CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (12/02)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/29)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (12/08)
Next Article >>
Collateral Damage: Rou... (12/05)

December 5, 2011

Resident Fantasy Genius

Fantasy Fallout for 12/5/11

by Derek Carty

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

While I’ve taken to posting my thoughts on off-season transactions on Twitter (@DerekCarty), there’s only so much one can convey in 140 characters, so I’ll occasionally be running down the fantasy ramifications of these transactions here at BP. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen a few not-major-but-not-really-minor-either moves take place, some of which will make a player’s value plummet, while others have created great buying opportunities for fantasy owners.

David DeJesus | Chicago Cubs | OF | Signed as Free Agent
The DeJesus signing received mixed reactions among the baseball intelligentsia, but I think it’s a solid move both for the Cubs and for DeJesus’ fantasy value. DeJesus is one of those guys that gets overlooked because he’s good at everything but great at nothing—both in terms of real-world and fantasy attributes. And given his poor 2011 season—which he recently said was, in part, to blame on not being 100 percent following the hand surgery that cut his 2010 season short—there will be many a fantasy owner wary of drafting him in 2012.

While there’s definitely some risk—his strikeout rate rose precipitously in 2011 and his BABIP was a career low—the environment change should prove appealing enough to warrant taking that risk. Wrigley increases lefty big flies 20 percent over McAfee Coliseum, which will likely push DeJesus into the mid-teens range for homers. There’s also some indication that new Cubs manager Dale Sveum will be aggressive with his baserunners, and his leadoff man figures to be one of the prime beneficiaries of such an approach. DeJesus doesn’t have elite speed by any means, but he is above average and has double-digit steal upside.

DeJesus’ value is boosted because he is expected to lead off for the Cubs. Starlin Castro will follow him, but with Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, and Aramis Ramirez likely departing, it’s yet to be seen who else will be around to drive him in. In any case, this is what really makes DeJesus appealing, as a guy with moderate power and speed, and a history of good batting averages and scoring runs has quite a bit of fantasy value. A .280-15-10-85 line would not be out of the question, and would make a lot of fantasy owners very happy.

Brett Jackson loses some value from the deal, as there is no longer a spot open for him in the Chicago outfield, but it seems likely that Soriano will be traded, opening a spot back up. The Cubs are reportedly willing to pay half of Soriano’s salary in a potential deal for the outfielder who has little place in their future plans, so Jackson’s value is likely to bounce back later this offseason.
Value Change: Gain for DeJesus; Loss for Brett Jackson (for the time being)

Chris Iannetta | Los Angeles Angels | C | Acquired via Trade
Ryan Doumit | Minnesota Twins | C | Signed as Free Agent
Rod Barajas | Pittsburgh Pirates | C | Signed as Free Agent
Three catchers whose primary contribution to a team—fantasy or otherwise—is power changed cities over the past couple of weeks, but no team gets better. While LA is the best park for homers of the three new locales, leaving the friendly confines of Colorado’s Coors Field will prove devastating for Iannetta, as there’s a nearly 30 percent difference between the two parks in terms of righty home runs. The move pushes Jeff Mathis out of the starting spot (out of LA entirely, actually, since he has since been traded to Toronto), but that seemed inevitable once Jerry DiPoto sat down in the GM chair. Free-agent signee Ramon Hernandez will take over backstop duty in Colorado, but there’s not much difference for him coming from Cincy’s Great American Ballpark with a similarly-talented supporting cast.

I had a lot of hope for the switch-hitting Doumit coming out of Pittsburgh’s PNC Park—third-worst in baseball for righty homers and well below average for lefties—this winter, but his move to another low-offense team, Target Field, and the more difficult American League is a lateral move at best. He’ll still have some value, but it won’t be the spike that it could have been elsewhere.

As the previous paragraph intimates, Barajas coming into Pittsburgh to replace Doumit is bad news. Dodger Stadium, his previous home, wasn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise, but there’s still a nearly 20 percent difference in righty homers between the two parks.
Value Change: Big Loss for Iannetta; Big Loss for Barajas; No Change for Doumit

Smaller Moves

  • Chris Capuano makes a pretty lateral move from the Mets to the Dodgers, and although the move received some criticism, I’m of the belief that Capuano will be a good value in fantasy leagues this season. A sub-4.00 ERA wouldn’t surprise me in the least. The move hurts Hiroki Kuroda’s value, who up until recently was saying he’d move back to Japan if he didn’t stay in LA, but now there’s word that he could be open to playing elsewhere in America.
  • Clint Barmes loses a lot of value in signing with Pittsburgh, which we’ve already established is a terrible home for a guy whose only real fantasy tool is power.
  • Jonathan Broxton, who entered the market as a closer,will definitely not be closing games in 2012 unless Joakim Soria gets hurt, but the move facilitates Aaron Crow’s transition to the rotation, which boosts his value tremendously.
  • Jeff Mathis gains a small amount of value in the trade to Toronto. It’s a slightly better park, but his hitting skills are virtually non-existent anyway, and he’ll remain in a backup role.
  • Tyler Chatwood loses value moving to Colorado. It’s an easier league but much more difficult park, and he’s not very good to begin with.
  • Wade LeBlanc loses value in Miami. He leaves PETCO Park and, while he wasn’t guaranteed a rotation spot in San Diego, it may be more difficult to secure one with the Marlins given the presence of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Clay Hensley, Chris Volstad, Alex Sanabia, the possible return of Javier Vazquez, and Miami’s apparent interest in free agents like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle. The competition for the last spot or two in Miami’s rotation will be much more battle royal than duel this spring.
  • Taylor Teagarden gains some value in his move to Baltimore. Instead of being organizational depth for Texas, he becomes the back-up catcher to Matt Wieters, and he has some pop that could play well in Camden Yards. Still, he’s merely a late-round AL-only pick.

9 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

harderj

I'm amazed that Pittsburgh is a tougher place for a right-handed hitter to homer in than Dodger Stadium is, so thanks for that. Established perceptions die hard.

Dec 05, 2011 01:12 AM
rating: 0
 
Scott44

Derek - What's your take on the Reyes signing for Benefacio? Presumably Ramirez moves to third and Benefacio to CF. In terms of his spot in the lineup, it previously looked like 1. Benefacio 2. Infante 3. Hanley 4. Stanton

Does Benefacio now supplant Infante in the 2 hole, or do you think he is going to move down to the 7 or 8 hole? This would certainly affect his value, imo. Thoughts.

Dec 05, 2011 08:08 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, the Reyes signing could definitely affect Bonifacio's value. He may not even start every day in CF with Coghlan still hanging around. While I haven't heard anything definitive yet about the batting order, there seems to be a few possibilities, but if the Fish sign Pujols, it could all become a moot point. In that case, it would be conceivable to see Hanley bat second with some combination of Stanton, Pujols, LoMo, and Sanchez 3-4-5-6. Assuming the Marlins can't sign Pujols, I think it's a bit more likely that Bonifacio moves down than Infante does, but I'd wait to hear what the team says before thinking anything's set in stone.

Dec 05, 2011 08:52 AM
 
Dan W.

Derek, If they sign Pujols, how do you figure that he, Stanton, Morrison, and Sanchez are all going to be in the starting lineup? I can't imagine any of them in CF. Or was that a typo?

Dec 05, 2011 10:14 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Ah, yeah, typo. I had been thinking late last night, for the sake of my own amusement, of possible ways to fit them all into the lineup--the most creative way would be convincing Hanley to move to CF and putting Pujols or Sanchez at 3B, where he played some in the minors--and was still in that mindframe. More likely, I think we'd see LoMo or Sanchez dealt since there wouldn't be room for them all otherwise. And even then, if LoMo is dealt, as it seems he might be Miami's top choice to go, they'd still have Sanchez to figure out a spot for. I don't know if they'd try to transition him to the OF or what, so it'll be interesting to see what happens if they do actually end up with Pujols.

Dec 05, 2011 10:20 AM
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Bonifacio will bat #2, according to the Marlins during Reyes's press conference.

Dec 07, 2011 09:17 AM
 
McLovins

I'm amazed that you put a reference in for Battle Royale and Duel, but didn't include links! Well, at least for BR: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-T7yPJVvXw

Dec 05, 2011 10:20 AM
rating: -1
 
LoyalRoyal

How do you see the Cincy C position shaking now? Is Hanigan finally set free or are we looking at a platoon with Mesoraco now? Thanks...

Dec 05, 2011 11:39 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I think Mesoraco gets the most PT no matter what, as long as he starts off the year playing well, but it's possible that the Reds trade Hanigan. If he's still around, I think he plays more than a backup catcher but maybe not a perfect 50/50 split like with Hernandez. It's also possible the Reds stick with Hanigan, deal Mesoraco, and eventually let Grandal replace Hanigan.

Dec 05, 2011 12:12 PM
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Baseball Prospectus Ne... (12/02)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (11/29)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (12/08)
Next Article >>
Collateral Damage: Rou... (12/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Fiiiiiiiiiiight!
Premium Article The Call-Up: Kevin Plawecki
Premium Article The Call-Up: Carlos Rodon
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of April 17-19, 2...
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 20, 2015
BP Wrigleyville
Tools of Ignorance: The San Diego Hedgehogs?

MORE FROM DECEMBER 5, 2011
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Going to Miami
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: Fielder Dreams?
Collateral Damage: Rounding Up the Usual Sus...
The BP First Take: Monday, December 5

MORE BY DEREK CARTY
2011-12-16 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Second-Tier Japanes...
2011-12-12 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Cespedes Scoop
2011-12-08 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: New Fish in the Sea
2011-12-05 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Fallout for...
2011-12-02 - Premium Article The Great Debaters: Ike Davis vs. James Lone...
2011-11-29 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: How Do We Measure A...
2011-11-21 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Voting Outrage
More...

MORE RESIDENT FANTASY GENIUS
2011-12-16 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Second-Tier Japanes...
2011-12-12 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Cespedes Scoop
2011-12-08 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: New Fish in the Sea
2011-12-05 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Fallout for...
2011-11-29 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: How Do We Measure A...
2011-11-21 - Premium Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Voting Outrage
2011-11-14 - Resident Fantasy Genius: Reviewing "Clubhous...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-03-20 - Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Tier Rankin...