CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Ju... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis B... (06/30)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis B... (07/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, S... (07/05)

July 5, 2011

Transaction Analysis Blog

Marlins Acquire Cameron

by R.J. Anderson

FLORIDA MARLINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Florida Marlins
Acquired CF Mike Cameron and cash from the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash considerations. [7/5]

On Friday, John Perrotto wrote that Boston had little hope of moving Cameron in a trade—citing scouts who think the center fielder is toast—and it’s important to keep that in mind when dreaming up the identity of the player to be named later. In a way, this trade is similar in scope to the last two struck between the Red Sox and Marlins, and neither of those saw a player of value exchanged for the “name” portion of the deal:

Date

BOS received

FLA received

11/12/2010

Andrew Miller

Dustin Richardson

11/05/2009

Jeremy Hermida

Hunter Jones & Jose Alvarez

The Marlins have been on the lookout for a center field solution since trading their own Cameron during the winter. Chris Coghlan disappointed then suffered an injury, and the replacements Florida has thrown into center have not done much better—it is almost as if DeWayne Wise, Emilio Bonifacio, and Bryan Petersen are not major league-quality starters.  Cameron enters a low-expectations environment because the alternatives have been that poor, akin to Mark Ellis joining the Rockies last week.

As a whole, Marlins center fielders have batted .233/.295/.365, and while Cameron’s time in Boston was nobody’s idea of fun, he managed a line of .219/.285/.352 against superior pitching. Maybe Cameron has a dead-cat bounce in him, or one last hot streak, but if not, perhaps he could become a decent platoon partner with Wise. It is not ideal by any means, and Cameron has struggled in 70 plate appearances against lefties this season, but ask yourself this: who seems like a better bet to provide some offensive value: Cameron or Bonifacio?

The one big change in Cameron’s underlying statistics on a year-to-year basis is his declining power and increasing pop-up rate. In the three seasons prior to Cameron’s signing with Boston, he had 45 percent of his hits go for extra bases and hit 14 percent infield flies. With Boston, he had 36 percent of his hits go for extra bases and hit a pop fly in 17 percent—including a 22 percent mark this season. Those numbers are going in the wrong ways, and while it does not ensure that Cameron’s bat has slowed, it sure gives some water to theory that he has to cheat on pitches in order to hit them authoritatively.

There is a legitimate chance Cameron is done as a productive major leaguer, and because of possibility, there is a legitimate chance Cameron is in his final days as a major leaguer. Say what you will about Florida’s budgetary restrictions or business practices, but they tend to work quickly in cutting bait. Jose Lopez, signed earlier in the season to a minor league deal, received 31 plate appearances before hitting the road (albeit a poor 31 plate appearances, as he reached base five times); Richardson, acquired in the Miller deal, lasted 32 innings in Triple-A; Jones got around 46 innings; and so on. Florida might not be spending a lot of money, but that doesn’t preclude them from understanding sunk costs.

If Cameron looks done to them, then he might not make it until August, and that would be a rather sad ending for arguably one of the game’s greatest defensive center fielders of all-time.


R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Ju... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis B... (06/30)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis B... (07/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, S... (07/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The View from the Loge Level: The Alex Jacks...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Power Outage
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 19, 2014
Premium Article Raising Aces: Carlos in Charge
Notes About Baseball: The Second-Hardest Par...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Cueto's Quirks
Premium Article Moonshot: Detecting the Best Medicine

MORE FROM JULY 5, 2011
Premium Article The BP Broadside: Leave My Mind Alone!
Divide and Conquer, NL West: One Man's Sludg...
Changing Speeds: Setting the Line--Mid-seaso...
Premium Article Painting the Black: Six-Man Mania
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 7/5/11
The Week in Quotes: June 27-July 3

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2011-07-07 - Transaction Analysis Blog: M's Promote Seage...
2011-07-06 - Transaction Analysis Blog: The Cubs Find Ano...
2011-07-05 - Premium Article Painting the Black: Six-Man Mania
2011-07-05 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Marlins Acquire C...
2011-06-30 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Mark Ellis Traded...
2011-06-29 - Painting the Black: Profiling the Nats' New ...
2011-06-29 - Transaction Analysis Blog: The Return of Bra...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS BLOG
2011-07-13 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Brewers Acquire K...
2011-07-07 - Transaction Analysis Blog: M's Promote Seage...
2011-07-06 - Transaction Analysis Blog: The Cubs Find Ano...
2011-07-05 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Marlins Acquire C...
2011-06-30 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Mark Ellis Traded...
2011-06-29 - Transaction Analysis Blog: The Return of Bra...
2011-06-29 - Transaction Analysis Blog: Release Your Vete...
More...