Johnson from the Astros on Sunday to attempt to shore up the hot corner, making it even more unlikely that they'd deal shortstop Stephen Drew (Yahoo! 21%, ESPN 15%, CBS 36%). That's good news for Drew, as there aren't many teams he could have been dealt to with friendlier home confines than Chase Field. Drew's season line is ugly—.203/.273/.266—and he didn't do much in the last week, but I maintain that his silly line drive rate of 40 percent is too good to ignore. He has yet to hit a home run, and it is hard to believe all of his fly balls will continue to stay in the yard. At some point, however, Drew has to start doing something or he simply isn't going to be worth rostering. Give him another week to turn his batted ball data into successful fantasy numbers.

Peter Gammons stated on MLB Network on Sunday evening that he did not believe the Padres would deal Chase Headley. They are not receiving offers in the neighborhood of what they expect in return for their talented young third baseman. That could delay Jedd Gyorko's (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 0%, CBS 10%) arrival in the big leagues. I do still expect to see him in the majors at some point this year, and there is still a chance that the Padres could get an unexpected offer for Headley that provides a clear path to a Gyorko promotion. He has cooled off considerably in his last 10 games, slashing .211/.302/.316 with just one home run, but his season line of .311/.374/.533 suggests he has nothing left to prove in the minors with the stick.

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<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (07/30)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Outfield ... (07/27)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Value Picks: First, Th... (07/31)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Seve... (07/30)

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