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Prospectus Hit List for September 28



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 27 Hit List for October 1
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Diamondbacks' playoff odds hit zero, and exactly half the league is now out of it.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

95

61

94.3

94.5

93.0

.604

.584

97.8%

2.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Hello, Bryce Harper, it is nice to see your third-highest-slugging-percentage-in-the-majors-over-the-past-month again!
2

92

64

89.6

94.2

93.0

.591

.610

95.5%

4.5%

100.0%

0.2%

-0.0%

A four-game lead with six to go is what we mathy people call a sure thing. And yes, I'm jinxing this on purpose simply out of curiosity.
3

86

70

90.3

90.4

91.8

.574

.594

0.2%

21.4%

21.6%

11.8%

15.0%

Eight straight wins for Tampa and now only two back of a Wild Card. Didn't I see this movie last year?
4

90

66

89.0

90.1

91.0

.577

.597

82.5%

17.0%

99.5%

-0.0%

0.7%

The Yankees got five hits last night. Three came from Robinson Cano and two came from Russell Martin. The rest of the team went 0-for-25.
5

84

72

88.8

89.8

86.5

.559

.540

0.0%

92.6%

92.6%

0.7%

8.2%

Kyle Lohse has 37 walks in 205 innings. That's the third-lowest walk rate on the team behind a guy who has pitched 24 innings and a guy who has pitched 11.
6

86

70

86.1

88.3

89.9

.561

.581

0.0%

9.2%

9.2%

-9.5%

-3.7%

Not only did the Angels lose a must-win game against an inferior opponent, but they got crushed. Don't want to put too much weight on one game, but when that's almost all there is remaining...
7

91

65

88.8

87.8

87.9

.570

.550

2.2%

97.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Five straight wins for Atlanta, though three of them came against Miami, so to be fair, we'll downgrade it to a four-game win streak.
8

84

72

83.6

86.8

86.4

.546

.566

87.1%

0.0%

87.1%

14.8%

58.2%

If someone said you had to bet your house and your job on which Tigers pitcher would strike out nine straight batters, I'd tell you not to do that. (It was Doug Fister)
9

94

62

87.2

85.0

82.2

.558

.539

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Losing 1-0 and down to their last out, the Reds went homer, single, triple. They're a bunch of ninjas, I tell you. Except Bronson Arroyo. He's not a ninja.
10

91

65

85.9

83.9

82.5

.550

.530

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Giants have won 10 straight games started by Barry Zito. That's like flipping a coin in the air 10 straight times and each time it lands on its side.
11

80

76

82.6

83.3

80.8

.524

.504

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

-2.8%

-7.1%

The Brewers game ended with John Axford giving up the lead. If they have stats for blown seasons Axford should get a one.
12

88

68

86.6

82.7

84.2

.547

.567

4.5%

81.2%

85.7%

-3.2%

-5.1%

How do you hit five home runs and still lose? All season long I've avoided the easy "I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you" line. If ever there was a time to do it, this is it. But no. I resist!
13

78

78

82.4

82.3

81.5

.519

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.8%

The Diamondbacks used five pitchers who, combined, managed a single strikeout. That came from Matt Albers. When Matt Albers leads your team in strikeouts, that day is not likely to move the standings in your favor.
14

82

74

84.5

82.3

81.0

.528

.548

12.9%

0.0%

12.9%

-14.8%

-60.3%

The White Sox had eight hits and five walks but only two runs. How? All singles. (1-for-8 with runners in scoring position didn't hurt that cause either.)
15

78

78

78.2

80.3

80.1

.507

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

In his post-game press conference, manager Charlie Manual said, "We don't come here to lose." Then he should have gestured towards the field and said, "Nope. We do that out there."
16

81

75

80.2

78.8

79.4

.512

.492

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

2.1%

0.6%

If there is a silver lining to being down 3 1/2 games with six to go it's that all their remaining games are at home. Because higher quality hot dogs help you play better baseball.
17

69

87

74.1

76.5

77.0

.475

.495

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Red Sox don't fire Bobby Valentine when the season ends, the city of Boston will engage in the silliest riot ever.
18

76

80

75.5

76.5

74.1

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Remember when we all thought the Pirates might make the playoffs? Ha ha! We're dumb.
19

72

84

72.0

75.7

77.8

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twenty wins for R.A. Dickey is the cherry in an empty sundae glass that is the Mets season.
20

89

67

77.9

75.3

76.8

.511

.531

17.3%

66.7%

84.0%

0.7%

-4.8%

The Orioles gained a half game on the Yankees without playing. Because they're the Orioles.
21

74

82

71.7

72.3

71.5

.464

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How do you hit .283/.371/.485 with 29 homers when half your games are in Petco Park? Someone should check Chase Headley's bat for too much awesome.
22

73

83

74.2

72.2

74.3

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners are taking to their spoiler role so well that GM Jack Zduriencik has announced that the team will refuse any playoff spot they qualify for next season.
23

66

90

66.0

68.5

69.8

.433

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Nothing better sums up the Marlins season than this: they are ending their season with Carlos Lee as their clean-up hitter and it's almost impossible to figure out why.
24

65

91

65.4

67.7

67.6

.426

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins have used 12 different starters this season. Of those, four have ERAs below 5.00, and one has an ERA below 4.00.
25

69

87

71.7

67.3

69.2

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every time Brett Lawrie homers an angel gets a large and instantly regrettable tattoo.
26

70

86

72.2

67.2

67.2

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals lost on a walk-off groundout. It's actually hard, when you think about it, to imagine how that happens. But it did!
27

65

91

60.5

65.3

66.0

.412

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It took the Indians two months to go from 'Manny Acta will be our manager in 2013' to 'You're fired.' At least now Acta will have more time to devote to watching Gangnam Style parody videos.
28

62

94

67.1

63.4

62.9

.409

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over 30,000 fans filled Coors Field to see the Cubs and Rockies, a battle of two bad teams and a game with zero playoff implications. Either there was a Todd Helton mullet-hat give-away or Denver is a greater baseball city than we could have imagined. (I'm guessing mullet hat.)
29

59

97

63.5

60.3

60.7

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Volstad: three innings, 10 hits, seven runs, no walks and no strikeouts. That's passing the buck to people who can't catch it.
30

51

105

54.6

54.8

55.0

.345

.327

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are in the infant stages. Right now they're eliminating everything, but soon they'll start to grow and get better and then they'll tell their dad they hate him and get thrown out of the house. Oh well.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
Wyomissing

This Daily Hit list is showing (for me) as the same one as for Sept. 27.

Sep 28, 2012 11:24 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Is there a button up top that let's you go to today's? Because I see the 28th up top here. Let me know if it's still not working for you.

Sep 28, 2012 14:31 PM
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