Last update: Thu May 15 08:00:59 2008 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesby Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu May 15 07:20:57 EDT 2008
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.8 90.0 85.0 80.0 73.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 24 19 .575 92.4 69.6 48.62918 20.61934 69.24852 -1.79249 -5.66653 Rays 23 17 .542 88.2 73.8 25.87204 22.21545 48.08748 -3.41501 21.25198 Orioles 21 19 .483 78.9 83.1 4.82700 7.06025 11.88725 .94236 2.19761 Yankees 20 21 .514 81.9 80.1 8.46799 11.51053 19.97852 3.46904 1.87541 Blue Jays 20 22 .537 83.8 78.2 12.20379 14.97684 27.18063 1.72456 -7.25724Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.6 83.4 78.7 74.0 67.8 89.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 21 19 .496 82.4 79.6 32.69810 3.17456 35.87266 2.97551 11.38337 Twins 20 19 .466 77.9 84.1 15.36186 2.12174 17.48360 -1.53131 -2.87775 White Sox 19 20 .508 82.1 79.9 31.06839 3.26954 34.33793 3.87014 -1.57797 Royals 18 21 .458 73.9 88.1 7.46075 1.00873 8.46948 .38916 -0.22830 Tigers 16 24 .492 77.1 84.9 13.41090 1.78025 15.19115 -3.89220 -10.87319Average wins by position in AL west: 91.4 82.6 75.5 66.5 91.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 24 18 .480 81.1 80.9 21.66193 5.03971 26.70163 -2.53522 -5.61710 Athletics 23 18 .539 88.8 73.2 65.20394 3.90793 69.11187 -0.28316 -6.83581 Rangers 20 22 .478 77.5 84.5 11.46577 2.96305 14.42883 -0.37257 5.64908 Mariners 16 26 .440 68.6 93.4 1.66836 .35207 2.02043 .45117 -1.42357 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.8Average wins by position in NL East: 93.8 87.0 81.7 76.0 67.5 93.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Marlins 23 17 .493 82.1 79.9 16.29949 6.52901 22.82850 -3.91665 6.51054 Phillies 22 19 .488 80.4 81.6 12.03964 5.09002 17.12966 -2.10819 -5.78203 Mets 20 18 .523 85.5 76.5 28.14808 9.18253 37.33062 -5.13300 -3.64684 Braves 20 19 .552 88.3 73.7 42.58966 9.32260 51.91226 5.54090 -0.13998 Nationals 17 24 .434 69.7 92.3 .92312 .46537 1.38849 .28311 -0.57458Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.0 88.7 84.0 79.8 75.3 69.1 96.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 24 16 .563 92.7 69.3 57.39716 12.04470 69.44187 1.47175 20.34001 Cardinals 24 18 .519 85.6 76.4 19.27751 14.21025 33.48776 5.32067 -13.50915 Astros 23 18 .489 81.7 80.3 10.04559 8.23842 18.28401 1.06425 5.26552 Brewers 20 20 .482 78.8 83.2 5.12261 5.19614 10.31876 -2.21828 1.91305 Pirates 19 21 .462 74.7 87.3 2.32016 2.24429 4.56445 -1.89293 .41140 Reds 18 23 .506 79.4 82.6 5.83696 5.86910 11.70606 1.23560 2.20517Average wins by position in NL West: 95.5 85.4 78.4 72.2 65.0 95.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 25 15 .559 93.7 68.3 73.84610 6.06577 79.91187 -0.38604 5.02103 Dodgers 20 19 .516 83.9 78.1 18.80603 10.74854 29.55456 1.61188 -14.61606 Giants 17 24 .457 71.6 90.4 1.57005 .87832 2.44837 -0.69399 -0.26918 Rockies 15 25 .497 76.8 85.2 4.70845 3.28798 7.99643 .31208 -3.47709 Padres 15 26 .453 70.4 91.6 1.06938 .62696 1.69633 -0.49116 .34817 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.3
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.