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July 28, 2012

BP Fantasy Podcast

Episode 14: The Next Youkilis

by Jason Collette and Paul Sporer

00:23 - The Next Youkilis
00:49 - housekeeping
1:50:50 -- Best reads: Paul's and Jason's
2:09:30 - we out
 
 
 

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Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here
Paul Sporer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Paul's other articles. You can contact Paul by clicking here

5 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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maxjusttyped

Rodney has clearly improved as a pitcher, but that doesn't necessarily mean there isn't luck involved. His 86.7% LOB% isn't sustainable. His .232 BABIP isn't sustainable. His 3.2 HR/FB rate is not sustainable. These numbers point to a likely regression, not that he's a bad pitcher. Although I did enjoy the podcast, like always, it was very informative.

Jul 28, 2012 21:48 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Paul Sporer
BP staff

I think it's dangerous to just say aw that's unsustainable, regression IS coming when it comes to relievers.

10 RPs throwing 50+ IP had 86% LOB or better last year. 9 in 2010 and 10 in 2009. Over the last three years combined, 4 reached the threshold. Norms don't apply to RPs.

A .232 BABIP is sustainable for an RP, especially in a single year. 17 hit that mark or better last year, including 3 guys w/sub .200. 11 hit the HR/FB mark including 5 at 2% or below and a pair who didn't allow a homer (Javier Lopez & Brad Ziegler).

Applying the regression marks of SPs to RPs is going leave you out in the cold on a lot of guys who put it together for a year.

Plus with Rodney, it's not like he hasn't always had really good stuff, he just hasn't been able to harness it. I get what you're saying and I'm glad you enjoy the show, I just get a little perturbed when it's assumed a player can't sustain a level. Now if someone has a .000 BABIP or 100% LOB%, sure, but the marks Rodney is putting up aren't unprecedented, especially in a single season sample.

Jul 29, 2012 16:58 PM
 
lipitorkid

I don't know if this is a known problem or not. But the in-browser player you use for the podcast doesn't work in Chrome. No matter where you start in the podcast after about 7-15 minutes it just stops and drops you off at the beginning.

Jul 29, 2012 07:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

strange - I don't have that issue and I use Chrome

Jul 29, 2012 17:01 PM
 
BP staff member Paul Sporer
BP staff

I hate to go NBC on you (as they have re: the Olympics), but I'm not having the same issue so perhaps it's something with your settings?

Jul 29, 2012 17:10 PM
 
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