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Prospectus Hit List for September 11



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 10 Hit List for September 12
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

This is what happens when you Hit a stranger in the List.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

88

58

89.5

89.2

88.6

.608

.627

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.7%

Back from the disabled list, Clay Buchholz improved to 10-0. Now they need to convert him to a reliever so he can vulture 10 more wins and steal the Cy Young from Max Scherzer.
2

87

57

87.4

86.0

82.6

.595

.576

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Craig Kimbrel has a career-worst 13.2 K/9, which is just downright awful. Twenty push-ups.
3

85

59

81.0

84.3

82.3

.577

.558

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mad with power, Vin Scully starts crank calling random numbers and telling them interesting facts about them that they didn't know.
4

84

60

87.9

82.2

82.0

.583

.564

64.0%

36.0%

99.9%

0.0%

0.4%

We should devise a true "ERA vs. lefties" stat just for Kevin Siegrist. Simply make up a number and keep it low. Nobody will question it.
5

83

61

81.6

80.9

79.1

.564

.583

67.6%

31.3%

98.9%

0.1%

3.3%

Time to start a pool for when Eric Sogard gets laser eye surgery. There will be a kicker for correctly predicting if he still wears glasses just for show.
6

83

61

76.9

79.5

80.7

.556

.536

25.0%

74.8%

99.8%

0.1%

-0.2%

Mark Melancon allowed multiple runs for the first time since August 31, 2012, when he was a beloved Red Sox reliever. (Beloved by someone, probably.)
7

83

62

89.4

96.0

95.5

.627

.646

99.2%

0.5%

99.7%

0.5%

-0.2%

Jhonny Peralta is back working out with the team. Probably for the best — he ran out of Candy Crush tickets.
8

82

64

83.6

85.3

85.7

.576

.557

11.0%

87.6%

98.6%

-0.5%

-0.1%

Congratulations on producing as many runs as the opposing pitcher! There is no award for this. Only shame.
9

81

63

80.1

79.6

78.6

.554

.574

32.4%

58.8%

91.1%

0.0%

-5.8%

We don't talk enough about their infield: Ian Kinsler, Jeff Baker, and Elvis Candlestickmaker.
10

78

65

75.5

83.7

84.2

.562

.581

0.1%

63.4%

63.5%

-1.8%

-11.2%

David Price had two wild pitches in the same at bat, which would have been more until he realized he was accidentally throwing a chinchilla.
11

77

67

76.7

74.4

75.5

.527

.547

0.1%

11.5%

11.5%

-1.1%

1.8%

Years from now, futuristic robot scientists will be unable to explain how Chris Davis and Brady Anderson are atop the Orioles single-season home run leaders, or what any of those things are.
12

77

68

72.3

65.3

66.9

.485

.505

0.0%

8.2%

8.2%

3.5%

-2.3%

Alfonso Soriano has seven multi-homer games this year. Nobody else has more than four. Miggy and Chris Davis each have three.
13

77

67

75.9

73.9

75.5

.525

.545

0.7%

23.2%

23.9%

-3.4%

11.8%

Idea: Take out half the seats and replace the existing ones with massage chairs and foot baths. You'll sell out every game at 20,000 a night.
14

76

69

76.5

70.0

71.0

.506

.526

0.1%

3.1%

3.1%

2.2%

2.0%

Luke Hochevar has struck out 29 of the last 66 batters he has faced. 11 of them have reached base.
15

75

69

72.0

73.9

72.5

.509

.489

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

0.4%

0.2%

Technically by the last 10 games, they're are the hottest team in the National League. But we're going by outside average temperature, so thanks anyway.
16

72

72

71.0

69.0

68.9

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Their playoff hopes are dwindling, but it's almost that time where they can start calling their northern friends and brag about the fair temperatures.
17

68

76

70.9

72.6

71.8

.492

.512

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Even though Mike Trout DHed last night, he still robbed the other team of a home run using magnets and telekinesis.
18

67

79

70.8

70.0

66.9

.470

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Here's an easy way to tell Todd Helton apart from Paul Konerko. Helton is "the other one."
19

67

77

67.7

64.6

66.6

.462

.482

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

An example of a headline that could get you fired at a newspaper when Anthony Gose hits a home run, as he did last night, is "Anthony Gose Yard." So please do not use this.
20

66

78

58.6

58.8

60.8

.424

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Zach Miner struck out the side in an inning of relief, provided you ignore those other three hits he allowed. You can still call it that, right?
21

66

77

61.9

62.5

62.7

.443

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Eight runs? That's an offensive explosion! Pieces of bats everywhere. Alarms sounding into the frozen night. Children just bawling into their mothers arms, "why, mommy? Why did they score more than four?"
22

65

80

60.4

64.5

63.7

.437

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They dealt away Brendan Ryan to the Yankees for a player to be named later. It's pretty obvious this is Alex Rodriguez, because if he wins his suspension appeal, then he's clear to play next year.
23

65

80

64.0

68.9

69.5

.461

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yet ANOTHER game in which Yusmeiro Petit didn't throw a perfect game. He didn't even pitch. He's slipping.
24

64

79

65.3

63.7

63.4

.448

.429

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt den Dekker and Travis d'Arnaud batted back-to-back, which has to be the first time two people whose names began with lowercase d's appeared in consecutive order since E.E. Cummings was a manager.
25

63

80

61.5

65.0

64.8

.445

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

All this sadness and yet: having finally played, and beat, Oakland this year, they hold a winning record against every AL West team.
26

62

81

64.5

67.3

69.0

.459

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No doubt the 4-2 loss to the Cardinals was disappointing. They didn't even get to face John Axford.
27

62

82

67.1

69.6

69.4

.465

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

What was Edwin Jackson thinking during his home run trot? Probably, "Man, this is fun. No wonder everybody does this against me!" But I kid! Only most people hit home runs off Edwin Jackson.
28

58

86

61.8

61.0

60.8

.419

.439

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Conor Gillaspie may have had three errors in the box score, but his only error that mattered was failing to love himself.
29

53

90

57.4

52.9

53.8

.379

.361

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's been a while since Sunday school, but I'm pretty sure the Christian Yelich falls on the third Thursday of October.
30

49

96

53.4

47.5

49.9

.344

.363

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

See, Jonathan Villar, aren't home runs more fun than stolen ba— oh, you also stole two bases. Carry on.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
DetroitDale

re: the Dodgers comment:

In other Vin Scully news, the local NBC affiliate aired one hour of Vin Scully reading names out of the phone book and the ratings were higher than half of NBC's primetime lineup.

Sep 11, 2013 09:02 AM
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