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The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $6.89 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg ) |
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March 25, 2003 Surveying the AuthorsPreseason PredictionsWell, it's that time of year again--the time for Baseball Prospectus authors to emerge from out of their respective caves, and provide readers with further evidence that they know absolutely nothing about this game they call "base ball." In other words, it's time for the annual set of Preseason Predictions.For this survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering--among other things--divisional standings, postseason standings, and end-of-season awards. Later this week, a Roundtable discussion will run in this space, discussing the predictions seen below, and probably a bunch of other topics as well. Enjoy. National League National League East BP Author First Second Third Fourth Fifth -------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower Braves Phillies Mets Expos Marlins Will Carroll Phillies Braves Expos Mets Marlins Jeff Hildebrand Braves Phillies Mets Expos Marlins Gary Huckabay Phillies Braves Expos Mets Marlins Jonah Keri Phillies Braves Expos Mets Marlins Mat Olkin Phillies Expos Braves Mets Marlins Doug Pappas Braves Phillies Mets Expos Marlins Keith Scherer Phillies Braves Marlins Expos Mets Joe Sheehan Phillies Braves Mets Expos Marlins Nate Silver Phillies Braves Expos Marlins Mets Greg Spira Braves Phillies Mets Expos Marlins Ryan Wilkins Phillies Braves Mets Expos Marlins Derek Zumsteg Phillies Braves Expos Marlins MetsConsensus: (1) Phillies, (2) Braves, (3) Mets, (4) Expos, (5) Marlins National League Central BP Author First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth -------------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower Cards Cubs Astros Reds Pirates Brewers Will Carroll Reds Cubs Pirates Cards Astros Brewers Jeff Hildebrand Astros Cubs Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Gary Huckabay Cubs Astros Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Jonah Keri Astros Cards* Cubs Reds Pirates Brewers Mat Olkin Astros Cards Cubs Reds Pirates Brewers Doug Pappas Cards Astros Cubs Reds Pirates Brewers Keith Scherer Cubs Astros* Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Joe Sheehan Reds Cubs* Cards Pirates Astros Brewers Nate Silver Astros Cubs Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Greg Spira Astros Cubs Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Ryan Wilkins Astros Cubs* Cards Reds Pirates Brewers Derek Zumsteg Astros Cards Cubs Reds Pirates BrewersConsensus: (1) Astros, (2) Cubs, (3) Cardinals, (4) Reds, (5) Pirates, (6) Brewers National League West BP Author First Second Third Fourth Fifth ------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower D'backs Giants* Rockies Dodgers Padres Will Carroll Giants D'backs* Dodgers Padres Rockies Jeff Hildebrand Dodgers Giants* D'backs Padres Rockies Gary Huckabay D'backs Giants* Padres Dodgers Rockies Jonah Keri Giants D'backs Dodgers Rockies Padres Mat Olkin D'backs Giants* Dodgers Rockies Padres Doug Pappas Giants D'backs* Dodgers Padres Rockies Keith Scherer D'backs Rockies Giants Dodgers Padres Joe Sheehan Giants Dodgers D'backs Padres Rockies Nate Silver Giants D'backs* Rockies Dodgers Padres Greg Spira Giants D'backs* Rockies Dodgers Padres Ryan Wilkins Giants D'backs Rockies Dodgers Padres Derek Zumsteg Giants D'backs* Dodgers Rockies PadresConsensus: (1) Giants, (2) Diamondbacks, (3) Dodgers, (4) Rockies, (5) Padres Postseason
NL World Series
BP Author NLCS Representatives Representative
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Jeff Bower Diamondbacks, Braves Diamondbacks
Will Carroll Diamondbacks, Reds Diamondbacks
Jeff Hildebrand Dodgers, Giants Giants
Gary Huckabay Cubs, Giants Giants
Jonah Keri Cardinals, Astros Astros
Mat Olkin Diamondbacks, Astros Astros
Doug Pappas Diamondbacks, Giants Giants
Keith Scherer Astros, Cubs Astros
Joe Sheehan Phillies, Giants Giants
Nate Silver Diamondbacks, Phillies Phillies
Greg Spira Diamondbacks, Braves Diamondbacks
Ryan Wilkins Phillies, Giants Phillies
Derek Zumsteg Diamondbacks, Giants Giants
NL Awards / Miscellaneous
BP Author NL MVP Cy Young Award
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Jeff Bower Barry Bonds Randy Johnson
Will Carroll Barry Bonds Randy Johnson
Jeff Hildebrand Barry Bonds Greg Maddux
Gary Huckabay Barry Bonds Mark Prior
Jonah Keri Lance Berkman Randy Johnson
Mat Olkin Vlad Guerrero Randy Johnson
Doug Pappas Barry Bonds Randy Johnson
Keith Scherer Sammy Sosa Mark Prior
Joe Sheehan Vlad Guerrero Mark Prior
Nate Silver Barry Bonds Curt Schilling
Greg Spira Barry Bonds Randy Johnson
Ryan Wilkins Barry Bonds Mark Prior
Derek Zumsteg Barry Bonds Randy Johnson
Surprise Disappointment
BP Author NL RoY NL MoY Team Team
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Jeff Bower Brandon Larson Bobby Cox Rockies Phillies
Will Carroll Joe Thurston Dusty Baker Pirates Astros
Jeff Hildebrand Marlon Byrd Jim Tracy Dodgers Phillies
Gary Huckabay Hee Seop Choi Dusty Baker Padres Cardinals
Jonah Keri Xavier Nady Larry Bowa Cubs Braves
Mat Olkin Brandon Larson Dusty Baker Cubs Braves
Doug Pappas Marlon Byrd Dusty Baker Cubs Dodgers
Keith Scherer Aaron Cook Dusty Baker Rockies Cardinals
Joe Sheehan Kurt Ainsworth Bob Boone Reds Mets
Nate Silver Marlon Byrd Larry Bowa Rockies Mets
Greg Spira Hee Seop Choi Dusty Baker Cubs Dodgers
Ryan Wilkins Hee Seop Choi Dusty Baker Cubs Cardinals
Derek Zumsteg Kurt Ainsworth Felipe Alou Cubs Mets
American League
American League East BP Author First Second Third Fourth Fifth --------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Will Carroll Red Sox Yankees* Blue Jays D-Rays Orioles Jeff Hildebrand Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Gary Huckabay Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Jonah Keri Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Mat Olkin Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Doug Pappas Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Keith Scherer Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Joe Sheehan Red Sox Yankees* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Nate Silver Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Greg Spira Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays D-Rays Orioles Ryan Wilkins Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays Derek Zumsteg Yankees Red Sox* Blue Jays Orioles D-RaysConsensus: (1) Yankees, (2) Red Sox, (3) Blue Jays, (4) Orioles, (5) Devil Rays American League Central BP Author First Second Third Fourth Fifth -------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Will Carroll Twins White Sox Indians Royals Tigers Jeff Hildebrand Twins White Sox Indians Royals Tigers Gary Huckabay White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Jonah Keri White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Mat Olkin Twins White Sox Indians Royals Tigers Doug Pappas Twins White Sox Indians Tigers Royals Keith Scherer Twins White Sox Indians Royals Tigers Joe Sheehan Twins White Sox Tigers Indians Royals Nate Silver White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Greg Spira White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Ryan Wilkins White Sox Twins Indians Royals Tigers Derek Zumsteg White Sox Twins Indians Royals TigersConsensus: (1) White Sox, (2) Twins, (3) Indians, (4) Royals, (5) Tigers American League West BP Author First Second Third Fourth ------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower Athletics Angels Mariners Rangers Will Carroll Athletics Angels Rangers Mariners Jeff Hildebrand Athletics Mariners Rangers Angels Gary Huckabay Athletics Angels Mariners Rangers Jonah Keri Athletics Rangers Mariners Angels Mat Olkin Athletics Angels* Mariners Rangers Doug Pappas Athletics Angels Mariners Rangers Keith Scherer Athletics Angels Rangers Mariners Joe Sheehan Athletics Rangers Angels Mariners Nate Silver Athletics Mariners Rangers Angels Greg Spira Athletics Rangers Mariners Angels Ryan Wilkins Athletics Mariners Rangers Angels Derek Zumsteg Athletics Mariners Angels RangersConsensus: (1) Athletics, (2) Angels, (3) Mariners, (4) Rangers/Angels (tie) Postseason
AL World Series
BP Author ALCS Representatives Representative
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Jeff Bower Athletics, Red Sox Athletics
Will Carroll Athletics, Red Sox Athletics
Jeff Hildebrand Yankees, Athletics Athletics
Gary Huckabay Red Sox, White Sox Red Sox
Jonah Keri Yankees, Red Sox Red Sox
Mat Olkin Yankees, Athletics Athletics
Doug Pappas Yankees, Athletics Athletics
Keith Scherer Yankees, Athletics Yankees
Joe Sheehan Yankees, Athletics Athletics
Nate Silver Yankees, Red Sox Red Sox
Greg Spira Yankees, Athletics Athletics
Ryan Wilkins Athletics, Red Sox Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg Yankees, Athletics Yankees
AL Awards / Miscellaneous
BP Author AL MVP Cy Young Award ------------------------------------------------- Jeff Bower Alex Rodriguez Pedro Martinez Will Carroll Manny Ramirez Barry Zito Jeff Hildebrand Manny Ramirez Tim Hudson Gary Huckabay Magglio Ordonez Pedro Martinez Jonah Keri Nomar Garciaparra Pedro Martinez Mat Olkin Alex Rodriguez Barry Zito Doug Pappas Alex Rodriguez Mike Mussina Keith Scherer Manny Ramirez Pedro Martinez Joe Sheehan Manny Ramirez Tim Hudson Nate Silver Alex Rodriguez Pedro Martinez Greg Spira Alex Rodriguez Pedro Martinez Ryan Wilkins Eric Chavez Pedro Martinez Derek Zumsteg Jason Giambi Pedro Martinez
Surprise Disappointment
BP Author AL RoY AL MoY Team Team
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Jeff Bower Travis Hafner Grady Little Blue Jays Devil Rays
Will Carroll Mark Teixeira Grady Little Rangers Orioles
Jeff Hildebrand Brandon Phillips Ken Macha Blue Jays Angels
Gary Huckabay Mark Teixeira Grady Little Blue Jays Mariners
Jonah Keri Hideki Matsui Ken Macha Rangers Angels
Mat Olkin Hideki Matsui Carlos Tosca Blue Jays Rangers
Doug Pappas Hideki Matsui Grady Little Blue Jays Mariners
Keith Scherer Michael Cuddyer Ron Gardenhire (None) White Sox
Joe Sheehan Hideki Matsui Ken Macha (None) Angels
Nate Silver Hideki Matsui Grady Little Indians Angels
Greg Spira Hideki Matsui/ Buck Showalter Rangers Angels
Travis Hafner (tie)
Ryan Wilkins Hideki Matsui Grady Little Blue Jays Angels
Derek Zumsteg Hideki Matsui Grady Little White Sox Devil Rays
The Whole Enchilada
BP Author World Series Winner ----------------------------------- Jeff Bower Athletics Will Carroll Athletics Jeff Hildebrand Giants Gary Huckabay Red Sox Jonah Keri Red Sox Mat Olkin Athletics Doug Pappas Giants Keith Scherer Yankees Joe Sheehan Athletics Nate Silver Red Sox Greg Spira Diamondbacks Ryan Wilkins Red Sox Derek Zumsteg YankeesQuestions or comments? You can contact Baseball Prospectus by clicking here.
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Transaction Analysis: Wolf on the Noggin
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