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June 14, 2012

Future Shock

Picking Pitchers

by Kevin Goldstein

On the surface, the question seems like an easy one: if your team were playing in a championship game tomorrow, and you could have any starting pitcher to pitch that game for you, who would it be? Your choice is of any ace in the game, but for some it's not just about statistics, it's about comfort and mitigating risk. The question was posed to 12 industry insiders, ranging from pro scout to general manager, and those twelve generated five different responses.

1. Justin Verlander, Tigers (seven votes)
Verlander was the runaway winner, but some might be surprised to see that he collected just over half the votes. “He just walks to the mound like he owns it,” said an American League scouting official. “You're talking about 95-100 mph to both sides of the plate, a hellacious curveball and a plus change.” A National League scout agreed, while focusing on the thought of just one game. “He's capable of no-hitting anyone at any time, in any place,” he said. “Every time you see him you wonder if you're going to see something special.” A National League front office member also focused on the one-game aspect, but took a different angle: “Verlander has been the most consistent when it comes to maintaining plus-plus stuff deep into games, which for me is really what you ask for when looking for the best player to start one game.”

T2. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (two votes)
One of the two young guns to receive votes, Kershaw is just 24 years old and is already on his fourth straight year of putting up ace-level numbers in the big leagues. “Verlander has more pitches and better stuff, and really he and Kershaw are the only two considerations for me,” said one NL official. “I just think Kershaw is the most likely to dominate in a start tomorrow.”

T2. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (two votes)
Despite being just 23 years old with less than 170 innings under his belt, Strasburg got a couple of nods. “His stuff is just so much better than anyone else's stuff,” said an AL official, while a scouting executive agreed, adding, “He's evolving from a pure flame guy to a pure pitcher that has an assortment of weapons."

T4. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees (one vote)
Sabathia is generally considered an ace despite the fact that he's had an ERA under three just once in his career and struck out over 200 batters only three times. “He's just the man,” said an assistant general manager. “I know it doesn't match up objectively or on the foundation of any evidence. But I think about what he did in Milwaukee and I think about him ripping off win after win with the Yankees and for me this is a question about trust and I trust that guy.”

T4. Jered Weaver, Angels (one vote)
Last year's runner up in the Cy Young voting, Weaver has improved his rate stats this year and one American League executive decided to turn away from the strikeout machines and go for the efficiency. “I was just thinking about power guys, and I still might rather have power,” he explained. “But Verlander is in a bit of a funk right now, so I'll take the guy I know is going to consistently throw strikes.”