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Prospectus Hit List for May 7



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for May 6 Hit List for May 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Jon Garland's first appearance on a Hit List in quite some time!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

13

18

11.7

14.4

14.4

.497

.477

23.1%

17.9%

41.0%

-6.8%

-19.6%

TV pitch: a hospital drama where all the Dodgers players are patients, but it focuses on the doctors' love lives.
2

19

13

16.6

16.1

16.2

.523

.503

34.4%

16.0%

50.4%

-5.5%

10.4%

You still can't disprove the theory that Pablo Sandoval is two Cirque du Soleil acrobats stuffed into one jersey.
3

17

11

15.9

14.3

14.7

.516

.536

7.7%

21.7%

29.4%

-2.4%

9.2%

George Kottaras' season numbers: .222/.462/.667, 13 plate appearances. He's been with the team since Opening Day.
4

18

15

19.2

18.8

17.9

.558

.539

47.1%

25.3%

72.4%

-2.3%

-1.0%

A Voltron made of Shin-Soo Choo's HBPs and Joey Votto's walks. An unstoppable on-base machine whose only vulnerability is strikes.
5

20

12

19.7

20.5

19.6

.589

.608

73.2%

9.0%

82.2%

-2.3%

4.4%

Making up a game with the Cubs seemed like such a good idea at the time.
6

14

17

15.5

15.3

16.5

.513

.533

7.8%

16.8%

24.6%

-1.9%

-13.1%

It took only 55 fewer appearances but Fernando Rodney already matched 2012's earned run total.
7

14

16

13.7

14.3

14.6

.472

.452

2.8%

6.5%

9.3%

-1.8%

-7.9%

Carlos Gomez leads the league in WAR, but it's a small sample size so he actually leads the league in BATTLE.
8

18

15

18.1

17.6

16.9

.522

.542

15.8%

19.8%

35.6%

-1.3%

-1.3%

If he keeps this up, Yoenis Cespedes could give his native Cuba a reputation for producing baseball players.
9

17

15

14.6

14.9

15.2

.509

.489

37.2%

18.4%

55.6%

-0.8%

4.7%

To differentiate himself from Ryan, Jordan Zimmermann may want to change his name to Jordan Agoodpitcher.
10

18

12

16.1

15.4

15.1

.550

.570

44.2%

27.6%

71.8%

-0.4%

-2.0%

Alex Rodriguez's injury rehab will consist of gradually larger minor league crowds booing him whatever he does.
11

13

15

13.2

12.9

13.8

.437

.456

0.2%

0.7%

0.9%

-0.3%

-0.5%

Extra-inning losses on the road are worse than ninth-inning losses, because you're sad AND all the good restaurants are closed.
12

13

17

13.3

12.9

13.1

.452

.472

1.3%

5.1%

6.4%

-0.2%

-1.5%

Jordan Danks went from being picked-off as a pinch-runner (and game-winning run) to hitting the go-ahead home run in extra innings. Overcompensating, much?
13

10

23

11.3

10.5

10.5

.369

.351

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.0%

-0.2%

One bright spot of note on this team is their logo, by definition.
14

18

13

18.2

20.3

19.9

.539

.519

12.6%

12.1%

24.7%

-0.0%

8.3%

Jon Garland leads the team in innings pitched and has fewer total strikeouts than two teammates who are relievers. This team is beautiful.
15

19

13

18.7

17.9

17.6

.520

.540

6.8%

16.1%

22.9%

-0.0%

8.1%

Their 107-game winning streak with a lead after seven innings deserves an investigation into how many times they ended the game after seven innings and nobody noticed.
16

8

24

9.1

8.5

9.9

.333

.351

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

So much for the Rick Ankiel, designated for assignment. Now they're going back to the plan of "replacement-level players the fans HAVEN'T heard of."
17

15

18

13.6

15.6

15.6

.465

.485

3.3%

4.5%

7.8%

0.0%

-0.7%

They have eight stolen bases as a team, which is fewer than Nate McLouth has as an individual.
18

12

21

11.8

11.2

12.3

.434

.453

1.0%

3.0%

4.1%

0.3%

-2.7%

So with yesterday's win, are they championship contenders again? I can't keep this season straight.
19

19

11

20.2

21.7

20.9

.629

.647

82.3%

9.6%

91.9%

0.6%

3.5%

At long last, Al Alburquerque studied a map of New Mexico and finally understood the humor.
20

15

18

13.2

13.2

13.2

.453

.433

6.4%

6.2%

12.7%

0.6%

-8.7%

If the season ended today, that wouldn't be the worst thing for them.
21

12

20

14.2

16.6

16.5

.474

.454

2.0%

4.2%

6.1%

1.0%

-3.9%

As long as recently-promoted Ryan Sweeney doesn't punch any doors, he should be fine. Or the Cubs could install cardboard doors.
22

12

16

13.9

13.0

12.8

.477

.457

7.2%

6.6%

13.8%

1.2%

0.7%

A day off in New York City. Wonder if there's anything to do there.
23

14

18

13.7

13.1

13.8

.447

.427

2.8%

2.7%

5.5%

1.5%

2.4%

The best place to watch a game at Petco Park is inside Andrew Cashner's beard.
24

21

11

20.0

20.0

19.8

.583

.602

40.2%

32.2%

72.4%

1.6%

1.3%

Dustin Pedroia hitting a home run over the giant Fenway Park wall is an affront to most modern physics theories.
25

17

14

15.4

14.6

15.0

.499

.479

11.6%

18.1%

29.7%

2.5%

-3.5%

A.J. Burnett is second in the majors in total strikeouts yet is still 15 behind Yu Darvish.
26

17

15

18.4

17.1

17.5

.535

.515

27.1%

19.2%

46.3%

2.5%

-9.2%

How many chores did you get done during Travor Cahill's triple?
27

11

20

12.3

12.9

13.1

.472

.492

7.8%

14.3%

22.1%

2.7%

-11.9%

They are already 7 games behind the second Wild Card, more than at any point last season. Better now than July.
28

19

12

19.3

19.9

19.8

.571

.551

49.1%

20.4%

69.5%

3.4%

3.2%

Cory Gearrin has made 17 appearances with no runs allowed and one appearance that look he just doesn't want to talk about, okay?
29

15

14

16.9

17.9

17.2

.539

.559

8.5%

19.5%

28.1%

3.5%

7.2%

Show us on the baseball where Mark Reynolds hurt you.
30

20

11

20.0

16.4

16.0

.547

.528

36.5%

26.4%

62.9%

4.6%

24.3%

Adam Wainwright has walked three batters all year, while Lance Lynn has walked three batters in four different games, and is 5-0.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
rweiler

Granted that in the era of Photoshop a picture isn't as convincing evidence as it used to be, but sfgate ran a picture of a shirtless Sandoval on an exercise bike proving that it is indeed all him under that uniform. I still have mental scars from that photo.

May 07, 2013 09:23 AM
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sgturner65

I'm still curious about how your AHLF works. The comments from Monday have disappeared so I'll ask again.

The NL is now 19-17 this year in Interleague games yet is still being penalized roughly .020 points per team in your standings. The AL is being handed those same points for a .040 switch.

If this is based on historical data, have you taken into account that the worst team in baseball switched from the NL to the AL this year? The Astros have won 23 less games than the next worse team since the beginning of the 2011 season. They have yet to play an NL opponent this season.

May 08, 2013 08:42 AM
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