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June 29, 2012

What the Contenders Need

NL Central

by R.J. Anderson, Jeff Euston and Kevin Goldstein

With a little over a month to go until the non-waiver trading deadline, talks between teams are heating up. In a seven-part series appearing over the coming week, several BP authors will be covering the needs, potential fits, and more for the contenders in each division, as well as a rundown of the top 10 player trade targets. Today, we take a look at the NL Central.

Cincinnati Reds

Playoff Odds
Opening Day: 53%
High: 82% (6/17)
Low: 35% (4/14)
Current: 70%

Payroll picture
Walt Jocketty made a nine-figure bet this spring when he signed Joey Votto to a record $225 million extension running through 2023. A week later, Brandon Phillips signed for $72.5 million, and suddenly the Reds had leapfrogged to the top of the NL Central with $255 million in payroll commitments for 2013-17.

The Reds opened 2012 with a franchise-record $87 million payroll, but Cincinnati’s financial situation is not unmanageable. Jocketty has 10 players signed for 2013 at a cost of about $70 million, with his current roster intact except for Scott Rolen, whose deal expires this season. —Jeff Euston

General manager’s track record
Jocketty has as much experience with blockbuster July trades as any general manager in the division. When Jocketty ran point in St. Louis, he consummated July trades that netted superstars like Scott Rolen, Larry Walker and Mark McGwire. Since joining Cincinnati, Jocketty’s deadline deals have been less eventful, but his penchant for the big deal was again on display during the winter when he acquired Mat Latos.

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14 comments have been left for this article.

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code of conduct

(27400)

I know Billy Hamilton is an exciting talent because he is unique, but is he really untradable? For all the value he may have as a .320/.370/.450 hitter with 80 steals, he's not a five tool middle of the lineup force. Other clubs have been recently willing to trade better hitting prospects (Montero the most obvious example).

Is the idea that Hamilton is more valuable, that he's uniquely valuable, or that the Reds don't need to acquire the kind of big league talent they would expect to receive in exchange for him?

Jun 29, 2012 07:39 AM

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captfadeaway

(57551)

As in the case of Aroldis Chapman, it seems that the buzz-generating value of Billy Hamilton is equal to (if not greater) than his value as a player for the Reds. Even with the recent flurry of coverage acknowledging the God-like talent of Joey Votto, Chapman and Hamilton get more ink than anybody else in the organization. For a club looking to someday rival the attendance success of the St. Louis Cardinals, the chance to add one more charismatic star on the cheap probably makes Hamilton untradable.

Jun 29, 2012 16:10 PM

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nschneider

(20893)

I love the playoff odds chart for the Astros. They've been flat-lining since day one.

Jun 29, 2012 08:01 AM

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cubfan131

(31594)

I was going to comment that the Reds and Cubs colors are too close together to be able to tell them apart. But then I realized the Cubs could be white and we'd know what their odds were.

Jun 29, 2012 09:20 AM

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drawbb

(3190)

The color confusion is actually a legitimate complaint, and this isn't the first division profile in which it's been a problem. Seems like there are plenty of colors that could be used to avoid any issue...

Jun 30, 2012 04:10 AM

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MaineSkin

(65713)

Remember, Hamilton is hitting where Gary Brown hit next year and since I've heard he's skinnier than DGordon, I doubt he has a VColeman year coming in the future.
Cincy has the bats to win, now, and if they elevated the pressure off of Latos by sending Hamilton and Cingrani to Mil for Grienke, I see the Reds being a force in the playoffs with a Grienke, Cueto and Latos threesome.

Jun 29, 2012 16:23 PM

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captfadeaway

(57551)

That's not a bad idea, really, as far as winning this year is concerned. What probably halts that, though, is that Greinke's likely to sign elsewhere after October. Those massive Votto and Phillips contracts are decent bets, but if the TV money doesn't balloon like everyone's expecting it to, the Reds could end up financially hamstrung.

I don't expect Hamilton to perform in the bigs like he's doing in the minors, but if he comes reasonably close, he helps Cincinnati on the field and at the ticket booth for years. I think Jocketty will hang on to him for that reason alone.

Jun 29, 2012 16:40 PM

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ddufourlogger

(6816)

I have thought the same thing actually....that Greinke would be a great get for the Redlegs. You'd have arguably the best staff in the NL, perhaps only rivaled by Philly. And with Latos and Cueto signed for a few more years, relatively reasonably, there's at least a CHANCE that Greinke could be kept even at something close to market rate for an ace. Not likely, I would agree, but at least a conversational possibility. He does prefer to stay out of the spotlight, so the big market players are unlikely to be attractive to him.

I've also thought that it's time for KC to make the leap next year and bring their homegrown kid back to ace that staff. They've got the young position players, but need that legit #1 to become contenders in a winnable AL Central. Royals put $100M on the table for 5 years and he might jump at it.

Jul 02, 2012 13:55 PM

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Ric Size

(42432)

Could someone please explain to me how Pittsburgh's playoff odds are 7%, when they are 1/2 game ahead of St. Louis, whose playoff odds are at 72%. We're nearly half way through the season. I'm not being sarcastic; I would really be interested in the rationale.

Jun 29, 2012 19:01 PM

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dhcohen

(52491)

Must be run differential. Pittsburgh is at +3, St. Louis at +60.

Jun 29, 2012 23:08 PM

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Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

(37618)

Take a look at our Adjusted Standings and Playoff Odds reports. The Adjusted Standings report looks at St. Louis' underlying stats and sees the best team in the National League. It looks at the Pirates and sees a team that's played like it should be 33-42. The Playoff Odds report shows a future expected winning percentage of .564 for the Cardinals and .459 for Pittsburgh, as I write this, so that's where the difference in the odds comes from.

Jun 29, 2012 23:22 PM

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Ric Size

(42432)

Okay, here's my follow-up question. Presuming both teams run differentials stay the same as well as their position in the standings, at what point in the season do the odds even out?

Jun 30, 2012 09:26 AM

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cams322

(67030)

Assuming the run differentials stay the same, the odds even out when the pirates real record is further ahead of the cardinals real record than the differential between 564 and 459 winning percentages in the remaining games can make up.

Hoping the pirates hang in there until the end, it would make a great story. I just wouldn't bet on it.

Jul 01, 2012 09:36 AM

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David Jackson

(68013)

Man, talking about trading Hamilton and Gast makes me sad.

David Blaine couldn't come up with a pickoff move as good as John Gast has. With Molina's arm and Hamilton's speed, there's a game in 2014 where it all comes together. It'd be amazing. I could just watch that for an hour.

Jul 03, 2012 12:05 PM

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