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Prospectus Hit List for May 9



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 7 Hit List for May 12
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Hittin' in the front seat Listin' in the back seat Gotta make my mind up Which List can I Hit?

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

20

10

18.5

19.2

18.4

.593

.612

84.1%

7.2%

91.3%

0.4%

12.2%

A quick note to Brad Ausmus, if you’re going to bat your two Martinezes consecutively, could you please do a better job alphabetizing them?
2

19

17

18.8

18.5

18.2

.560

.540

52.0%

32.7%

84.8%

-1.3%

-2.7%

Do you think Josh Beckett worked hard for a year to come back from injury just so he could eat a bucket of chicken in the winner’s locker room when the media came calling?
3

22

13

20.4

19.4

19.1

.559

.539

37.5%

38.2%

75.7%

2.0%

8.2%

Three odd and related facts about last night's Giants game: 1. Michael Morse hit clean-up. 2. The clean-up hitter was replaced in the lineup. 3. The replacement knocked in the game-winning run.
4

19

15

18.6

19.2

19.4

.557

.538

60.9%

14.0%

74.9%

-1.6%

2.5%

After Jadeveon Clowney was picked first in the NFL draft, Bryce Harper tweeted “That’s a clowney pick, bro” which makes him now officially the greatest ever.
5

20

15

22.3

22.8

21.7

.569

.588

37.8%

21.0%

58.8%

1.7%

-9.0%

The A’s have the fewest sacrifice bunts in baseball (3, tied with Boston) and Nick Punto has exactly zero of them.
6

18

17

19.7

19.3

19.1

.538

.519

40.9%

11.3%

52.2%

-3.2%

-1.1%

My leadoff hitter is a Carpenter.
7

16

17

18.8

19.3

18.9

.545

.565

28.8%

23.4%

52.2%

2.6%

-8.4%

Mike Trout has as many triples as three major-league teams.
8

22

13

19.0

18.7

18.0

.521

.501

38.3%

13.3%

51.5%

-3.7%

-11.9%

Jean Segura has been caught stealing five times in 11 tries. Maybe all Ryan Braun was doing was trying to gently slow him down.
9

17

17

16.6

18.0

17.9

.527

.547

29.4%

21.5%

50.9%

0.1%

11.3%

The Red Sox are at .500 for the first time since April 4th. Activate duck boats!
10

18

15

15.3

16.0

15.8

.510

.530

31.3%

19.5%

50.8%

-1.9%

-3.1%

Derek Jeter was given a surf board by the Angels, but this wasn’t a going-away present so much as a way to help Jeter move to his left.
11

18

15

16.9

19.5

19.5

.533

.513

24.0%

22.3%

46.3%

5.0%

-8.7%

While Dan Uggla has been worth -0.2 WARP this season, a more Uggla-relevant stat called WAP (Wins Above Potato) has him at 3.6. Hopefully his agent is paying attention!
12

22

15

23.2

23.3

21.9

.549

.529

9.5%

29.7%

39.2%

3.8%

16.7%

Nolan Arenado’s hit streak grows to 28 games but the Rockies' streak of scoring at least eight runs ends at three games.
13

18

16

17.7

15.5

15.7

.497

.517

19.6%

17.1%

36.7%

1.6%

11.9%

Both pitchers Seattle used in last night’s game, Hisashi Iwakuma and Fernando Rodney, finished the evening with identical 2.45 ERAs. Get your lottery on, Seattle!
14

18

17

19.5

19.2

18.1

.521

.541

15.4%

14.4%

29.8%

3.8%

6.9%

Second behind Colorado in homers, imagine how many the Jays would hit if their field were a mile high and the ghost of Dante Bichette helped blow each fly ball they hit over the wall?
15

15

20

16.2

17.9

17.9

.510

.530

14.3%

14.6%

28.9%

-7.6%

-14.0%

David Price has given up nine homers but only six walks. I think his priorities are backward.
16

18

17

14.6

14.4

15.0

.471

.491

13.8%

13.6%

27.5%

-0.5%

-6.6%

There’s a new board game out called Prince Fielder’s Career. It’s exactly like Chutes ‘n Ladders except without the ladders.
17

15

18

18.3

18.7

18.5

.519

.499

14.6%

8.9%

23.5%

1.5%

1.0%

On Tuesday the Reds lost to the Red Sox in Boston in the 12th inning. Somewhere Johnny Bench laughed and said, ‘totally worth it.’
18

18

14

15.9

13.4

13.6

.474

.494

9.6%

13.0%

22.7%

-0.7%

6.2%

Nothing Adam Jones likes more than the first pitch. On the field, he hits 20 percent of ‘em, and at home he’s got a kitchen full of EggWaves. (He buys them each time he sees the infomercial! Stay with me here!)
19

20

15

20.9

21.8

21.9

.526

.506

7.8%

10.7%

18.5%

5.7%

12.7%

One day one of Giancarlo Stanton’s homers will exit the Earth’s atmosphere and ram into another one of Giancarlo Stanton’s homers as it’s reentering.
20

16

18

16.4

15.4

15.1

.475

.495

5.2%

11.1%

16.3%

-0.7%

-7.6%

They barbeque everything in Kansas City, even Mike Moustakas’s slugging percentage.
21

16

19

16.3

17.1

17.2

.482

.502

5.0%

10.1%

15.1%

3.4%

3.2%

Indians first baseman’s slash line (.202/.291/.318) + Cleveland-related snark = Johnny Manziel joke!
22

18

18

18.0

17.4

17.8

.477

.497

4.1%

9.5%

13.6%

-1.6%

-0.1%

Adam Dunn is tied for 39th in strikeouts. Next he’ll show up naked in high school on test day without having studied.
23

15

18

13.2

12.6

13.4

.446

.426

4.7%

5.3%

10.0%

-4.9%

-5.8%

Now, what can I make fun of the Phillies for /brain short circuits
24

14

20

15.5

14.8

15.5

.466

.446

5.1%

3.7%

8.9%

-0.2%

1.3%

Gerrit Cole’s rank among pitchers may be debatable, but he’s undoubtedly the best kind of coal there is.
25

16

17

15.7

13.0

13.9

.450

.430

2.6%

4.2%

6.8%

-1.3%

-7.4%

The Mets are three games out of first place and starting a shortstop who is hitting .183/.302/.207. So the first question comes from a “S. Boras” who would like to inquire “what the…” well I can’t read that.
26

15

18

16.0

15.2

15.3

.458

.478

1.7%

3.8%

5.5%

-0.4%

-2.7%

A punch line to “The Twins are seventh in runs” might be “something you might have accomplished after that rough bout of stomach flu swept through your high school.”
27

15

21

12.8

11.9

13.1

.422

.402

0.7%

2.5%

3.2%

-2.9%

-6.5%

You may find it hard to believe the Padres scored just one run in 11 innings, but that’s only because you don’t pay any attention to the Padres because they frequently do stuff like score just one run in 11 innings.
28

13

24

12.3

15.1

15.4

.427

.408

0.2%

2.2%

2.5%

0.4%

1.5%

Wade Miley leads baseball in wild pitches. In college he was famous for his piled witches but they don’t have those in the majors so
29

12

21

15.4

15.1

14.8

.443

.424

1.1%

0.9%

2.0%

0.7%

-0.0%

That’s the Cubs for ya. One day they score 15 runs, then another day many years later, they score 15 runs again. How about a little consistency, eh?
30

11

24

11.1

11.6

12.4

.375

.393

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Astros are 1-0 when facing a team on an eight-game win streak. /does Dikembe Mutombo finger wag

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
Marcgiz

How long until AHLF catches up with the reality that the Angels are still a mediocre team spending too much money?

May 09, 2014 08:22 AM
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Oblarg

How about the utterly ridiculous placement of the Rays?

The adjustment they put in for the PECOTA projections are absurd.

May 09, 2014 12:26 PM
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oldbopper

It is not a mere coincidence that The A's and the Red Sox have the fewest sacrifices. These are the 2 teams that best understand the futility of giving away outs nor is it a coincidence that they 2 of last years AL Division winners.

May 09, 2014 10:25 AM
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+2

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