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07-31

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-31

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0

Free Agent Watch: Week 18
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-31

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3

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Trending Prospects and Big Leaguers
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-30

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6

Dynasty Dynamics: Who We're Selling at the Deadline
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-29

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1

Deep Impact: Week 17
by
Ben Carsley

07-29

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14

The Stash List: 15th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

07-28

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0

The Buyer's Guide: Francisco Liriano
by
J.P. Breen

07-28

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: FAAB in Review: Asking the Non-Experts
by
Mike Gianella

07-28

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0

Interleague Report: Week 18
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

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2

Closer to Me: Week 18
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-25

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9

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 18
by
Wilson Karaman

07-24

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All About Failure
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-24

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

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0

Free Agent Watch: Week 17
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-23

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10

Dynasty Dynamics: Players We're Buying at the Deadline
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-23

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14

The Stash List: 14th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

07-23

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relievers
by
J.P. Breen

07-22

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3

My Model Portfolio: Three-and-a-Half Months Later
by
Bret Sayre

07-22

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1

Deep Impact: Week 16
by
Ben Carsley

07-21

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8

The Buyer's Guide: Jason Kipnis
by
J.P. Breen

07-21

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0

Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

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16

Closer to Me: Week 17
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-21

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, Buyers
by
Mike Gianella

07-18

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5

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17
by
Wilson Karaman

07-18

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Chris Davis
by
Craig Goldstein

07-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

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0

Free Agent Watch: Week 16
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-17

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All-Star Week
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-16

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12

Dynasty Dynamics: Top 50 Jumpers
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

07-15

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6

Deep Impact: Week 15
by
Ben Carsley

07-14

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1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

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41

Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects
by
Bret Sayre

07-14

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5

Closer to Me: Week 16
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-14

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Howie Kendrick
by
J.P. Breen

07-11

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Charlie Morton
by
Wilson Karaman

07-11

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: What to Expect From Jimmy Nelson
by
Craig Goldstein

07-10

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1

Free Agent Watch: Week 15
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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5

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Crossover Season Begins
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-09

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget About Me
by
J.P. Breen

07-09

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7

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Two
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-08

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1

Deep Impact: Week 14
by
Ben Carsley

07-07

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1

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Brantley
by
J.P. Breen

07-07

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0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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7

Closer to Me: Week 15
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-07

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers
by
Mike Gianella

07-03

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11

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 15
by
Wilson Karaman

07-03

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Rick Porcello: Buy or Sell?
by
Craig Goldstein

07-03

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2

Free Agent Watch: Week 14
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

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July 31, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought

1

Jeff Quinton

Helpful tips for making the most of your 11th-hour swaps.

Good whatever time of the day you are reading this; more importantly, good almost trading deadline. At this point, you are all familiar with my love of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amost Tversky as well as my love of Kahneman’s very excellent Thinking, Fast and Slow. Up to this point, when my articles have involved their work, they have been regarding the thinking part rather than the fast and slow part. This has not been unintentional because in fantasy baseball we almost always have time to analyze every decision we make; thus, we almost always get to avoid thinking fast or System 1 thinking as Kahneman describes it. One of the exceptions to this particular “almost always” is your league’s trade deadline. In some leagues, there is a flurry of activity right before the deadline and thus a flurry of System 1 thinking.

This very moment seems like a great time to explain System 1 and System 2 thinking. Kahneman calls System 1, “the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach” and System 2 “the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates.” The former is great for making life more enjoyable by lowering the cognitive burden of living in such a complex world. In other words, System 1 is great for quickly and effortlessly making decisions of little consequence. When deciding which parking space you should park in or whether to go with Regular or 100% Colombian at Wawa (#regular4life), System 1 is the perfect system for the job. In fact, using System 2 for these types of decisions would be exhausting. That said, System 1 has many problems for navigating complex problems in that it is affected by biases, finds connections that do not exist, makes counterproductive associations, jumps to conclusions, and chooses the less cognitively difficult path instead of the optimal path. Conversely, System 2 is the better system for making important, difficult decisions. System 2 is not perfect for such instances, but it is the best we have and it is much better at overcoming many of the obstacles presented by System 1. The catch with System 2, however, is that it requires a certain amount of time.

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July 31, 2014 6:00 am

Free Agent Watch: Week 18

0

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

If these players are on your league's waiver wire, they might be worth a look, depending on the format of the league.

12-TEAM MIXED

Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago White Sox
It’s pretty incredible that Eaton is still owned in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues and barely more than that in ESPN formats. Eaton returned from the All-Star Break with a vengeance, and he’s been taking it out on opposing pitchers to the tune of a .413/.471/.478 line with seven runs and two steals (along with five walks and five strikeouts). Sure you’d like to see him hit for a little more power, even if it’s not the over-the-fence variety, but if he keeps getting on base at the top of the White Sox lineup, he’s going to score a lot of runs the rest of the way. Additionally, the power (which there is enough of here to make him a double-digit homer guy over a full season) that hasn’t shown up lately will push him toward being an outfielder who needs to be owned in all leagues in August and September. —Bret Sayre


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July 31, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Trending Prospects and Big Leaguers

3

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The Outcomes present the most frequently added prospects and big leaguers, draft players they expected to be traded, and more.

We are pleased to bring back one of our highest value-added services: regularly scraping the rosters of all the teams in all the Scoresheet leagues. This data allows us to look at all sorts of things related to what percent of players are owned or available in leagues, as well as which players were picked up most often in recent supplemental drafts. Using this data we put together a couple of tables below, but we’d love to hear any suggestions or requests on what you’d like to see us do with the information, so please feel free to send an email or leave a comment.

This first list shows the most-added prospects (yet to hit the bigs) from the most recent supplement draft.

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July 30, 2014 6:00 am

Dynasty Dynamics: Who We're Selling at the Deadline

6

Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

If one of your league-mates wants to buy high on any of these players, Ben and Craig would advice you to let him go.

Last week we brought you six players we’re buying in a dynasty format, so naturally, we thought it prudent to bring you another six-pack of players, this time focusing on who we’re selling, using the same long-term perspective.

Ben: Brock Holt, Everything, BOS
Brock Holt is a pretty decent baseball player. He can play both corner infield spots, both corner outfield spots and second base, and he can fake it in center or at short for a few games. He’s fast enough to be an occasional threat on the bases, he has a patient approach at the plate and he has the bat speed necessary to barrel up good velocity. There are lots of nice things you can say about Brock Holt (o/), and I think he’ll be a unique, valuable major leaguer for a long time.


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July 29, 2014 10:48 am

Deep Impact: Week 17

1

Ben Carsley

Breaking down a handful of players who might pique your interest in deep leagues.

I’m too sad thinking about Jon Lester to write a real intro.

Chris Capuano, LHP, Yankees
Capuano seems to have more lives than a cat, which, proverbially speaking, has nine lives. He was brilliant as a reliever with the Red Sox in the early days of 2014, but was then decidedly less brilliant as the season went on, leading to his release in June. Capuano then signed a minor league deal with the Rockies and was acquired by the Yankees late last week. Yes, Capuano has called Fenway Park and Yankees Stadium home this season, and could potentially have called Coors Field home, too. Capuano does not give a damn about your fantasy league.


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July 29, 2014 6:00 am

The Stash List: 15th Edition

14

Bret Sayre

The latest on Mookie Betts, Javier Baez, Noah Syndergaard, and other players who should be on your fantasy radar in case they earn promotions.

The Graduates: Neftali Feliz (22)
This past week saw the sad-sack Rangers finally deal off their closer (who had been one of the best in baseball to this point) Joakim Soria to the Tigers, freeing their former star closer to retake the role. Unfortunately, Feliz still doesn’t have his pre-Tommy John velocity back and it’s manifesting itself in diminished strikeout numbers (he has four in 11 1/3 innings). He can keep the job without the whiffs, as they don’t really have a great alternative, but his value will be diminished if it doesn’t pick up a little.

The Departed: Joey Gallo (HM)
As much fun as this would be, there’s just zero incentive for the Rangers to rush Gallo when he hasn’t even gotten a half-season’s worth of at-bats at Double-A.



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July 28, 2014 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Francisco Liriano

0

J.P. Breen

The Pirates lefty has fared well in July, but is that reason to believe that the tide has turned on his 2014 season?

It’s no secret that Francisco Liriano remains one of the more electric arms in baseball. He still has a lively fastball, as well as a devastating slider-changeup combination that can induce a myriad of swings-and-misses. When he throws strikes consistently and stays healthy, he can be dominant. Last year, he missed a few starts and only threw 161 innings, but he decimated the NL Central with a 3.02 ERA (2.92 FIP) and struck out more than a batter per inning. Ultimately, he was a top-30 starter and a wonderful surprise in all formats.

Fantasy owners remained skittish when drafting Liriano this spring. His average draft position didn’t reflect his 2013 performance, as owners worried about his health and whether he had truly discovered something that would lead to consistent, reliable performance on the mound.

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July 28, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: FAAB in Review: Asking the Non-Experts

5

Mike Gianella

Mike digs into some league-mates' strategies when bidding on NL-only imports Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

Every decision influences the next set of decisions that we make. Like a pebble in a pond, what we do today has a definitive impact on what we do tomorrow.

In fantasy baseball, this is true in every facet of the game. The auction or draft we have impacts what kind of trades or free agent moves we make during the season. The trades we make impact whether or not we make additional trades. The free agent pickups we make impact future free agent pickups and future trades. This series of actions and subsequent actions goes on until the season is over. In keeper leagues it goes on until you leave the league or the mortal coil.

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July 28, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 18

0

Jeff Quinton

Looking at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at bats.

Last Week

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July 28, 2014 6:00 am

Closer to Me: Week 18

2

Mauricio Rubio

Keeping tabs on the ninth-inning situations around the league.

Chicago White Sox
Jake Petricka notched back-to-back saves on July 21 and 24 in place of the injured Zach Putnam. He’s said to be getting more save opportunities than not for the White Sox and he’s been dependable all season with a few minor hiccups. Contrast that with Ronald Belisario, who has continued to be a mess in his outings, and I think there’s a clear path to saves for Petricka in the short term. Matt Lindstrom is looming, but he isn’t so compelling that he will immediately take the job from Petricka upon his arrival. My advice: Hold on to Petricka in the short term and wait for health to clear itself up regarding Lindstrom.

Chicago Cubs
There are a few rumors flying around Neil Ramirez and his demotion to Triple-A Iowa. Let’s clear a few things up. I don’t think the demotion was made with converting him into a starter in mind. Ramirez has worked well with a simplified repertoire and he is finally in a groove. There were some arm concerns earlier in the year so for me this seems like a move that was made to rest the pitcher more than anything. The Cubs have an odd roster crunch that includes a revolving door for the fifth starter job. There’s going to be a shuttle between Chicago and Iowa until the roster issues are cleared up. I think Ramirez is a reliever in the short and long term as I think it’s unlikely they waste the development time and risk the possibility of ruining him to try and squeeze starter upside out of him. In the meantime, Hector Rondon is still your guy in this ‘pen.



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July 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 18

9

Wilson Karaman

Helping you set your fantasy rotation for the next week with a look at the two-start pitchers.

Welcome to the Weekly Pitching Planner! This is a hectic time of the season, as the trade deadline for both real and many fantasy baseball approaches. The NL will be on tap to showcase the greatest amount of two-start talent this week, as the schedule gods conspire to give NL-only owners 24 options to just 17 for the AL. As of press time the Mariners have not announced a starter for their Tuesday-Sunday slot, but my money would be on Hisashi Iwakuma taking the ball in Cleveland and Baltimore. If that’s the case, I like him as a start despite the less-than-ideal draws. Obviously with the deadline looming there are also likely to be some teams left in flux if and when deals are made, so this week will be an important one in which to keep up on the latest news before setting your lineup.

On to the nuts and bolts: Outside of the elites, two-start pitchers are often as much or more trouble than they’re worth. Rare is the week in which the stars align to offer your starters not just one but two consecutive tasty matchups. As a result you’ll notice that sometimes the better starters will find themselves in the “consider” category, because they might have one good matchup but a second tough one. And similarly, less-talented hurlers might just meander their way into “start” territory on account of a plum schedule. The pitchers will be split by league, and then by categories:

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July 24, 2014 10:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All About Failure

0

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

From the Astros draft saga to the Scoresheet mistakes, the Outcomes devote this week's podcast to what's gone wrong.

This week on the podcast, we tackled topics concerning failure. We did our part to run in circles around the Astros draft saga and also answered some reader questions. We also spent some time considering and discussing our collective failures as Scoresheet owners in 2014. One of the things we’d like to do is setup a framework for analyzing teams that underperform, in order to identify potential improvements, patterns of mistakes, or other ways that we could have done better on draft day.

The first step is to gather information and data, including the draft day valuations, the real life MLB performance of players to date, and the Scoresheet performance of players to date. The Baseball Prospectus Team Tracker is a helpful tool to get this information, and the remainder can be found on the Scoresheet league pages. Be careful when analyzing team-level results, especially if you’ve made personnel changes (i.e. traded away short term value), because they may not be indicative of mistakes you made on draft day, but the aftermath of going Full Rebuild (tm?).

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