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Prospectus Hit List for April 30



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for April 29 Hit List for May 1
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In honor of Oakland's 19-inning victory, here are 19 team comments. Plus nine more in honor of Detroit's nine-inning victory, and two more in honor of our big victory in WWII.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

12

13

9.7

12.1

12.0

.513

.493

38.1%

22.6%

60.6%

-7.1%

-4.7%

Please don't break Matt Kemp. The factory which made him has since gone out of business and now produces bedazzlers.
2

15

11

13.5

12.9

13.3

.509

.489

14.9%

18.3%

33.1%

-5.0%

12.0%

Since 2007 they are 7-45 in Miller Park. This curse has Randall Simon's sausagey prints all over it.
3

15

10

13.2

12.6

12.4

.549

.569

44.3%

29.5%

73.8%

-4.1%

5.8%

All told, Derek Jeter is putting up some of the best defensive metrics of his career.
4

14

11

15.0

11.8

11.9

.517

.497

20.0%

18.6%

38.6%

-4.0%

0.9%

You're in a real strange place when Yadier Molina is tied for the team lead in stolen bases. This place: Anti-Gravity Land.
5

13

10

12.4

10.8

11.1

.494

.514

7.4%

12.8%

20.2%

-3.7%

-1.6%

All that impressive hitting and yet they're the only American League team without a home run from the cleanup spot.
6

9

16

10.1

10.6

10.8

.478

.498

14.2%

19.8%

34.0%

-3.1%

-11.2%

Any minute now, that Mark Trumbo home run is going through your window. Hope it's not raining where you live.
7

10

14

12.2

11.7

11.6

.484

.464

6.5%

6.7%

13.1%

-3.0%

-10.1%

Any Mets fan will tell you the most dangerous lead in baseball is 3-2 in the 15th inning.
8

13

13

11.6

12.0

11.8

.503

.483

34.2%

16.7%

50.9%

-2.0%

-3.1%

Another arm injury? Man, Washington really should've limited Stephen Strasburg's innings down the stretch last year.
9

15

11

15.1

14.4

14.7

.517

.537

3.7%

11.1%

14.7%

-1.6%

2.4%

Matt Wieters now has three home runs in Safeco Field (71 AB) but none in Fenway Park (119 AB). There will be a quiz later on this.
10

15

11

14.9

14.0

14.5

.544

.524

31.5%

24.0%

55.5%

-1.2%

10.6%

Every player gets that one weird year with the Diamondbacks. This year it's Eric Chavez's turn.
11

9

16

9.4

9.2

10.1

.425

.405

1.2%

1.9%

3.1%

-1.2%

0.2%

A bright spot in their bullpen is Dale Thayer, who is actually a time traveler from the 1960s and you can't disprove this.
12

10

14

10.5

10.3

10.0

.449

.469

2.7%

5.2%

7.9%

-0.3%

-0.3%

What does Adam Dunn swing at on off days? Everything and nothing.
13

11

11

10.8

10.8

11.0

.447

.467

0.6%

0.8%

1.4%

-0.3%

-0.1%

Josh Willingham owns the politest power in the majors right now.
14

16

9

15.8

16.1

15.4

.591

.610

64.9%

12.9%

77.8%

-0.1%

0.6%

The entire starting rotation is under 30 years old, assuming Alexi Ogando counts despite his 63-year-old face.
15

8

18

9.0

8.4

9.4

.360

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.1%

Lucas Harrell had 11 groundouts to zero fly outs in his Yankee Stadium debut, which puts him on track to be a 20-game winner for the Yankees by 2015.
16

18

7

16.7

16.5

16.4

.601

.620

37.2%

33.9%

71.1%

0.0%

6.9%

Ryan Lavarnway was called up for three days, didn't get into a game, and was called back down. As cups of coffee are concerned, that's basically standing in line at Starbucks then having it close.
17

7

19

7.7

6.9

7.3

.352

.334

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.1%

Give them credit: they made Matt Harvey work deep into counts. What?
18

9

17

9.3

8.7

9.1

.431

.451

1.6%

5.2%

6.8%

0.2%

-5.8%

Adam Lind, he of an on-base over .400, is the only qualified Blue Jay with an OBP over .320. That's probably not good.
19

12

14

11.9

12.1

12.3

.482

.462

11.6%

9.7%

21.3%

1.1%

2.1%

They have one position player on their roster between 26 and 31 years old. John Mayberry has nobody to hang out with his age and discuss popular music from his generation.
20

12

13

13.2

14.0

14.7

.537

.557

13.3%

24.4%

37.7%

1.4%

2.3%

Heed this advice, David Price: you may want robot umpires, but when they malfunction they start calling everybody liars and dividers by zero.
21

12

16

10.8

12.9

13.2

.459

.479

3.5%

5.0%

8.5%

1.4%

1.4%

In a night when weird things were abound in baseball, Joe Saunders' complete game probably didn't make the top 10.
22

10

15

10.9

12.5

12.4

.470

.450

4.0%

6.0%

10.0%

2.3%

3.9%

If we've yet to salt the earth of meaning to pitcher wins, Carlos Marmol, tied for the team lead in them, also has the Cubs' second-highest WHIP.
23

13

11

12.1

12.0

12.1

.492

.472

6.5%

10.8%

17.3%

2.5%

2.7%

Yovani Gallardo has two home runs; their cleanup hitters have zero.
24

14

10

14.3

15.8

15.4

.596

.615

80.6%

7.8%

88.4%

2.6%

7.0%

Prince Fielder walking up to Mozart proves we still have taste as a society, if not appreciation for defense.
25

10

13

11.4

12.3

11.8

.497

.517

8.8%

12.0%

20.8%

3.0%

-3.3%

That awkward moment when Ryan Raburn and Ubaldo Jimenez act like your franchise players.
26

16

9

15.3

15.1

14.9

.563

.543

47.6%

18.7%

66.3%

4.0%

-0.1%

Andrelton Simmons throwing out a runner from a seated position is a promising sign that #honkbal is alive in all of us.
27

14

12

13.3

13.4

13.5

.522

.502

21.9%

18.1%

40.0%

4.1%

-13.3%

Sometimes it's tricky to find Brandon Belt in the lineup, but it's not so hard when you pick out his trademark glasses and red-and-white-striped sweater and hat.
28

16

10

15.9

17.4

16.9

.538

.518

7.4%

9.1%

16.4%

4.6%

0.6%

Everybody aboard the Rockies bandwagon! Oh dear, mountains ... we need some people to disembark.
29

15

12

15.1

14.7

14.2

.528

.548

17.4%

19.4%

36.8%

4.6%

-3.9%

"Moneyball" would've been a less believable movie with Yoenis Cespedes, but we all love a good superhero flick.
30

15

12

16.2

16.0

15.0

.566

.546

54.7%

18.8%

73.5%

4.9%

-1.8%

Mat Latos has gone 17 innings without allowing a run, dating back to that time the Marlins scored off him. Because baseball.

Matt Sussman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
sandyk

I should know better than to be drinking anything when I read the Hit List--the very first comment (Red Sox) almost had liquid coming out of my nose!

I see that we are not quite through April, and the Astros are down to a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Apr 30, 2013 12:18 PM
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