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Prospectus Hit List for August 16



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 15 Hit List for August 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

So much power in these rankings that [topical Melky Cabrera reference]

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

68

49

67.8

65.4

65.3

.569

.550

17.8%

73.8%

91.6%

1.9%

8.7%

The thing about picking up someone at the trade deadline is that with such a small sample, the possibilities really are endless. Enter Paul Maholm and his 1.57 ERA over three starts. Sure, fate may eventually track Maholm down, but by then the season will be over and he'll be someone else's problem.
2

64

53

70.0

70.8

68.5

.584

.564

8.3%

65.2%

73.5%

12.2%

19.9%

The highest-scoring team in the National League is in some danger of missing the playoffs. There is only one solution! Add five more Wild Cards.
3

62

56

63.6

66.0

66.6

.547

.567

6.8%

51.9%

58.7%

3.5%

-10.9%

Mike Trout hit another homer? [looks at driver's license] [thinks about unfulfilled promise]
4

63

54

63.3

62.1

62.9

.537

.557

1.4%

47.8%

49.2%

-5.8%

18.5%

The Tampa Rays received the following slash line from their DHs this season:: .216/.269/.367. In case you forgot or are coming down from a bath-salt high, DHs only hit.
5

63

55

61.6

63.4

64.6

.535

.555

36.2%

38.7%

74.9%

3.1%

-4.3%

Delmon Young homered yesterday, which makes it a good time to mention that the Tigers use Young (.265/.295/.403) as a designated "hitter." I assume "hitter" appears in ironic quotation marks in all of MLB's official documentation.
6

64

52

65.2

62.5

62.5

.548

.568

63.8%

23.8%

87.6%

3.5%

8.9%

Gavin Floyd's eight strikeouts and no... walks... were... were... I can't fight it anymore! ADAM DUNN HOMERED AND STRUCK OUT!
7

64

53

60.1

59.2

57.6

.515

.495

0.9%

20.6%

21.5%

-14.1%

-39.9%

As in most Augusts, the Pirates played spoiler last night. They spoiled it for themselves.
8

73

45

70.8

71.6

69.8

.604

.585

82.2%

17.6%

99.8%

0.4%

2.1%

Stephen Strasburg was pulled over for speeding. Strasburg: But officer, I was going the speed limit. Officer: That's right. But statistics show that at some point in the future you might have exceeded it.
9

64

53

54.1

51.2

52.6

.474

.494

0.4%

13.7%

14.1%

3.0%

3.5%

In the first five innings of the game, the Orioles were shut out and no-hit. In the last three (there was no ninth) they had six hits and five runs.
10

61

55

60.5

57.6

58.4

.512

.532

1.1%

12.7%

13.8%

-3.9%

-10.2%

In contrast to Chuck and his increasingly famous cousin Bud (note: not his cousin), Derek Norris is not a star or an internet sensation. He is from Kansas and he has a beard. Thatís all.
11

71

46

67.5

65.8

64.5

.574

.555

90.8%

8.6%

99.4%

1.7%

7.3%

How do you stop R.A. Dickey? Hitting three homers off him is a good start.
12

64

54

61.8

62.0

61.1

.527

.507

43.7%

7.1%

50.8%

-9.6%

-16.6%

Usually when someone fails a PED test, they deny it, act indignant, and maybe offer a non-apology apology. Melky Cabrera failed a PED test, admitted what he did and accepted his penalty. Somehow in the face of cheating, there is honor there.
13

67

49

65.3

68.6

68.3

.580

.599

92.1%

6.3%

98.4%

-0.8%

-0.9%

Josh Hamilton faced Freddy Garcia three times. He saw 10 pitches. None of them were fastballs. He homered off a slider and a splitter.
14

65

53

63.1

61.2

60.4

.529

.509

48.0%

5.5%

53.5%

10.4%

25.9%

Among National League teams, the Dodgers got the worst production out of their DH plate appearances. Clearly this is something the team must throw tens of millions of dollars at during the offseason.
15

57

61

62.3

64.4

64.8

.527

.546

0.0%

3.1%

3.1%

-2.9%

-5.1%

Aaron Cook had a no-hitter through five innings. He didn't make it out of the sixth. At some point he must have remembered he was a member of the Red Sox starting pitching staff.
16

70

47

69.6

69.9

70.7

.599

.618

98.2%

1.7%

99.9%

0.3%

1.0%

Of his 100 pitches, Freddy Garcia threw 47 sliders. The rest were curveballs, splitters, changeups, and sinkers. There might have been a straight fastball in there somewhere, but if so, the computer missed it.
17

58

59

61.8

62.4

61.9

.521

.501

8.3%

1.6%

9.9%

-2.8%

-6.5%

And that's how you fall completely out of a pennant race in 10 days.
18

55

62

57.4

56.0

56.8

.481

.501

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.4%

Back in 1998, Magic Johnson started his own late-night talk show called The Magic Hour. Ricky Romero is The Magic Hour of pitchers. He's unwatchably bad.
19

55

64

58.5

55.5

56.7

.474

.494

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

After his perfect game, Felix Hernandez was taken out to a steak house. He ordered the porterhouse, medium rare. It came medium well. Can't expect perfection, I guess.
20

54

64

47.9

52.8

53.5

.441

.461

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Fausto Carmona isn't Fausto Carmona. Fausto Carmona is Roberto Hernandez. Who, you ask, is Roberto Hernandez? Fausto Carmona.
21

54

63

54.3

57.0

56.7

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This year has been so wild you almost expect to see someone like Greg Dobbs homering off of someone like Roy Halladay. And, hey, guess what happened yesterday?
22

44

71

46.9

45.4

45.8

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies sure can score runs, right? Well, depending on where they are playing, yes. In Colorado they're fine. On the road they've scored the second-fewest runs of any team in baseball.
23

39

80

43.7

43.1

42.8

.354

.336

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bud Norris facts: 1) When Bud Norris goes to the movie theater, he requests popcorn without butter. Gotta watch those calories! 2) Bud Norris always uses a coaster because nothing says dirty or hairy than rings on your coffee table.
24

51

65

52.7

50.7

50.6

.442

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Getz hit three doubles. Yes, that Chris Getz. No, you've never heard of him.
25

53

65

48.8

49.3

50.2

.426

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

For the last CBA, Major League Baseball considered a rule that would have required the Marlins to spend $200 million each offseason and then trade away $200 million at each trading deadline. The deal was struck down as redundant.
26

46

70

48.1

45.3

45.7

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

As part of a coordinated government effort to save the eyes of thousands of baseball fans, a member of the United States Navy Parachute team landed on the field before the Astros/Cubs game.
27

50

67

50.2

52.0

52.2

.437

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Max Scherzer struck out 10 Twins. The Twins have had six games this season where their pitching staff totaled 10 or more strikeouts. Francisco Liriano, who has since been traded, started four of those games.
28

52

67

52.5

53.8

52.3

.443

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Say what you will about the Huston Street and Carlos Quentin extensions, but the Mat Latos trade has worked out as well as the Padres could have hoped.
29

55

62

55.1

57.3

59.0

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.6%

David Wright .400 watch: David Wright just needs to hit .627 from this point on.
30

52

64

56.7

56.9

55.3

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

Things you did not know and will soon forget: catcher Jonathan Lucroy has a .905 OPS.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
stevebro

Matt, gotta tell you, I too was shocked by Melky's mild acceptance of the hammer coming down. The concept of honor had, however, never occurred to me. I my cynical mind I thought something else must have been involved. Like, I was thinking Selig must have agreed not to seek death by lethal injection in exchange for Melky's acceptance of the sanction. I was thinking it HAD to be something along those lines. As you suggest, it kinda would be nice if he was just 'fessin up.

Aug 16, 2012 13:02 PM
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orenjungreis

Lol Romero "unwatchable bad"... I gues you can't help getting digs in at the Jays even when they're already down

Aug 16, 2012 14:30 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I get digs in on everybody. No offense intended.

Aug 17, 2012 00:03 AM
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