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April 5, 2012

Research Mailbag

Worst. Lineup. Ever.

by Bradley Ankrom

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Last week’s discussion of the worst pitchers started by defending World Series champions on Opening Day inspired me to look into the worst Opening Day starters period, regardless of where his team had finished the previous season. Claude Osteen, whom the Dodgers trotted out in Game One of their World Series title defense on April 12, 1966, doesn’t even sniff the title of “worst Opening Day starter ever”:

Worst Opening Day Starters Since 1951

Year

Pitcher

Team

Previous Year WARP

1969

Jim McGlothlin

California Angels

-2.128

1981

Mike Caldwell

Milwaukee Brewers

-1.481

1975

Randy Jones

San Diego Padres

-1.381

1977

Randy Jones

San Diego Padres

-1.264

1970

Joe Sparma

Montreal Expos

-1.201

1982

Randy Jones

New York Mets

-1.180

1980

Randy Jones

San Diego Padres

-1.082

1983

Rick Langford

Oakland Athletics

-1.053

1964

Ken McBride

Los Angeles Angels

-0.999

2010

Fausto Carmona

Cleveland Indians

-0.998

Osteen’s 0.027 WARP in 1965 ranks as the 94th-worst previous-year WARP for an Opening Day starter since 1951, and he is one of 11 pitchers to appear multiple times among the dregs of the bottom 100.

Pitchers Making Multiple Appearances Among Worst 100 Opening Day Starters Since 1951

Pitcher

Appearances

Randy Jones

5 - 1975 Padres, 1976 Padres, 1977 Padres, 1980 Padres, 1982 Mets

Mike Torrez

4 - 1973 Expos, 1976 Athletics, 1977 Athletics, 1978 Red Sox, 1984 Mets

Joe Coleman

2 - 1975 Tigers, 1976 Tigers

Bob Friend

2 - 1954 Pirates, 1956 Pirates

Rick Langford

2 - 1982 Athletics, 1983 Athletics

John Lannan

2 - 2009 Nationals, 2010 Nationals

Ken McBride

2 - 1963 Angels, 1964 Angels

Mike Moore

2 - 1994 Tigers, 1995 Tigers

Claude Osteen

2 - 1966 Dodgers, 1964 Senators

Gerry Staley

2 - 1952 Cardinals, 1953 Cardinals

Mel Stottlemyre

2 - 1967 Yankees, 1969 Yankees

With that out of the way, let's move on to new business. Today we'll take a look at pitchers piling up wins but not throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, organization depth as a precursor to spring training success, and the worst Opening Day lineups of the modern era. If you have a question you would like to have answered, please send me an e-mail or reach out via one of the myriad contact links on this page (be sure to include your full name and hometown).

How many pitchers who didn't throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title have placed among the top five in wins in a given MLB season?

Kyle Eliason
St. Paul, MN

Since 1950, it has taken an average of 17.387 wins to crack the top five, a feat that has grown more difficult as the role of the bullpen has evolved, resulting in shorter outings by starters and fewer innings per appearance by relievers. Given that, it’s no wonder 30 years have passed since Bob Stanley’s 10 wins out of the Red Sox bullpen in 1981 earned him a tie with nine others for the fifth-most wins in baseball.

Pittsburgh reliever Roy Face compiled an 18-1 record in 57 appearances in 1959, tying with Vern Law and Bob Shaw for fourth place. Face was one of seven players to pitch in 50 or more games without making a single start that year, and one of only three to do it in both 1958 and 1959 (Don Elston and the aforementioned Gerry Staley were the others).

This year's top 4 spring training teams (St. Louis, San Diego, Oakland, and Toronto) all have strong farm systems. Is it a case of "our AA and AAA guys are crushing yours" or is it just "we attract more interesting former major leaguers than you do" or is it completely random? Is the top four's correlation with farm talent just a coincidence this year? 

John Franco
Pittsburgh, PA

Each March, we’re reminded that spring training player statistics and team won-lost records are poor predictors of performance in the upcoming season. For the most part, that advice is correct.

Between 2006-2011, the difference between a team’s spring training and regular season winning percentages has ranged wildly, from -0.256 to 0.255, reaffirming conventional wisdom that spring training won-lost records are meaningless.

John’s question of whether there is correlation between farm system strength and team spring training performance is something I hadn’t considered before. To test his theory, I turned to the organization talent rankings Kevin Goldstein has compiled each offseason since 2007. I compared Kevin’s ranking of an organization with its spring training winning percentage, but found little evidence that system-wide talent depth played a part in a team’s spring training success.

The trend is more apparent when the data is aggregated by rank, but still isn’t enough to support any conclusions. I suspect stronger correlation could be found if rankings of upper-level, rather than organizational, talent were used, however.

In 2012, Kevin had San Diego and Toronto atop his rankings, but for different reasons. Five of the Padres’ top 11 prospects played at or above Double-A last year, while nine of the Blue Jays’ top 11 saw time at Class-A or below. The Padres boast a deep supply of upper-level talent that is likely to reach the majors, though unlikely to develop into stars. Contrast that with Toronto, whose farm is shallower (but not shallow) at the top but includes several prospects with star potential at various levels within the organization.

As it is with September stats, numbers accrued during spring training are subject to far too many variables to be useful on either end of a cause-effect inquiry. Aside from the ranging levels of talent deployed, pitchers are not at full strength when spring games begin and only throw full outings in the days leading up to the start of the regular season. Because spring training games don’t count, a pitcher is free to experiment and tinker with grips, mechanics, and new pitches altogether, further diminishing the reliability of the data earned by players and teams.

Which team has had the most potential in history? That is, the one with the most future WARP from its opening day roster? What team had the least?

David Kociemba
Watertown, MA

Unfortunately, I don’t have each team’s Opening Day roster available. What we can do, however, is look at which teams have had the most (and least) future WARP in their Opening Day lineups. We’ll cut the search off at the year 2000 so as to have a healthy number of seasons for each lineup to work with.

The starting nine fielded by the Milwaukee Braves on Opening Day 1955 featured six players who would go on to be worth at least 15 wins above replacement from that day forward, including a 21-year-old Henry Louis Aaron:

Milwaukee Braves Opening Day Lineup, April 12, 1955

Lineup

Player

Future WARP

1

Bill Bruton

31.05

2

Hank Aaron

147.88

3

Eddie Mathews

73.94

4

Bobby Thomson

8.24

5

Joe Adcock

22.62

6

Johnny Logan

17.36

7

Jack Dittmer

-0.72

8

Del Crandall

22.99

9

Warren Spahn

12.39

Aaron and Mathews carried the Braves to the top four spots on our list, and the 1960-61 San Francisco Giants—led by Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, and Orlando Cepeda—are the only other franchise to appear multiple times among the top eight.

Best Opening Day Lineups by Future WARP

Rank

Year

Team

Future WARP

1

1955

Milwaukee Braves

335.73

2

1954

Milwaukee Braves

330.08

3

1956

Milwaukee Braves

320.51

4

1957

Milwaukee Braves

292.99

5

1961

San Francisco Giants

290.77

6

1963

Cincinnati Reds

277.14

7

1991

Houston Astros

267.43

8

1960

San Francisco Giants

263.21

9

1976

Boston Red Sox

260.27

10

1992

Houston Astros

260.03

The Seattle Mariners rolled out the worst Opening Day lineup of all time—at least in terms of future WARP—on April 9, 1980. Only first baseman Bruce Bochte (7.14) and second baseman Julio Cruz (5.55) performed at an above-replacement level for the remainder of their careers; the rest of the Mariners lineup combined for -6.46 WARP.

Opening Day in the Devil Rays' inaugural season is worth a mention, but not because of how bad Tampa Bay’s lineup was; rather, how spectacular it used to be. Hometown heroes Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff combined for 112.2 career WARP prior to teaming up in the heart of the Devil Rays’ lineup in 1998. The two would be worth only 5.8 WARP over the next nine seasons.

Worst Opening Day Lineups by Future WARP

Rank

Year

Team

Future WARP

1156

1980

Seattle Mariners

6.23

1155

1998

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

7.57

1154

1988

Atlanta Braves

8.17

1153

1982

Seattle Mariners

10.28

1152

2000

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

13.11

1151

1963

New York Mets

14.88

1150

1961

Washington Senators

16.48

1149

1980

New York Mets

16.54

1148

1974

Detroit Tigers

16.59

1147

1977

Toronto Blue Jays

16.81

 

Related Content:  Milwaukee Braves,  Worst Seasons,  Opening Day

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

FastballVelociraptor

Can someone explain why Randy Jones had such bad WARPs? Wasn't he considered an ace? His traditional stats (other than Ks) looked great a couple years, how could his WARP be THAT bad?

Apr 05, 2012 07:04 AM
rating: 2
 
Schlom

There must be some sort of mistake with his stats. When he won the Cy Young in 1976, BP has him at -1.3 WARP. However BR has him at 5.1 and Fangraphs at 4.6. In 1975 he has a 7.7 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR but BP has him at -0.1 WARP. For his career he's at 19.7 bWAR, 20.3 fWAR and -4.1 bpWARP.

I know that each system computes their numbers differently so there will be differences but this seems kind of extreme.

Apr 05, 2012 10:40 AM
rating: 1
 
misterjohnny
(925)

Something seems off in the WARP for Randy Jones. In 1976, he had an ERA+ (source: baseball reference) of 120, a WHIP of 1.027, and a WAR of 5.1. Yet on his BP card he shows a WARP of -1.3 in 1976. Smells fishy.

Apr 05, 2012 09:58 AM
rating: 1
 
doncoffin
(422)

Interesting how many of the "worst" opening day lineups were those of expansion teams, or very recent expansion teams. The only three "established" teams are the Braves in 1988, the Mets in 1980, and the Tigers in 1974. I wonder what you'd get if you established a cutoff of 10+ years of existence for the team.

Apr 05, 2012 10:59 AM
rating: 0
 
Pat Folz

Jones' FRA is usually pretty bad considering the run environment, hence the low WARPs. I guess that means he had really good sequencing luck, or something?

Colin, or whoever at BP: we really, really, really need a detailed assessment of FRA, and comparisons with FIP, SIERA, etc. It could be right, but it spits out enough head-scratching valuations that I can't really trust it without more convincing (See also: Cain, Matt and Hernandez, Felix).

Apr 05, 2012 11:14 AM
rating: 1
 
Bradley Ankrom

Pat hit it on the head, Jones' surprisingly-low WARP totals stem from his egregious FRAs. We can approach the topic of "worst Opening Day starters" from a previous-year FRA angle, which gives us the following:

1. Chris Short (1970, PHI) - 7.77 FRA
2. Darryl Kile (2000, SLN) - 7.29
3. Mike Moore (1995, DET) - 7.13
4. Randy Jones (1982, NYN) - 6.94
5. Bud Podbielan (1953, CIN) - 6.81
6. Kevin Ritz (1997, COL) - 6.70
7. Mario Soto (1988, CIN) - 6.60
8. Fausto Carmona (2010, CLE) - 6.57
9. Scott Schoeneweis (2001, ANA) - 6.52
10. Terry Mulholland (1995, SFN) - 6.49

Apr 05, 2012 11:55 AM
rating: 0
 
misterjohnny
(925)

So the Million Dollar question is, why does the 1976 Randy Jones, who won the Cy Young award, have such egregious FRAs that it makes him a below replacement level pitcher?

I understand that the BBWA gets awards wrong, but I'm pretty sure they've never given a Cy Young award to a below replacement level pitcher.

Apr 05, 2012 15:47 PM
rating: 0
 
Bradley Ankrom

I hate to be the that guy, but... his BABIP was .038 below the league average in 1976, which was a factor in his FRA that year.

Jones inspired a bit of discussion at BP today, and I'll paste some of what Rob McQuown had to say here:

"I think that while we may indeed find flaws in the system, in Jones case, there will always be things are are difficult for people to wrap their intuitive minds around, given the 'Old School' mindset of ERA (or wins or whatever) being a prime indicator of pitcher goodness. In Jones' case, he combined fairly high levels of unearned runs (i.e. fielders making errors behind him) with BABIPs that were good (sometimes exceptional), compared to the league BABIPs. So, ERA double-credits him for his fielders, both removing any blame for errors behind him (unearned runs), and ALSO giving him full credit for the range of the players (lower BABIP than average fielding would provide).

FAIR_RA (or FRA) theoretically removes all of this from the pitcher's hands - instead utilizing league averages for turning these balls into outs. It's more complicated than that, but I do think that his low VORPs and WARPs (driven by high FRAs) are demonstrative of something that can be explained and could prove educational to thinking baseball fans.

Whatever I find in the WARP formulae, probably the big bone of contention will be the starting assumption that only "three true outcomes" are under a pitcher's control (essentially), and the rest is just environment/fielding/luck."

Apr 05, 2012 16:30 PM
rating: 0
 
misterjohnny
(925)

Well his career BABIP was .272 over 1900 innings pitched, so I would think that he has shown an ability to have a lower than average BABIP. Thus it wouldn't be all luck.

It seems like FRA is punishing him (brutally) for not being a high strikeout pitcher. He was a ground ball pitcher who didn't walk guys and kept the ball in the park. I'm not sure FRA is the best measure here.

Put it this way, if you were the General Manager of the Padres in the 70's, would you waive this guy? He's below replacement level...

Apr 05, 2012 17:09 PM
rating: 2
 
Pat Folz

Yeah, I'll buy that traditional stats and even FIP may overrate him quite a bit, but there's just no way that 315 innings of better-than-average ERA is worth over a win *below* replacement level (1976).

It's not like that was some one-year BABIP fluke or anything; dude's run prevention was pretty solid throughout his career.

Apr 05, 2012 21:19 PM
rating: 0
 
Pat Folz

The thing is, everything that is said in those quoted paragraphs, stripping out defense, etc., also applies to FIP, right? Jones' FIPs are still pretty good.

At any rate, FRA does a lot more than just look at TTO, right? Looking at 1976 vs. 1978, his FIPs are quite similar, why is FRA a full run lower in 78? I notice his BABIP was quite a bit higher in 78 than 76, so given similar FIP* it might attribute more run prevention that year to the pitcher....but does that really make sense? If the things with known good year-to-year and run prevention correlations are similar, why would *increasing* the rate of hits allowed *reduce* the number of runs attributed to him?

*the other thing of course is that his HR/9 is way lower in 1978, and I wrote a long thing about that before noticing the BABIPs, but long story short K and UBB rates were better in 76 so FIP works out to be similar, and I estimate it should only change his RA by at most about .3, not 1.0, so unless his HR rate is in a denominator somewhere that shouldn't be it...

Apr 05, 2012 21:10 PM
rating: 1
 
sordfish

And the Former Fausto lived up to his bad WARP billing last year. 3 innings. 10 earned runs.

Apr 05, 2012 17:53 PM
rating: 0
 
salvomania
(449)

I think if your metric doesn't pass the smell test, then you need to look closely at it and refine it.

There's no way any starting pitcher throws 315 innings with a WHIP of 1, with 5 shutouts and an ERA more than a run below the league average, and measures as below replacement level.

With certain anomalous guys, maybe they provide an opportunity to figure out how the stat can be better calibrated, rather than assume that what seems to be true to everyone else---I mean, actual results do mean something, especially over a large sample---is in fact wrong, at least according to the formula.

Apr 06, 2012 09:36 AM
rating: 1
 
BrewersTT

Makes sense.
If the Padres' defense of that era was so superior that it made a sub-replacement pitcher look like an ace, and none of that out creation was really to Jones's own credit, then the Padres' staff should have had two or three apparent aces every year, at least. This was not the case.

Apr 09, 2012 12:38 PM
rating: 0
 
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