CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: No ... (01/26)
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis: ... (01/25)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (01/27)
Next Article >>
Checking the Numbers: ... (01/26)

January 26, 2011

Transaction Analysis

Napoli, oh Napoli

by Christina Kahrl

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

MINNESOTA TWINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Agreed to terms with RHP Kevin Slowey on a one-year, $2.7 million contract, avoiding arbitration. [1/25]
Claim LHP Dusty Hughes off waivers from the Royals; designated RHP Rob Delaney for assignment. [1/26]

NEW YORK YANKEES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Signed OF-R Andruw Jones to a one-year, $2 million contract. [1/20]

Swapping Jones into the Marcus Thames role makes for a modest enough upgrade, although he isn't a good outfielder, considering his -2.9 RAA mark via Colin Wyers' nFRAA, with similarly uncharitable evaluations via Total Zone. The real benefits are almost identical to Thames, albeit with more walks and fewer strikeouts. Even if he's leaving the Cell's righty-coddling corners, NuYankee is almost as generous to right-handed power, so even with with the change in venue, he ought to mash. Jones is still death on lefties (producing a .302 ISO against them last season), he's playable against right-handers, and he isn't visibly awful-looking afield. Slotting him in as the righty power source who can spot for Jorge Posada at DH, or Brett Gardner or Nick Swisher in the outfield corners--or by extension, Mark Teixeira, with Swisher or Posada moving to first base. In general, it's a better use of a roster spot than Thames.

Beyond those pragmatic considerations, it's amusing to note that while Jones has been around forever, he's only seven months older than Thames, so it isn't as if the already gray Yankees got all that much longer in the tooth. Less happily, while #25 is not one of the Bombers' innumerable retired numbers, it's already on Mark Teixeira's back, so Jones will have to wear something else for the first time in his career. That, or pony up some Dodger dollars to buy it away from Tex, and with $3.2 million of those coming in every year through 2014, maybe he'll splurge. Given the breadth of the McCourts' expenses, it won't be the silliest thing they wind up paying for.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Traded RHP Clay Mortensen to the Rockies for RHP Ethan Hollingsworth; signed 3B-R Andy LaRoche to a minor-league contract with a non-roster invite to spring training. [1/24]
Avoided arbitration with LHP Craig Breslow by agreeing on a one-year, $1.4 million deal. [1/25]

Roster pressures force ticky-tack trades like this often enough, but Hollingsworth is a third-year pro, so as a matter of getting a swapped-in body for Mortensen as the price of losing the latter because of a full-to-the-brim 40-man, it's a benefit that will last the A's a single season of Hollingsworth before he has to be added or exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Happily, while he wasn't close to the top of the Rockies' pitching-thick prospect pool, he's a useful enough arm. A fourth-rounder in 2008 out of Western Michigan, he's heading into his age-24 season and will have to pitch or die at Double-A. Like Mortensen, he has good breaking stuff, and like Mortensen, he's not an especially hard-throwing right-hander. Repeating High-A, he generated a nice-looking 153/34 K/UBB ratio in 160 1/3 IP, but counting unearned runs, he was surrendering 5.2 R/9 in the hitter-friendly Cal League. He may only wind up as an organizational innings-eater, but something's better than nothing.

Less happily, if you're keeping score on how that Matt Holliday trade is turning out for Oakland, it's well on its way toward turning out to be almost as spectacularly unproductive as the Rich Harden deal in terms of talent received. Mortensen's been ditched. The major component of the deal, Brett Wallace, was converted into Michael Taylor, which looked brilliant at the time, but that was before Taylor tanked badly in Sacramento.*

The other pieces received from the Rockies? There's lefty-batting outfielder Shane Peterson, who hit .265/.354/.367 in Midland while playing a whole lot of first base instead of the outfield corners. While he was just 22 years old, what's the plan here, to populate the system with the Ryan Sweeney experience so that even fans of the affiliates lose sight of what a power-position bopper is supposed to look like?

*: Given the A's recent fortunes with outfielder prospects, bet on disappointment and frustrating leading to Taylor getting dealt after 2011 and becoming an All-Star--the trick is figuring out, with which team? How about a buck bet on the Orioles? It's as if there's an inverse relationship between how long an outfield prospect acquired by the A's is with them, and how well he turns out. How about we name that the Sweeney Rule?

TEXAS RANGERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Traded RHP Frank Francisco and cash to the Blue Jays for C/1B-R Mike Napoli. [1/25]

Credit Jon Daniels for making an impact move after the point when you might have thought he was done for the winter. There isn't a lot to add to what I had to say on Monday about Napoli's virtues, but putting him in the reliably hitter-friendly Ballpark just reconfirms he should be fine in terms of being able to continue cranking for power. Dealing from depth in terms of swapping out the most fragile of good late-game arms to get two years of a good-hitting catcher is handy enough.

What I wouldn't do is say Napoli is the outright everyday catcher. Looking at the Rangers' roster, they may choose to spot Napoli at first base and DH, just as the Angels had. Considering that Napoli has only nabbed 19.5 of stolen-base attempts during the course of his career--that's his caught-stealing percentage, without crediting him for baserunners picked off by his pitchers--that's just as well. If Michael Young ends up getting spotted in a Mark DeRosa-like superutility role when he isn't DHing, there should be a few DH at-bats to go around. There's also the value of employing Napoli at first base for Mitch Moreland on his days off. In the big picture, this should mean the Rangers have 11 regulars in the lineup, with Napoli and Torrealba splitting time behind the plate, and David Murphy sponging up the spot starts in the outfield and also getting a few DH at-bats.

As a result, you can see where the new fuel for trading Young comes from, but I'm a little skeptical. There's the challenge of finding a partner--not the Angels, obviously, although it might be cute if Tony Reagins managed a delayed three-party transaction to get him to avenge himself on Napoli's speedy return to the AL West. And it has to be someone with money and a willingness to spend it on Young, given the $48 million he's due the next three years; barring that, it depends on Daniels' ability to get a chunk of the deal eaten. All doable propositions, but not exactly easy.

My thought is that the Rangers aren't that well set, that trading Young for its own sake makes that much sense. The move would also expose them to a bad break or two in the infield, and since Ian Kinsler has made at least one trip to the DL in each of his five seasons in The Show, that risk isn't easily ignored. For a slick-fielding defensive stud at the keystone, Andres Blanco makes a great bench player, and no more than that. Having Young as a starting option if Adrian Beltre or Elvis Andrus land on the DL beyond their inevitable rest days, and as their second baseman when (not if) Kinsler gets shelved next makes for a lineup better set up to survive the inevitable wear and tear any roster endures. At the least, trading Young would best be followed by a decision to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, because let's face it, Murphy isn't that good, he's just worth keeping in the mix.

What adding Napoli probably does is scupper the bids of one or two of the kids to crack the roster. Blanco seems a likely winner for one bench job as a defensive replacement--for Kinsler or for Young--and if Napoli is in the mix for at-bats at DH and first base beyond splitting starting chores behind the plate, there's an argument for carrying Matt Treanor as the third catcher. Murphy is the only outfield reserve on paper, but this should mean that Young will see time in the corners.

All in all, keeping 11 batters in fairly steady playing time isn't that much of a logistical feat, so carrying a pair of experienced pine-time players like Blanco and Treanor at up-the-middle positions to round out the roster strikes me as a well-balanced group of 13. Of course, that leaves Taylor Teagarden--to anticipate the question, he has one option left--plus Chris Davis and Craig Gentry all stranded in Round Rock. That's probably what's best for each of them, especially if Davis is going to reclaim his top prospect status.

As for the bullpen without Francisco, that makes for a more complicated picture. Neftali Feliz still has his pair of veteran lefties in Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes to set him up, plus ROOGY Darren O'Day. From there, things get interesting, with two well-stocked groups of talent to choose from. First, there's the small horde of arms squeezed from the rotation to choose from: Matt Harrison, Scott Feldman, Michael Kirkman, Omar Beltre, and potentially Alexi Ogando. But there's also a few reliever-only options to choose from, from Japanese import Yoshi Tateyama to hard-throwing Pedro Strop and their fascination with Mariners castoff Mark Lowe. In that crowd, non-roster invites like Yhency Brazoban and Seth McClung won't have it easy. As good as Francisco has been, he's also been hard to count on health-wise, and it isn't like they don't have alternatives.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Traded C/1B-R Mike Napoli to the Rangers for RHP Frank Francisco and cash; designated LHP Rommie Lewis for assignment. [1/25]

Just like that, the threat to J.P. Arencibia's bid for regular playing time goes away, which is fine, in that the Blue Jays did something else to address that bullpen issue I touched on last week. And while this might seem a speedy flip, adding Francisco to a bullpen that already added Octavio Dotel's situational value and Jon Rauch's brand of utility makes for a thoroughly well-stocked pen.

Francisco deserves to be remembered as the critical missing man from the Rangers' relief corps last October, when back issues shut him down before he could take his place on the national stage as the team's key set-up man, handing off leads to Neftali Feliz. If Francisco gets his shot at closing with the Jays, it's an opportunity he deserves, albeit similarly ill-fated. No matter how many saves he might rack up as the Jays' latest temp at closer, if he heads for free agency after 2011, it will be just in time to join that already overstocked market of closers, or what we might call the stopperocalypse.

If there's a downside to the move, it's that Francisco is only under club control for one more season, where Napoli will be for two, a disappointing fact, but for the bean-counter's observation that it'll mean saving even more money, and Francisco will cost less than Napoli in 2011 besides. Since the Jays did end up having to kick in $5 million to the Angels to make Vernon Wells extra-palatable, there's nothing wrong with being a little cost-conscious while simultaneously completing the bullpen overhaul and making space for their top position-playing prospect.

Which is why adding Francisco might be a great opportunity for both parties to strike a multi-year agreement now, providing him with security that has nothing to do with whether he winds up closing, and without any concern over getting stiffed in next winter's market. Counting against that would be Francisco's spotty health record, as he's had to be shelved on the DL in both 2009 (for 53 total days on three different DL stints) and 2010 (for the last 65 days). Which might make him a more agreeable mark for something in a multi-year flavor, albeit an obviously risky investment.

In terms of performance alone, though, he has been worth it of late. Last year, his 27 percent strikeout rate was just short of the top 20 among MLB relievers with 40 or more innings pitched, and he just missed in 2009 as well. With consistent low-90s heat and a changeup he uses effectively as a chase pitch, he's not just pumping gas. If there's a problem, it's the number of fastballs he leaves up in the zone, but it isn't like pitching in Texas has helped him any. The Rogers Centre won't either, but the other way to look at this is that Francisco is familiar with tough environments and has proven capable of surviving them.

An easy suggestion would be that he might profit from a change of scenery, but I'd mute those somewhat. Setting aside whatever the division of responsibilities between new skipper John Farrell and pitching coach Bruce Walton might be, the Rangers' Mike Maddux has a well-earned rep for being among the game's best coaches around. Maybe Farrell and/or Walton see something that might help with the homer problem, and maybe it's just a function of tough parks and inevitable risk.

Beyond the obvious ripple effect in terms of how this returns the Jays to the status quo ante behind the plate, the other roster effect is that this will create a particular roster crunch in the pen. Just counting the bodies, beyond Rauch, Dotel, Francisco, and Frasor, there's Carlos Villanueva, Shawn Camp, Josh Roenicke, and Casey Janssen from the right side, plus David Purcey, Jesse Carlson, and Brad Mills to choose from for southpaw support. Cramming a dozen reasonable candidates for work into seven jobs should make for an interesting camp. In terms of one possible upshot, if you thought you were done with Frasor-related trade rumors, you can bet they'll start smoldering again by mid-March if everyone's still healthy, especially since Frasor is also condemned to free agency next winter.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Agreed to terms with RHP Jason Hammel on a two-year contract, avoiding arbitration. [1/22]
Acquired RHP Clay Mortensen from the Athletics for RHP Ethan Hollingsworth; designated RHP Sam Deduno for assignment. [1/24]

Credit O'Dowd with a worthwhile depth-minded snag, because while Mortensen isn't going to set the world--or even Colorado Springs--afire, he's immediately a worthwhile addition to a rotation picture that has to count on a healthy Aaron Cook to get to a full five. Beyond Cook, Felipe Paulino may or may not be bullpen-bound, and Esmil Rogers took repeated beatings in his rotation spins. That they've bumped the slow-developing Deduno also isn't a major surprise, given how much time he lost last season to elbow issues of his own. Down the chain, Greg Reynolds lost time to elbow woes as well, and especially in the first half they may not want to rush up Cory Riordan, Bruce Billings, or Christian Friedrich Barbarossa (or Barbarosa, if you're so inclined).

That's the near-term picture, though, because there's still plenty of speculation that Mortensen could be useful in a middle-relief role because of a tasty sinker/slider mix. Sticking with the complimentary side of things: Mortensen's rate of ground-ball outs to caught flies in Sacramento was an impressive 1.9, so for a back-end rotation candidate for the Rockies, he'll fit into the club's recent mania for pitchers who keep the infielders busy. He induced 20 double plays, and he keeps the deuce in order, having only let seven of 14 stolen-base attempts succeed. The slider's especially sharp, and helped him keep left-handed batters in check in Triple-A, limiting them to .225/.292/.369.

The not-so-exciting? Unless Mortensen does pick up a few ticks on his fastball with a move to the pen, his velocity is very pedestrian, there are complaints about inconsistency with his delivery and his changeup, and he tends to run out of gas after the fourth inning, giving up 45 runs in 61 1/3 IP while seeing his strikeout rate drop from 7.0 K/9 to 4.5 K/9. Which is why you can still foresee an eventual move to the pen, with the question being whether the Rox like what they see in camp so much they do so sooner, to give them a multi-inning long reliever.


Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Christina's other articles. You can contact Christina by clicking here

18 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Chomsky
(103)

The Rangers also have Tanner Scheppers as a potential bullpen piece.

Jan 26, 2011 14:00 PM
rating: 0
 
ClubberLang

UZR had Andruw as solidly average in the corners. You just don't want him in center anymore. If he stays motivated and doesn't eat himself into oblivion in the next month or so, he should be quite useful for the Yankees. He was quite the useful 4th outfielder/DH for the Sox last year, especially for the price, and I would have liked to see him back except they've sorta boxed themselves in with guys they already had to pay like Teahen, who seems likely to be the one they send out there as the 4th outfielder and occasional infield butcher.

Jan 26, 2011 14:46 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

I'll always recommend the consultation of multiple defensive metrics, because whichever one you're using, keep in mind that they're all more well-constructed interpretive suggestions than concrete facts.

If it's helpful, you might want to review the last half of my write-up on shortstops from last month (with the valuable additional comments), as well as one FOT's observation about defensive metrics in general, and UZR in particular.

Jan 26, 2011 15:24 PM
 
qwik3457bb

Well, then, put BIS' +/- in Jones' corner as well, at least in the corners. +2 runs in 101 innings in left; +5 runs in 397 innings in right. -3 runs in 125 innings in center, though.

RZR says more or less the same thing: .895 RZR in left (ML Avg was about .870) and a rate of about 54 plays OOZ per season (ML avg was about 66 or so). .907 RZR in right (ML avg was about .900) with a rate of about 69 plays out of zone (ML avg was about 75).

In both left and right his arm was rated as a plus by both UZR and +/-, so the original poster has some support for his position here.

Jan 30, 2011 00:54 AM
rating: 0
 
Llarry

I'm getting to like AA, and I'm not even a Jays' fan. I don't think there's any question this deal was cooking before the Angels deal was finished. While there were not unreasonable arguments made for what Napoli could do for the Jays, I wasn't really convinced. I'm picturing Alex telling Jon Daniels that he could hang Wells around the Angels' neck like a millstone, and deliver them Napoli's bat, and what's that worth to you?

Jan 26, 2011 16:16 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

That's the cool thing about this; in the same way that I found myself admiring Paul De Podesta's too-brief bit of work with the Dodgers as a matter of pursuing objectives, yet I was never in any danger of becoming a Dodgers fan, the Blue Jays are becoming an outfit where you can like what they do and why. It may not win the Win Series the year after next or ever, but competence is admirable.

Jan 26, 2011 22:03 PM
 
Nick Wernham

I'll cheer them on win or lose, but I hope that they can make a playoff run some time in the near future. I also hope that the ownership and fanbase are patient with AA regardless of the results, provided the process is sensible at the time the transactions are made.

It makes me upset when people judge transactions in hindsight when a negative or positive result is so horribly out of whack with what one could have expected when the move was made. It's far more useful when evaluating a front office's moves to put yourself in their position at the time each move was made and try and determine whether it seems like a sensible course of action in light of what they could have known at that time.

If a front office makes a sensible move and it doesn't turn out well then they don't deserve to be chided for it. Frankly they deserve a certain amount of sympathy. If a front office makes a senseless move and it works out well then they don't deserve credit.

Jan 26, 2011 22:26 PM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

FWIW, the Toronto fan media base has been very supportive of this move, in print, on radio and through blogs. Most fans I know love the move, too. More for the possibilities it opens up - creating a real sense of hope that hasn't been here for a while.
Looking at AA's body of work, it seems that he is creating a system that is a slimmed down version of the Royals' without the endless years of abject losing to get there. And that is awesome.

Jan 27, 2011 04:13 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

And that's a major part of building an enduring fan base--to create a sense of hope and a reasonable expectation of progress.

Jan 27, 2011 04:50 AM
 
nicholj

One of AA's checks under the pro column has to be that FF is likely to be a compensatory FA after 2011 and a good candidate for an arbitration offer. Either you get the picks or a talented arm on a risk-free one year deal. Whereas, given his limitations and that he is no longer low-priced, Napoli is a good non-tender candidate.

Would be especially tasty, if he converts Frasor and the $2M of savings into a decent 3B.

Jan 27, 2011 06:02 AM
rating: 0
 
JimmyJack

Stopperocalypse? That's awesome!

Jan 26, 2011 16:37 PM
rating: 2
 
Nick Wernham

I know! I l was drinking some milk at the time I read this and some squirted out of my nose, I gagged and then I still laughed at an embarassingly loud volume after that. My brother came into the room with a real "WTF?" expression on his face and looked at my screen. "Oh, baseball stuff."

Jan 26, 2011 21:37 PM
rating: 1
 
Darsox64

When you said that Michael Young will "see time in the corners," do you mean that he will be playing LF and RF? Is that more likely than him playing 1B and Mitch Moreland playing the outfield?

Jan 26, 2011 22:32 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

Just a feeling, but I expect it's more likely that Young does the roving, and Moreland gets his reps at first base to master the art of it. Ron Washington's a skipper first, but he's a reliably conscientious infield coach from way back, and seeing what he does with Moreland might put the Scott Hatteberg legendry to shame.

Jan 27, 2011 04:52 AM
 
beerchaser42

"Given the breadth of the McCourt's expenses, it won't be the silliest thing they wind up paying for."

Is it possible to cringe and laugh at the same time? Guess so, because as a Dodger fan I just did. The sad part is that your quote is actually a gross understatement.

Jan 27, 2011 06:38 AM
rating: 0
 
jhardman

Ranger fan here - and I want to chime in on RA Wegman's comments about the Jay fan base. As a Ranger fan from their beginnings in Arlington, I'm starting to think about what the statue to Daniels will look like, and he hasn't won anything yet. It's all about the hope he brings, and combined with all the pieces falling into place last year, we saw magic in the stands and the Cowboys knocked off the front sports page for the first time ever. AA has that same dynamic going, and he didn't give away Adrian Gonzalez and John Danks. Better times are coming to Toronto. Does the guy have a fin growing out of his back?

To Christina - I think you are spot on with Young's role. If he does well at it and plays six positions while Wash molds Moreland into a fine first baseman, the Rangers won't have the crappy bench they had through the playoff run last year.

Jan 27, 2011 07:03 AM
rating: 0
 
hhbliss

Excellent analysis, but how can you write about what Frank Francisco "deserves to be remembered as" without mentioning a certain chair-throwing incident?

Jan 27, 2011 07:26 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

It was an awful thing, to be sure, but I don't know if any of us should be reduced to our worst single act.

Jan 27, 2011 12:23 PM
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: No ... (01/26)
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis: ... (01/25)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (01/27)
Next Article >>
Checking the Numbers: ... (01/26)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Painting the Black: Pedro Alvarez's Trip Fro...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Apri...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: April 17, 2015
Going Yard: How Bryant Can Crush
The Call-Up: Kris Bryant
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Trade Your Draft...
BP Boston

MORE FROM JANUARY 26, 2011
The Payoff Pitch: Will the A's Ever Move to ...
Checking the Numbers: Withholding Aplenty
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: No One Man Should have Al...

MORE BY CHRISTINA KAHRL
2011-02-02 - Purpose Pitches: The Problems Mark Cuban Won...
2011-01-31 - Premium Article Purpose Pitches: Anaheim's Winter of Discont...
2011-01-27 - Transaction Analysis: I Want Wandy
2011-01-26 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Napoli, oh Napoli
2011-01-25 - Transaction Analysis: The Punished
2011-01-24 - Transaction of the Day: The Vernon Wells Tra...
2011-01-21 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Junior Circuit Jumble
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2011-02-11 - Transaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup, Februa...
2011-02-04 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup, Januar...
2011-01-27 - Transaction Analysis: I Want Wandy
2011-01-26 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Napoli, oh Napoli
2011-01-25 - Transaction Analysis: The Punished
2011-01-21 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Junior Circuit Jumble
2011-01-19 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Arbitration Avoidance
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2011-02-09 - Painting the Black: Choosing a Blue Jays Clo...