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Prospectus Hit List for May 15



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 14 Hit List for May 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

San Diego achieves something special!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

24

11

21.6

21.7

21.7

.636

.617

24.4%

7.8%

32.2%

2.2%

12.8%

Ian Kennedy was so intent on brushing Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw back that he walked him. So Kershaw returned the favor two innings later.
2

20

15

19.5

19.6

18.9

.557

.577

58.7%

24.9%

83.6%

2.2%

5.5%

Raul Ibanez was hurt by a pitch last night. We don't root for anyone to get hurt here at Hit List, but we do acknowledge that sometimes a player can best help his team from the safe distance of the disabled list, SSS .543 slugging percentage or not.
3

17

18

16.6

15.6

14.8

.457

.477

64.6%

10.9%

75.5%

1.7%

5.3%

Luke Putkonen blew the lead and gave up three runs in a third of an inning. His name is almost the solution for him. "Put Cone In!" "Who is Cone?" "I don't care. Anybody but this guy!"
4

15

20

14.3

14.6

14.8

.419

.400

20.1%

34.5%

54.5%

1.8%

3.0%

Sure, a Brewers team with playoff expectations is in last place, but that doesn't make them any different than the Angels, Red Sox, or Phillies.
5

17

19

17.9

17.3

18.3

.489

.469

36.7%

24.1%

60.7%

2.1%

2.9%

In win, Blanton baffles Astros, coaches, scouts, analysts, statisticians, physicists, pitching experts, reporters, own mother, and guy by the bathroom in a nice restaurant.
6

22

14

21.2

19.9

19.2

.572

.552

37.9%

23.5%

61.4%

2.6%

2.3%

This is the fifth year Dan Uggla's one-act play, "Spinning Like a Top Between Good and Only Okay" is performing nightly at ballparks around the nation.
7

18

17

17.4

17.4

17.5

.502

.482

20.2%

21.7%

41.9%

1.0%

1.7%

Some criticized the Marlins for not signing Albert Pujols, relegating themselves to Gaby Sanchez at first base. Sanchez' OPS: 550. Pujols' OPS: 510. Now we know: there was no right answer.
8

23

13

25.5

26.3

26.0

.700

.717

82.7%

14.1%

96.8%

0.3%

0.4%

Forget that the Rangers have outscored every team in baseball thus far, and focus on the fact that they've allowed the fewest runs in the American League. OK, now remember the first thing. Impressive, huh?
9

19

17

17.3

16.1

16.3

.476

.496

0.0%

1.3%

1.4%

0.5%

0.4%

Which is stranger, that Josh Reddick is hitting .289/.340/.549 or that Ryan Sweeney, the guy they traded for him, is hitting .333/.364/.468.
10

17

19

18.1

19.0

18.7

.506

.526

9.8%

8.1%

17.9%

-0.9%

0.3%

Gordon Beckham is not related to David Beckham in any way except that he can bend pitches around his bat.
11

17

18

14.7

13.7

15.0

.431

.411

0.3%

1.3%

1.5%

0.4%

0.2%

The Pirates became the last team to reach 100 runs scored. This is subject to change should one of the players score the little known negative run by going backwards around the bases.
12

16

21

17.0

16.7

16.4

.446

.466

0.1%

0.7%

0.7%

0.0%

0.2%

Mariners hitters have been hit by a pitch twice this season. Twenty-eight different hitters have been hit more, including Kelly Shoppach who has been hit four times in 49 plate appearances.
13

15

20

17.7

16.6

17.6

.478

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Is it possible the Houston Astros are not as bad as we all thought they were? It is now officially possible that it's possible.
14

14

20

14.6

14.0

13.8

.415

.435

0.3%

0.3%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.0%

Fortune from a Kansas City-area Chinese buffet: The wise man pays no attention to his young pitcher's arm pain.
15

15

20

15.4

16.9

19.2

.476

.456

0.3%

2.2%

2.5%

0.1%

-0.1%

Instead of signing Albert Pujols, Cubs GM Theo Epstein simply trapped his soul in a zip-lock baggie, distilled it into a liquid, and then injected it into lifetime minor leaguer Bryan LaHair. That's how you save $300 million.
16

10

25

10.6

11.7

11.9

.316

.333

0.6%

0.4%

1.0%

0.2%

-0.1%

You know how they say any team can beat a pennant winner on a given night? The Twins are any team, but it isn't a given night.
17

20

15

15.9

16.0

17.7

.497

.477

2.8%

6.6%

9.3%

0.8%

-0.1%

David Wright is the only player on the Mets with 50 at-bats and a slugging percentage above .430.
18

19

17

19.7

18.5

17.6

.520

.540

1.3%

4.9%

6.2%

0.2%

-0.3%

Brandon Morrow's no-hitter through four became a lots-of-runners through five.
19

16

19

18.1

18.6

17.7

.503

.523

23.4%

33.3%

56.7%

2.3%

-0.6%

David Ortiz' OPS against left-handed pitching from 2008 to present: .741, .716, .599, .989, 1.139.
20

22

14

19.3

18.3

17.5

.535

.555

0.8%

2.8%

3.5%

0.2%

-0.9%

The Orioles lead all of baseball in grounding into double plays. Buck Showalter's extra double play practice during spring training has paid off.
21

22

14

19.6

19.3

19.0

.554

.574

15.8%

30.0%

45.8%

-1.3%

-1.2%

Luke Scott may be sporting a lackluster .292 OBP, but at some undetermined but nearby point in time his facial hair will swallow his face. So that's something to look forward to.
22

20

15

23.8

24.6

23.7

.658

.640

65.8%

21.6%

87.4%

-2.9%

-1.9%

Is there an organization that turns a scrap heap into above-average players better than the Cardinals? A report that Busch Stadium is made from old shopping bags, discarded cardboard fruit boxes, and used gum wouldn't be surprising.
23

13

21

15.3

13.1

14.3

.410

.390

8.8%

3.5%

12.3%

-0.2%

-1.9%

A foul ball by Dexter Fowler (should have seen that coming, huh?) struck Troy Tulowitzki in the leg, forcing Tulowitzki to leave the game. Go back and watch the video if you're curious what a $157 million foul ball looks like.
24

18

16

17.7

15.3

16.1

.494

.474

13.5%

30.4%

43.9%

-0.9%

-1.9%

Joey Votto hit no home runs yesterday but, thanks to the three he hit Sunday, the world continued to rotate on its axis.
25

12

24

14.1

13.5

15.2

.381

.362

8.6%

3.7%

12.3%

-1.2%

-2.0%

Trivia buffs, make a mental note: Bryce Harper's first homer came off the Padres. It's nice when an organization that can't win a World Series takes it upon themselves to help others achieve their dreams.
26

19

16

16.0

17.4

15.9

.488

.508

24.7%

15.6%

40.2%

-3.6%

-3.6%

Fact 1: Johnny Damon was not in the lineup. Fact 2: The Indians won. Coincidence? Probably yes!
27

18

17

17.0

17.6

18.2

.506

.486

34.5%

7.4%

41.9%

-0.2%

-4.2%

Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford has a .573 OPS, has struck out 21 times to five walks and hasn't stolen a base but has been caught twice. This is called a "bad start."
28

15

21

16.2

17.4

19.7

.474

.455

23.6%

6.8%

30.4%

-0.7%

-4.2%

You'd think the Diamondbacks' problem would be scoring, but no. Well, yes, but maybe more pressingly only the Mets, Rockies, and Brewers have given up more runs.
29

15

21

15.9

16.0

14.1

.424

.443

17.2%

52.8%

70.0%

-2.1%

-5.3%

The Angels bullpen has the fewest strikeouts (60) of any bullpen in baseball. Maybe Albert Pujols can help.
30

22

13

19.8

22.7

22.5

.621

.602

2.5%

4.9%

7.4%

-4.9%

-6.6%

As Bryce Harper crossed home plate after hitting his first major league home run, he stopped, put his head back, and double-pointed at himself. OK, he didn't really do any of that. But he should have.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
dodgerken222

I realize a lot of stats are beyond me, but the Dodgers are up by 6, and have the league's best record. How can the Giants have a 41% chance to make the playoffs and the Dodgers only 32%?

May 15, 2012 07:56 AM
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bradleyhaag

It's still early in the season, so the Playoff Odds formulas still contain some amount of pre-season projections in them.

Basically, the Giants were expected to be better than the Dodgers, and those expectations are factored in to the Playoff Odds.

May 15, 2012 08:11 AM
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HalfStreet

The playoff predictions are fun to read, but they are confusing. For instance, the Nats beat the Padres last night, causing the chance of playoffs in DC to drop 5% to little over 7%. Meanwhile, the second-to-last ranked Padres dropped only 1.2%, and at 12% are more likely to make the playoffs than the Nats.

Who else has a better chance than the 1st place Nationals? Why, the 13-21 Rockies, the 15-20 Brewers, and the 15-21 Diamondbacks all do. It's one reason I enjoy this feature happening daily. I know that those juggernauts can't plow past the Nationals THAT quickly, and I can enjoy my unworthy team being ranked higher just a little bit longer.

May 15, 2012 09:37 AM
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MikeJordan23

What scrap heap players on the Cardinals are above average players now? People just seem to say that, and rarely back it up with any names.

May 15, 2012 10:32 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Lance Berkman, who was awful with the Yankees and nobody wanted, is one. Carlos Beltran isn't scrap heap in the strict sense, but he was available to all at a very modest price. Rafael Furcal is hitting .370/.432/.500. Lance Lynn has a 1.81 ERA in 44.2 innings. Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook have been terrific at (again, relatively modest) prices.

I agree it's partly a reputation, but I think it's deserved.

May 15, 2012 11:49 AM
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