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Prospectus Hit List for September 18



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 16 Hit List for September 21
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

To enter the Hit List, just knock three times. Then the password is Dustin Garneau.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

84

62

93.5

89.9

89.9

.612

.631

90.2%

9.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

Thesis: Home runs are contagious. Proof: Even Cliff Pennington homered. End of thesis.
2

77

70

83.0

86.5

86.7

.567

.586

28.4%

49.8%

78.2%

-1.7%

-17.1%

Their odds of winning the division would be much higher if Hit List algorithms factored in which teams' Martian mascots possessed an Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator.
3

84

61

81.4

90.7

88.9

.595

.575

99.5%

0.0%

99.6%

0.0%

-0.2%

Designating Mat Latos for assignment when he has a 6.66 team ERA with the Dodgers is just ... you know stats are permanent, right?
4

80

65

80.7

79.6

80.5

.553

.573

9.8%

89.3%

99.0%

0.2%

0.7%

Ivan Nova is demoted to the bullpen, because keeping him in the rotation and just calling him "Ivan The Terrible" is a little too on-the-nose.
5

86

60

81.2

76.3

77.0

.549

.568

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Omar Infante's 7-RBI night matched or beat his RBI total in each of the last three months.
6

92

54

87.3

81.5

81.4

.586

.567

94.4%

5.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tommy Pham has homered every time he has batted against Wily Peralta, so he must be the best Mega Man player on the planet.
7

72

73

72.7

82.6

83.2

.535

.555

0.0%

7.7%

7.7%

-5.1%

-10.1%

It's not that the midges that live near Cleveland are pitchervores, but its just that any opposing pitcher in a pennant race who pitched in Cleveland in September has never lived to tell about it.
8

87

59

83.1

82.0

81.0

.570

.551

4.7%

95.3%

100.0%

-0.0%

0.1%

They need a replacement for Jung-ho Kang, Travis Snider needs a place to play everyday, and defensive positions are a social construct.
9

85

61

78.7

83.8

83.0

.566

.546

0.9%

98.8%

99.7%

0.2%

0.5%

Anthony Rizzo last year: .286/.386/.527. Anthony Rizzo this year: 278/.387/.524. PECOTA is gonna run a little faster on this fella.
10

83

63

80.7

81.5

79.3

.556

.536

99.7%

0.0%

99.7%

0.6%

0.9%

We never do this, but my boss said he'll take 100 bucks off the Syndergaard if you buy the car today. You know they put that on in the factory.
11

77

69

82.0

82.2

81.9

.553

.534

0.5%

0.3%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.1%

Giants pitchers have nine home runs, or as many as their second basemen or left fielders -- and thrice that of centerfielders. (Please ignore the .489 OPS, we have a narrative to spread.)
12

70

76

71.1

77.1

77.5

.506

.526

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-3.0%

Great, just because Carlos Peņa works here one day, suddenly everyone else in the organization has to get him a retirement gift.
13

75

71

80.0

83.1

80.1

.545

.525

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

-0.7%

-1.4%

Bryce Harper hasn't won the MVP yet? Curse you, standard-day shipping.
14

79

67

72.3

70.5

70.9

.501

.521

68.9%

23.2%

92.1%

8.1%

44.1%

Drew Stubbs isn't sure how to strike out while pinch-running, but consarnit he's going to invent a way.
15

72

74

75.8

70.9

71.7

.497

.517

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

Call them useless, but if we didn't have pitcher wins, we couldn't say that Ubaldo Jimenez and Chaz Roe lead the team in wins this month, and you wouldn't have that hilarious look on your face.
16

69

76

71.3

73.0

72.6

.493

.513

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This month, David Ortiz has six home runs, Travis Shaw has four, and Hanley Ramirez just found a baseball in his crawlspace.
17

63

84

73.1

74.1

75.9

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Of course, the first year Billy Butler moves out of the AL Central and he still has more home runs against the White Sox than any other team this year.
18

74

72

71.2

68.0

69.5

.484

.504

2.6%

7.4%

10.0%

4.1%

-0.3%

After getting ejected, Jered Weaver probably slammed his glove down in frustration, but fortunately everything in the path of the glove had several seconds to get out of the way.
19

71

76

66.7

72.3

73.4

.482

.502

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

-1.1%

Focal question in every general manager interview: "do you know any catchers?"
20

75

71

72.3

64.0

64.4

.472

.492

0.0%

12.2%

12.2%

-5.9%

-13.2%

If A.J. Achter starts succeding in the majors and wins some awards, then maybe he'll get the chance to be A.J. Direchter.
21

69

76

66.5

64.5

65.7

.458

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

Mike Olt has never seen Arrested Development. He doesn't get the reference. He just thinks everyone is a really big fan of him.
22

67

78

62.0

66.0

67.3

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

J.D. Martinez broke the all-time team record for home runs in a season by a right fielder, and more shockingly, he not faced Anibal Sanchez this season.
23

69

77

73.8

71.8

71.4

.490

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Know who's having a hot September in Arizona? Everybody! But enough about the weather: this team's having trouble winning.
24

61

84

66.1

68.2

68.5

.455

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They could try to get Mat Latos back, free and clear, but they have that whole rookie pitcher streak going, and you just can't have it both ways.
25

64

83

67.7

67.9

66.9

.453

.434

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jarred Cosart is definitely one of the older players assigned to the Arizona Fall League, so he might regale the younger players with stories about Balloon Boy or something.
26

69

78

66.8

64.2

63.8

.449

.429

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Josh Johnson is having a third Tommy John surgery, but fortunately he kept his punch card so this one is free.
27

62

84

65.5

62.6

63.5

.434

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Like your mother always said, never stare directly into the Brewers starting rotation ERA.
28

61

85

61.9

58.6

56.8

.408

.389

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If they play 16-inning games the rest of the way out, Nolan Arenado might just have the angle to hit 60 dingers.
29

57

90

52.5

53.6

53.8

.369

.350

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When your pitching gives up three home runs, and your offense only hits three singles, that's amore.
30

56

91

53.0

49.5

49.5

.354

.336

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When he's in town, I'll give you 7/1 odds Pope Francis will grant the Philies' request to "bless this mess."