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Prospectus Hit List for July 19



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 18 Hit List for July 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Nationals push past 90 percent playoff odds.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

55

36

53.8

57.0

55.6

.608

.627

85.7%

10.6%

96.3%

-3.7%

-3.2%

The Rangers were just passed by the Red Sox in most runs scored. Theyd better pick it up or Ron Washington is gonna have to start spanking some dudes.
2

57

34

53.8

53.7

54.2

.601

.620

97.8%

2.0%

99.8%

-0.1%

1.0%

Each of the five most frequently used Yankee starters has an above-average ERA. The only hitter in the Yankees normal batting order with a below-average OPS is Russell Martin.
3

53

36

52.1

53.2

51.8

.590

.571

73.3%

17.7%

91.0%

-0.9%

11.2%

Adam LaRoche's ninth-inning homer highlights the fact that the Nationals are fifth in OPS by first baseman, ahead of the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox. Not bad for $8 million. Not bad for LaRoche.
4

50

42

51.3

53.2

53.5

.565

.585

14.2%

70.9%

85.1%

0.6%

-2.0%

Mike Trout! Mike Trout? Mike Trout! (That could pretty much go in this space every day.)
5

47

45

52.7

53.6

51.9

.558

.538

22.7%

27.2%

49.9%

-11.4%

-10.8%

The Cardinals outhit the Brewers seven to five, they outwalked them nine to two, and they outpitched them. So of course they lost.
6

47

45

51.8

53.2

52.7

.556

.576

1.7%

33.1%

34.8%

9.1%

5.5%

Cody Ross went 3-for-5 with a double and two homers. The double was almost a homer too, but by that point Cody Ross just didn't feel the need.
7

50

41

50.8

50.4

51.0

.555

.575

60.0%

19.3%

79.3%

-5.8%

-3.9%

Pedro Hernandez may be one of the great pitching names of our time. If he keeps giving up three homers every four innings though he'll never get the chance to achieve his predestined greatness.
8

51

40

50.4

48.0

48.2

.543

.523

54.1%

28.3%

82.4%

1.8%

4.8%

Aroldis Chapman did not pitch and the Reds still struck out nine Diamondback hitters. Three of those were pitcher Ian Kennedy, but still.
9

49

41

47.9

47.9

48.4

.537

.517

23.4%

42.5%

65.9%

-3.3%

1.6%

Giving up an 11th inning home run to Brandon Crawford is like dropping hot sauce in your eye and then trying to get it out with a fork.
10

51

40

46.9

48.0

47.9

.532

.512

85.0%

4.7%

89.7%

3.1%

26.1%

It looks like the Giants are stuck with playing Brandon Belt at first base. Let's all send them e-cards with little crying cartoon bunnies on the front to express our condolences.
11

51

40

49.4

47.0

46.2

.532

.512

21.3%

28.3%

49.6%

6.1%

9.5%

Andrew McCutchen is nuts. Just totally nuts, but Neil Walker is doing his part as well, hitting .453/.532/.736 in July which, the astute reader will note, is nuts.
12

48

44

46.7

47.4

48.2

.517

.537

23.8%

17.7%

41.5%

6.6%

12.1%

The Tigers are scoring runs (eighth most in baseball) and on days when Prince Fielder doesn't body-check the catcher during a pop-up or Miguel Cabrera doesn't fall over attempting to field a bunt, that works.
13

46

45

46.5

47.2

47.8

.515

.495

2.6%

13.8%

16.4%

1.1%

-12.3%

Ruben ".317/.368/.392" Tejada: Jose Reyes in-his-place putter
14

44

47

45.7

47.7

47.2

.507

.487

4.2%

11.4%

15.6%

0.2%

-8.4%

Data: B.J. Upton's OPS is down 149 points from last season. Analysis: thats bad.
15

47

44

47.0

44.9

45.5

.507

.527

0.1%

6.7%

6.8%

-0.1%

3.2%

That there is a space for someone like Brandon Inge and his .211/.278/.366 line in the majors is one thing, but that he is can not only play on a contender but get press for being good is a statement on the As offense.
16

49

44

47.1

46.4

45.7

.506

.486

10.8%

12.2%

23.0%

3.1%

-26.0%

It would be easy to criticize the Dodgers for batting Tony Gwynn and his .238/.282/.300 line first, but when looking down the rest of the lineup, the enormity of the problem sets in and it gets harder to criticize.
17

47

44

42.5

46.8

47.4

.505

.525

16.2%

14.2%

30.4%

0.0%

4.0%

Weve come to understand the value behind groundball pitchers like Justin Masterson more in recent years, but its hard to imagine a time will come when the analytical community gets behind seven walks and one strikeout in four innings.
18

45

47

47.2

44.5

45.7

.496

.516

0.1%

4.7%

4.8%

0.3%

-1.7%

Getting swept by the Yankees pushed the Jays under .500, officially making them the fourth team to have a losing record in the American League. That's exclusivity. They should all have bowling shirts made.
19

47

45

45.7

43.1

44.8

.491

.511

0.4%

16.5%

16.9%

-4.5%

-8.1%

Immediately after allowing eight two-out runs to Cleveland, Joe Maddon began petitioning Bud Selig to change the number of outs in an inning to two.
20

44

47

45.1

44.6

43.0

.485

.465

1.9%

11.0%

12.9%

3.8%

4.7%

With a two-run lead in the ninth, Francisco Rodriguez faced seven hitters, gave up a double, and walked three others. For that he got a save! There should be a stat called the Failed Torch Job. Last night Francisco Rodriguez got the first Failed Torch Job.
21

41

52

43.8

46.0

45.1

.473

.453

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-1.1%

0.1%

Charlie Manuel has been getting criticism for not using closer Jonathan Papelbon to preserve tie games on the road. So last night he did, finally, in the 12th, and Papelbon blew up. Bring back the dark ages!
22

44

47

38.8

41.3

41.7

.455

.436

0.7%

2.8%

3.5%

-2.5%

-0.6%

Carlos Lee walked three times. I'm comfortable saying they were all by accident.
23

47

44

39.6

38.2

39.8

.452

.472

0.0%

5.1%

5.1%

-2.0%

-7.0%

If a player is traded outside a pennant race does it make a sound?
24

39

54

44.4

42.0

42.7

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Mariners may be 39-54 with over-the-hill old guys and under-the-hill young guys but as long as they avoid trading King Felix we'll all still pay attention.
25

39

51

40.1

38.6

39.2

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

'Trust the Process' would be an ironic thing to see on a tombstone.
26

38

53

36.8

39.2

39.5

.422

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer leads the majors by grounding into 16 double plays. He's egalitarian like that.
27

38

55

39.3

39.3

38.2

.416

.397

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Huston Street has appeared in 27 games and has given up a run in three of them. He plays for a last-place team. Think he'll get traded?
28

37

53

38.7

36.5

36.8

.414

.395

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cubs Baseball: Hair of the Dogging it since 1908.
29

35

56

38.5

35.9

35.6

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have a player with a homer-to-strikeout ratio of 2-to-1. Unfortunately, it's Jeremy Guthrie, who is a pitcher.
30

34

58

36.9

35.3

34.7

.383

.364

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When on a non-contender, there are two ways to get traded. The first is to play out of your mind in hopes that a contender will fall head over heals. The second is to hasten your way out of town by sucking out loud. With a 5.65 ERA in his past 10 starts, Wandy Rodriguez has chosen option two.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
rcrary

Um, Papelbon's blow up was in the 10th, a regular old blown 2-run save. That left rookie Jake Diekman to give up Kemp's inevitable walk-off (though one wonders why Kemp was not intentionally walked there, but no matter).

Jul 19, 2012 06:58 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Yeah, ol' Paps didn't lose the game, but his usage was against Manual's grain so I thought I'd mention it.

Jul 19, 2012 08:53 AM
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rcrary

No, I'm saying it was NOT against Manuel's grain. It was a regular old save situation, not tied on the road. He MADE it a tie game.

Jul 19, 2012 12:40 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Ah! Right you are. And wrong I am. Whoops. Thanks for pointing that out.

Jul 19, 2012 19:46 PM
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