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June 19, 2012

Fantasy Beat

The Magnificence of R.A. Dickey

by Jason Collette

He went for $2 in the Tout Wars Mixed.  He went for $5 in Tout Wars NL draft while going for $4 in LABR NL (purchased by Derek Carty in both instances). Yet, there is no hotter fantasy baseball asset in leagues right now than R.A. Dickey, who currently stands 11-1 with a 2.00 ERA, 103 strikeouts, and just 21 walks in 99 innings of work. Those are the kind of numbers people pay $24 to roster Cole Hamels for, yet Dickey owners are getting it for a 75 percent discount amidst arguably the best story going in baseball today. Dickey’s last six starts encompass 48 2/3 innings of work in which he has allowed just 21 hits, one earned run, five walks, and 63 strikeouts. Those are not even Hamels-like numbers; those are more like Koufax numbers.

Let the leaderboard on the image below soak in for a minute:


(ESPN/‚ÄčSportsCenter‚Äč)

The question is, how is this happening?

Dickey threw his second consecutive one-hitter last night, holding the Orioles to just a Wilson Betemit single five days after holding the Rays to a questionable infield single by B.J. Upton. Last night’s outing was wrapping up as Kevin Goldstein and I were recording a segment for this week’s Towers of Power Fantasy Hour podcast. We had some comments on the podcast that you’ll have to tune in to listen to, but Kevin tweeted some additional comments out last night that sum up my thoughts as well:

If we go back and look at the last two seasons for Dickey with the Mets, there were two attractive parts of his profile: his ERA and his WHIP. He had ERAs of 2.84 and 3.28 and WHIPs of 1.19 and 1.23. His strikeout rates were below 6.0 both seasons, but his walk rates were 2.2 and 2.3, which are very surprising rates for a guy that relies on such an unpredictable pitch.

In hindsight, his player profile this year is very enlightening:

With Tim Wakefield sailing into the sunset, it's good to have a knuckleballer still around, especially one who seems to be in the prime of his craft. Dickey's impossible to scout and maybe to project, but unlike many who depend on the pitch (he throws it around 80 percent of the time), he rarely has those off days when he just gets hammered. He didn't give up more than four earned runs in any of his last 24 starts, and he had a 2.87 ERA after the All-Star break. His $9.25 million owed for the next two years make him one of the biggest bargains in the clubhouse.

That means, dating back to his win against the Yankees on May 20 of last season, Dickey has allowed more than four earned runs just once in his last 38 starts. Compare that to the likes of Tim Wakefield, who seemingly gave up four or five earned runs every other start in his later years. In those 38 starts, Dickey has gone 18-9 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP while striking out 202 batters and walking just 57 in 256 1/3 innings of work. The ERA and WHIP help was there, but the strikeouts jumping from the mid-5.0s to one per inning? Not even his agent could have promised that kind of performance in 2012.

According to Statcorner.com, Dickey has been above league average in a few areas in his time with the Mets. The league throws strikes approximately 63 percent of the time while Dickey has found the zone just under 69 percent of the time. His called strike rate has been just above league average, and his swinging strike rate was just below league average until this season, when it jumped to 12.9 percent after sitting at 7.4 percent in 2010-2011. The table below shows how Dickey has performed in other areas (data via statcorner.com):

STAT

2010-2011

LEAGUE AVERAGE

2012

First Pitch Strikes

49%

45%

53%

Zone Swings & Misses

14%

12%

23%

Out of Zone Swings

32%

31%

37%

Out of Zone Misses

23%

28%

29%

Dickey is throwing more first pitch strikes than he has in the past but is also getting many more swings-and-misses both in and out of the zone than in the past, as we might expect from someone with a knuckleball. What you likely did not expect is that Dickey’s knuckleball has been the second most lethal pitch, in terms of whiff rates, thrown by any major league starting pitcher. Thanks to Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis for putting that data together for me at the last minute.

Dan Haren’s cut fastball is the toughest pitch to make contact with in baseball (minimum 500 pitches thrown); batters have whiffed 31 percent of the time when he throws it. Dickey’s knuckleball is next on the list at 29 percent with batters coming up empty on 163 of the 570 swings against the pitch. Justin Verlander is the only other pitcher who has been able to get at least 100 swings-and-misses on a pitch this season, and he trails Dickey by 59 whiffs at 104. Here are the top ten whiff rates by pitchers that have thrown at least 500 of those pitches this season.

Brooks Baseball shows that Dickey has thrown his knuckleball 78 percent of the time since 2007 while throwing his two-seam fastball 21 percent of the time, mixing in a miniscule handful of curves and changeups. This season, he has spiked his knuckleball usage to 86 percent while throwing the fastball 13 percent of the time and throwing what has been classified as a changeup 10 times total.

One real improvement so far has come against left-handed hitters. From 2010 to 2011, left-handed batters hit .246/.306/.391 against Dickey in 661 plate appearances while striking out 19 percent of the time. This season, the slash line is not terribly different (.234/.291/.372), but batters are striking out 33 percent of the time. Before Dickey’s start against Tampa Bay, Mark Simon of ESPN noted that the knuckle-baller had begun working more on the outer third of the plate to lefties and letting the knuckleball do what it does; the results have been fantastic since. Lefties were hitting just .151 against Dickey over the five starts prior to the back-to-back one-hitters, and Betemit was the only left-handed batter to get a hit over the last two games.

You can go look at Dickey’s player card if you want to see how much fun PITCHf/x data can be for knuckleball pitchers. A cursory look at the year-to-year stuff seems to show that he is throwing fewer dead ducks, if you will, but it is tough to wrap my head around the fact that someone has learned how to control the most uncontrollable pitch in baseball this well. The real truth lies somewhere in between an indoor batting cage in Atlanta and the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro, but the fact is that Dickey has delivered more value to this point of the season than any fantasy player could have imagined.

The guy is already without a UCL in his elbow, so his injury risk may be muted, especially compared to the real risk: that Dickey suddenly loses the magic he seems to have over the knuckleball, loses the strikeouts, and returns to being a three-category contributor rather than the four-category stud he is right now.

I will use one more KG tweet to sum up my entire feelings on Dickey:


Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  One-hitter,  Mets,  Ra Dickey,  Knuckleball

24 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

apbadogs

Watching the game last night I heard the announcers say he can throw his knuckler anywhere between 60 and 80 MPH, that has to be a big reason for his success. Haven't most knuckleballers in the past thrown it at 1 speed?

Jun 19, 2012 05:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

His seasonal velocity shows a large concentration of his pitches in the mid to upper 70's. Last night, he threw 3 pitches below 74 mph. Last night, he was also once again working successfully away from LH hitters.

In all, I think the biggest difference between him and the others is he is somehow controlling the pitch better. Others have been more of a let if fly type and let the wind and gravity take its course but he's somehow putting it where he wants it to go more often than others.

Jun 19, 2012 05:57 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I had heard a few times that he has made an effort to throw his knuckler harder this year.

"Dickey credited a harder knuckleball - thrown in the low 80s mph, up from the mid-70s - with giving him a later, better break on the pitch.

''I feel comfortable with where I am with the pitch,'' he said. ''And look: It's a knuckleball. It can be fickle.''"

http://m.yesnetwork.com/news/article/2012/06/07/32930894

Jun 19, 2012 09:48 AM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

The SNY guys have said he throws two different knucklers and a fastball.

Jun 19, 2012 05:16 AM
rating: 1
 
hyprvypr

When you watch him it's evident that he's throwing at least two types of knuckles and a fastball/knuckle, if that exists. Basically it looks like he's throwing a slower/more knuckling ball(a change-up knuckle?) and then one thrown with as much velocity as he can muster. I don't think it matters if the hitters know which because they both move so erratically.

Whatever the case, it's another part of the game that is wonderful. You can 'play' the game in a number of ways and all of them can work. Drag-bunts, working walks, stealing bases, crushing doubles and homers, advancing runners...

What a spectacularly enjoyable game we all have to watch...

Jun 19, 2012 11:12 AM
rating: 2
 
pobothecat

I think hyprvypr is on the right track here. And I'd dare to say he's throwing straight "fastballs" and "changes" at knuckler-like speeds.

Is anyone really qualified to chart R.A. Dickey's pitches right now?

Jun 19, 2012 11:41 AM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

"Lefties were hitting just .151 against Dickey over the five starts prior to the back-to-back one-hitters, and Betemit was the only left-handed batter to get a hit over the last two games."
Also worth mentioning - BJ Upton is the only right handed batter to get a hit off of Dickey in the last two games. I am honored to share two initials with the man.

Jun 19, 2012 13:47 PM
rating: 1
 
mbyrnes
(354)

How does his season compare to Tim Wakefield's run in 1995? Through his first 17 starts (including one on two days rest), Wake was 14-1, 1.65, with only 3 starts if less than 7 innings. Then the wheels fell off and he would up the season 16-8, 2.95.

Jun 19, 2012 15:34 PM
rating: 1
 
buffum
(458)

What were Wakefield's K/9 and BB/9 numbers through that stretch, out of curiosity? Are there BABiP numbers? I wonder how much the wheels came off and how "lucky" he'd gotten to that point.

Jun 19, 2012 19:47 PM
rating: 0
 
buffum
(458)

(Note: I am aware that Wakefield is one of those pitchers that consistently confounded BABiP.)

Jun 19, 2012 19:47 PM
rating: 0
 
BJohannsen

42 consecutive scoreless innings, by my count. (Well, one unearned run, guess that's not "scoreless", bust still impressive.)

Jun 19, 2012 18:35 PM
rating: 0
 
Dodger300

I predict that during the off-season many pitchers may decide to climb up Mt. Kilimanjaro to breath its rarefied air.

Jun 20, 2012 03:50 AM
rating: 2
 
amazin_mess

He is unfair for hitters right now. The movement he's getting in the strikezone is ridiculous.

Jun 20, 2012 03:55 AM
rating: 0
 
Dodger300

"BrooksBaseball shows that Dickey has thrown his knuckleball 78 percent of the time throughout his career... This season, he has spiked his knuckleball usage to 86 percent"

Dickey did not begin throwing the knuckleball in the majors until his one appearance in 2006. Thus, it is misleading to try to make a point by contrasting this year to his career totals dating back to 2001, as it completely takes things out of context.

Of course, by definition Dickey MUST throw the knuckleball more now than than throughout his career, since he hasn't thrown it throughout his entire career.

Jun 20, 2012 04:07 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

BrooksBaseball only shows data back to 2008 so their data is correct while my qualifier was not.

Jun 20, 2012 05:10 AM
 
Dodger300

Thank you for the clarification.

Jun 20, 2012 12:18 PM
rating: 0
 
Dodger300

I waited to allow you some time to change your qualifier in the article so that it is correct, Jason, and I am disappointed that you failed to do so.

Accuracy has certainly never been a strength of yours, as we have discussed previously. However, once you have become aware of a mistake the right thing to do is to fix it, as other BP writers often do.

Many readers will only see the article and not the comments, so without correcting the mistake you will have knowingly misled them.

Jun 21, 2012 09:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

Please focus your further comments on the article itself rather than the author. Complaints should be filed using the contact us link at the bottom of the page.

I do not have direct publishing rights nor do I have the ability to make my own edits. A request has been submitted.

Thank you for your feedback on the piece and I hope that you learned something from it.

Jun 21, 2012 10:17 AM
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Fixed.

Jun 21, 2012 10:21 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I'm not sure that first paragraph is necessary. I'm sure dodger300 knows where the Contact Us link is and that kind of line about how to file complaints or refraining from talking about the author just increases the tension. One of the many things nice about the BP Community is it's always been "no holds barred" where people can talk about anything, including authors, issues with site quality and content, etc. This incident is surely not the touchiest subject to appear on BP.

What you said in your second paragraph should have been a sufficient explanation.

Jun 21, 2012 11:35 AM
rating: 0
 
Dodger300

Thanks for fixing the article, Ben. And thanks for your common sense comment, Richard.

Most BP writers seem to understand that they are writing for a knowledgeable audience of paid subscribers. They appreciate any corrections and/or input as part of a team effort to get things right and move the ball forward.

They realize that while mistakes will surely happen, these are not really an embarrassment or a big deal. Just acknowledge the mistake, correct things and move on.

Perhaps are inclined to become defensive at times, and perhaps even lash out at a subscriber.

There are lots of different personalities here, but BP is a great place to come.

Jun 21, 2012 20:49 PM
rating: 0
 
Dodger300

Thank you for your feedback on my comments and I hope that you learned something from them.

Jun 21, 2012 20:50 PM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

Well its likely a given next time R.A. faces the Nats - Davey Boy will have the umpire crew do a strip search at the mound.

If you don't know R.A.'s background - this is an absolute great story - he is a guy you can root for.

Jun 20, 2012 08:58 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Dickey's been a very good pitcher for the last two years and he was a late starter in pitching. I am of the inkling to think this increased K/9 rate is at least somewhat sustainable.

Jun 20, 2012 20:56 PM
rating: 0
 
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