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Prospectus Hit List for May 14



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for May 11 Hit List for May 15
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Joey Votto hits only three home runs.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

23

12

25.1

25.6

25.4

.708

.724

82.0%

14.4%

96.5%

-0.4%

2.6%

What is more surprising, that Josh Hamilton is slugging .866 or that he has only 13 walks? Aren't we reaching the point where pitchers should walk Hamilton twice in each at-bat just in case?
2

20

14

23.5

24.6

23.8

.676

.658

69.9%

20.4%

90.3%

0.4%

0.2%

Lance Lynn lost! Lance Lynn lost! The spell is broken! The curse of Joel Pineiro is no more!
3

21

13

18.9

21.7

21.5

.611

.592

4.0%

8.3%

12.3%

-0.5%

0.4%

Edwin Jackson shouldn't feel too bad. He gave up only two of Joey Votto's three homers.
4

23

11

20.9

20.9

21.0

.630

.612

23.3%

6.8%

30.0%

0.0%

14.9%

Some teams can complain about having lots of important players on the disabled list but only the Dodgers can say they lost just one guy and also their entire offense.
5

22

13

20.8

19.4

18.7

.578

.558

35.8%

23.1%

58.8%

0.2%

0.0%

The Braves are on pace to score 875 runs, which used to not be all that much but now it is. Ah, how baseball has changed.
6

16

19

17.4

18.8

18.5

.505

.525

10.1%

8.7%

18.8%

-0.4%

-2.5%

Phil Humber got shelled again. Man, can that guy ever do anything right?
7

19

15

18.7

18.7

18.1

.548

.568

56.9%

24.5%

81.4%

-0.4%

6.1%

In his return to the mound, Andy Pettitte had a no-hitter through 3 2/3 innings and a no-winner through 6 1/3.
8

19

16

19.8

18.5

17.4

.534

.554

1.4%

4.7%

6.0%

-1.1%

-2.2%

Ricky Romero walked five Twins hitters. As walking five hitters has never been made into a t-shirt by Joe Maddon ("5 BB = 1 Win"), I'm fairly certain it's a bad idea.
9

21

14

18.5

18.3

18.1

.542

.562

17.2%

29.9%

47.1%

1.2%

-13.3%

It is not only possible, it is probable that Matt Joyce is the best hitter in the Rays lineup. That may or may not be good news.
10

22

13

19.1

18.2

17.4

.547

.567

0.6%

2.7%

3.3%

0.3%

-1.2%

At least some small portion of the Orioles' success this year is due to the return of Nick Markakis' power stroke. After dropping to .405 last season, Markakis's slugging percentage is up to .455. He has never had an isolated power higher than .200, and sits at .201.
11

15

19

17.2

17.6

16.7

.489

.509

23.9%

30.4%

54.4%

0.5%

8.5%

Red Sox starting pitching has allowed a total of six runs in the past three games. Think that might be a reason they've won all three? Nah, it was really that nobody was playing golf or eating chicken.
12

17

17

16.4

17.3

18.0

.505

.485

33.6%

8.5%

42.1%

-1.2%

-11.0%

Hector Sanchez has 61 plate appearances and one walk. He would like to apologize for the blemish on his record.
13

18

16

17.0

17.1

17.2

.509

.489

20.8%

20.1%

40.9%

1.1%

-4.9%

Seven innings of two-run ball lowered Carlos Zambrano's ERA to 1.88, causing the Cubs to ask the eternal question, "How come we can't have nice things?" Naw, just kidding, they're probably still happy to be rid of him.
14

15

20

16.0

17.0

19.3

.480

.461

24.4%

6.8%

31.2%

0.2%

-0.7%

Joe Saunders is a known quantity, like when you leave milk out overnight. After Saunders had a 1.24 ERA after five starts, it's reassuring to know, two starts later, that yes, he's still Joe Saunders.
15

16

20

17.1

16.9

16.5

.462

.482

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.1%

-1.0%

Kevin Millwood is on his sixth organization in four seasons. After Sunday's performance, Jack Zduriencik owes a Mother's Day card to the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Rockies, and Orioles.
16

18

16

15.3

16.7

15.4

.481

.501

26.4%

17.4%

43.8%

-1.2%

2.4%

Johnny Damon and his .159/.196/.227 line have led off in eight of the past nine games yet somehow the Indians have managed to go 4-5. It's almost as if it takes more than one guy to win or lose a... naahhh!
17

15

19

17.7

16.6

17.6

.492

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.0%

-0.0%

Has Carlos Lee been worth his contract? I'm not sure you'd get much argument in favor of that. Has Carlos Lee been worth a roster spot? Now that's worth arguing about.
18

16

19

16.9

16.4

17.5

.477

.457

36.2%

22.4%

58.6%

0.7%

-7.9%

Cole Hamels is so old-school he spent his suspension working as a haberdasher's apprentice.
19

15

20

16.0

16.0

14.3

.438

.458

17.9%

54.2%

72.1%

-0.4%

-8.4%

Since his home run six games ago, Albert Pujols is hitting .192/.222/.192. (Note: not funny unless you are a vindictive Cardinals fan.)
20

14

20

14.7

15.9

18.1

.461

.441

0.4%

2.0%

2.4%

0.0%

0.8%

The further we get from 2010, the more likely it is that Geovany Soto really is just a .155 hitter.
21

19

15

15.2

15.5

17.2

.492

.472

3.1%

5.4%

8.5%

-0.8%

1.2%

Reasons for optimism: Nieuwenhuis anagrams to 'nu-uh weinies.'
22

18

17

16.2

15.1

15.1

.460

.479

0.0%

0.8%

0.9%

-0.1%

-0.2%

On Sunday, five hitters in the A's lineup exited the day hitting under .200. But, good news, only two of them were hitting under .100 and only one of those was hitting second.
23

17

16

17.0

14.9

15.7

.488

.469

13.3%

31.5%

44.8%

-0.5%

4.3%

Things I would have lost all my money betting against: Bronson Arroyo has the best K/BB ratio (6.60) in the National League.
24

17

17

16.3

14.8

14.0

.457

.477

62.9%

10.9%

73.8%

1.9%

10.0%

Doug Fister has not wished his mother a happy mother's day. Doug Fister is still angry. Doug Fister's mom didn't give him her maiden name.
25

15

19

14.0

14.2

14.5

.424

.405

16.3%

36.4%

52.7%

-1.0%

4.4%

Now that Mat Gamel is on the Disabled List, someone is going to have to step up and not fulfill expectations.
26

13

20

14.0

13.6

13.4

.410

.429

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.4%

Things you don't want to hear as a Royals fan: Is Yuniesky Betancourt really out-hitting Alex Gordon? Yes. Yes he is.
27

12

23

13.9

13.5

15.1

.389

.370

9.9%

3.6%

13.6%

0.9%

-6.5%

The Padres' leading hitter, by OPS, is Mark Kotsay, who I'm pretty sure died several years ago.
28

16

18

14.1

13.1

14.3

.423

.404

0.1%

1.1%

1.2%

-0.1%

-0.3%

The Pirates need three more runs to reach 100 on the season. With 128 games left to go you have to give them at least a 50/50 shot.
29

13

20

14.9

12.6

13.5

.410

.391

8.7%

3.7%

12.5%

0.4%

5.1%

Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .258/.321/.395. There must be something toxic in the ink they use to sign big contracts.
30

10

24

10.3

11.4

11.6

.318

.335

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

-0.0%

-0.4%

Scott Diamond is interesting for two reasons. 1. He threw seven shutout innings for the second game in a row. 2. Scott Diamond is clearly a porn name.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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5 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

Love the Cole Hamels line. I must stand up for poor, poor Phillip Humber, though. He actually pitched decently yesterday, allowing only 8 base runners and 1 run in 6.2 innings. It was after he had exited the game that the Royals went apeshit. Addison Reed allowed 6 earned in .1 innings.

May 14, 2012 08:27 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks, R.A. I saw him get lit up by the Red Sox immediately after the perfecto and then again two starts after that by the Indians. But you are right. Humber was pretty good last night. My bad on that one. Not sure what I was looking at.

May 14, 2012 09:06 AM
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HalfStreet

The Daily Hit List is worth the cost of my BP subscription all by itself.

May 14, 2012 08:33 AM
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+6

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pobothecat

The White Sox bullpen is annoying the heck out of me. Please make fun of them immediately. Same for Miami. I want ridicule.

May 14, 2012 09:57 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

[taking notes] Would you like anything to drink with that?

May 14, 2012 10:42 AM
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