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July 17, 2012

Western Front

First Win the Division, Then Puppet Show

by Geoff Young

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Do you realize how bad the National League West has been since May 27? This is an arbitrary date reflecting my desire to cast the division in its worst possible light, so probably not. But consider what the standings looked like at the start of that day:

Team

W

L

Pct

GB

RS

RA

Pythag

R/G

Dodgers

32

15

.681

213

164

.617

4.53

Giants

25

23

.521

7.5

196

195

.502

3.88

Diamondbacks

22

26

.458

10.5

201

217

.465

4.19

Rockies

17

29

.370

14.5

223

256

.437

4.85

Padres

17

32

.347

16.0

151

204

.366

3.08

This marks the Dodgers' largest lead of the year to date (July 15). It took them longer to build that lead than it did for them to lose it, but we're getting ahead of the story.

I've included runs scored per game for a reason, which will become evident in a bit. For now, just note that the Dodgers were awesome, the Rockies and Padres stunk, and the Giants and Diamondbacks were treading water with varying degrees of success.

The Dodgers, in fact, had the best record in MLB at this point. People were genuinely and legitimately—at least as legitimately as anyone can be after 47 games—excited about the team. But here's the thing about May 27. Four months of baseball remain on the schedule.

Year

Team

Through May 27

After May 27

Notes

W

L

Pct

W

L

Pct

2002

Red Sox

33

15

.688

60

54

.526

Tied for fifth-best record in AL, no playoffs

2003

Braves

35

17

.673

66

44

.600

Tied for best record in MLB, lost NLDS

2004

Angels

29

18

.617

63

52

.548

Tied for third best record in AL, lost ALDS

Red Sox

29

18

.617

69

46

.600

Second best record in AL, won WS

2005

White Sox

33

16

.673

66

47

.584

Best record in AL, won WS

2006

Tigers

35

14

.714

60

53

.531

Third-best record in AL, lost WS

2007

Red Sox

34

15

.694

62

51

.549

Tied for best record in MLB, won WS

2008

Cubs

31

21

.596

66

43

.606

Best record in NL, lost NLDS

Rays

31

21

.596

66

44

.600

Second-best record in AL, lost WS

2009

Dodgers

33

15

.688

62

52

.544

Best record in NL, lost NLCS

2010

Rays

33

15

.688

63

51

.553

Best record in AL, lost ALDS

2011

Phillies

32

19

.627

70

41

.631

Best record in MLB, lost NLDS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First, a not-so-brief aside about assumptions and process: The next paragraph originally began “Sometimes, this makes a difference; sometimes it doesn't.” I hypothesized that owning the best record in baseball less than a third of the way through the season wouldn't matter much at its end. This led me to the line of inquiry that generated the following table, which invalidates my original hypothesis in convincing fashion but which makes an important point nonetheless, albeit not the point I'd expected it to make.

This seems like a long time (and it is), but historically, those remaining four months have told us little about such teams that we didn't already know. Let’s take a closer look at the teams with MLB's best record through May 27 over the past decade:

Teams that have dominated through May 27 of a given year over the past decade have continued to play well throughout the season and—except for the 2002 Red Sox—into the postseason. Five have reached the World Series, and three of those have won it.

The last team with the best record in baseball through May 27 to finish with a losing record was the 1995 Phillies. But thanks to a work stoppage, they had played just 28 games at the time, so we didn't have as strong a sense of how good or bad they were. (The Indians, who had the second-best record at the time—and the best Pythagorean record—went on to lead MLB with a ridiculous .694 WPct.)

The 1982 White Sox went 59-61 after starting 28-14, but that still makes for an overall winning record. They're the last team in a non-strike year to play below .500 after owning the best record in MLB through May 27. The Dodgers did the same in 1981, another strike-plagued season, but went on to win the World Series.

The last team with the best record in baseball through May 27 to finish with a losing record in a non-strike year was the 1973 White Sox. They jumped out to a 25-14 start before going 52-71 the rest of the way.

A briefer aside that is irrelevant but somewhat amusing: The 1973 White Sox featured a 21-year-old rookie who played left field and first base, and who went on to enjoy a fine big-league career. His name was Jerry Hairston Sr., and his son, Jerry Jr., plays for the 2012 Dodgers.

Here's a more detailed look at how the teams with the best record in baseball through May 27 from 1973 to 2011 did:

  • Record through May 27: 1,261-595 (.679 WPct)
  • Record after May 27: 2,650-2,012 (.568)
  • Overall record: 3911-2607 (.600)
  • Had a winning record after May 27: 37/41 (90.2%)
  • Finished with a winning record overall: 39/41 (95.1%)
  • Finished with the best record in baseball: 15/41 (36.6%)
  • Reached the postseason: 31/40 (77.5%)
  • Reached the World Series: 16/40 (40.0%)
  • Won the World Series: 9/40 (22.5%)

Note that strike-shortened seasons (1981, 1994, 1995) are included in winning percentages, but 1994 is excluded from postseason because there was none that year (let me take this opportunity to thank MLB on behalf of Expos fans everywhere).

The Dodgers, incidentally, once owned the first two months of the season. Between 1974 and 1983, they had MLB's best record through May 27 five times. They've done it twice since: once in 2009 and again this year.

So my alternate point—in light of, shall we say, reality—is that if the Dodgers fail to make the playoffs this year after their hot start, they will have accomplished something remarkable. Yes, they have been without the services of Matt Kemp and, to a lesser degree, Andre Ethier, but such are the dangers when one builds one's team around two star players and then supplements that with marginal talent:

Players

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

HR

Kemp and Ethier

473

.320

.391

.567

23

Everyone else

2,893

.238

.305

.330

30

Backup plan? What backup plan?

Now you know why I included runs per game in the very first table. Here's how the NL West has fared since May 27:

Team

W

L

Pct

GB

RS

RA

Pythag

R/G

Giants

24

17

.585

153

156

.491

3.73

Diamondbacks

20

20

.500

3.5

177

163

.538

4.43

Padres

19

22

.463

5.0

169

187

.454

4.12

Rockies

17

25

.405

7.5

202

238

.426

4.81

Dodgers

16

27

.372

9.0

129

173

.369

3.00

The Diamondbacks were my preseason pick to win the division. With the Dodgers' help, they have turned this into a three-team race (well, they had when I started this article; the Snakes were a half game back before being swept by the Cubs coming out of the All-Star break). Does Arizona have enough firepower to sustain this? If Justin Upton and Chris Young remember how to hit baseballs, sure, but that's a story for another day.

Young is batting just .149/.245/.277 in 159 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list on May 18. Upton? I'm not sure what his deal is, but he should be hitting better than the aforementioned Jerry Hairston Jr.:

Player

Age

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

TAv

Justin Upton

24

343

.264

.347

.388

.267

Jerry Hairston Jr.

36

205

.300

.373

.428

.295

Perhaps it's my limited imagination, but there isn't a universe in which this makes any sense to me. What's scary is that Upton, as we learned last year, is capable of great things. He could stop slumming it at any moment and carry a team on his back for weeks or months at a time.

Of course, Kemp is capable of even greater things as long as he stays healthy. And the Dodgers need him to do just that, as they easily have the worst offense in baseball since May 27 (Baltimore is second, having scored 11 more runs in three fewer games since then). Their scoring is down by a run and a half per game since their hot start, and they are averaging more than a full run less per game than the punchless Padres during that same period.

Kemp and Ethier are now healthy, which should help. Still, dropping two out of three at home (including once courtesy of an epic brain cramp by closer Kenley Jansen) against said Padres coming out of the All-Star break isn't the sort of thing the Dodgers can afford to do.

The Giants, meanwhile, have hung around long enough to overcome a once-daunting lead. They aren't playing great baseball, but in the NL West this year, greatness may not be required. Tres Compañeros have regressed but are still doing better than anyone could have envisioned. Pablo Sandoval is being Pablo Sandoval, when healthy. Brandon Belt has overcome Bruce Bochy's extreme aversion to young position players and is enjoying the breakout campaign that I predicted/guessed at back in February.

San Francisco has gained nine games in the standings in less than two months despite the fact that two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum owns the fourth-worst ERA in MLB among qualifiers and closer Brian Wilson hasn't pitched since April 12. The Giants are, to use a hackneyed but honest phrase, just winning.

Here is one final table to illustrate the difference between the NL West through May 27 and since:

Team

WPct

Pythag

R/G

Through

Since

Diff

Through

Since

Diff

Through

Since

Diff

Giants

.521

.585

+.064

.502

.491

-.011

3.88

3.73

-0.15

Diamondbacks

.458

.500

+.042

.465

.538

+.073

4.19

4.43

+0.24

Padres

.347

.463

+.116

.366

.454

+.088

3.08

4.12

+1.04

Rockies

.370

.405

+.035

.437

.426

-.011

4.85

4.81

-0.04

Dodgers

.681

.372

-.309

.617

.369

-.248

4.53

3.00

-1.53

Regression, as they say, is a harsh mistress. In the NL West, it ain't so easy on the eyes, either.

The Dodgers and their two-man offense jumped out to a huge lead in a relatively short time. Thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness, they let it slip away in even less time. The Giants and Diamondbacks have taken advantage of this despite not playing as well as they can. The division is weak, although not weak enough for the Padres and Rockies to do much other than play spoiler.

Welcome to the second half. Get pumped.

5 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Menthol

Great to see the Giants and Dodgers duking it out again. Just like old times.

Beat LA!

Jul 17, 2012 08:15 AM
rating: 0
 
woodson
(802)

I saw the Padres and Dodgers at Petco on May 16 and without Kemp in the lineup I was struck by (other than Either) there was absolutely no one that scared me. Really anemic! As a long-time Padres fan, I obviously need no excuses for saying bad things about the Dodgers, but I realized then that they were probably a mirage and the real truth is just how bad the whole of the NL West is this year.

Jul 17, 2012 09:42 AM
rating: 0
 
Beau Giles

The early season schedule has been overly friendly to the Dodgers so far. They've played 54 games against teams with a losing record (the Yankees have only played 14). Also they've played only one series in the Eastern Time Zone, against the Phillies. After this current road trip to Atlanta and Philadelphia the Giants won't have to travel that far east again this season.

Jul 17, 2012 10:23 AM
rating: 3
 
rweiler

The Dodgers were the beneficiaries of a really easy schedule to start the season, as the Giants were to a lessor extent. That, combined with a healthy Matt Kemp, was enough to win games. When Kemp got injured and the competition got better, they stopped winning. The Giants R/RA differential vs their actual results is largely the result of blowups by Lincecum and Zito. When they lose, they lose big. When they win, it is usually by 1 or 2 runs. As for Belt, he should probably be leading off on the 2012 Giants at least until he starts hitting for power on a regular basis. However Bochy doesn't put much stock in having high OBP hitters at the top of the line up.

Jul 17, 2012 10:25 AM
rating: 2
 
juiced

The Giants possess some strengths now that may allow them to overcome the regression predicted by the above tables. Sandoval is now healthy, and Belt is finally getting regular playing time while Huff is not. The Blanco illusion has disappeared allowing them to be realistic and work Christian in against lefties and maybe even motivating them to seek an upgrade by the trade deadline (thanks again Mr. Sabean for re-upping AFfeldt and Lopez' 15 million in options, while passing on Carlos Beltran). Barring injury, Lincecum can only improve as his FIP suggests. Unlike the Dodgers they dont rely on a few stars, they are deeper and less susceptible to injury-related dropoffs.

Thus, Melky could regress a bit to the mean and they are still in a decent position to win at the same rate. I have my doubts about Vogelsong's sustainability but he's defied the odds so far. Remember, Bruce Bochy's teams historically outperform pythagorus due to his excellent bullpen leveraging/management.

By contrast the Dodgers have gotten some really lucky onbase performances from the likes of Ellis and Ellis, Herrera and Hairston. Capuano is over his head, and it seems like Janssen has pitched every day. The Dbacks are dealing with the loss of Hudson and Kennedy's return to normalcy. I certainly fear them more going forward with the expectation that Upton should improve.

It's still early, but it's the Giants division to lose.

Jul 17, 2012 15:13 PM
rating: 1
 
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