Prospect #1: 3B Nolan Arenado
Background with Player: My eyes; industry sources
Who: Selected in the 2^nd round in the 2009 draft, Arenado has emerged as the best pure hitting prospect in the system. Armed with fantastic hands that are both quick and strong, the 21-year-old can barrel balls to all fields, showing the ability to hit in all quadrants against a variety of offerings. He’s not as gifted in the field, were his below-average speed creates a limited workspace at the hot corner, but his glove is at least average and his arm is a plus tool, so his overall skill set will play in the majors. The total package is a first-division talent, with a high-6 hit tool that comes with a mature approach, enough bat speed and strength to prompt some scouts into projecting plus power down the line, and enough defense to stay above water at third.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: Arenado is a great prospect, and every team in baseball would welcome him into the fold with open arms, but what could go wrong in 2012 is that the realities of the skill set start to become more representational against more advanced pitching, leaving the picture of a good prospect, but not one with impact level talent at the next level. I really like Arenado’s approach to hitting, as he’s aggressive without being reckless, and he shows pitch recognition skills and the ability to adjust in sequence. He’s a smart hitter that can stay inside a pitch and drive the ball, and manipulate the barrel to match the plane of breaking balls. But his swing wasn’t built for over-the-fence power, as his linear stroke works better in the gaps, despite the raw strength and bat speed necessary for power. Some scouts think the power will develop down the line, as Arenado learns to introduce more loft in his swing, but how much hit tool utility will be sacrificed for the sake of power? I asked around to get ceilings on Arenado, and the majority saw him as a potential .275+ hitter with 10-15 home runs and a truckload of doubles. I like this projection, as it's reasonable and realistic, but it’s not a first-division talent, is it? A few other sources saw a .300+ hitter with 25+ bombs a year, which would make Arenado an All-Star and one of the most valuable players at his position in baseball. Because he’s taking his licks at the Double-A level, we are going to get a better view of what Arenado will be able to bring to the table in the future, as the major leagues are very much within his reach. We all know Arenado can hit, but the questions will be: how much can hit, and how much power will he be able to bring into game action? Again, I think he’s a great prospect, but I tend to think his future is closer to a solid-average regular than an All-Star, which is still a very valuable player to have.

Prospect #1: RHP Trevor Bauer
Background with Player: My eyes; industry sources
Who: Selected with the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was seen by many as the most major league ready arm in the class, a pitcher that could ascend to the highest level in short order. Unfortunately known more for his torque-heavy delivery and idiosyncratic warm-up/cool-down routines than his arsenal, Bauer might have the deepest collection of pitches in the minors, a treasure chest of above-average offerings that he creates and crafts like a scientist on the mound; the 21-year-old righty has multiple fastballs thrown with varying velocity and movement, multiple breaking balls (including a plus slider and a plus curve), multiple change-of-pace offerings (including a plus changeup and a trapdoor splitter), not to mention pitches that are unique creations that observations fail to properly identify. His approach and commitment to pitching is as focused as you will find in the game and, despite some early professional struggles with command and control, the total package has a chance to be special. Assuming good health, Bauer will be a number three starter at worst, and if refinement occurs and efficiency improves, he could pitch atop a major league rotation in the very near future.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: The great irony of Trevor Bauer is that he is viewed as the ultimate baseball rat; he doesn’t breathe oxygen, he actually breathes pitching. From his long-toss routine, to his stretches, to his relentless pursuit of biomechanical-related scholarship, to his home-brewed arsenal, Bauer is consumed by his craft. But one of the knocks on Bauer has been that he often looks more like a thrower than a pitcher, showing an impressive arsenal, but lacking the feel to execute with efficiency. A few scouts suggested that his current inefficiency stems from his laboratory approach to pitching; his need to tinker with his deep arsenal to the point that he forgets his main objective is to coerce outs. These particular sources weren’t sour on his command profile, as they felt he could throw strikes if he made throwing strikes his objective, but they did mention that the poster boy for pitchability was struggling with his pitchability. If it’s really as simple as too much tinkering and not enough touch, Bauer is going to be just fine. He has a ton of toys and he’s still trying to figure out which ones belong in the toy box and which ones belong on the field. The minor leagues are the perfect environment for experimentation, so it’s hard to fault Bauer for striving to examine and refine this particular aspect of his game. However, with a little more focus towards efficiency and strike-throwing, Bauer could be at the major league level, bringing his unique brand of baseball to the biggest stage, and getting the results that could make him a star.

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Prospect #1: RHP Dylan Bundy
Background with Player: Industry sources
Who: The fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy was seen by many, including Kevin Goldstein, as the best player available in the entire class, which, if you haven’t noticed, has a chance of being historically incredibl. Bundy is the rare high school draftee that arrives on the scene with a combination of now stuff and slick polish. The 19-year-old native of Oklahoma has elite upside, with all the characteristics necessary to profile as an ace. His body is strong and mature, and his delivery is clean and repeatable. His fastball can work comfortably in the mid-90s and has touched triple digits. It’s a lively offering that Bundy shows preternatural command over, not only in the ability to locate the pitch but to change speeds and vary the movement (2/4/cut). The curveball projects to be a plus offering, and those who have seen it in person rave about its shape. High school arms don’t usually enter professional ball with plus changeups for a reason, but Bundy already has a changeup that grades out at that level, and some think it could be a 7 pitch at maturity.  It’s very uncommon to find a pitcher with this combination of stuff, polish, and pitchability, and barring an unforeseen injury, Bundy looks like a future ace at the major league level. How many arms can boast that ceiling? This is a special arm.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: We don’t know yet. Not passing the buck, but we haven’t been given a long enough look so far in 2012; Bundy is pitching with too much efficiency and having too much success, and the sample size is too small to really get a good picture of what (if any) holes exist in the skill set. It’s hard to breakdown how he will use pitch sequence multiple times through an order, or how he will respond when he doesn’t have his best stuff, or how he will respond to failure because he’s only thrown 13 innings and has crushed the competition like a major leaguer on a rehab assignment. In those 13 innings, Bundy has dropped 21 hitters on strikes, walked one, and has allowed a grand total of zero hits. The reality is that Bundy might not face a serious test until he reaches Double-A, and even then the test might be an easy one for him to pass. I’m not trying to overhype just to overhype, but there are some people in the industry who think Bundy has the necessary ingredients to pitch at the major league level this season. I can appreciate the excitement, but the developmental process is more than just finding success at your particular minor league assignment, and Bundy still has a lot to learn as a pitcher and as a person. This is going to be fun to watch over the season, and, with more looks and more innings, we will be able to paint a better picture.

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As I was watching the Yu Darvish start against the Yankees, it dawned on me that the Japanese hurler might have more pitches than I was originally led to believe. Those who read this site are aware that I’ve been watching Darvish since his first intra-squad game back in early March, which makes me a Darvish hipster, and an unapologetic one at that. Because of my familiarity with the pitcher, I’ve been able to identify his deep arsenal, one that features both a two- and four-seam fastball, a cutter, two type of curveballs, a slider, a splitter, and a straight-change, but up until tonight’s game against the Yankees, I hadn’t noticed that he was throwing what I’ve seen described as a shuuto, or a reverse slider.

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When I travel I like to fall in love. That’s not to suggest I’m out on the road looking for lust, or creeping on any unsuspecting female that happens to find herself in my environment. Love for me is intrigue and inspiration, finding someone with a certain aesthetic quality that I can focus on without the tether of intimacy or even the necessity of communication. I am forever in a search for a diversionary muse, a person or thing capable of deflecting some of my thoughts away from the central task at hand. When I travel, I tend to overload the docket with baseball and baseball-related tasks; I think about the game on the way to the game; I watch batting practice and infield and then I think about batting practice and infield; I watch the game, I think about the game, I write about the game, I think about what I wrote about the game, and then I await the loop to reach its clasp and start all over again. Inserting a muse into this cycle grants my mind the freedom to dream, a distraction from a focus that at times can consume me. When I travel I like to fall in love. On the Greyhound bus from New York City to Wilmington, Delaware, I fell in love with a girl made of plastic.

I was standing at gate 75 in New York City’s Port Authority bus terminal, waiting for the clock to strike 11 am so I could board the bus to Wilmington and scout some Carolina League baseball, when an elderly Asian woman with more bags than body parts to carry those bags told the restive queue at gate 75 that the bus had already boarded at gate 68. This is why people hate life. This is also why people have cars. I rushed to the new gate, deposited my bag in the belly of the beast, and stepped onto the bus to locate a seat. I first noticed the girl made of plastic when I anxiously walked the aisle looking for an open seat, which was a panic attack with every step, much like finding a seat in a crowded junior high cafeteria when you aren’t cool or a movie theater fifteen minutes after show time. All eyes were on me and I felt like the last kid picked for kickball. I spot two open seats in the entire bus, one next to a man with substantial girth and a face and a smell that didn’t suggest kindness, and the other next to a girl who looked like a toy, complete with hardcover shell and a color palate designed to stimulate the eye of a child. She was in the window seat, with a translucent handbag resting in the free seat to her immediate right; her open-toed shoes and articulately painted pink nails accompanying the bag, acting as a deterrent for those seeking a place to sit. It was perfect.

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“Baseball is my stereo, and this ain't no garden party, brother, this is wrestling, where only the strongest survive.” –Ric Flair

I just returned home from a five-day scouting expedition, where I saw organizational players and prospects alike recite their lines on the advanced A-ball stage. Wilmington, Delaware was the setting for this theater, and I probably escaped the state with more stories that originated outside the ballpark than on the field itself, and trust me, I was able to gather plenty of stories from the action taking place on the field. My next article might have to focus on the eclectic cab driver who took a casual conversation about adult metabolism and escalated it into a tale of karate and gunfights, the 30-year-old hotel bartender who foolishly thought he could play shortstop in the high minors, and the previously mentioned girl on the bus, who looked like a toy, complete with the plastic package that separates the product from the hands of the outside world, but baseball is still fresh on my mind, and the notes from the Wilmington Blue Rocks/Carolina Mudcats series are playing on repeat in my head. I was sad to leave the scene of the crime, but happy to find comfort in the documented history of my travels, the scouting scribbles on prospects like Royals right-hander Jason Adam and Indians middle-infielders Ronny Rodriguez and Tony Wolters. Let’s just do this.

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In the modern age of prognostication, it’s not uncommon to see writers champion their hits and conveniently fail to recall their misses, taking full advantage of the social media at their disposal and exploiting them for their snapshot platforms and schizophrenic memories. I’m included in this cadre, although my placement within the hierarchy is considerably lower than my contemporaries, mainly because I’ve only been on the national scene for a few years, which pales in comparison to others’ tenure in the field, and because of my information-to-entertainment ratio, which admittedly stretches some of the credibility I’ve built up with my productive opinions. My point here centers around credibility, or, better stated, accountability, which is both easy to deflect when opinions go south and easy to bolster when opinions become fact.

To borrow a page from Kevin Goldstein, who has never been shy about putting a spotlight on his opinions from the past, I want to revisit a chat from last spring and put some of my own opinions on trial for their substance. I’ll give myself a pat on the back when applicable and when my self-esteem requires it, but the main point is to see what information you received last year, how that information held up over the last 12 months, and, if the thoughts and opinions turned sour, what was missed then and what has changed now. When it comes to prospect prognostication, we are going to miss more than we hit, and public acknowledgment of that fact won’t change the realities of the field. Prospects are always changing, so answers about prospects are always changing, but there is a difference between the fluidity of the evaluation process and constructing answers on a website with a lackadaisical approach because of question volume. I answered 200 questions in the chat from last April, and was asked close to 500. It’s not hard to conclude that some of my answers were influenced by volume, and those answers need to be called out for falling victim to that approach. I’ll let you be the judge of that.

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“Baseball is my stereo, and I get hit looking for a miss, and I never thought it would come to this.” –A guy who dresses up like Elvis Costello

I arrived in Delaware on Saturday afternoon, and I stuffed all the stories and observations from my journey into the parts of my mind that are tasked with storing rambling tales from the road. For example: I saw a girl on the Greyhound bus with plastic pink shoes and a sundress made from a shiny synthetic fabric that looked like plastic, and I think I was in love with her because she looked so imaginary and plastic and dreamlike, and she blew exaggerated bubbles with her gum and her lips were painted with a waxy, pink gloss, which only added to the illusion and excitement of the situation.

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Prospect #1: C Travis d'Arnaud
Background with Player: My eyes; industry sources
Who: A supplemental first-round selection in the 2007 draft, d’Arnaud has slowly moved up the prospect food chain and now finds himself wearing the label of alpha catcher in the minors. The 23-year-old brings a balanced skill set to the table, with what some scouts have suggested is a well above-average bat for the position, and improving defensive chops that grade out in the solid-average range. d’Arnaud crushed last season in Double-A, hitting for average and power, and propelling himself into the major league discussion for 2012, despite the fact that the Blue Jays already have a promising young catcher penciled into the lineup. Some scouts believe d’Arnaud has multiple All-Star Games in his future, and could emerge as one of the best all-around players at his position in the majors. Lofty praise.

What Could Go Wrong in 2012: With lofty praise comes lofty expectations, and in the case of d’Arnaud, I’m afraid a really good player is being miscast as a really great player. I think d’Arnaud is going to hit in the high-minors, probably not to the level of 2011, but he’s going to hit. He has a good swing that is short to the ball, and he generates good bat speed. He shows legit pop and can lift a ball over the fence, although he’s a better contact oriented gap-to-gap hitter than a sellout-for-power type. At the highest level, I don’t see d’Arnaud as a .300 hitter with 25+ home run potential; rather, I see an above-average stick for the position, but more of a .270 hitter with 25+ doubles and 10+ home runs. I think the swing and the setup can be exploited by pitchers who have location ability and sequence, and since I’ve only seen d’Arnaud crush fringy stuff, I can’t speak to how he will handle top-shelf velocity. It’s a small nitpick, but it’s the difference between a solid major league regular and a perennial all-star. What could go wrong is built into the expectations placed on the player, with the high-end ceilings making letdown and failure almost inescapable. If you think d’Arnaud is a balanced, all-around high-five/low-six type of catcher, he’s probably going to make you happy by playing good defense, hitting for a respectable average, and showing good pop for the position. If you are expecting a Gold Glove-quality defensive player with batting champ credentials and 25+ home run pop, you might be in for disappointment. If d’Arnaud had that suggested potential, he would be considered a top tier prospect in the entire minors, someone who could stand next to the Trouts of the world as a future 7 player. The scouts who put him in that class are either onto something and ahead of the curve, or they are on something and should share with the rest of the class.

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“Baseball is my stereo, and out past the cornfields where the woods got heavy, and out in the back seat of my ’60 Chevy, and workin’ on mysteries without any clues, and workin’ on our night moves.” –A friend of a friend of Bob Seger

The only thing better than watching prospects is watching prospects with high ceilings, and the only thing better than watching prospects with high ceilings is watching prospects with high ceilings who actually start playing like prospects with high ceilings. During my five-week stay in Arizona, I was fortunate enough to spend a lot of time watching the talent in the Kansas City Royals system, and with each subsequent viewing, I walked away from the fields with the another high-end prospect tattooed on my sunburned brain. It’s a pleasing pain. It’s a good hurt.

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