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Prospectus Hit List for July 20



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 19 Hit List for July 23
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Pirates' playoff odds are 49 percent!

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

38

54

37.1

39.7

39.9

.421

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Time again for Happy Twins Facts! Twins pitching has induced the most double plays (94) of any team! Yay!
2

34

59

37.2

35.6

34.8

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros' elimination number is 52. Seems like it should be much lower.
3

35

56

38.5

35.9

35.6

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There are two basic routes the Rockies can travel to build a team at high altitude. 1) Build a giant hermetically sealed, sea-level pressurized, tax-payer funded dome. 2) Build a better baseball team.
4

44

48

39.1

41.5

41.9

.453

.433

0.7%

3.1%

3.8%

0.4%

0.0%

The Marlins are apparently ready to trade anyone and everything. They called Boston yesterday to propose acquiring the Green Monster for their bizarre home run sculpture thingy.
5

38

53

39.4

37.2

37.5

.418

.399

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since June 25th (hooray for specifically chosen start points!) the Cubs are 14-5. On that day Chicago was 15 1/2 games out of first place. Now they are 13 1/2. So if the Cubs are able to extend the season and go 98-35 they'll be in first place.
6

39

55

39.9

39.9

38.7

.419

.399

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Edinson Volquez threw a one-hit shutout of the Astros. In your face, Mat Latos!
7

39

52

40.0

38.6

39.2

.431

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

This season has been and will likely remain a disappointment for the Royals, but there is still hope. A fabulous farm system is bearing its fruits. It can't come soon enough as the club got beat up by Seattle. Come on, fruits! Bear!
8

48

44

40.2

38.6

40.1

.454

.474

0.2%

8.7%

8.9%

3.7%

1.8%

Other than two early days in April, the Orioles have spent all but five days of summer in first or second place. Are you getting the feeling we just reached the top of the rollercoaster as well?
9

47

45

42.3

46.3

46.9

.496

.516

12.6%

7.5%

20.1%

-10.3%

-16.2%

A year ago the Indians traded four promising young players to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since the trade, Jimenez has posted an ERA above 5.00 in 175 1/3 innings. The young players are still young.
10

41

52

43.8

46.0

45.1

.473

.453

0.1%

2.4%

2.5%

1.7%

1.2%

If the Phillies are able to re-sign Cole Hamels, they'll have gone from having the best rotation in baseball history two seasons ago to having the future most expensive best rotation in baseball history two seasons ago.
11

44

47

45.1

44.6

43.0

.486

.466

2.8%

9.1%

11.9%

-1.1%

2.9%

Losing Zack Greinke to free agency would be very hard on the Brewers, but trading Greinke would be giving up on the season. So instead the Brewers have decided to injure Greinke by forcing him to pitch three out of every five days. Outside-the-box thinking that.
12

40

54

45.4

43.1

43.6

.458

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When all signs point to a certain outcome, it's called a reverse lock. When Felix Hernandez faces the Royals, that's a reverse reverse lock.
13

44

48

46.1

48.6

48.0

.507

.487

6.7%

11.4%

18.1%

2.5%

-7.7%

Arizona had more than twice as many hits (14) as its opponent, Cincinnati, did (6). Of course I'm mentioning it because Arizona lost. You saw that coming, right?
14

48

45

46.8

44.6

46.3

.499

.519

0.5%

18.5%

19.0%

2.1%

-3.9%

Ben Zobrist provides value in so may ways besides offense. Defense and baserunning are important, but Zobrist can cook a crazy good omelet, helps his teammates brush their teeth (cavities are painful!), and is always available for housesitting.
15

49

44

47.1

46.5

45.7

.506

.486

14.0%

9.8%

23.8%

0.8%

-17.8%

One advantage in having a team so full of holes that you can't see the "team" part is that, when it comes to trading deadline season, finding help shouldn't be too difficult. Just about anyone will do. You! Reader! Play third base for the Dodgers now, please.
16

45

47

47.2

44.5

45.6

.495

.515

0.0%

2.8%

2.8%

-2.1%

-3.3%

Ricky Romero is tied for the league lead with six successful pickoffs. That's a valuable skill to have, which he has. Of course, so is keeping your season ERA below 5.00, which he doesn't.
17

51

41

47.3

48.7

48.7

.532

.512

79.2%

6.3%

85.5%

-4.2%

24.2%

Melky Cabrera is really enjoying his time in San Francisco. Yesterday he spent the day daring oncoming cable cars to hit him. Then he parked in a loading zone and violently gestured at the parking police to give him a ticket.
18

47

45

47.5

47.7

48.4

.518

.498

3.3%

15.7%

19.0%

2.7%

-6.2%

An analyst says that with each single, David Wright's asking price on the free agent market goes up $100. A homer is $1,000, and a smiling post-game interview is $10,000. You don't want to know how much being accidentally captured naked on live TV is worth.
19

49

44

47.6

48.4

49.3

.522

.542

30.6%

13.8%

44.4%

2.9%

13.9%

In 2010 Austin Jackson posted a BABIP of .396 and everyone said it was a fluke and he would regress. Next year his BABIP was .346. More coming, said people. This year? .395. Has Austin Jackson broken BABIP?
20

48

44

47.7

45.5

46.3

.509

.529

0.4%

9.1%

9.5%

2.7%

5.3%

Knowing it is notoriously difficult for eastern teams to travel to Oakland and play well, the A's are moving their stadium. Not to San Jose, but to Goose Lake in the very northeastern corner of the state. "There isn't an airport for years," laughed GM Billy Beane. "Let's see the Yankees hit six homers with the worst jet lag on the planet."
21

50

41

48.6

48.2

48.8

.537

.517

28.5%

41.3%

69.8%

3.9%

2.5%

Tim Hudson is undefeated when his team scores more runs than they give up. (Some national TV broadcasters might disagree, but intensive research bears this out.)
22

51

40

49.4

47.0

46.2

.532

.512

19.2%

29.9%

49.1%

-0.5%

3.9%

The Pirates' vast improvement on offense hasn't carried over to their stolen base totals, where they lead baseball in getting caught trying to steal. They are the Pirates after all.
23

52

40

51.0

48.2

48.4

.542

.522

56.2%

27.6%

83.8%

1.3%

7.8%

Inside the Reds strategy: like ghost runners, manager Dusty Baker will use ghost Vottos to pinch-hit.
24

50

42

51.1

50.9

51.5

.553

.573

56.8%

19.7%

76.5%

-2.8%

-2.0%

Jose Quintana faced 28 Red Sox hitters. Two struck out. 26 put the ball in play. Five reached safely. If he can keep that up, he'll be pretty good. (He can't keep that up.)
25

50

43

51.4

53.2

53.6

.560

.579

9.8%

71.7%

81.5%

-3.6%

-4.8%

The Angels are 14-3 when Albert Pujols homers. (Working on a project -- don't tell anyone -- that posits that home runs correlate to victories.)
26

53

37

52.1

53.6

52.2

.586

.566

67.4%

18.1%

85.5%

-5.5%

4.1%

Bryce Harper's OPS by month: .875, .860, .780, .684 (Yes, I'm cheating, the first "month" is six at-bats. Sue me). (Please, don't sue me.)
27

48

45

52.5

53.8

53.3

.558

.578

1.1%

38.6%

39.7%

4.9%

10.3%

Cody Ross has three three-run homers in the past two games. Cody Ross! Would you trade Cody Ross for anyone in baseball right now?! Of course you would.
28

47

45

52.7

53.6

51.8

.557

.538

21.8%

26.0%

47.8%

-2.1%

-14.9%

Three Cardinals facts that may or may not be true: 1) several players own goats, which graze in the outfield, 2) the team has 100 home runs exactly, 3) through tragic personal experience the team is now serving flame retardant fruit.
29

55

36

53.8

57.0

55.6

.608

.627

89.8%

9.1%

98.9%

2.5%

-0.5%

The Rangers are still absolutely the best team in baseball according to everyone who doesn't really pay all that much attention to it.
30

57

35

54.2

54.1

54.6

.598

.617

98.2%

1.6%

99.8%

0.0%

-0.6%

With a nine-game lead in their division, the Yankees have announced that they're taking the rest of July off. "We're kinda tired and, whoo boy is it hot," said Joe Girardi. "I figured we have this lead in the standings which we aren't using, why not use it? I'm going to Tahiti. See you in August, suckers!"

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
jedjethro

I always enjoy these, but it seemed like today's version had a particularly high percentage of extra-entertaining comments.

Jul 20, 2012 07:41 AM
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+6

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Awesome. Glad you enjoyed it!

Jul 20, 2012 10:17 AM
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0

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fawcettb

Re: Colorado. Alternative#3 Get a better manager. Tracy has lost that team.

Jul 20, 2012 08:48 AM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm not sure that'll fix all their problems like a hermetically sealed, sea-level pressurized dome will. I mean, that would really fix everything.

Jul 20, 2012 10:18 AM
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+1

down_image
 
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