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May 29, 2012

Overthinking It

Jonny Venters and What a High BABIP Looks Like

by Ben Lindbergh

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A few days ago, I got an email from someone who wanted to know why Jonny Venters isn’t dominating people like he did last year. He speculated that there’s something wrong with his stuff, or that his mechanics might be off.

I started formulating an answer even before I looked at the numbers. Well, it’s too small a sample to draw conclusions. Well, Venters was so good in 2011 that it’s unfair to expect a repeat performance. Well, he led the league in appearances last year, so maybe he’s feeling some fatigue.

Then I looked at the numbers, and my answer quickly became, “Jonny Venters is dominating like he did last year.”

Well, not quite like he did last year—he’s recording his outs a little differently in 2012. Venters is getting more strikeouts and fewer ground balls, though it’s early enough that he’s only a few Ks and grounders off his respective rates from last season. He’s given up three homers, the same number he allowed in the last two seasons combined. The home runs, additional strikeouts, and reduced grounder rate paint a picture of a pitcher who’s throwing higher in the zone, and the stats say that Venters has thrown both up and inside a little more frequently. Fredi Gonzalez recently remarked, “The sinker is coming out sideways instead of going down, and for me, that’s just tinkering a little bit with the hand position.” Data from Brooks Baseball supports him, sort of—the sinker has had about an inch less of vertical movement and a half inch more movement horizontally in 2012.

If we squint, we might be able to make out a pitcher who’s been marginally less effective. But we’d have to squint hard. And even then, we might just be doing this:

Venters has struck out over 12 batters per nine innings. Nearly 60 percent of his batted balls allowed have been on the ground. His sinker has averaged 94.0 miles per hour (compared to 94.3 through the same point last season). Pitchers who can claim one of those things are generally very good. Pitchers who can claim all three are almost uniformly elite. So what stat was it that led my enterprising emailer to fear for Venters’ season? Take a look at the table below.

Year

IP

ERA

FRA

2010

83.0

1.95

3.41

2011

88.0

1.84

3.72

2012

18.3

3.44

3.80

Venters’ FRA suggests that he’s the same stud he’d been since his debut. Venters’ ERA suggests that he’s been about half as effective as he was last season. Here’s why they disagree:

Year

BABIP

2010

.291

2011

.250

2012

.458

Venters entered this season with a .271 career BABIP, so he might have been a bit lucky before. Then again, he might not have: plenty of elite relievers (Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan, Keith Foulke, Armando Benitez) have managed to keep their career BABIPs under .270. Either way, sabermetric orthodoxy holds that there’s no way he’s deserved to have nearly half his balls in play turn into hits.

It’s been about a decade since noting that a pitcher had a high BABIP qualified as an original observation, so I felt a little lazy citing Venters’ .450-something figure and slapping a QED at the end of my email. Sure, over a full season, most pitchers’ BABIPs will be close to league average, and most of those that aren’t will be the result of good or bad luck. But over 18 innings, maybe a pitcher can be more hittable than usual. Maybe he can consistently fall behind in the count, or leave balls over the middle. Maybe Venters was asking for every hit he allowed.

The season is still young enough that we can answer that question through old-fashioned empirical observation. I wanted to know what a high BABIP looks like in action, so I watched every non-homer hit Venters has allowed to get a feel for how many balls were hit hard. Then I fired up my GIF machine so that you could do the same. We’ll go in chronological order, beginning with the extra-base hits.

The Doubles
Date: 4/29
Batter: Pedro Alvarez
Count: 1-2
Pitch: 87 mph slider
Luck: Slightly bad

Venters hit his target, and Alvarez hit the ball off the end of the bat, but it dropped in a few feet fair. Far from the cheapest double you’ll ever see, but hardly a fluke. Doesn’t reflect too poorly on Venters, who did what he wanted to do with the pitch. Broadcasters probably overuse the phrase “nice piece of hitting” when describing opposite-field hits, but considering Alvarez was down in the count and Venters didn’t miss his spot, that’s actually what this was.

Date: 5/1
Batter: John Mayberry
Count: 1-0
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad

Another pitch that went where it was supposed to, another pitch that ended up sliced softly to the outfield. It might be a stretch to call it bad luck, but it’s definitely a stretch to call it bad pitching.

Date: 5/14
Batter: Chris Heisey
Count: 0-0
Pitch: 93 mph sinker
Luck: Neutral

That, ladies and gentleman, is what a line drive looks like. Batted-ball classifications make Colin Wyers cry, but no stringer worth his salt could see that as anything else.

Date: 5/14
Batter: Brandon Phillips
Count: 2-1
Pitch: 85 mph slider
Luck: Good, if anything

A few feet to the left, and that ball would have left Turner Field. If that ball had left Turner Field, Venters’ BABIP would be lower. Unlucky! No, that’s not how it works.

Date: 5/26
Batter: Adam LaRoche
Count: 3-2
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Bad
Bonus broadcaster comment: “Bad hop. Hinske I don’t think ever saw that.”

This was hit pretty hard, but it was well within Hinske’s reach. It looked like it hit the bag and took a bad bounce.

The Singles
Date: 4/5
Batter: Scott Hairston
Count: 1-0
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Neutral

Only a few inches above Martin Prado’s outstretched glove, but the ball was hit hard, and it would have been an impressive catch. Chipper Jones is three inches taller than Prado, so if he hadn’t been recovering from surgery on his left meniscus at the time, he might have caught that ball, only to go in for even more serious knee surgery after landing.

Date: 4/5
Batter: David Wright
Count: 1-0
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Neutral

Generic line-drive single. Wright has a .430 BABIP this season, so this was simply a case of a batter who won’t stop getting hits running into one who won’t stop allowing them.

Date: 4/10
Batter: Jose Altuve
Count: 0-1
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad

This one was on the ground, but it was hit hard. Venters barely avoided being hit. A kick save might have led to an out, but it might also have led to an amputation.

Date: 4/13
Batter: Alex Gonzalez
Count: 1-1
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Bad
Bonus broadcaster comment: “And that ball ate him alive.”

Hit hard enough not to be an error, but right at Tyler Pastornicky, who couldn’t handle the weird hop. If this had been last season, Alex Gonzalez would have been trying to field that ball instead of trying to hit it, and it might have been an out. In related news, the Braves were better at fielding last season.

Date: 4/14
Batter: Mat Gamel
Count: 1-2
Pitch: 93 mph sinker
Luck: Bad
Bonus broadcaster comment: “A little bloop off the bat of Gamel.”

Bonus broadcaster comment says it all. Gamel got jammed and hit a soft liner/fliner/thing-that-makes-Colin-cry that Jason Heyward couldn’t quite get to.

Date: 4/14
Batter: Norichika Aoki
Count: 2-0
Pitch: 92 mph sinker
Luck: Bad

The swinging bunt: high-BABIP hallmark. Gamel scored on Uggla’s ill-advised throw. Gamel probably won’t tell his grandkids about scoring that run.

Date: 1-0
Batter: Jimmy Rollins
Count: 1-0
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad
Bonus broadcaster comment: “Little flare into shallow left, and that’s going to drop.”

Like Gamel before him, Rollins got jammed and managed to drop a ball that hung up forever in front of a Braves outfielder.

Date: 5/1
Batter: Shane Victorino
Count: 2-2
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad
Bonus broadcaster comment: “Off Jonny’s foot!”

The first time Venters gets nailed. It won’t be the last. Venters must be the most-bruised pitcher in baseball this season. Hard to say whether it would have been fielded otherwise.

Date: 5/1
Batter: Hunter Pence
Count: 2-2
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Bad

This batted ball is what’s known as a grounder to second base. But since Victorino was running, the second baseman was covering the bag, which made it a single instead.

Date: 5/8
Batter: David DeJesus
Count: 2-2
Pitch: 94 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad

DeJesus got jammed, though he got a little more wood on it than Gamel and Rollins got on their soft liners. You know how old-timers sometimes say that when so-and-so hit the ball, his bat made a special sort of crack, and everyone in the park looked up? DeJesus’ bat did not make that kind of crack. It made more of a hollow thud, and everyone in the park looked down to see if they’d dropped their plastic beer cup.

Date: 5/8
Batter: Starlin Castro
Count: 1-0
Pitch: 86 mph changeup
Luck: Neutral-ish

Venters left it up a little, but Castro hit it off the end of the bat, and it looped pretty softly into center.. You’re probably sensing a theme here.

Date: 5/14
Batter: Drew Stubbs
Count: 3-1
Pitch: 92 mph sinker
Luck: Bad

This single made the one Aoki hit look like a line drive. Venters wouldn’t have had a chance to throw out Stubbs even if he’d fielded it cleanly instead of like a poorly animated, low–poly player from Triple Play 2000.  

Date: 5/18
Batter: Luke Scott
Count: 0-2
Pitch: 86 mph slider
Luck: Neutral-ish

Just out of Uggla’s reach, which describes almost every ball on a baseball field.

Date: 5/20
Batter: Luke Scott
Count: 0-2
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Good, in a weird way

This ball hit Carlos Pena between first and second, which means it was both a single and an out—bad for Venters’ BABIP, but good for his ERA. It might have been fielded even if Pena hadn’t been hit, and even though Uggla was at second. Since he wasn’t hurt, I’m sort of glad it did hit Pena. Baserunners aren’t hit by baseballs often, and this occasion afforded us an opportunity to see how the batter reacts when one is.

First, Scott executed a rarely seen over-the-head backwards bat flip without breaking stride:

Second, Scott executed a look of indescribable sadness:

Date: 5/23
Batter: Chris Heisey
Count: 3-1
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Slightly bad

Venters adds a bruised heel to his bruised body part collection.

Date: 5/26
Batter: Ryan Zimmerman
Count: 2-0
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Bad

Venters 2012:

Except the balls hit off of Venters are hit less hard. Against Zimmerman, Venters actually gets a glove on the ball, but the glove refuses to function.

Date: 5/28
Batter: Matt Holliday
Count: 1-2
Pitch: 95 mph sinker
Luck: Bad

Your stereotypical seeing-eye single. Of the 17 singles off Venters, 10 were grounders that found a hole. The other seven were classified as line drives, but only two or three were hit hard. No pitcher goes through a season without allowing a cheap hit or three, but Venters has given up more than his fair share. To be fair and balanced, I also watched all of the balls that were turned into outs behind Venters, just to see if he’d lucked out on any of those. There wasn’t a Web Gem in the bunch, though there was another ball that bounced off of Venters.

Takeaways: Atlanta’s defense isn’t very good. Jonny Venters is going to be just fine. And that collection of bloops, bleeders, and perfectly placed soft flies above is what a high BABIP looks like at the end of May.

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here

Related Content:  Luck,  Atlanta Braves,  Dan Uggla,  Jonny Venters,  Braves,  Babip,  Bad Luck

24 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

dianagram

I can't imagine how much video editing this took ... bravo.

May 29, 2012 07:31 AM
rating: 5
 
hessshaun

I always wonder how long it takes to create those.

May 29, 2012 08:14 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I could tell you, but I'd rather lead everyone to think I'm more industrious than I am.

May 29, 2012 08:15 AM
 
BuzzingThalami

This blows my mind. I'm imagining pulling someone out of a 1940s Brooklyn barber shop and telling him, "here, youse gotta read this here baseball writer's... column today". He'd think you just dropped in from outer space.

May 29, 2012 19:19 PM
rating: 0
 
pitchershit8th

Well done, Ben.

May 29, 2012 07:52 AM
rating: 1
 
maphal

Great research Ben. I've looked everywhere- including on BP- for current BABIP numbers for both pitchers and hitters. Is it on this site or anywhere else?

May 29, 2012 07:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Yes, BABIP is available in our sortables. Go into the "Batter Team - BIP" or "Pitcher Team - BIP" reports, click on "Statistic Selection," and select BABIP from the menu on the left to add it to the reports. I'll see whether we can get it to display by default.

May 29, 2012 07:56 AM
 
RedsManRick

This article could easily have been written about Sean Marshall. His bad batted ball luck (.435) and a regression to the mean of his HR rate cost him the closer gig. Given what he can control, he's been just as dominant as ever -- just isn't getting the commensurate results.

At least the guy who replaced him has been the most dominant reliever in baseball this year.

May 29, 2012 09:13 AM
rating: 2
 
redsfan1470

And the kicker is that during his "big" blown save against the Giants, Marshall threw a 0-2 curveball that was clearly a strike, only it was called a ball.

Here's the PitchFX chart for the AB in question - check out the location of that called ball!

http://bit.ly/IiZSGy

He's just had horrible luck so far this year, but it seems to me watching the games that he's pitching pretty well overall.

May 29, 2012 10:45 AM
rating: 0
 
surfdent48

Great article. Chris Volstad is another example of a very bad luck pitcher. Seeing eye grounders, swinging bunts, bloops and bleeders at a high rate leading to a high career BABIP. Of course, playing for the Marlins, and this year, the Cubs explains a lot.

May 29, 2012 09:22 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

The bigger problem for Volstad has been his performance with men on base. That strand rate is ugggggly.

May 29, 2012 09:24 AM
 
nikitos1979

The other question is how many times were there were line drives and hard grounders that didn't result in hits?

May 29, 2012 09:27 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I sort of addressed that in the penultimate paragraph. I watched all of the outs recorded behind Venters, and just about all of them were routine plays. Maybe one play of noticeably above-average difficulty among them.

May 29, 2012 09:33 AM
 
nikitos1979

I get that, but a hard liner to an outfielder would be routine, yet it would be a result of good luck.

May 29, 2012 10:14 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Only three of Venters' outs this season have been classified as line drives by MLBAM. None of them left the infield.

May 29, 2012 10:19 AM
 
marctacoma

Obligatory "bias!" comment.

May 30, 2012 13:16 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Possibly. I watched them, though, and I don't disagree, so I guess I'm guilty, too.

May 30, 2012 13:18 PM
 
Randy Brown
(189)

Indescribable sadness over Pena getting hit with the baseball? Seems more likely that Luke Scott just saw video of his beard on the jumbotron.

May 29, 2012 10:15 AM
rating: 2
 
surfdent48

Volstads ugly strand rate has resulted in large part due to seeing grounders and this bad luck issue is the cause.

May 29, 2012 11:16 AM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

AWESOME!! Liked the Luke Scott clips.

May 29, 2012 13:23 PM
rating: 0
 
evancon

Lost my mind laughing at the Charlie Brown image. Amazing work.

May 29, 2012 16:00 PM
rating: 1
 
BuzzingThalami

I love it that Charlie Brown auto-hyperlinks to a list of four Pecota cards. I wonder what... Linus Van Pelt gives us.

May 29, 2012 19:22 PM
rating: 0
 
Dave Holgado

Outstanding stuff, Ben. One thing that came out of this for me is that Venters, with the way he finishes (falling off the mound a bit and swinging his left leg around so that he ends up facing the third base side), does not leave himself in a particularly good fielding position. Seems correctable.

May 30, 2012 05:39 AM
rating: 0
 
ddufourlogger

"Just out of Uggla’s reach, which describes almost every ball on a baseball field."

I still have yet to hear a good reason for why they didn't work Uggs into LF as opposed to Prado last year. No way he's as bad there as he is at 2B, and Prado has an above-average to excellent glove at 2B. That's Run Prevention 101.

May 30, 2012 10:30 AM
rating: 1
 
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