Last update: Tue Oct 20 05:16:00 2009 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesby Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Oct 5 10:45:02 EDT 2009
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.0 95.0 84.0 75.0 64.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 103 59 .616 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 95 67 .555 95.0 67.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .01103 Rays 84 78 .564 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 75 87 .519 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 64 98 .430 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 86.0 79.0 65.0 65.0 86.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 86 76 .483 86.4 76.6 43.33420 .00000 43.33420 -2.70900 -35.35089 Twins 86 76 .509 86.6 76.4 56.66580 .00000 56.66580 2.70900 35.35090 White Sox 79 83 .492 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 65 97 .457 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 65 97 .438 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL west: 97.0 87.0 85.0 75.0 97.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 97 65 .534 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .35163 Rangers 87 75 .525 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.36267 Mariners 85 77 .512 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 75 87 .505 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 95.0Average wins by position in NL East: 93.0 87.0 86.0 70.0 59.0 92.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 93 69 .527 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .16372 Marlins 87 75 .510 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.04612 Braves 86 76 .537 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -17.45313 Mets 70 92 .470 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 59 103 .439 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 74.0 62.0 91.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 91 71 .529 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 83 78 .508 83.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00347 Brewers 80 82 .458 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 78 84 .443 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 74 88 .419 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 62 99 .396 62.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL West: 95.0 92.0 88.0 75.0 70.0 95.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 95 67 .605 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 92 70 .551 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 17.39847 Giants 88 74 .512 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.05947 Padres 75 87 .460 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 70 92 .494 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.