CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (08/15)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: The Adva... (08/10)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: The Next... (08/18)
Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (08/16)

August 15, 2011

Future Shock

Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/15/11

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

A special ten pack with the 10 most interesting negotiations as we head to the wire.

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates (First overall pick)
The first pick always has extra fascination to it, but this year it's for different reasons. The last two top picks, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, were historic talents, yet Cole has the same advisor—Scott Boras—and historically, we've rarely seen Boras engage his reverse gear. He could (and likely will) easily argue that Harper and Strasburg are not historic as much as they've simply established a new market for first overall picks, and the Pirates cannot afford the PR hit of an unsigned number one. Expect a huge deal.

Danny Hutlzen, LHP, Mariners (Second overall)
There is plenty of drama at two as well; Hultzen is looking for big cash, and while teams and players play a game of chicken on deadline day, so do players and players. Will Boras make a deal before seeing what he gets for Cole to make sure his other clients get the top bonuses? In the 2008 draft, Buster Posey eventually signed for more than Boras clients Eric Hosmer and Pedro Alvarez received. Don't think that doesn't matter; pride runs high with agents.

Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles (Fourth overall)
Bundy, the top high school player taken, threw out some borderline insane pre-draft numbers, with one rumored asking price as high as $30 million. If the industry believed that, he would not have been the fourth pick, but a record deal for a high school arm will likely be in order. Don't be surprised if Bundy also becomes the rare high school arm who earns a big-league deal.

Bubba Starling, OF, Royals (Fifth overall)
All spring, the story with Starling, the first position player taken in the draft, was his football ability and his chance to be the next quarterback at Nebraska. The industry interpreted that as signable yet expensive. Despite all sorts of rumors over the past two weeks, Starling is still expected to sign, but the number could end up higher than the initially anticipated $6-8 million. Look for something closer to $10 million, without quite getting to eight figures.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals (Sixth overall)
This is one of the uglier negotiations among unsigned single-digit picks because you have the Boras factor and a player who expected to be taken with one of the first two picks. Even at sixth overall, Rendon was the first college hitter to come off the board, and he expects to be paid like that. Rendon’s final bonus figure may play a strong role in Washington's other unsigned picks, which I'll get to in a moment.

Tyler Beede RHP, Blue Jays (21st overall)
Beede sent a pre-draft letter to teams telling them not to select him, yet Toronto did it anyway. I reported rumors of a pre-arranged deal and incurred the wrath of Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos. Last week, Beede insisted that he was going to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt, but the industry still doesn't buy it. I conducted an informal poll this morning among front-office people, and more than half of them believed we would end the day with all 33 first-round picks coming to terms. Of those that felt one player (nobody took more) would not sign, Beede's name did not come up once. I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong (that's a lie; I'll do it but be upset with myself), but until midnight hour and there's no one else around, I still think he signs, and I still think it's for around $3 million.

Tyler Guerreri, RHP, Rays (24th overall)
The player the front-office types predicted not to sign the most often? This guy. Some thought Guerreri was the top high school arm in the draft after Bundy on a stuff level, so now the Rays have a pick in the 20s who thought he could go as high as ninth to the Cubs, and expects to be paid as such. With the Rays’ unique situation this year, that money just might not be coming. “The Rays had so many picks this year,” explained one National League executive this morning, “that spreading out the money and getting one extra pick next year might not be the worst idea if his price ends up being too high.”

Josh Bell, OF, Pirates (61st overall)
Like Beede, Bell sent a letter to teams saying he had every intention of attending college (the University of Texas) in the fall, only it looks like he really meant it. Bell certainly has a price tag, but while he was seen as a top-15 talent, it will take an elite bonus to sign him, and in the end, the dollar sign and the muscle just won't add up. This was still a good pick for the Pirates, not only to reserve the right to make a run, but to have those rights around as an insurance policy if the Cole talks go south and the team needs to throw its money at someone at the end of the day.

Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays (74th overall)
While many Toronto fans seem focused on Beede, Norris is both less likely to sign and the better prospect; more than one team had him as the top high school left-hander on the board. Norris’ price tag is somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 million, and those numbers seemingly have not budged with less than 12 hours to go before the deadline. Toronto will sign one of their top picks, but many believe they won't sign both.

Matt Purke, LHP, Nationals (96th overall)
Purke entered the year as a potential first overall pick, but injuries, ineffectiveness, and no perceived drop in his price tag sent him to the third round. With so many contingencies, Purke is the hardest unsigned player to predict. How much money will the Nationals have left for him after signing Rendon and their other first-round selection, Alex Meyer (also a Boras client)? How much does Purke, a draft-eligible sophomore, really believe he can go back to school and pitch his way back to top-pick candidacy in 2012. If so, how much money convinces him it's not worth the risk? The Nationals have proven to be aggressive with their money in the draft even beyond Strasburg and Harper, but there is no real feel in the industry as to which direction this negotiation goes.  

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Dollar Sign On The Muscle

29 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

amazin_mess

Somewhat off-topic, but at what point do the Rays become unsustainable in Tampa? They can't sell tickets to save their lives and they're locked into a lease deal with a turf-covered toilet for a stadium. Do they continue to exist purely on revenue-sharing?

Aug 15, 2011 10:53 AM
rating: 0
 
Drew Miller

Hey, it works for the Marlins...and annoys everyone else.

Aug 15, 2011 11:50 AM
rating: 1
 
Aaron Moreno
(314)

If it's actually player vs. player, and Boras represents many of the top talents, isn't he in a conflict of interest?

Aug 15, 2011 10:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He doesn't rep Hultzen. That's the key to that one.

Aug 15, 2011 11:00 AM
 
mrdannyg

If the Jays sign Norris and Beede, you also have to factor in the extra expense of several giant status of AA that will need to be erected.

Aug 15, 2011 11:08 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Yeah, AA has had a great year, no doubt, but Toronto needs to calm down on the worship thing.

Aug 15, 2011 11:28 AM
 
Drew Miller

I'm too busy telling Canadians on the opposite coast to chill about the Stanley Cup...

Aug 15, 2011 11:51 AM
rating: 0
 
greenfrog

AA still has a lot to prove, but it's hard to deny that he's done a great job so far (Morrow, Escobar, Rasmus, Lawrie, extending Bautista for 5/$65M, re-signing EE for $2.5M, the Wells trade, the ROD (return on Doc), acquiring surplus draft picks, early draft returns, increased IFA bidding, revamping organizational philosophy generally towards more scouting + higher-ceiling acquisitions).

To do all this as a rookie GM in his early 30s is pretty impressive.

Aug 15, 2011 12:39 PM
rating: 5
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Yeah, just a thought, but can AA win something before we start engraving trophies and what not?

Aug 15, 2011 13:18 PM
 
greenfrog

I think part of the subtext is just how despairing Jays fans had become during the Ash and Ricciardi years. In just a couple of years since, AA has made a series of bold, transformative (and yes, ingenious) moves that the two previous GMs seemed utterly incapable of pulling off. So there's a lot of pent-up happiness being released by the fans around the internet and on call-in shows.

But yeah, the true test is still to come: taking an improved roster and farm system and producing a championship team.

Aug 15, 2011 13:45 PM
rating: 2
 
cooper7d7

Not defending Ricciardi, but I wonder if ownership gave AA more flexibility given the previous disappointments - leeway that JP did not enjoy?

Aug 15, 2011 13:57 PM
rating: 4
 
greenfrog

I think that's true.

Aug 15, 2011 14:41 PM
rating: 3
 
R.A.Wagman

Don't forget that Ricciardi was given the flexibility to sign Wells, Rios, B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett. I think the biggest difference popular-perception wise is that Ricciardi was a serious public whiner and AA has proudly proclaimed many times that he can compete with the monsters under the bed.

Aug 15, 2011 18:55 PM
rating: 2
 
tb3nn3tt

AA is the best GM to never finish higher than second to last in his own division. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.

Aug 15, 2011 15:46 PM
rating: 4
 
tb3nn3tt

Jon Daniels forever, btw.

Aug 15, 2011 15:47 PM
rating: -2
 
Scott44

KG - How would you like your crow served?

Aug 15, 2011 21:24 PM
rating: 0
 
dwinning

Whatever Kevin, the only thing separateing the Blue Jays from the Red Sox and Yankees are wins and losses at the major league level.

Aug 15, 2011 13:18 PM
rating: 17
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Well played.

Aug 15, 2011 14:45 PM
 
greenfrog

Plus $100M or so in annual player payroll. Silly little details. Really, it's all about team chemistry, not money.

Aug 15, 2011 15:31 PM
rating: 4
 
edulus

any opinions on the likelihood of delmonico signing?

Aug 15, 2011 11:49 AM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

AA is a very good GM, but have you ever heard him talk? He sounds like he's in the middle of puberty.

Aug 15, 2011 11:56 AM
rating: 0
 
Drew Miller

Better than Minaya, who actually *was* in puberty.

Aug 15, 2011 11:59 AM
rating: 5
 
amazin_mess

???

AA is definitely better than Minaya, but I'm not getting the reference there.

Aug 15, 2011 12:12 PM
rating: -2
 
Drew Miller

I'm just thinking of his general foolishness and overreactions in the media (e.g. Adam Rubin).

Aug 15, 2011 12:21 PM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

Oh yeah...yes, absolutely.

Aug 16, 2011 07:02 AM
rating: 0
 
SaberTJ

Kevin - any hangups with the Tribe signing Lindor?

Aug 15, 2011 18:12 PM
rating: 0
 
Sacramento

Pirates certainly made a splash...

Aug 15, 2011 23:49 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Great to see...good job Pirates.

Aug 16, 2011 07:02 AM
rating: 1
 
sldeck

Was Beede just being straightforward the whole time? Was AA simply figuring that he'd take next year's pick? Any behind-the-curtain insight?

Aug 16, 2011 07:35 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (08/15)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: The Adva... (08/10)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: The Next... (08/18)
Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (08/16)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May...
Premium Article Painting the Black: Stealing Signs
Fantasy Rounders: Statistical Crossroads
Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Started From the Bottom, ...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Eduardo Rodriguez
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Ask the Industry: Catc...

MORE FROM AUGUST 15, 2011
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: Fast Breakers
On the Beat: Padre Planning
Premium Article Collateral Damage: Beware of Batted Balls
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Managing a Need for...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 8/15/1...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Victor's Missing Power

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2011-08-17 - BP Podcast: Episode 62: You Guys Tricky
2011-08-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Delmon Dealt UPDATED
2011-08-16 - The BP Wayback Machine: Going Over Slot
2011-08-15 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/...
2011-08-15 - Future Shock Blog: Ten Pack Addendum: Who Mi...
2011-08-12 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2011-08-11 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
More...

MORE FUTURE SHOCK
2011-08-29 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/...
2011-08-25 - Premium Article Future Shock: Second-Half Surges
2011-08-18 - Premium Article Future Shock: The Next Freak?
2011-08-15 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/...
2011-08-10 - Premium Article Future Shock: The Advantage of Signing Early
2011-08-08 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/...
2011-08-03 - Premium Article Future Shock: Top 10 Traded Prospects
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2011-08-15 - Future Shock Blog: Ten Pack Addendum: Who Mi...