Do you realize how bad the National League West has been since May 27? This is an arbitrary date reflecting my desire to cast the division in its worst possible light, so probably not. But consider what the standings looked like at the start of that day:
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I saw the Padres and Dodgers at Petco on May 16 and without Kemp in the lineup I was struck by (other than Either) there was absolutely no one that scared me. Really anemic! As a long-time Padres fan, I obviously need no excuses for saying bad things about the Dodgers, but I realized then that they were probably a mirage and the real truth is just how bad the whole of the NL West is this year.
The early season schedule has been overly friendly to the Dodgers so far. They've played 54 games against teams with a losing record (the Yankees have only played 14). Also they've played only one series in the Eastern Time Zone, against the Phillies. After this current road trip to Atlanta and Philadelphia the Giants won't have to travel that far east again this season.
The Dodgers were the beneficiaries of a really easy schedule to start the season, as the Giants were to a lessor extent. That, combined with a healthy Matt Kemp, was enough to win games. When Kemp got injured and the competition got better, they stopped winning. The Giants R/RA differential vs their actual results is largely the result of blowups by Lincecum and Zito. When they lose, they lose big. When they win, it is usually by 1 or 2 runs. As for Belt, he should probably be leading off on the 2012 Giants at least until he starts hitting for power on a regular basis. However Bochy doesn't put much stock in having high OBP hitters at the top of the line up.
The Giants possess some strengths now that may allow them to overcome the regression predicted by the above tables. Sandoval is now healthy, and Belt is finally getting regular playing time while Huff is not. The Blanco illusion has disappeared allowing them to be realistic and work Christian in against lefties and maybe even motivating them to seek an upgrade by the trade deadline (thanks again Mr. Sabean for re-upping AFfeldt and Lopez' 15 million in options, while passing on Carlos Beltran). Barring injury, Lincecum can only improve as his FIP suggests. Unlike the Dodgers they dont rely on a few stars, they are deeper and less susceptible to injury-related dropoffs.
Thus, Melky could regress a bit to the mean and they are still in a decent position to win at the same rate. I have my doubts about Vogelsong's sustainability but he's defied the odds so far. Remember, Bruce Bochy's teams historically outperform pythagorus due to his excellent bullpen leveraging/management.
By contrast the Dodgers have gotten some really lucky onbase performances from the likes of Ellis and Ellis, Herrera and Hairston. Capuano is over his head, and it seems like Janssen has pitched every day. The Dbacks are dealing with the loss of Hudson and Kennedy's return to normalcy. I certainly fear them more going forward with the expectation that Upton should improve.
It's still early, but it's the Giants division to lose.
Transaction Analysis: ... (07/17)
5 comments have been left for this article. 
Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 7/17/1...
Surprise Me!
Great to see the Giants and Dodgers duking it out again. Just like old times.
Beat LA!