CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Perspective... (08/11)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (08/10)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (08/12)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Under The Knife: Put M... (08/11)

August 11, 2010

Fantasy Beat

Hot Spots: Outfield

by Rob McQuown

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Value Picks 2010 PECOTA Games '10 Scoresheet
Outfield Team PA HR R RBI SB BA OBP SLG BA OBP SLG LF CF RF vRH vLH Rng
Rick Ankiel ATL 139 4 17 18 1 .230 .295 .397 .266 .324 .492 0 35 0 +30 –90 2.12
Peter Bourjos LAA 31 0 4 2 2 .185 .267 .259 .256 .307 .401 0 8 0 –16 +40 2.10
Lorenzo Cain MIL 22 0 5 3 1 .474 .500 .632 .227 .288 .350 0 5 1 –16 +40 2.10
Tyler Colvin CHN 299 17 45 40 4 .252 .313 .515 .246 .297 .412 44 14 46 +20 –71 2.12
Coco Crisp OAK 178 4 29 22 15 .270 .337 .447 .274 .352 .415 0 40 0 –4 +10 2.17
Shelley Duncan CLE 151 6 14 22 0 .263 .351 .459 .247 .332 .467 25 0 8 –18 +39 2.07
Jon Jay STL 138 3 22 13 1 .366 .415 .553 .267 .319 .386 5 11 25 +24 –71 2.10
Logan Morrison FLA 54 0 1 6 0 .245 .315 .327 .271 .355 .447 12 0 0 +24 –71 TBD
Felix Pie BAL 137 4 18 13 2 .289 .319 .469 .284 .345 .471 32 1 0 +24 –79 2.15
Jose Tabata PIT 232 2 32 16 12 .310 .361 .404 .280 .335 .420 45 11 0 –16 +40 2.10
Subscribe to Heater: Avg for Left Field .274 .342 .440   vRH = OPS v RH
Heater Magazine Avg for Center Field .269 .338 .424   vLH = OPS v LH
  Avg for Right Field .275 .348 .449   Rng = Range
  Avg for All Outfield .273 .343 .438  

 

Pomp and Circumstance: The list was overloaded last week, with the expectation that several names would be removed this time around. With that in mind, two of these outfielders have enough credits for graduation: Jose Tabata and Tyler Colvin. Tabata is hitting .310 with 12 SB, and people are slowly realizing that he can help a fantasy team. Tyler Colvin had a terrible week, yet his continued power assault makes him quite valuable. He may knock an odd home run against Manny Parra here and there, but fantasy owners will be happier if they just bench him against lefty pitching in daily-move leagues.

Bonus coverage: Recent alumnus Drew Stubbs may be losing playing time, but he has hit the Cubs well this year, going .311/.326/.733 with five (5) home runs and three (3) stolen bases in the ten games he's started. For owners who like to make a lot of moves, it's something to consider August 27-29, when the Reds face the Cubs again

Taking a Wak: Logan Morrison is being removed. He's a good baseball player (or will be in a couple years), but – as noted – his strengths at this point are walking and hitting doubles, and most fantasy formats don't reward such things. As many have commented about the Don Wakamatsu firing, “It's not his fault.” But he has to go.

Wally Pipp and Carlos Gomez: Lorenzo Cain reasserted his prospect value in 2010 after a 2009 season lost to injuries and resultant bad play (.218/.294/.330 combined). While it's never safe to throw out data entirely, his 2008 and 2010 paint the picture of an exciting leadoff prospect with some moderate power potential, to boot. In 2008, he hit .279/.356/.448 and successfully made the jump to AA before getting a taste of AAA at the end of the year. He struck out in 21% of his plate appearances (115 of 550), and swiped 25 bases. Fast forward to 2010, with his sprained knee from April of 2009 a year in the past, and Cain has shown an ability to further leverage his great “tools” into baseball skills. He's lowered his strikeout rate to 18%, and went 26-3 in stolen base attempts before his recall. While his Davenport Translation (DT) from Huntsville is a modest .217/.272/.304, and his PECOTA is uninspiring, that doesn't tell the whole story. His untranslated AA stat line was .317/.402/.432, and his 100 plate appearances in AAA resulted in a DT of .270/.343/.404.

Cain Disclaimers: With any new player, there's always more risk involved, since even though these guys are professionals, there's an adaptation period (see: Brantley, Michael – who has hit .313/.389/.625 over the past week, clearly displeased with his removal from the Value Picks list). Some players shrug it off, some are motivated to spurts of over-performance, but some struggle – the net result is that there is more variance to be expected. It should also be noted that new 4th outfielder Chris Dickerson's Weighted-means PECOTA is even better than Cain's AAA DT, at .264/.354/.426. While Corey Hart is having back issues, Dickerson would be an excellent fantasy fill-in, and should continue to see a reasonable amount of playing time even when Hart returns, as a lefty batter backing up three right-handed outfielders. Cain – a great athlete who is considered a very good defender - was moved to right field when both he and Dickerson were in the lineup, indicating how much Ken Macha respects Dickerson's defense. It can't go without noting that Macha also shows a disdain for attempting steals, and that will serve to reduce the fantasy value of both new Brewers centerfielders.

Peter and the Jay: It's almost de rigueur for rookies added to the Value Picks list of outfielders to start off with struggles, and Peter Bourjos has been struggling. Successfully getting a squeeze bunt down yesterday will win points with his manager, and he stole two bases last week, giving him some fantasy relevance. Statistically, his 31 plate appearances are insignificant, so it's recommended to keep the faith as long as Mike Scioscia does, for fantasy teams in need of speed. On the other side, Jon Jay mocks the suggestion that he's not really a .350 hitter by hitting .412 for the week.

Coco and Pie: Coco Crisp may be one of the easiest players to project for a season, but he has some maddening streaks. This week, it was hot, as he hit .476/.500/.714, with 5 runs, 4 RBI, a home run and a stolen base. Pie started all seven games and hit .345/.345/.655, with two homers and a steal. That's the way to impress the new boss!

Writing on the Wall: Speaking of impressing the boss, Rick Ankiel has not done anything to impress his new manager, but Bobby Cox is well-known for being very patient, so don't expect Ankiel to lose playing time yet. Shelley Duncan didn't have a good week, and with the Indians trying to figure out who will be able to start for them in 2011, expect the younger players to gobble up at bats if he doesn't start hitting home runs again soon.

Rob McQuown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Rob's other articles. You can contact Rob by clicking here

7 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Perspective... (08/11)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spot... (08/10)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (08/12)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Under The Knife: Put M... (08/11)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 29, 2014
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: This Article Mentions Fehlan...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, August 29
Premium Article The Call-Up: Dilson Herrera
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Augu...
Prospectus Feature: Roast A Parks
Premium Article Raising Aces: Mis-Priced

MORE FROM AUGUST 11, 2010
Premium Article On the Beat: Recapturing The Magic
Manufactured Runs: Talkin' 'bout the Situati...
Premium Article Under The Knife: Put Me In, Coach
Premium Article Future Shock: Org Watch: Cubs, Indians, Blue...
Premium Article Prospectus Perspective: Resetting Their Cour...

MORE BY ROB MCQUOWN
2010-09-01 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-25 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner Bonus
2010-08-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-01 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner Bonus
More...

MORE FANTASY BEAT
2010-08-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief Pitchers
2010-08-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Discipline And Mr. Jones
2010-08-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #20
2010-08-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-08-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Catcher, Second Bas...
2010-08-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: First Base, Third B...
2010-08-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: The Dominance of Brandon Morro...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2010-12-22 - Fantasy Article Analyze This: Hot Spots: Outfield
2010-09-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Outfield