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Prospectus Hit List for July 19



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 18 Hit List for July 20
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Nationals push past 90 percent playoff odds.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLF AHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

55

36

53.8

57.0

55.6

.608

.627

85.7%

10.6%

96.3%

-3.7%

-3.2%

The Rangers were just passed by the Red Sox in most runs scored. They’d better pick it up or Ron Washington is gonna have to start spanking some dudes.
2

57

34

53.8

53.7

54.2

.601

.620

97.8%

2.0%

99.8%

-0.1%

1.0%

Each of the five most frequently used Yankee starters has an above-average ERA. The only hitter in the Yankees normal batting order with a below-average OPS is Russell Martin.
3

50

42

51.3

53.2

53.5

.565

.585

14.2%

70.9%

85.1%

0.6%

-2.0%

Mike Trout! Mike Trout? Mike Trout! (That could pretty much go in this space every day.)
4

47

45

51.8

53.2

52.7

.556

.576

1.7%

33.1%

34.8%

9.1%

5.5%

Cody Ross went 3-for-5 with a double and two homers. The double was almost a homer too, but by that point Cody Ross just didn't feel the need.
5

50

41

50.8

50.4

51.0

.555

.575

60.0%

19.3%

79.3%

-5.8%

-3.9%

Pedro Hernandez may be one of the great pitching names of our time. If he keeps giving up three homers every four innings though he'll never get the chance to achieve his predestined greatness.
6

53

36

52.1

53.2

51.8

.590

.571

73.3%

17.7%

91.0%

-0.9%

11.2%

Adam LaRoche's ninth-inning homer highlights the fact that the Nationals are fifth in OPS by first baseman, ahead of the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox. Not bad for $8 million. Not bad for LaRoche.
7

47

45

52.7

53.6

51.9

.558

.538

22.7%

27.2%

49.9%

-11.4%

-10.8%

The Cardinals outhit the Brewers seven to five, they outwalked them nine to two, and they outpitched them. So of course they lost.
8

48

44

46.7

47.4

48.2

.517

.537

23.8%

17.7%

41.5%

6.6%

12.1%

The Tigers are scoring runs (eighth most in baseball) and on days when Prince Fielder doesn't body-check the catcher during a pop-up or Miguel Cabrera doesn't fall over attempting to field a bunt, that works.
9

47

44

47.0

44.9

45.5

.507

.527

0.1%

6.7%

6.8%

-0.1%

3.2%

That there is a space for someone like Brandon Inge and his .211/.278/.366 line in the majors is one thing, but that he is can not only play on a contender but get press for being good is a statement on the A’s offense.
10

47

44

42.5

46.8

47.4

.505

.525

16.2%

14.2%

30.4%

0.0%

4.0%

We’ve come to understand the value behind groundball pitchers like Justin Masterson more in recent years, but it’s hard to imagine a time will come when the analytical community gets behind seven walks and one strikeout in four innings.
11

51

40

50.4

48.0

48.2

.543

.523

54.1%

28.3%

82.4%

1.8%

4.8%

Aroldis Chapman did not pitch and the Reds still struck out nine Diamondback hitters. Three of those were pitcher Ian Kennedy, but still.
12

49

41

47.9

47.9

48.4

.537

.517

23.4%

42.5%

65.9%

-3.3%

1.6%

Giving up an 11th inning home run to Brandon Crawford is like dropping hot sauce in your eye and then trying to get it out with a fork.
13

45

47

47.2

44.5

45.7

.496

.516

0.1%

4.7%

4.8%

0.3%

-1.7%

Getting swept by the Yankees pushed the Jays under .500, officially making them the fourth team to have a losing record in the American League. That's exclusivity. They should all have bowling shirts made.
14

51

40

46.9

48.0

47.9

.532

.512

85.0%

4.7%

89.7%

3.1%

26.1%

It looks like the Giants are stuck with playing Brandon Belt at first base. Let's all send them e-cards with little crying cartoon bunnies on the front to express our condolences.
15

51

40

49.4

47.0

46.2

.532

.512

21.3%

28.3%

49.6%

6.1%

9.5%

Andrew McCutchen is nuts. Just totally nuts, but Neil Walker is doing his part as well, hitting .453/.532/.736 in July which, the astute reader will note, is nuts.
16

47

45

45.7

43.1

44.8

.491

.511

0.4%

16.5%

16.9%

-4.5%

-8.1%

Immediately after allowing eight two-out runs to Cleveland, Joe Maddon began petitioning Bud Selig to change the number of outs in an inning to two.
17

46

45

46.5

47.2

47.8

.515

.495

2.6%

13.8%

16.4%

1.1%

-12.3%

Ruben ".317/.368/.392" Tejada: Jose Reyes in-his-place putter
18

44

47

45.7

47.7

47.2

.507

.487

4.2%

11.4%

15.6%

0.2%

-8.4%

Data: B.J. Upton's OPS is down 149 points from last season. Analysis: that’s bad.
19

49

44

47.1

46.4

45.7

.506

.486

10.8%

12.2%

23.0%

3.1%

-26.0%

It would be easy to criticize the Dodgers for batting Tony Gwynn and his .238/.282/.300 line first, but when looking down the rest of the lineup, the enormity of the problem sets in and it gets harder to criticize.
20

47

44

39.6

38.2

39.8

.452

.472

0.0%

5.1%

5.1%

-2.0%

-7.0%

If a player is traded outside a pennant race does it make a sound?
21

39

54

44.4

42.0

42.7

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Mariners may be 39-54 with over-the-hill old guys and under-the-hill young guys but as long as they avoid trading King Felix we'll all still pay attention.
22

44

47

45.1

44.6

43.0

.485

.465

1.9%

11.0%

12.9%

3.8%

4.7%

With a two-run lead in the ninth, Francisco Rodriguez faced seven hitters, gave up a double, and walked three others. For that he got a save! There should be a stat called the Failed Torch Job. Last night Francisco Rodriguez got the first Failed Torch Job.
23

39

51

40.1

38.6

39.2

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

'Trust the Process' would be an ironic thing to see on a tombstone.
24

41

52

43.8

46.0

45.1

.473

.453

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-1.1%

0.1%

Charlie Manuel has been getting criticism for not using closer Jonathan Papelbon to preserve tie games on the road. So last night he did, finally, in the 12th, and Papelbon blew up. Bring back the dark ages!
25

38

53

36.8

39.2

39.5

.422

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer leads the majors by grounding into 16 double plays. He's egalitarian like that.
26

44

47

38.8

41.3

41.7

.455

.436

0.7%

2.8%

3.5%

-2.5%

-0.6%

Carlos Lee walked three times. I'm comfortable saying they were all by accident.
27

38

55

39.3

39.3

38.2

.416

.397

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Huston Street has appeared in 27 games and has given up a run in three of them. He plays for a last-place team. Think he'll get traded?
28

37

53

38.7

36.5

36.8

.414

.395

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cubs Baseball: Hair of the Dogging it since 1908.
29

35

56

38.5

35.9

35.6

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have a player with a homer-to-strikeout ratio of 2-to-1. Unfortunately, it's Jeremy Guthrie, who is a pitcher.
30

34

58

36.9

35.3

34.7

.383

.364

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When on a non-contender, there are two ways to get traded. The first is to play out of your mind in hopes that a contender will fall head over heals. The second is to hasten your way out of town by sucking out loud. With a 5.65 ERA in his past 10 starts, Wandy Rodriguez has chosen option two.