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Chat: Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday March 03, 2014 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings.

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Having climbed the prospect ranking mountain and come down the other side, Jason takes questions on the Top 10s, the Top 101, the Org Rankings, and anything else on your mind.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I have to hit the fields this afternoon, so I apologize in advance for the shorter chat. Let's go for it.

MetsFaithful5 (Syracuse): Where would you rank the mets system currently?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I ranked them #8 in baseball. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22906

MetsFaithful5 (Syracuse): Any true similiarites between Casey Meisner and Noah Syndergaard? Aside from being native texans! They have similar builds (obviously, Meisner may still grow another inch or so and will definitely add some weight, as Thor did in the last year plus). And was Syndergaard pegged a Potenial 1/2 starter when he was first drafted?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: They are both tall. Different bodies and arsenals. Syndergaard could be a 1/2 type; I put a mid-rotation ceiling on Meisner.

Uncle Jessie (Hazzard County): Name a few of the higher ceiling prospects just outside the top 101.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Just to name a few: Jose Martinez, Francisco Mejia, Edwin Diaz, Jefry Rodriguez, Amed Rosario, Mauricio Cabrera

Catch a theme here?

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Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I love Hermes. Thanks for sharing.

aceblack (PA): Chances Hunter Harvey starts this year in Low-A?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I think that's where he should start

Damon (Louisville): Other than his size, is their any reason to think Correa will have to move off SS? And from a scouting perspective, do you think it's lazy to automatically question the ability to stick at a position simply based on size?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: No. Size as it pertains to range is the only thing that would move him off. He's a big kid and he's going to get bigger, but he has a very good glove and a very strong arm.

I don't think its lazy. I think its a physical projection. We are often looking at players in their teens, and when they are already 6'4'' with frames to hold man-sized bodies, it would be lazy to overlook such physical dimensions when looking towards the future.

steve (CA): Do you think Josh Bell with stick at corner OF or a move to first base is more likely?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I think he can stick in a corner if he maintains his body.

Steve (CA): Can you give a little detail as to why you temper your excitment more than others when it comes to Glasnow? I noticed you didn't grade any of his pitches higher than a 6+, how do you think he managed to miss so many bats without a true plus pitch in your eyes?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Well, he has plus pitches in my eyes. I gave him a 6+ FB at present (which would be a plus-plus pitch with better command) and projected his CB to reach 6, which is plus. I also ranked him #42 overall in the minors, which isn't bad for a player with only 24 starts at the full-season level.

Antoine (Jason Park's Jock Strap): Jason, would you change the Twins and Cubs farm system rankings due to the Sano injury?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Sano is hurt and will miss the upcoming season, but its not like he died or anything. He still exists and will likely return to full strength for 2015. Doesn't change the system in my eyes.

Tony (Chicago... FOR NOW): Sir King Jason the 4th, you saw the Cubs play at their new facility yesterday. My question is this, how many pants did you soil while watching those Cubs prospects?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I was very impressed with the facility and the talent on the fields. I wrote a 1500 words of scouting notes (mostly on Baez) and that will be up on the site tomorrow. Here's a tease from the upcoming report:

"Baez has the best bat speed Iíve seen since I started evaluating talent at the minor league level, and it might be some of the best bat speed Iíve seen period. Itís violentóno doubtóand Iím not always sold that he can control the bat after he triggers. But when he unsheathes that weapon and it finds the ball, the cowhide screams in what I believe to both ecstasy and agony."

Dave (Lexington): If both are still catching, who is the better player in three years: Gary Sanchez or Jorge Alfaro?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Alfaro. Not even close for me.

Chad (OKC): Who is the prospect primed to make the largest jump in the rankings during this season?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: David Dahl

Ryan (Chicago): Thoughts on Marcus Semien? Better offensively than Beckham?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Yes. I'd take him over Beckham. Nothing flashy, but a solid ballplayer. Second-division type.

Ben (Clemson): Is Kyle Parker's bat big enough to make him a regular at first base?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Probably not.

Shawn (Dallas): What MLB player does Odor most remind you of?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Jason Kipnis with a little less physicality and pop and little more swagger.

Brandon (Florida ): Victor Roache seems to be somewhat of a forgotten man in the Brewers system. Do you like him as a rebound candidate? He hit pretty well down the stretch after recovering from a wrist injury.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He has a lot of power but I'm not sold he can actually hit.

Ryan (Pitt): Has anything changed since winter ball about your future projection of G. Polanco? What do you see?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: No. I think his projection is the same as it was before winter ball.

Tom (Baltimore): Who is currently overrated prospect in baseball right now?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Glasnow gets bigger love than I'm comfortable with. I like the prospect and ranked him pretty high in a loaded class, but I've seen him ranked higher than Gausman or Ventura on some lists and that just doesn't make any sense to me.

Rick (Dallas): I haven't heard much about Gabriel Guerrero, are you a fan? Is he someone who could start to appear on lists by midseason?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I wrote about Guerrero a lot last season; might have been the only guy beating that drum during camp of 2013. Yes; I really like him. Right now he looks the part more than acts the part, at least as it pertains to on-the-field production. But he has incredible bat speed and hand-eye coordination. Not sold on his pitch recognition skills, which could be a problem.

Chad (OKC): Which prospect that you haven't been able to see in person are you most interested in watching during Spring Training?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I'm really looking forward to spending more time around Tim Anderson and Raimel Tapia this camp.

Howie (NYC): I don't have a question (at least not right now, I'll see if I can think of one in the next few hours). I just want to say "thanks" for your terrific work.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I appreciate this. Many thanks.

John Rambo (Bowie, Arizona): Better Stallone series, Rambo or Rocky?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I adore the first Rambo movie. As much as I can appreciate the Rocky films--I'm a huge Carl Weathers man--the first Rambo movie stands out to the point that I prefer the entire series over Rocky. The first Rocky isn't a slouch either, but man, First Blood isn't a movie to mess with. I might be out on an island with that opinion, though.

Rambo or Rocky? (Times Square): Who wins a street fight between Rambo and Rocky with a weapons snake draft from a random trash can on a Times Square street corner?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Rambo wins every day of the week.

kevr4a6441 (Colorado): I am curious why Kyle Parker is not ranked for the Rockies. Parker looks to have more upside than David Dahl and be better equipped to takeover either RF or 1B in 2015?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He was ranked #9th in the Rockies system. He didn't rank higher because he has a difficult, offensive-only profile with the problem being that his offensive doesn't project to be that great. Parker's upside isn't close to Dahl's upside.

JusFatDogginIt (Arkansas): Will the Brewers be close to having a top 50 prospect in the next year? Two years? Three? Ever? What do you see them looking for in the draft this year? Thanks.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Unless Tyrone Taylor or Devin Williams go nuts in 2014/2015, its hard to see a Brewers prospect with that level of helium.

joeykneecaps (Panera bread during a snowstorm): Syndergaard, Giolito, or Gray in dynasty?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Shadynasty's

swish99 (PA): How can a young kid who wants to be in your position work to get there, Jason?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Watch as many games as you possible can in person, and through those experiences build a network or people in the industry that can help augment and guide you as you start to document those on-the-field experiences. Then be patient and build up your skills, both at the fields and in writing. Take advantage of opportunities when they arrive and make sacrifices in order to achieve what you want. Quality work will stand out.

JWP123 (Iowa City): Vogelbach has slimmed down noticeably over the winter, did you get a chance to see him take bp yesterday? If so, what are your thoughts?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I didn't see his batting practice. While I'm glad that he slimmed down, I don't think that changes anything about his profile. He's still a 1B/DH type that will have to hit the ceilings of his offensive projections to be a first-division player.

Joe (MKE): What would you consider a "good" season for Devin Williams?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Staying healthy, building innings and refining his fastball command while showing some feel for secondary execution.

Jordan (Chicago): Could you have any more of a man crush on Javy Baez? #LightSpeedSwing

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: No. Its actually not possible. His bat speed is elite and I'd pay to watch it.

Ben (Dallas): Rougned Odor has a high leg kick and lots of movement in his swing. Are you concerned that major league pitchers may be able to exploit this?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Adjustments will need to occur, but this isn't unique to Odor. You stick with what works until it stops working and then you adjust. The best players are the ones that can make the necessary adjustments. I think he has that aptitude.

HoosierCub (Bloomington): Despite having guys like CJ Edwards, Kyle Hendricks, and others, conventional wisdom is that the Cubs have a dearth of arms (in comparison to bats) in their farm system. Any pitching prospects you feel especially good about, or do you agree with that assessment?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: They have more bats than arms, but Edwards, Johnson, and Blackburn are a nice foundation, and I expect the Cubs to go heavy on arms in the 2014 draft.

dcapofari (ny): Wilmer Flores is playing ss in the second half of todays game, any chance he look good and stick there?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He won't be a good shortstop. He doesn't have the range to excel there at the highest level. I guess the kind way of putting it is that Flores isn't an ideal shortstop, physically speaking. He has really nice hands and a strong arm, but the range is just what you want at the position. I think he could be a very good 3B, but obviously that's not going to happen with the Mets. Underrated player, though. He doesn't get enough credit for being able to hit. He's a natural hitter that keeps getting stronger.

Michael (Chicago): How far does Sano's injury send the Twins down the Org rankings?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: it doesn't Twins still have the #1 farm in baseball. Sano is still in the system. He's just out for the season. The monster ceiling remains attainable.

guest (chicago): Who ends up a better MLB hitter, Alcantara or Odor?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Odor. I think the more interesting question is who ends up the better major leaguer: Profar or Odor? You might be surprised how many votes Odor would receive if you polled the industry.

Jake Smith (SEMO): Would you throw the generational talent label on Byron Buxton a la Griffey, Pujols, Trout?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He's pretty special, man. No doubt. But of all the players in the minors, I'd throw a generational label on Baez over Buxton. It comes with more risk and Buxton is a no-doubt up-the-middle player at the next level and a future all-star, but Baez has the generational ceiling.

John (Cincinnati): Did you a get a good look at Jorge Soler while Cub scouting? If so, how's he looking?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He's a very large man. He's listed at 6'4'' 215 but he looks more like an NFL tight end than a ballplayer. Impressive raw power but low-energy player that will require more developmental patience than first thought.

Erix (NYU): I believe the Jays took Stroman with the comp pick for Beede. Which of those 2 would you prefer going forward?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Stroman

Shawnykid23 (CT): Do you think Mookie Betts could play SS at the major-league level?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I think he could make it work, although it wouldn't be that smooth.

aceblack (PA): Pick one to build around: Profar, Bogaerts, Lindor, Baez, Correa, or Russell?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Tough question. Building around seems to suggest stability--a foundation--so that pushes me towards Bogaerts.

Greg (Boston): How about Townes closing out True Detective last night?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I missed it. Was working on the U25 best/worst list and my camp notes from the day.

Frank (Williamsburg): I was surprised to see Kevin Gausman rated higher than Manny Machado on the O's list. Given Machado's defensive prowess, does this mean you don't see Machado's as a .300 hitter with 30+ bombs anymore? Thanks and great work!

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I love Machado. I didn't produce the individual U25 lists. I believe Chris Mellen ranked Gausman over Machado, a decision he said he wrestled with for a while.

Kyle (New Jersey): What non-top 101 Ranger has the best chance to break out this season and reach the 101?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Marcos Diplan or Nomar Mazara

Kevin (San Diego): True Detective: How close to grade-80 is that show?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I love it. I really love it. It's an 80 for me.

Gila Monster (Massachusetts): What young pitcher had the best mechanics you saw? What would you rate it as?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Aaron Sanchez's release is one of the best I've seen, but I wouldn't say his mechanics (as a whole) are the best. My go-to answer is usually a young Neftali Feliz. He was upper-90s with no effort. It just exploded like he was playing catch. It was scary. It actually scared me because it was so easy.

Shawnykid23 (CT): I second waht Howie said, and selfishly ask that you not leave us for a MLB team anytime soon!

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I enjoy my job. The long-term goal is to work in baseball, and I'll entertain that when the right opportunity comes along. But I really love what I get to do for a living and I love the people I get to work with at Baseball Prospectus. I'm more worried about losing members of my prospect team than anything else. We lost three good ones after the 2013 season, and based on the conversations I've had with teams, I could lose that many after the 2014 season as well.

Steve (KC): John Lamb's velocity was in the low 90's during his first spring training outing. Is there still hope?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I saw Lamb yesterday, and his arm was noticeably faster. It was a short-burst outing, so lets not get crazy here. But he was 90-92 and touched 93, which is the best I've seen him since the injury.

richardkr34 (Saint Paul, MN): What top prospect has the best mustache?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I would love to see Francisco Lindor grow a thick mustache. I believe he has the necessary facial aesthetics for it.

Mo (Minneapolis): Any plans for a BP event for the Futures Game in Minneapolis?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: We might be doing something. Still early in that process. We will definitely be there, though.

Val Kilmer (A Lonely Place): Did your friend enjoy having sex with me?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I assume so

MatthewDavid (Watkins, MN): Please rank the safiest blue chipper. Josh Bell PIT Jorge Bonifacio KC Joc Pederson LAD Cj Cron LAA.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Pederson. No contest.

Shawnykid23 (CT): If Lucas Giolito blows hitters away in Low/High A (which seems likely), couldn't he hit AA before an innings limit this year, and then be up in the MLB at the end of 2015?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I think its best if he stays in Low-A for the full-season. This is a winning lottery ticket, so just let him ease into the innings at the full-season level and work on his fastball command. In 2015, take off the training wheels and let him destroy the world at his own pace.

Matt Trueblood (Fridley, MN): I'm surprised how unfazed you are about the Sano injury. I see three areas of risk that this either introduces or exacerbates: 1. It hurts the chances that he sticks at third base, if only marginally. 2. It puts pressure on him to handle the time off really well, and keep his body from ballooning, or he loses any hope of sticking at third, and might become a suspect corner OF. 3. He's promising for his monstrous power and mature approach, but has significant adjustments to make. This kicks that can down the road, and will force him to make more and faster adjustments on the other side of the injury. Am I totally off-base, or just overstating each problem?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: The problems you mention are legit, and I'm not trying to come off too nonchalant about his injury, which is a legit and substantial setback. But if you project to be a role 7 type, which I did, you expect him to face adversity along the way and make all the necessary adjustments to reach that potential. This is a hurdle--no doubt--but so is facing major league pitching or falling on your ass at the major league level or dealing with the trappings of success. This injury could make him a better player because of the struggle and dedication to overcome it. If he lets his body escape him during the layoff and loses his positional value as a result, I'm not sure we can put that on the injury. We would have to put that on Sano, and if that is the case, other things in his path would likely disrupt him from his ceiling anyway.

Tom (Baltimore): Who do you think will be the better player 3 years from today? Manny Machado or Xander Bogaerts?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Machado.

Kyle (New Jersey): Do you see Lindor as the best shortstop in baseball a few years from now?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: No. Best defensive shortstop is more likely than best all-around shortstop. He's going to hit for average with good on-base ability and some gap pop, but his overall offensive profile won't be able to stand with some of those other monsters in his prospect class.

Colin (Chicago): I assume you've been having your own Spring Training for brat eating to get ready for the Milwaukee event.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: One of my best friends is from Wisconsin and a rabid brat enthusiast, so I've been eating those delicious creations prepared by local hands for the last decade. I'm ready. Bring it on.

johnorpheus (St. Louis): Tim Cooney was lights out yesterday. Granted it was spring training, but it looked like he was located everything where he wanted it. Could his stuff play way up if he has plus plus control and command over multiple pitches, a la cliff lee?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Cliff Lee has elite command. Cooney is sharp and can locate his stuff, but it has to be sharp to find sustainable results. He can't get away with a lot of mistakes. I like the arsenal and the command profile, but I don't think he's going to be anywhere close to a frontline arm at the highest level.

Silv (BK): As a modern legend of the scouting world, have your housing arrangements for ST improved at all, or are you still copping a squat in the midst of a Krokodil hellhole?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I've been fortunate enough the last few years to be a house in Peoria. Nice neighborhood, close to the park. Life is better.

Evan (California ): Is Clint Frazier someone you think can take a huge step forward this year into one of the top prospects in baseball? Top 10?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: He has that potential with the bat, yes. Huge bat speed.

steve (lincoln ): How did Yordano Ventura's offspeed stuff look when you saw him? Do you have concerns on his lack of height affecting the movement of his fastball?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I don't. He has incredibly long fingers and gets really good action on the ball.

Jason Mcleod (Arizona): He's waiting for me to get my GM job.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Who wouldn't want to work for McLeod? He's one of the best evaluators in the game.

GoneTroutFishin (NJ): If you were a GM, which SP would you rather build your rotation around - Gerrit Cole or Jose Fernandez?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Fernandez

GoneTroutFishin (NJ): If you were a GM, which SP would you rather build your rotation around - Gerrit Cole or Jose Fernandez?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Fernandez

Greg (San Jose): Who ends up the better major leaguer: Rendon or Profar?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Profar

Top100 (Boston ): Keeping in mind that it is a still a bit early... Who are your preliminary predictions for top 5 next year?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Buxton, Baez, Gray, Rodon, Correa

Ned F. (Springfield): Which will be the first team to win 90 games: Cubs, Astros or Twins?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Very tough question. Astros could have Appel and Rodon for 2015, to go along with a nice collection of young talent and a lot of money to spend. Cubs lack that sort of pitching, but have the best young positional talent in the minors. Twins have the best farm, but Sano is a setback and the talent is spread throughout every level of the minors. My answer is Astros.

Scott (Lincolnshire): Everyone talks about A. Almora's off the charts makeup and approach to the game. How much does that translate into actual production for a team? It's great to be a nice guy and work hard and all, but give me the high ceiling guy over the low floor guy any day. Thoughts?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: I think his makeup stems from his approach to the game and the enjoyment he seems to get from that, not the fact that he is well-liked, which I can't really speak to. He also doesn't have a low floor. He's a natural baseball player with solid-average to plus tools and profiles as a first-division player at a premium position. I don't give a shit if a player is well-liked or considered nice. I care if they put in the work, can make adjustments, and keep themselves focused. That's how I judge makeup. Almora receives high marks in that department

Shawn (CT): How many guys in the minors do you think can be legit #1 arms?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Less than five; maybe less than three.

Daff (UK): Love your work, had to go back and start listening to 'Up and In'. Hilarious. Love it, learning loads and laughing at the same time. 2 questions, given I'm still in 2010 (episode 13): 1 - How much cred do you want to give yourself for being in on Alfaro almost 4 years ago; 2 - How did the divorce go? Cool, 'Cooking with the Professor' just came on! Cheers, Daff

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: Thanks. Getting to watch Alfaro when he was 16 helped get me in early with that projection. I was around him quite a bit in those early years, and it wasn't hard to see the upside. Int's amazing how watching players in person can give you that perspective. Go figure.

The divorce went well.

sbnbaseball (all over): during the offseason, how many hours each day are you writing, calling contacts, etc for each of the team prospect rankings? Including weekends?

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: From October to the end of February, I try to work every day of the week, with some days being a little lighter than others. I normally spend anywhere from 20-40 hours per team, which includes research and writing, so in a given week, I might log 60-80 hours of work. But its convenient because I get to do it from home (no games to attend) and I can start the clock on the day whenever I want. I like to wake up very early to write and then I like to make industry calls later on in the evening, so it helps space the days. That said, I'm thankful to be out in Arizona watching baseball again. The days are equally as a long, but its better to be at the fields than it is to be stuck in my apartment writing.

Speaking of the fields, I apologize for such a short chat, but I have to hit the fields. Let's do this again soon. With morning workouts and games in the afternoon/evening, we should have plenty to discuss.

Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings: As usual, the questions were abundant and fantastic. Thanks again. Lo mejor -J


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