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July 23, 2012

Value Picks

Second, Short, and Catcher for 7/23/12

by Josh Shepardson

Departures
My desire to feature someone else as this week's AL-only VP spelled the end for Brian Dozier (Yahoo! 2%, ESPN 1%, CBS 7%) being included in the column. Of course, he has done himself no favors to remain either. In the last seven days, Dozier has hit an ugly .185/.214/.185 with zero home runs and zero steals. The last 14 days weren't much better, as he hit .200/.263/.286 with one home run and zero stolen bases. That type of production, or better said, that lack of production simply isn't going to cut it, even in AL-only leagues.

With no rumors of a promotion and a slide in production in his last 10 games, Grant Green (Yahoo! 0%, ESPN 0%, CBS 3%) is no longer a worthwhile stash option. Should the bat heat back up, he could find himself back on AL-only league radars.

His stay was short as the NL-only VP pick; Logan Forsythe (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 1%, CBS 3%) was nothing more than a plug-and-play option while he was hitting for average. As I alluded to last week, his speed and power don't stand out in fantasy games, so he needs to hit for average to even be a fringe option in NL-only leagues. In the seven days prior to Sunday, Forsythe hit a paltry .214 with, unsurprisingly, no power or speed. He didn't help his cause Sunday, going 0-for-2, and while he has had some poor luck on his batted balls, it's safe to cut bait without fear of ruing the decision later.

Hanging On
The hot streak of Ryan Doumit (Yahoo! 30%, ESPN 10%, CBS 60%) had to come to an end at some point. BABIP regression was to be expected, but it is a rise in his swinging strike rate and, with it, a decrease in his contact rate that are of greater concern. He has been ultra aggressive and hasn't drawn a walk since July 3. His saving grace was a power explosion on Sunday. He smacked two home runs in a 3-for-4 effort against the Royals. If the home run power is coming around, Doumit can continue to be a fringe option in single-catcher mixed leagues of 12 teams or larger. His consistent at-bats will make him a safe second catcher the remainder of the year in two-catcher leagues even if he should go on a cold streak.

There is an argument to be made that Gordon Beckham (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 17%, CBS 52%) should fall in with the departures, but I'm willing to extend him another week of leash. He has gone a wretched 3-for-22 since last week's article and has seen his groundball rate rise. He has, however, made a ton of contact, striking out just three times since the All-Star break, two of which came in the first game back. If he's able to continue to make contact at a high rate and find that line drive swing he had as recently as last week, I like his odds of going on tear. It may not happen, as Beckham has repeatedly disappointed owners willing to give him another chance, but second base and the middle infield are bad enough that extending Beckham another week's leash could pay off.

Sticking Around
The Padres continue to get offensive production from the catching position of late thanks to the decision to turn the tools of ignorance over to Yasmani Grandal (Yahoo! 14%, ESPN 6%, CBS 41%). Grandal whacked his fifth home run of the season last week, and he also drew his first walk in the majors. He recorded at least one hit in three of five games, including two multi-hit efforts, and went 5-for-20 overall with a double and a home run last week. He's swinging at seemingly everything, and that will probably eventually be exploited by big league pitchers. His home ballpark will do his home run total no favors either, but for now, he's a solid second catching option in two-catcher mixed leagues.