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Prospectus Hit List for October 2



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for October 1 Hit List for October 3
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

With a funny line about Jason Bay!

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

96

64

94.5

95.4

94.1

.594

.574

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals are in the playoffs. It's the first time a baseball team from Washington has been in the playoffs since 1933. Know who was president in 1933? Ha! Trick question. Presidents hadn't been invented yet.
2

96

64

89.2

86.8

84.1

.556

.536

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The only remaining question for the Reds is will Miguel Cairo get enough credit.
3

93

67

92.7

93.7

94.3

.584

.603

87.2%

12.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

It will be interesting to see how the Yankees, who have blown a 10-game lead, react if they win the AL East. My guess is they take a nap. Because they're old.
4

93

67

87.8

85.7

84.3

.548

.528

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Your leader in triples? Angel Pagan! With 15, he's got a triple triple lead over Starlin Castro.
5

93

67

91.2

90.3

90.2

.570

.550

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing to the Pirates means the Braves will have to settle for the coin-flip game. I hope the Braves have been keeping up on their thumb exercises.
6

93

67

91.1

95.5

94.7

.585

.604

74.4%

25.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Ron Washington can coax a win out of Texas in one of the last two games the Rangers will be division champs. Of course we all know Division champs is fine but nothing compared to losing in the World Series.
7

92

68

81.0

78.5

79.9

.518

.538

12.8%

87.2%

100.0%

0.0%

8.6%

The Orioles loss with the Yankees win means Baltimore is a game back of New York with just two games to play. In other words, exactly where they want 'em.
8

92

68

90.0

85.7

87.2

.555

.574

25.6%

74.4%

100.0%

2.0%

25.6%

Before the season the concept of Oakland winning the division was like a Dane Cook joke: not funny and not worth your time. Now win their final two games and it's theirs.
9

89

71

93.4

94.3

95.6

.582

.601

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.4%

-11.0%

Winning wasn't enough as Oakland's win sealed Tampa's fate. But making it as far as they did on the 26th largest payroll in baseball is quite an accomplishment.
10

89

71

88.8

91.0

92.8

.565

.585

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.5%

-23.1%

Mike Trout's problem is he's too good. If he were lousier people would see how difficult the things he does are.
11

87

73

86.1

89.2

88.5

.548

.568

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

1.0%

67.4%

The Tigers became the first American League team to clinch a playoff spot. So if you had Detroit in the pool, commence back-patting.
12

87

73

92.4

93.1

90.0

.567

.547

0.0%

97.5%

97.5%

1.8%

6.5%

Almost... almost.... almost... !
13

85

75

84.3

83.0

83.4

.525

.505

0.0%

2.5%

2.5%

-1.8%

-1.2%

The only remaining team alive for a playoff spot but not currently holding one, the Dodgers need to win both remaining games while St. Louis loses both.
14

84

76

86.8

83.7

82.6

.527

.547

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-67.7%

For the White Sox the season has been a season of redemption, of strikeouts, of excitement, of strikeouts, of strikeouts, of strikeouts, of almosts, and of strikeouts.
15

82

78

84.4

84.7

81.9

.520

.500

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

In an odd way, losing out on the playoffs must be a load off a player's mind. I mention it because the Brewers hit three homers.
16

81

79

81.1

83.0

82.6

.512

.492

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies have paid $22.5 million to their first baseman this season. They have received the following batting line: .241/.308/.418.
17

80

80

84.8

84.8

83.6

.521

.501

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Paul Goldschmidt hit his 20th homer yesterday. As they say, in the context of the Diamondbacks season, that's something.
18

78

82

77.4

78.5

76.3

.485

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

For Jose Tabata it's been an up and down season. For the Pirates it's been a season of wishing they hadn't signed Jose Tabata.
19

75

85

73.5

73.9

73.3

.462

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Unaware of the perils of attempting to select both pitching and hitting simultaneously, the Padres selected a "hitcher."
20

73

87

73.4

76.8

79.1

.472

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jason Bay is finishing up strong. He's hitting .165 on the season but over the last 10 days he's hitting .167.
21

73

87

74.4

73.2

75.3

.462

.482

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Even King Felix has had enough of this lousy season.
22

71

89

72.5

67.1

67.0

.434

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex Gordon: All-Star and, more importantly, someone the Royals don't have to be embarrassed about having drafted anymore.
23

71

89

72.9

68.8

70.7

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing to a bad team with their bad lineup is a fitting ending to this season for Toronto. So is the fact that it's not over yet.
24

69

91

74.1

76.1

76.8

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Clay Buchholz could have been the only Red Sox starter this season with an above-average ERA. Eight runs in 1 2/3 innings later the verdict is in: nope. Back in the clown car with you, Clay.
25

68

92

67.4

70.1

71.4

.433

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Marlins win both remaining games they'll lose the sixth overall draft pick to Boston.
26

67

93

62.9

68.2

68.7

.417

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Indians were so energized by new not-manager Sandy Alomar that they went out there, gave it the ol' college try, and lost 11-0. Hate to see what they'd do if they weren't trying.
27

66

94

67.1

69.6

69.5

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pass
28

63

97

67.6

64.2

63.6

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Does Jason Giambi have just two games left in his pro career? Yes he had a .372 on-base percentage this season, but he also posted a .303 slugging percentage.
29

60

100

64.5

61.1

61.5

.386

.367

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs lost their 100th game to the only team worse than them in the standings. Quantify that, statheads!
30

54

106

57.3

58.0

58.0

.355

.337

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Somewhere teams are playing out the string, not putting out maximum effort. Despite their record, that team doesn't exist in Houston. It is something to be proud of.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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