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May 11, 2012

Overthinking It

A Fond Farewell to the Fake to Third

by Ben Lindbergh

Yesterday, some news came over the wire that attracted slightly less national attention than Stephen Strasburg striking out 13 Pirates but slightly more than Clint Hurdle throwing batting practice to Hines Ward: Major League Baseball is considering a rule change that would prevent pitchers from keeping their feet on the rubber while faking a throw to third with runners on the corners. It's unclear what the impetus is for the proposed change, but the the significance is that the fake-to-third, throw-to-first—which my BBWAA membership stipulates that I refer to as ​the ol' ​fake-to-third, throw-to-first—is now an endangered species of pickoff attempt.

Currently, Official Baseball Rule 8.05 (c) states:

It is possible, with runners on first and third, for the pitcher to step toward third and not throw, merely to bluff the runner back to third; then seeing the runner on first start for second, turn and step toward and throw to first base. This is legal. 

All MLB has to do is add an "il" before the last word of 8.05 (c), and we may never see one of these attempts again. On one hand, I'd be sorry to see them go, since it's rare to see a strategy persist for so long despite working so rarely. The fake to third is a lot like the dodo just before all the dodoes died. On the other hand, I'd be excited about it being a balk, since it would be the first type of balk I could actually identify. 

We don't have to worry about the fake-to-third, throw-to-first (or FTTTTF, for short) going anywhere right away.* The Playing Rules Committee has approved the proposal, but immediate implementation of the rule change was blocked by the Players Association so that the players "could further study the issue," presumably by wearing white lab coats and taking careful measurements while a series of pitchers fake to third and throw to first in wind tunnels. MLB is allowed to institute the change without the players' consent after a one-year wait, so unless the players are willing to strike over it—and somehow this seems unlikely—the countdown has already begun. Even though the play rarely leads to a pickoff, runners have to be prepared for it, especially since it's so embarrassing when it works. In an FTTTTF-free world, runners might be able to take longer leads, and the potential consequences—up to and including complete chaos—could be serious. Normally I'm not one to interfere with further study, but players are busy people, so I decided to save them some time by examining the issue myself.

*We probably wouldn't have to worry about it anyway, but change can be scary.

Here's a demonstration of what the FTTTTF usually looks like, courtesy of Shawn Camp:

Let's break down the steps:

  1. Lift leg up slowly, like a dog about to urinate on a fire hydrant.
  2. Telegraph step toward third base as obviously as possible. Bonus points for slow-motion mouthing "I'mm-goingg-to-throww-to-thirdddd" while you do this.
  3. Remember not to throw to third!
  4. Whip around to see if you fooled the runner on first. Low expectations are the key to avoiding disappointment.
  5. If you fooled the runner on first, try not to look as surprised as he is. Throw to first and accept the out nonchalantly, as if you haven't been imagining this moment since Little League.
  6. If you didn't fool the runner on first, make it clear to everyone that you weren't really trying to, anyway. Stretch, adjust your cup, and hope no one noticed.

In this particular sequence, Camp went back to the FTTTTF well twice on the same count. The runner (Chone Figgins) was equally unfooled by the second attempt.

Despite those failures, Camp was determined to get his pickoff. After lulling Figgins to sleep with two fakes to third, he tried a straight-up pickoff attempt, again before throwing another actual pitch. And whaddya know, it worked:

Note the runner on third, doing the Watching Chone Figgins Play Baseball dance.

Those two FTTTTFs were merely the opening act of Camp's pickoff opus, but sometimes a FTTTTF can be its own finale. Unfortunately, we can't calculate the FTTTTF's true success rate without watching every pickoff attempt (though Yankees reliever Boone Logan, who's probably just bitter because he's a lefty and can't do it, estimated that it works approximately "once in never.") And even if we did that, we wouldn't know how often aborted attempts like Camp's occur. (Add this to the long list of mysteries FIELDf/x could solve, if it fell into the hands of someone frivolous.)  Occasionally, though, the answer to the age-old question—Does that ever actually ​work?​—is yes. I went back and watched every event from 2011 and 2012 marked as a pickoff with runners on first and third and a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Most of the attempts were garden-variety pickoffs without a fake to third. The following were the ones that weren't.

Date: 4/1/11
Pitcher: Brad Ziegler

Batter: Ryan Langerhans
Runner: Miguel Olivo 
Believability: 7

​Sometimes a good FTTTP goes bad. Ziegler goes into a fairly convincing hunch here (though Olivo wasn't fooled), but he doesn't devote as much care to the throw as he does to the deception. In fairness to Ziegler, he doesn't have to throw overhand often. Pitchers: much better at throwing to home than to other bases.

Date: 4/10/11
PitcherGavin Floyd
BatterDan Johnson
Runner on 1st: Johnny Damon 
Believability: 8


 

We're going in chronological order here—the first two FTTTTP pickoffs on the list happened to involve ugly-looking throws, but we'll get to a successful attempt soon. Floyd fully commits to the fake leg lift, deking Damon, but then the rest of the play happens. The emphatic glove pound is Floyd's way of saying sorry. 

Date: 4/28/11
PitcherBrad Penny
BatterMilton Bradley
Runner on 1st: Chone Figgins 
Believability: 3

As part of this process, I watched a lot of pickoffs that weren't FTTTTFs, but before I watched this one, I knew​ Brad Penny was going to fake to third. Can you picture Brad Penny spinning quickly from the stretch? When Penny spins, the revolutions come slowly, as evidenced by the movement he makes when he decides to throw to first instead of second (faking out the second-base umpire in the process). Penny doesn't look like he's about to do anything athletic when he fakes toward third, so it's sort of surprising that Figgins falls for it. Then again, Penny almost never looks like he's about to do something athletic.

​Date: 5/12/11
PitcherJoe Smith
BatterElliot Johnson
Runner on 1st: Casey Kotchman 
Believability: 9

Johnson at the plate, Joe Smith on the mound: I almost don’t blame Kotchman for spacing out on first, because that’s about the most boring batter-pitcher matchup imaginable. To his credit, Smith sells the fake move well, if somewhat spastically.

Date: 5/12/11
PitcherClayton Mortensen

BatterWillie Harris
Runner on 1st: Jose Reyes 
Believability: 6.5



Clayton Mortensen is definitely an ambi-turner. The GIF seems to skip a frame there, but he actually did turn almost that quickly. Some marks deducted for a slow leg lift, but otherwise a solid effort.

Just after Mortensen completed the move, an Incredulous Announcer exclaimed, "Third-to-first works!" Whenever an FTTTTP works, the broadcaster is the happiest person in the ballpark.

Date: 5/13/11
PitcherBrandon McCarthy

BatterAlexei Ramirez
Runner on 1st: Juan Pierre 
Believability: 6

​It's not good to make a throw like that in any park. It's especially not good in Oakland. In the Coliseum's foul territory, no one can hear you scream, and no one can stop Juan Pierre from getting to third base on a throwing error, despite Daric Barton's valiant attempt to trample him.

Date: 6/9/11
PitcherSergio Mitre

BatterJason Pridie
Runner on 1st: Angel Pagan 
Believability: 5

Announcer: "Well, the fake-to-third-and-go-to-first works! That doesn't work hardly ever."

Date: 7/24/11
PitcherTim Wakefield

BatterBrendan Ryan
Runner on 1st: Ichiro Suzuki 
Believability: 10

Wakefield gets a perfect believability score because his normal delivery was indistinguishable from a regular step. Not actually having a windup is the best disguise for an FTTTTP. "He's going!" Brendan Ryan helpfully shouts to Wakefield. "Get 'im!" 

Date: 9/10/11
PitcherMax Scherzer

BatterBrian Dinkelman
Runner on 1st: Joe Benson 
Believability: 8

Scherzer's throw could be better, but ​I bumped up his believability score a full point because Benson barely reacts. Even as he starts trotting, he's not sure how the ball ended up so close to him.

Lastly, we have an entry from 2012.

Date: 4/13/12
PitcherErvin Santana
BatterDerek Jeter
Runner on 1st: Brett Gardner 
Believability: 3

Santana doesn't even complete the step toward third before turning to throw to first, but Gardner falls for it anyway. Apparently, the Angels (and some other clubs) call this the "horn play." The name comes from "from managers extending their index and pinky fingers in a 'Hook 'em Horns' gesture, indicating opposing runners at first and third."

Whenever a pitcher attempts an FTTTTP in a game for or against the Yankees, either Michael Kay or one of his broadcasters calls it "the ol' Jeff Nelson." Maybe every team has a player who's known for making this move, but in New York, Nelson did it most notably, and the Yankees' broadcast team has never forgotten it. Here's the commentary that followed the GIF above:

​Michael Kay: That wasn't even a good move and he got him.
Ken Singleton: The abbreviated Jeff Nelson.
Michael Kay: And Jeff is in the ballpark today.

What are the odds!

Jeff Nelson pitched in the major leagues for 15 seasons. He struck out more than a batter per inning, and he retired with a 133 ERA+. He has four World Series rings. He made an All-Star team. Yet there's going to be a generation of Yankees fans who never saw him pitch, don't know anything about his accomplishments, and will remember him forever as someone who sometimes used to fake to third before throwing to first back when the umpires weren't so strict and pitchers were free to make unconvincing attempts to deceive the runner. It's weird what guys get known for.

Yes, the fake-to-third, throw-to-first pickoff play works. Well, it has worked, once a month or so: as far as I can tell, the FTTTTF has been successful seven times in the last seven months of regular-season baseball. Treasure every time. If MLB gets its way, they won't be making any more next season.

​Thanks to Colin Wyers for research assistance.

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here

Related Content:  Balk,  Pickoff

22 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Screamingliner

Barry Bonds got picked off with this move more than once. It made such an impression on me that whenever I see the FTTTTF, I think "That only catches Barry."

May 11, 2012 10:18 AM
rating: 2
 
Sacramento

"Date: 5/13/11
Pitcher: Brandon McCarthy
Batter: Alexei Ramirez
Runner on 1st: Jose Reyes
Believability: 6"

The runner was actually Juan Pierre, not Jose Reyes.

May 11, 2012 10:44 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Right you are. Confused that clip with the other one where the runner is Reyes. Fixed.

May 11, 2012 10:49 AM
 
Andrew G.

I've seen Turk Wendell (when with the Mets) do it twice in one inning! Forget what year . . .

May 11, 2012 11:17 AM
rating: 1
 
bhalpern

Fun article but isn't the quality of the fake to 3B irrelevant as the whole idea is to catch the runner on first breaking for 2B on what he assumes is a pitch? I thought the fake to 3B isn't to fool the base runner, but only to avoid a balk call. In this way the Santana move is really the best because it's closest to being a balk.

May 11, 2012 11:18 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Don't you have to fool the runner into assuming it's a pitch?

May 11, 2012 11:20 AM
 
bhalpern

That's what I was so unartfully trying to say. Santana's move looks least like a move to 3B and most like an actual pitch (closest to a balk).

May 11, 2012 11:34 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Larry Granillo
BP staff

Nice work, Ben!

I tweeted this already, but: I found eight examples of this from the 2010 season, though I wasn't nearly as analytical about finding them as you were. What I found most interesting was that, of the eight instances, Tim Wakefield was responsible for three of them. And now that I see the gif of him, it becomes clear why.

Forget Jeff Nelson. It should be called The Tim Wakefield (distinct from all the other "The Tim Wakefield's" there are).

Here's the article: http://www.wezen-ball.com/2010-articles/september/fake-to-third-throw-to-first-featuring-tim-wakefield.html

May 11, 2012 11:25 AM
 
Jayfan34


In Toronto it's the 'ol Pat Hentgen move. It'd work for him once or twice a season. Wouldn't be surprised if he's the one who encouraged Camp to start using it.

May 11, 2012 11:44 AM
rating: 0
 
Schere

sidearmers seem to be over-represented here. I think the Orioles O'Day -0 another sidearmer - picked off Alexi Ramirez this way April 17th.

I can't find video, but I'm pretty sure that's how it went down. Ended the inning in a 1-run game...what an awful play by Ramirez.

May 11, 2012 12:04 PM
rating: 0
 
Schere

here it is:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20742961&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_20742961&v=3

May 11, 2012 12:23 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Good catch. That play was scored a caught stealing, not a pickoff, so it didn't turn up in my research. There might be others out there like it.

May 11, 2012 12:34 PM
 
Schere

I'm pretty sure an Oriole got caught this way last year, too....and I think those are the only two I've ever seen, in more than 30 years of watching baseball games.

May 11, 2012 13:01 PM
rating: 0
 
Swingingbunts

I was at a Yankee game when Jack McDowell completely fooled the guy on 1st and successfully picked him off.

My question is why is this even being discussed? Is the rules committee bored? I don't get it?

May 11, 2012 12:10 PM
rating: 0
 
thatfnmb

I'm from Chicago and always heard this refereed to as the Black Jack McDowell play.

May 11, 2012 17:06 PM
rating: 0
 
Michael
(736)

I clearly have my Jeff Nelson etiquette wrong. I thought one was obliged to mention Nelson whenever discussion of a "frisbee curve" or "frisbee slider" came up.

May 11, 2012 12:17 PM
rating: 0
 
canada

Of all the things I would change in baseball, this is definitely #1. It is just so unfair to the baserunner on first!

In all seriousness, isn't the only point of this to catch guys at first going on first movement or stuck in REM sleep?

May 11, 2012 12:34 PM
rating: 1
 
boards

Completely agree. I've always hated the fact this is not a balk. A pitcher twitches because he's got a gnat flying around his ear with a runner on first and they call a balk because it "deceives the runner". But this move, which clearly is intended to deceive the runner is legal. Go figure.

While they're at it, make the fake to second a balk also.

May 11, 2012 15:48 PM
rating: 0
 
eeyore
(885)

At the college level, a few years ago I watched the Minnesota Golden Gophers pull this one off successfully twice in one game.

May 11, 2012 13:56 PM
rating: 0
 
JimmyJack

I always remember Rick Sutcliffe being awesome at this. Or at least Harry Caray telling us he was.

I don't get why this would even come up in a rule committee meeting when the first order of business should be enforcing the strike zone!

May 11, 2012 16:56 PM
rating: 0
 
Hendo

It's nice that the Playing Rules Committee is taking this baby step to eliminate time-wasters.

Now how about taking up a real proposal, such as the following:

If the batter steps out of the batter's box during his at-bat for any reason other than illness, duress or emergency, the umpire shall call a strike.

As Bill James says, stop fooling around and play baseball.

May 12, 2012 09:28 AM
rating: -1
 
SirVLCIV

I don't think that works unless the corresponding 'pitcher must deliver the ball within 12 seconds' is enforced.

Standing still, waiting for a pitch that may or may not come, requires some concentration, no blinking, etc. I often think batters step out just to blink.

May 13, 2012 06:47 AM
rating: 1
 
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