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Hello. Remember me? I’m fantasy baseball. I know it is September and now that college football and pro football are both underway, I am like the forgotten leftovers in the back of the fridge. With just two and a half scoring periods left, there is not much you are going to be able to do with your roster, but there have definitely been several interesting statistical stories happening over the last few weeks that may have been overlooked by most of you.  The correlation between late season success and the following season’s success is not terribly strong, but before Jose Bautista became Joey Bats, he was hitting home runs in September of ’09, and nobody noticed because they were watching football. Before Ben Zobrist had his breakout 2009, he had an excellent September in 2008 to help push the Rays into their first ever postseason berth while nobody noticed. With that in mind, did you know….

Ryan Braun has stopped running. In the second half of August, Braun was a running fool as he stole ten bases from August 13th until the end of the month. Since then, the wheels have stopped spinning as Braun has attempted just one stolen base in the month of September. He has been on first base thirteen times this month either via the single or the walk but has yet to convert a successful steal in this critical final month.

Adam Lind has run out of patience. In 2009, Lind had a nine percent walk rate and cut down on his strikeouts as he had a career year at the plate. Since then, fantasy owners have waited for that Adam Lind to return, but he very well may never do so. His walk rate last season was just over six percent, and this season it is below that. He has just three walks in his last 90 at bats and has hit .189 during that stretch. He is not exactly closing out 2011 with a fury either. In the first three months, he hit .312 with a .933 OPS, but since July 1st, Lind is hitting just .198 with a .557 OPS as his walk rate went from eight percent to four percent. He is playing right into the pitchers’ hands these days.

So is Chase Utley. From 2005 to 2010, Utley’s walk rate was anywhere from 8.2 percent to 12.8 percent, but he is currently at 8.1 percent and fading fast. He has just four walks in the past month and is hitting .214 with a .688 OPS. After walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances over the first three months of his injury-shortened 2011, he has dropped down to seven percent since July while his average has fallen 37 points and his OPS another 68 points. Do the injuries and the down season provide a 2012 draft discount, or are the days of Utley as a premier fantasy middle infielder over?

Brandon Allen has been exposed. The week after I traded Brandon Allen to Matthew Berry in AL Tout Wars for Kevin Slowey (don’t ask), he had a very hot week hitting three home runs including that prodigious blast in Yankee Stadium. Since that time, it was been a different story as pitchers quickly found Allen’s holes, and he has been unable to stop the bleeding. In the 14 games since his last home run, Allen has had ten games during which he has struck out at least twice including four hat tricks. In all, he has seven walks and 27 strikeouts in his last 53 at bats with just two extra base hits to show for it.

So has Mike Carp. Carp was a great story in August when he hit .313 with an .892 OPS, blasting six homers and driving in 25 runs for a Mariners team that seemingly scored 26 runs that month. He had some extremely good fortune in terms of BABIP luck, and one in every four of his fly balls were leaving the yard. All good things must come to an end, however, and it’s been a rough ending for him in 2011. Over the past month, he has hit just .219 with a .700 OPS while striking out in 32 percent of his plate appearances. He does have five home runs in that span, but that line looks very much like the guy he replaced: Jack Cust.

Matt Wieters is getting stronger. From 2009 to 2010, Wieters hit 20 home runs in 887 plate appearances; he has 18 this season in 496 plate appearances this year. In each of the previous two seasons, his home run to fly ball rate was a pedestrian eight percent, but that rate currently sits at 12 percent this season. Over the past month, that rate is at a strong 31 percent, and he has hit eight of his 18 home runs in his last 83 at-bats. Next March, he and Alex Avila will be the catchers people are spending $20+ on rather than Joe Mauer.

So is Peter Bourjos. Bourjos hit three home runs from April through the end of July but has hit eight since the beginning of August. That push has allowed him to become one of just 22 outfielders this season to have double-digit home run and stolen base totals. The speed is always there with him, and if he could get on base more often next season, the steals could double. However, the power growth has come more recently rather than being spread out across the entire season, and if he can continue that next season, there is an outside shot at a 20/40 season.

Jeremy Hellickson pitches to contact. You watch him pitch and see the swings and misses he piles up at times with his excellent change-up, but his strikeout rate per nine innings is under 6.0 this season. It was 6.2 in the first half but has fallen off a full strikeout to 5.2 in the second half, and in two September starts, he has just three more strikeouts than you and I do on the mound. He has a high fly ball rate, but he also has one of the highest infield flyout rates in the league (which doesn’t look too flukey). The large gap between his ERA and FIP right now raise some flags for March drafts, but 16 wins and a 1.16 WHIP since his call-up last August are nothing to turn your nose up at.

Madison Bumgarner is the exact opposite. Last season, Bumgarner’s strikeouts per nine rate was exactly 7.0, and in the first half of this season, he has bumped that up slightly to 7.6. That rate has jumped even higher in the second half, however, to an excellent 9.6 K/9 as he closes the season with a flourish. Bumgarner has 63 strikeouts in his last 56 innings with just 15 walks and has earned a decision (5-2 record) in seven of his eight starts during that stretch thanks to a 2.22 ERA since August 1. It is easy to get overlooked in San Francisco with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the staff, but Bumgarner is helping a lot of fantasy owners down the home stretch.

CC Sabathia is good. Did you know that Sabathia has the highest BABIP of any pitcher in baseball over the last month at .415? Normally, that kind of number would lead to horrific numbers, but the big fella is 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA (2.34 FIP) during that stretch despite a 1.49 WHIP thanks to a strikeout rate of 11.0 to go with his typically low walk rate. The trend in the national press is to start engraving Justin Verlander’s name on the Cy Young Award, but it’s a shame that Sabathia is not getting more involved in these discussions because he deserves it as much as Verlander does this season.

Thank you for reading

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surfdent48
9/13
Hellickson is very fortunate so far and his numbers will normalize over time.
raygu1
9/14
good stuff Jason!!
Dodger300
9/14
Sabathia , of course, is one of the top pitchers in the league.

But when it comes to the Cy Young Award, any suggestion that he "deserves it as much as Verlander does this season" is just plain silly.

It really calls into question the credibility of the writer.

moonlightj
9/14
Why? Because my opinion differs from yours?

Taking off my neutral analyst hat for a second, anyone who knows me knows I can't stand the Yankees so for me to put out a statement like that says something.

But set aside my opinion and let's look at the facts - all from our own BP stat search engine

Quality Starts:
Sabathia 23
Verlander 22

Support Neutral Winning Percentage:
Sabathia .598
Verlander .568

Unintentional Walk Rate:
both at 6%

Strikeout rate:
Sabathia 23%
Verlander 26%

Home run rate:
Sabathia 0.6%, in the AL East, in a tougher park
Verlander 0.9%

BABIP/OppBA:
Sabathia .317/.251
Verlander .236/.191

ERA/FIP
Sabathia - 2.93/2.83
Verlander - 2.44/2.99

VORP:
Sabathia 49.9
Verlander 48.8

So, why exactly is it silly to say CC deserves it as much as Verlander?

Dodger300
9/14
I'm pleased you hate the Yankees, but I'm sure we both agree that should have nothing to do with this discussion.

Traditional metrics:

Verlander 2011 League Ranks:
• 1st in AL in W (23)
• 1st in AL in IP (236.0)
• 1st in AL in SO (238)
• 1st in AL in ERA (2.36)
• 1st in AL in WHIP (0.92)
• 1st in AL in W% (.821)

Sabathia 2011 League Ranks:
• 2nd in AL in W (19)
• 3rd in AL in IP (224.1)
• 2nd in AL in SO (216)
• 5th in AL in ERA (2.93)
• 5th in AL in W% (.704)

Sorry that I couldn't locate all of the metrics you used, but let's update the ones I could find and add a bit more:

Quality starts:
• Verlander 27 according to this BP site, not 22
• Sabathia 21 acccording to this BP site, not 23

ERA/FIP
• Verlander 2.36/2.96
• Sabathia 2.93/2.83

VORP:
• Verlander 51.5
• Sabathia 50.0

WARP:
• Verlander 5.7
• Sabathia 5.0

BB/9
• Verlander 2.02
• Sabathia 2.21

Strikeouts/9
• Verlander 9.08
• Sabathia 8.67

HR/9

• Verlander 0.84
• Sabathia 0.60

WPA
• Verlander 4.63
• Sabathia 3.79

It seems that you must only value FIP, SNWP, and HR rate, and that you discount everything else.

Because other than those three categories, Verlander easily beats Sabathia across the board.










moonlightj
9/14
Looks like some of the stats updated overnight because the numbers I pulled were as of 10p last night.

What I don't value is wins, winning percentage, or any other total that comes from throwing a lot of pitches. Wins are as much about run support as they are pitching skill as we see David Price is 12-12 thanks to the Rays scoring 2 or less runs in 14 of his starts this season.

BB/9...K/9 -- you're talking about rates nearly identical to one another there.

This is not as cut and dry as some make it out to be and I think it's as foolish to dismiss CC from the discussion this season as it was by some to anoint him as the winner last season despite the fact Hernandez was the better pitcher.

I'm cool with either guy winning it but I'm not cool with it not being up for discussion and that's how I see it playing out right now with those that have the votes.
Dodger300
9/17
"What I don't value is wins, winning percentage, or any other total that comes from throwing a lot of pitches."

You don't seriously mean that. You would not support someone with 40 innings, or even 120 innings, for the Cy Young Award.

"Throwing lots of pitches" doesn't decide who gets the award, but yes, it matters.

This type of hyperbole is not necessary, and actually distracts from making your point, as readers will discount what you are trying to say.

If you had originally written that Sabathia belongs in the "discussion" for the Cy Young (meaning second or third on the ballot, not first), as you wrote in your follow up, there would have never been an issue here.

But saying that he "deserves it as much as Verlander does" diminished your praise of Sabathia's excellent season, as your readers immediate reaction is to shake their heads, knowing that is just not the case.

If you try toning it down just a bit in the future, it will elevate your writing.
moonlightj
9/17
Yes, I do mean that.

When we have 2 candidates that are close together, the guy that has thrown 100 more pitches or 10-15 more innings than the other doesn't matter to me as much as what he did within those innings.

"it" is the discussion for the award and if I lose readers who thinks I'm being hyperbolic for the sake of click-thru's while gaining other readers who appreciate an open mind, so be it.

Again, the national discussion between these two are as if one is in first class and one is in steerage on a cruise ship and that's simply not the case.

Admittedly, him crapping the bed in Toronto last night hurts his case.
markpadden
9/20
It comes down to whether you think awards should be given based on what "should have" happened or what did actually happen. I "happen" to think actual results should determine awards, regardless of the role luck is assumed to have played in said results.
Dodger300
9/25
I agree that the 10-15 innings difference between Verlander and Sabathia don't mean much, but that isn't what you wrote, is it? Check for youirself:

"What I don't value is wins, winning percentage, or any other total that comes from throwing a lot of pitches."

My response was "You don't seriously mean that. You would not support someone with 40 innings, or even 120 innings, for the Cy Young Award."

You completely ignored the examples I gave to dispute your assertion. We can easily assume is because you would have to admit that I am right.

You wouldn't vote for someone with only 40 innings for the Cy Yong Award, would you?

Now I will respectively suggest that if you work at toning down this defensiveness, along with your propensity for exaggeration in your writing, you will become much better at your craft.
moonlightj
9/25
60 IP would get my vote over a staff ace. Innings are a counting category so I will ignore the fact that one guy threw 200 IP and on thew 220 IP. After all, because one guy threw under a Dusty Baker disciple while one threw under a pitch count disciple shouldnt matter.

I have never, ever, supported relievers for Cy Young no matter how awesome their skills are in any one season because I believe a staff ace coukd come in and do just as well as any closer if they knew they onky had to pace themself for 30 pitches and got to face hitters coming in cold off the bench as pinch hitters.

If you have read me long enough to form your opinions of me, you would know that. I am not going to apologize for trying to encourage a larger discussion for something I felt deserved more attention at the time this piece was originally published.
Dodger300
9/26
Okay, I'll bite. Let's continue with that larger discussion.

Please name the starting pitchers who only threw 60 innings (give-or-take) who you would have voted first place on your Cy Young ballot over the years.

There is no restrictions concerning what year they came from, so that gives you a lot of latitiude to come up with at least 2-3 Cy Young worthy names.

Strike years should be reduced proportionately, of course.

moonlightj
9/26
That's an iPad typo....that should be "wouldn't" as the 1st sentence goes against my other points.
Dodger300
9/26
Heck, to be generous, let's make it any starter with less than 100 innings who deserved to be voted the Cy Young as the best pitcher in the league that year, okay?
Dodger300
9/26
Oh, okay then. Thanks for the correction.

I am the king of typos so I can easily forgive them.

I thought you were saying you would vote for a starter with 60 innings, but not a reliever.

I know it sounded crazy, but then you've written some crazy stuff lately, such as "What I don't value is wins, winning percentage, or any other total that comes from throwing a lot of pitches."

Since innings pitched it the primary statistic that comes from throwing a lot of pitches, it sure soundedlike you could care less about that stat. Which is why I felt I had to question.

So now I see that "throwing a lot of pitches," at least in regards to more than 60 innings, DOES matter to you after all. See, we are closer in our opinions than you thought!

Of course, if the writing had been more clear initially, such as "10-15 more innings doesn't matter much to me," we would have known that from the start.

But I took your exageration literally, assuming that you had some overarching point that I was just too dim to grasp.

moonlightj
9/26
I'm more impressed with the guy the guy who does more with less.

Example: Shields has thrown 3459 pitches this season in 240.2 innings of work and that IP total trails only Verlander. Yet, Shields is just 9th in total pitches in the AL and has thrown nearly 600 less pitches than Verlander (581 to be exact). To me, that's a category in grading a pitcher and the fact Shields has done nearly as much from a IP perspective as Verlander, with 12% less pitches deserves a better grade in my book. That's 12% less pitches with just 4% less innings which gets back to my original point of he who throws the most amount of innings doesn't win anything.

After all, most would be surprised to know that Shields has a better ERA than Verlander vs opponents above .500 this season and 18 of his 32 starts (135 IP) have come against that level of competition whereas Verlander has had just 14 starts (104.1 IP) of work. Part of me wonders what Shields's case would be had he not gone just 9-7 in those starts despite posting a 2.19 ERA in those games since his offense could not support him like the Tigers did Verlander (8-2, 2.24).
Dodger300
11/16
Well, now it is November 16. The Cy Young results are in and Verlander is the unanimous winner. Weaver finished second and Shields finished third.

Sabathia had a good season, but the voters got it exactly right.