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March 25, 2003

Surveying the Authors

Preseason Predictions

by Baseball Prospectus

Well, it's that time of year again--the time for Baseball Prospectus authors to emerge from out of their respective caves, and provide readers with further evidence that they know absolutely nothing about this game they call "base ball." In other words, it's time for the annual set of Preseason Predictions.

For this survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering--among other things--divisional standings, postseason standings, and end-of-season awards. Later this week, a Roundtable discussion will run in this space, discussing the predictions seen below, and probably a bunch of other topics as well. Enjoy.

National League

National League East

BP Author        First     Second    Third    Fourth   Fifth
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower       Braves    Phillies  Mets     Expos    Marlins
Will Carroll     Phillies  Braves    Expos    Mets     Marlins
Jeff Hildebrand  Braves    Phillies  Mets     Expos    Marlins
Gary Huckabay    Phillies  Braves    Expos    Mets     Marlins
Jonah Keri       Phillies  Braves    Expos    Mets     Marlins
Mat Olkin        Phillies  Expos     Braves   Mets     Marlins
Doug Pappas      Braves    Phillies  Mets     Expos    Marlins
Keith Scherer    Phillies  Braves    Marlins  Expos    Mets
Joe Sheehan      Phillies  Braves    Mets     Expos    Marlins
Nate Silver      Phillies  Braves    Expos    Marlins  Mets
Greg Spira       Braves    Phillies  Mets     Expos    Marlins
Ryan Wilkins     Phillies  Braves    Mets     Expos    Marlins
Derek Zumsteg    Phillies  Braves    Expos    Marlins  Mets
Consensus: (1) Phillies, (2) Braves, (3) Mets, (4) Expos, (5) Marlins

National League Central

BP Author        First   Second   Third    Fourth   Fifth    Sixth
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower       Cards   Cubs     Astros   Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Will Carroll     Reds    Cubs     Pirates  Cards    Astros   Brewers
Jeff Hildebrand  Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Gary Huckabay    Cubs    Astros   Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Jonah Keri       Astros  Cards*   Cubs     Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Mat Olkin        Astros  Cards    Cubs     Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Doug Pappas      Cards   Astros   Cubs     Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Keith Scherer    Cubs    Astros*  Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Joe Sheehan      Reds    Cubs*    Cards    Pirates  Astros   Brewers
Nate Silver      Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Greg Spira       Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Ryan Wilkins     Astros  Cubs*    Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Derek Zumsteg    Astros  Cards    Cubs     Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Consensus: (1) Astros, (2) Cubs, (3) Cardinals, (4) Reds, (5) Pirates, (6) Brewers

National League West

BP Author        First    Second    Third    Fourth   Fifth
-------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower       D'backs  Giants*   Rockies  Dodgers  Padres  
Will Carroll     Giants   D'backs*  Dodgers  Padres   Rockies 
Jeff Hildebrand  Dodgers  Giants*   D'backs  Padres   Rockies 
Gary Huckabay    D'backs  Giants*   Padres   Dodgers  Rockies 
Jonah Keri       Giants   D'backs   Dodgers  Rockies  Padres  
Mat Olkin        D'backs  Giants*   Dodgers  Rockies  Padres  
Doug Pappas      Giants   D'backs*  Dodgers  Padres   Rockies 
Keith Scherer    D'backs  Rockies   Giants   Dodgers  Padres  
Joe Sheehan      Giants   Dodgers   D'backs  Padres   Rockies 
Nate Silver      Giants   D'backs*  Rockies  Dodgers  Padres  
Greg Spira       Giants   D'backs*  Rockies  Dodgers  Padres  
Ryan Wilkins     Giants   D'backs   Rockies  Dodgers  Padres
Derek Zumsteg    Giants   D'backs*  Dodgers  Rockies  Padres
Consensus: (1) Giants, (2) Diamondbacks, (3) Dodgers, (4) Rockies, (5) Padres

Postseason

                                        NL World Series
BP Author       NLCS Representatives    Representative
-------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Diamondbacks, Braves    Diamondbacks
Will Carroll    Diamondbacks, Reds      Diamondbacks
Jeff Hildebrand Dodgers, Giants         Giants
Gary Huckabay   Cubs, Giants            Giants
Jonah Keri      Cardinals, Astros       Astros
Mat Olkin       Diamondbacks, Astros    Astros
Doug Pappas     Diamondbacks, Giants    Giants
Keith Scherer   Astros, Cubs            Astros
Joe Sheehan     Phillies, Giants        Giants
Nate Silver     Diamondbacks, Phillies  Phillies
Greg Spira      Diamondbacks, Braves    Diamondbacks
Ryan Wilkins    Phillies, Giants        Phillies
Derek Zumsteg   Diamondbacks, Giants    Giants
NL Awards / Miscellaneous
BP Author       NL MVP          Cy Young Award
----------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Barry Bonds     Randy Johnson   
Will Carroll    Barry Bonds     Randy Johnson
Jeff Hildebrand Barry Bonds     Greg Maddux
Gary Huckabay   Barry Bonds     Mark Prior
Jonah Keri      Lance Berkman   Randy Johnson
Mat Olkin       Vlad Guerrero   Randy Johnson
Doug Pappas     Barry Bonds     Randy Johnson
Keith Scherer   Sammy Sosa      Mark Prior
Joe Sheehan     Vlad Guerrero   Mark Prior
Nate Silver     Barry Bonds     Curt Schilling
Greg Spira      Barry Bonds     Randy Johnson
Ryan Wilkins    Barry Bonds     Mark Prior
Derek Zumsteg   Barry Bonds     Randy Johnson


                                              Surprise  Disappointment
BP Author        NL RoY          NL MoY       Team      Team
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower       Brandon Larson  Bobby Cox    Rockies   Phillies
Will Carroll     Joe Thurston    Dusty Baker  Pirates   Astros
Jeff Hildebrand  Marlon Byrd     Jim Tracy    Dodgers   Phillies
Gary Huckabay    Hee Seop Choi   Dusty Baker  Padres    Cardinals
Jonah Keri       Xavier Nady     Larry Bowa   Cubs      Braves
Mat Olkin        Brandon Larson  Dusty Baker  Cubs      Braves
Doug Pappas      Marlon Byrd     Dusty Baker  Cubs      Dodgers
Keith Scherer    Aaron Cook      Dusty Baker  Rockies   Cardinals
Joe Sheehan      Kurt Ainsworth  Bob Boone    Reds      Mets
Nate Silver      Marlon Byrd     Larry Bowa   Rockies   Mets
Greg Spira       Hee Seop Choi   Dusty Baker  Cubs      Dodgers
Ryan Wilkins     Hee Seop Choi   Dusty Baker  Cubs      Cardinals
Derek Zumsteg    Kurt Ainsworth  Felipe Alou  Cubs      Mets
American League

American League East

BP Author        First    Second    Third      Fourth   Fifth
---------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower       Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Will Carroll     Red Sox  Yankees*  Blue Jays  D-Rays   Orioles
Jeff Hildebrand  Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Gary Huckabay    Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Jonah Keri       Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Mat Olkin        Yankees  Red Sox   Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Doug Pappas      Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Keith Scherer    Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Joe Sheehan      Red Sox  Yankees*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Nate Silver      Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Greg Spira       Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  D-Rays   Orioles
Ryan Wilkins     Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Derek Zumsteg    Yankees  Red Sox*  Blue Jays  Orioles  D-Rays
Consensus: (1) Yankees, (2) Red Sox, (3) Blue Jays, (4) Orioles, (5) Devil Rays

American League Central

BP Author       First      Second     Third    Fourth   Fifth
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Will Carroll    Twins      White Sox  Indians  Royals   Tigers
Jeff Hildebrand Twins      White Sox  Indians  Royals   Tigers
Gary Huckabay   White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Jonah Keri      White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Mat Olkin       Twins      White Sox  Indians  Royals   Tigers
Doug Pappas     Twins      White Sox  Indians  Tigers   Royals
Keith Scherer   Twins      White Sox  Indians  Royals   Tigers
Joe Sheehan     Twins      White Sox  Tigers   Indians  Royals
Nate Silver     White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Greg Spira      White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Ryan Wilkins    White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Derek Zumsteg   White Sox  Twins      Indians  Royals   Tigers
Consensus: (1) White Sox, (2) Twins, (3) Indians, (4) Royals, (5) Tigers

American League West

BP Author       First      Second    Third     Fourth
-------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers  
Will Carroll    Athletics  Angels    Rangers   Mariners 
Jeff Hildebrand Athletics  Mariners  Rangers   Angels   
Gary Huckabay   Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers  
Jonah Keri      Athletics  Rangers   Mariners  Angels   
Mat Olkin       Athletics  Angels*   Mariners  Rangers  
Doug Pappas     Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers  
Keith Scherer   Athletics  Angels    Rangers   Mariners 
Joe Sheehan     Athletics  Rangers   Angels    Mariners 
Nate Silver     Athletics  Mariners  Rangers   Angels   
Greg Spira      Athletics  Rangers   Mariners  Angels
Ryan Wilkins    Athletics  Mariners  Rangers   Angels
Derek Zumsteg   Athletics  Mariners  Angels    Rangers
Consensus: (1) Athletics, (2) Angels, (3) Mariners, (4) Rangers/Angels (tie)

Postseason

                                        AL World Series
BP Author       ALCS Representatives    Representative
-------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Athletics, Red Sox      Athletics       
Will Carroll    Athletics, Red Sox      Athletics       
Jeff Hildebrand Yankees, Athletics      Athletics       
Gary Huckabay   Red Sox, White Sox      Red Sox 
Jonah Keri      Yankees, Red Sox        Red Sox 
Mat Olkin       Yankees, Athletics      Athletics       
Doug Pappas     Yankees, Athletics      Athletics       
Keith Scherer   Yankees, Athletics      Yankees 
Joe Sheehan     Yankees, Athletics      Athletics       
Nate Silver     Yankees, Red Sox        Red Sox 
Greg Spira      Yankees, Athletics      Athletics       
Ryan Wilkins    Athletics, Red Sox      Red Sox                 
Derek Zumsteg   Yankees, Athletics      Yankees                 
AL Awards / Miscellaneous
BP Author       AL MVP             Cy Young Award
-------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Alex Rodriguez     Pedro Martinez
Will Carroll    Manny Ramirez      Barry Zito
Jeff Hildebrand Manny Ramirez      Tim Hudson   
Gary Huckabay   Magglio Ordonez    Pedro Martinez
Jonah Keri      Nomar Garciaparra  Pedro Martinez
Mat Olkin       Alex Rodriguez     Barry Zito
Doug Pappas     Alex Rodriguez     Mike Mussina
Keith Scherer   Manny Ramirez      Pedro Martinez
Joe Sheehan     Manny Ramirez      Tim Hudson
Nate Silver     Alex Rodriguez     Pedro Martinez
Greg Spira      Alex Rodriguez     Pedro Martinez
Ryan Wilkins    Eric Chavez        Pedro Martinez
Derek Zumsteg   Jason Giambi       Pedro Martinez
                                                  Surprise   Disappointment
BP Author       AL RoY            AL MoY          Team       Team
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Bower      Travis Hafner     Grady Little    Blue Jays  Devil Rays
Will Carroll    Mark Teixeira     Grady Little    Rangers    Orioles
Jeff Hildebrand Brandon Phillips  Ken Macha       Blue Jays  Angels
Gary Huckabay   Mark Teixeira     Grady Little    Blue Jays  Mariners
Jonah Keri      Hideki Matsui     Ken Macha       Rangers    Angels
Mat Olkin       Hideki Matsui     Carlos Tosca    Blue Jays  Rangers
Doug Pappas     Hideki Matsui     Grady Little    Blue Jays  Mariners
Keith Scherer   Michael Cuddyer   Ron Gardenhire  (None)     White Sox
Joe Sheehan     Hideki Matsui     Ken Macha       (None)     Angels
Nate Silver     Hideki Matsui     Grady Little    Indians    Angels
Greg Spira      Hideki Matsui/    Buck Showalter  Rangers    Angels
                Travis Hafner (tie)
Ryan Wilkins    Hideki Matsui     Grady Little    Blue Jays  Angels
Derek Zumsteg   Hideki Matsui     Grady Little    White Sox  Devil Rays
The Whole Enchilada
BP Author       World Series Winner
-----------------------------------
Jeff Bower                Athletics
Will Carroll              Athletics
Jeff Hildebrand              Giants
Gary Huckabay               Red Sox
Jonah Keri                  Red Sox
Mat Olkin                 Athletics
Doug Pappas                  Giants
Keith Scherer               Yankees
Joe Sheehan               Athletics
Nate Silver                 Red Sox
Greg Spira             Diamondbacks
Ryan Wilkins                Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg               Yankees
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