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04-24

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Chase Anderson
by
Eric Roseberry

04-17

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0

The Buyer's Guide: Jason Vargas
by
Eric Roseberry

04-14

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2

Prospectus Feature: Graveman Comes to Grip With His Destiny
by
David Brown

04-13

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0

Feature Article
by
David Brown

04-12

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0

Daily League Strategy: Week 2: Picking Pitchers
by
Tim Finnegan

07-23

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1

Transaction Analysis: Once and Future Braves
by
R.J. Anderson

06-12

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty League Risers: Pitchers
by
J.J. Jansons

12-04

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3

Retrospective Player Valuation: Mixed-League Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

11-20

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0

Retrospective Player Valuation: National League Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

11-13

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8

Retrospective Player Valuation: American League Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

10-02

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Are Elite Pitchers Becoming More Numerous?
by
J.P. Breen

07-01

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4

Baseball Therapy: Do Some Pitches Do More Damage Than Others?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-01

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1

Moonshot: Survival of the Fittest: Pitchers
by
Robert Arthur

05-30

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3

Working the Count: The Five-Day Pitcher Injury Zone
by
Noah Woodward

05-28

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13

The Lineup Card: 13 Pitcher Injuries We Wish We Could Undo
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-22

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 455: Stan Conte on What We Need to Know About Pitcher Injuries
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-15

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3

Overthinking It: Have Tommy John Surgery, Sign Long-Term Contract?
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-18

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6

Five to Watch: National League Prospects
by
Bret Sayre

08-06

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13

Baseball Therapy: Prioritizing the Pitcher's Health
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-09

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 199: Pitchers Putting on Sunscreen/The Astros and Clubhouse Chemistry
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

03-21

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5

BP Unfiltered: Tommy Hanson, Shaun Marcum, and Causes for Concern
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-01

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3

Pitcher Profile: New Arms of the Week, First Edition
by
Harry Pavlidis

02-18

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23

Baseball Therapy: What Really Predicts Pitcher Injuries?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-28

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25

Baseball Therapy: Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-23

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 124: A World Without Easily Injured Pitchers/Hitter BABIP, and Whether Mike Trout Was Lucky/What We Think About Booing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

01-18

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3

A Little Relief
by
Jonah Birenbaum

01-02

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 110: Players with Criminal Pasts/How Much Do Pitcher Hitting, Fielding, and Baserunning Matter?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-05

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5

Raising Aces: For Those About to Watch (We Salute You)
by
Doug Thorburn

09-27

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 51: What the Rockies Knew About Ubaldo/The Eternal Torii Hunter/Declining Dan Haren
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-11

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13

Pebble Hunting: How Pitchers React to Home Runs
by
Sam Miller

06-29

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3

The Stats Go Marching In: Should Pitchers Change Their Between-Innings Routine?
by
Max Marchi

06-29

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9

Prospectus Q&A: Pitcher Workloads and Innings Limits: Two Industry Perspectives
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-04

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11

Future Shock Blog: Draft Day Dream Crushing
by
Kevin Goldstein

05-31

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7

On the Beat: Fireballer in the Hole
by
John Perrotto

04-23

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bartolo Colon and the Comeback Kids
by
Jay Jaffe

03-12

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12

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Rotation Rumble
by
Jay Jaffe

03-07

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43

Prospectus Hit and Run: Inspecting the Spectrum, Part IV: The Designated Hitter Question
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Pitching to the Score
by
Greg Spira

11-22

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30

Spinning Yarn: How Does Quality of Contact Relate to BABIP?
by
Mike Fast

11-16

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41

Spinning Yarn: Who Controls How Hard the Ball is Hit?
by
Mike Fast

10-31

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Weighty Matter
by
Jay Jaffe

05-24

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5

Baseball ProGUESTus: Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1
by
Tom Tango

03-17

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15

The BP Wayback Machine: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?
by
Voros McCracken

02-25

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Are You Experienced?
by
Jay Jaffe

02-16

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59

Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone
by
Mike Fast

01-27

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21

Ahead in the Count: Testing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz

01-17

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0

Ahead in the Count: Situational Pitching
by
Matt Swartz

12-15

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27

Ahead in the Count: Ground-ballers: Better than You Think
by
Matt Swartz

11-11

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7

Spinning Yarn: Pitcher Release Points
by
Mike Fast

10-26

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8

Spinning Yarn: Interpreting Pitch Classifications
by
Mike Fast

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April 24, 2017 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Chase Anderson

2

Eric Roseberry

He has posted a 1.13 ERA in four starts for the Brewers. Will this success sustain?

The Buyer’s Guide is a weekly column designed to help fantasy owners assess a player who sees an increased level of interest on a given week. This column focuses on players who generally have lower than 40 percent ownership rates across various leagues.

Since making his major-league debut in 2014, Chase Anderson has been a slightly below-average starting pitcher. So why is he the subject of this week’s “Buyer’s Guide?” Because Anderson is off to a surprisingly good start, and fantasy owners are beginning to take notice. Anderson saw the 10th-highest jump in ownership rate in ESPN leagues this week (from 5.6 percent to 35.3 percent). The increase was even greater in CBS leagues, which saw him go from 24 percent owned to 51 percent. In Yahoo’s latest “Transaction Trends,” Anderson was the ninth-most added pitcher to rosters.

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April 17, 2017 7:50 am

The Buyer's Guide: Jason Vargas

0

Eric Roseberry

Vargas is off to a hot start for the Royals and has become a wanted man in fantasy league. How much value might he sustain for fantasy owners?

By Eric Roseberry

The Buyer’s Guide is a weekly column designed to help fantasy owners assess a player who sees an increased level of interest during a given week. This column will focus on players who generally have lower than 40 percent ownership rates across various leagues.

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Kendall from Alex City had better baseball connections when he was a kid than he realized, and lessons learned half a lifetime ago are fueling his success for the A's.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Kendall Graveman struggled at first to remember the name of the man who taught him the grip for his best pitch, a sinking fastball. It’s kind of a funny story, learning to grip what has become one of the most effective pitches in the majors, from a man who today coaches the hitters for a junior-college softball team, who also in part learned about the importance of finger strength from conversations with a national-champion arm wrestler. It all sounds so over the top, but it's true: You just never know how wisdom will get passed along between generations.

About the coach’s name. After being given a moment to think, does Graveman remember?

“I do ...” Graveman said, his face grimacing as the mental wheels turned. “I don’t. It was at Central Alabama Community College. Heck, he may still be there. It’s a junior college in my hometown.

“We didn’t have a lot of connections in Alexander City.”

Read the full article...

April 13, 2017 1:49 am

Feature Article

0

David Brown

Kendall from Alex City had better baseball connections when he was a kid than he realized, and lessons learned half a lifetime ago are fueling his success for the Oakland Athletics.

Read the full article...

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April 12, 2017 6:00 am

Daily League Strategy: Week 2: Picking Pitchers

0

Tim Finnegan

Skills—for the pitcher, for his opponent and his even own lineup—all matter when picking for daily leagues. But so does ballpark environment.

In Week 1, we discussed basic strategies for picking hitters to roster in daily leagues. One of the key points from that article is that fantasy owners want to find hitters who have a good chance to be in a high run-scoring environment. Focusing on opposing-pitcher quality—meaning, finding opposing pitchers who do not usually effectively prevent runs, prevent extra base hits, or prevent baserunners—is a good first step.

This week, we'll do the opposite and focus on basic ways to pick pitchers. Generally, when picking a pitcher, I look for a few key things. I want a pitcher who has a good chance to be in a low run-scoring environment, because pitchers are docked points for allowing earned runs. I want a pitcher who will pitch deep into the game, because pitchers gain points the more innings they throw, and in some formats for quality starts (6+ IP of 3 ER or less). I want a pitcher who will get enough run support to be in position for a victory, because pitchers earn points when they are credited with the win. And I want a pitcher who is going to rack up strikeouts, because pitchers get points for strikeouts. It’s sometimes difficult to find all of these qualities in one pitcher, so I look for as many as possible.

To do this, considering the quality of the opposing team that the pitcher is facing is important, just like with picking hitters. A punchless lineup in a pitcher's park on a chilly night is going to have a more difficult time scoring runs than a high-powered lineup in a hitter's park on a hot summer night. A lineup that has a lot of swing-and-miss in it, like the 2016 Brewers, who had a team-strikeout rate near 26 percent, makes it more likely that a pitcher can generate strikeouts. A team starting an ineffective pitcher against a team that is running out their own ace makes it more likely that the ace pitcher will get run support and be in position for the win, because his opponent is starting a pitcher who is prone to giving up runs.

Looking at splits is important, too. If a lineup is right-handed heavy, starting a pitcher who eats up righties, someone like Julio Teheran, can be another good way to increase the chances of run prevention and the accumulation of strikeouts. Teheran’s numbers have been dramatically better against right-handed hitters. Since the start of 2015, Teheran has an outstanding .570 OPS against, 2.78 Fielding Independent Pitching and 26.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handed batters. Home splits are also notable. Starting pitchers league-wide are more effective at preventing runs and baserunners in home games. The reason for this could be related to the pregame bullpen. A home pitcher throws his pregame bullpen and goes right to the mound while he’s hot, while the road pitcher sits in the dugout after his bullpen and cools down for a half-inning. That’s one theory, anyway. I generally favor picking a home pitcher over a road pitcher when most factors are close because of the league splits, assuming the pitcher’s home park isn’t a haven for scoring runs due to environmental or ballpark effects.

In terms of the pitcher's own skill set, the primary stats I look at when picking pitchers are OPS against, ERA, FIP, and strikeout rate (K%—not K/9). I prefer K% over K/9 because K% uses the total number of batters faced and paints a more accurate picture of strikeout skill. Finding pitchers who are efficient with their pitch counts also is helpful for finding pitchers who can get deep into games and rack up points for innings pitched.

So, for example, yesterday I picked Carlos Carrasco for a few reasons. Obviously, Carrasco’s own skills are really good, but the matchup he had is what grabbed my attention the most. Carrasco was facing a below-average White Sox team at Cleveland that has a lineup projected to score in the bottom five league-wide in total runs for the rest of the season. The opposing pitcher for the White Sox was James Shields, one of the least-effective pitchers in baseball over the past year. Carrasco looked like a good bet to prevent runs, get run support and be in position to get the win. Shields ended up only giving up one run, so run support wasn’t there like I had expected, but Carrasco pitched well enough to score well in fantasy by logging seven innings pitched, getting seven strikeouts, and allowing one run and four hits. Identifying favorable situations like these is something I find important when making pitching choices in daily leagues.

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July 23, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Once and Future Braves

1

R.J. Anderson

If coaches are hired to get fired, pitchers are signed to get released.



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June 12, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Dynasty League Risers: Pitchers

4

J.J. Jansons

Steven Matz, Michael Kopech, and a half-dozen other arms movin' on up in the fantasy prospect world.

Last week, we profiled hitting prospects who have improved their value in dynasty leagues over the first couple months of the season. We do the same this week for pitching prospects, the trickiest of propositions in dynasty leagues, where many are able to rise from the lower levels of the minor leagues at an accelerated pace and establish value in dynasty leagues in short order, similar to Reynaldo Lopez during the 2014 season.

These eight pitching prospects have significantly improved their value in 2015:

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December 4, 2014 6:00 am

Retrospective Player Valuation: Mixed-League Pitchers

3

Mike Gianella

An in-depth look at pitchers' returns on fantasy investments in mixed formats during the past season.

This is the final installment in a six-part series on player valuation. The first five parts of the series covered AL and NL-only league valuation for hitters and pitchers, and mixed-league valuation for hitters. This article concludes the series with a look back at pitchers.

As with the mixed league hitters, there are no plans to reinvent the wheel and run through the painstaking steps that got me to my mixed league valuations. There is a significant change on the pitching side of the ledger that will be addressed within the body of the article. A full look at the methodology behind the valuations can be found here.

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November 20, 2014 6:00 am

Retrospective Player Valuation: National League Pitchers

0

Mike Gianella

An in-depth look at senior-circuit arms' fantasy performance during the past year.

This is the fourth part of a six-part series looking back at valuation in 2014. Today, I look at what pitchers earned in the National League.

Before I dig in, here is a brief description of the charts below.

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November 13, 2014 6:00 am

Retrospective Player Valuation: American League Pitchers

8

Mike Gianella

An in-depth look at junior-circuit arms' fantasy performance during the past year.

On Tuesday, I took a look back at American League hitters from a Rotisserie valuation standpoint. Today, I’ll tackle the pitchers in the junior circuit.

Before I dig in, here is a brief description of the charts below.

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October 2, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Are Elite Pitchers Becoming More Numerous?

2

J.P. Breen

We might be in the "Era of the Pitcher," but does that mean that the league is teeming with top-shelf arms?

Early last week, I reintroduced the concept of the Holy Trinity and outlined the 19 starting pitchers who qualified for the elite status. Furthermore, I argued that Holy Trinity pitchers, on average, significantly outperform the league-average pitcher. While that’s not a groundbreaking discovery, the estimated margin of 1.00 ERA for any HT pitcher over the league-average starter is remarkable enough to perhaps persuade fantasy owners to specifically alter their draft board in order to target them.

However, the HT list from 2014 is merely a piece of the puzzle. It begs the question: Are HT pitchers increasing in frequency as pitching continues to dominate across Major League Baseball?

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The injury impact of high-stress innings.

In their recent “position paper” on preventing elbow injuries in Major League (and Minor League and College and High School and Little League) Baseball, Drs. James Andrews and Glen Fleisig had an interesting recommendation for young pitchers: Don’t throw with 100 percent effort on every pitch. The arm, particularly the elbow, isn’t made to take that much stress all the time.

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