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Prospectus Hit List for April 13



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for April 12 Hit List for April 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Unsurprisingly, the team that has played the Pirates and Padres has the best record in baseball.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

3

4

2.9

2.9

2.2

.392

.411

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

0.0%

-96.8%

Your VORP leader for pitchers is [opens envelope] Brandon McCarthy of the A’s! Brandon couldn’t be here today because he’s attending The Awardies, the award show that awards awards to award shows.
2

4

2

4.0

3.1

3.0

.587

.607

0.9%

1.4%

2.4%

0.1%

-43.6%

At 4-2, the Blue Jays should be optimistic, if for no other reason than they achieved that record with Jose Bautista in a .174/.310/.304 slump.
3

4

4

3.6

3.2

3.2

.435

.455

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-40.4%

There is a non-zero chance that the value of Felix Hernandez’s next contract will be of greater value than the Mariners franchise itself.
4

2

4

2.4

1.4

0.9

.280

.264

16.4%

7.4%

23.8%

-0.7%

-31.9%

Closer Craig Kimbrel is tied for the fewest innings thrown in the Braves bullpen.
5

3

3

3.3

3.9

3.8

.583

.563

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-27.5%

If you’re a federal agent looking for a place to stash someone in the witness protection program, may I suggest the Astros starting rotation?
6

3

3

3.4

3.3

3.4

.551

.531

44.9%

9.6%

54.5%

3.9%

-21.2%

The Department of Redundancy Department would like to recognize Juan Pierre, who is hitting .214/.214/.214.
7

2

4

1.8

2.4

2.6

.368

.387

1.1%

0.2%

1.3%

0.7%

-20.4%

Justin Morneau's homer in Thursday's win was his first homer since May 2011.
8

1

4

1.5

1.9

1.5

.293

.309

17.3%

4.1%

21.4%

0.8%

-20.1%

Little-Known Fact No. 1: Johnny Damon has always wanted to play for the Indians. Little-Known Fact No. 2: Johnny Damon has always wanted to play for every team in baseball.
9

1

5

1.5

2.0

1.7

.258

.274

14.8%

14.6%

29.4%

0.3%

-19.8%

Jon Lester's two starts have produced the fifth-most VORP of any pitcher in baseball. He is 0-2. Pitcher wins are awesome.
10

2

4

2.7

2.5

2.4

.398

.379

3.9%

1.1%

5.1%

-0.2%

-18.5%

The Rockies have hit only three homers while giving up eight on the season. This means the balls from the humidor may have been mixed up with the balls from the reverse-humidor again.
11

2

5

3.4

3.3

3.5

.437

.418

0.4%

0.6%

1.0%

0.1%

-16.9%

In eight innings, Matt Garza gave up three hits. In three innings, Zack Greinke gave up eight runs. Symmetry is fun.
12

2

4

2.3

1.6

2.4

.347

.329

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.0%

-10.4%

The Pirates scored a single run in both the fifth and sixth innings of last night’s game. Those runs account for 18 percent of their season total. Unsurprisingly, they lost.
13

4

2

2.7

3.0

3.3

.544

.524

3.2%

1.8%

5.0%

-0.0%

-10.2%

Trying the “in bed” game on the Mets' record: the Mets are 4-2... in bed. Surprisingly, it kind of works.
14

2

5

2.5

2.4

2.8

.347

.329

9.2%

2.7%

11.9%

-1.1%

-9.2%

The truest test of a baseball fan: go to San Diego and chose between 1) some of the most beautiful beaches in the country and 2) the 2-5 Padres. If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance that, like me, you’d chose poorly.
15

3

3

3.3

3.4

3.1

.537

.557

0.4%

0.6%

1.0%

-0.1%

-6.9%

Nothing says "24-hour nap" like losing three in a row to the Yankees.
16

6

1

4.7

4.9

5.0

.735

.719

9.6%

2.2%

11.8%

-0.5%

-6.4%

At 6-1 the Dodgers have the best record in baseball. How? Magic.
17

3

3

3.4

3.6

3.8

.572

.591

0.3%

0.1%

0.4%

0.0%

-5.7%

The Royals bullpen sports a 1.85 ERA, the lowest in the American League, and that’s even without Joakim… what was his name again? Phoenix?
18

2

5

2.7

2.1

2.6

.335

.317

25.9%

9.9%

35.8%

-0.4%

1.1%

It's unclear if the Marlins' 2-5 record is in any way a product of embarrassment over loud uniform colors.
19

3

2

2.6

2.5

2.6

.533

.553

9.9%

3.1%

13.0%

-1.8%

1.7%

White Sox baseball as ice cream. Under Robin Ventura: Vanilla, maybe with chocolate sprinkles (never rainbow). Under Ozzie Guillen: Chicken ice cream with saliva and a ribbon of motor oil.
20

5

2

4.9

5.2

4.9

.715

.699

9.6%

5.0%

14.6%

-1.0%

6.7%

If the Nationals compete for the wild card, they will likely be carried by their pitching. That’s why the fact that Washington has the second-lowest ERA in baseball is encouraging.
21

3

4

2.5

2.3

2.9

.384

.365

12.5%

13.7%

26.1%

-0.3%

13.5%

When a defense-first shortstop like Zack Cozart hits .455/.520/.864 to start the season, it should be cause for a good old-fashioned pizza party. Like a good old-fashioned pizza party ever needed a reason.
22

4

2

3.0

3.7

4.0

.612

.630

21.7%

22.8%

44.4%

-0.2%

17.8%

Last Sunday, Bobby Valentine put Nick Punto in the leadoff position. Punto responded by going 3-for-6, helping the Red Sox to score 12 runs (they lost anyway). Yesterday, Joe Maddon put Jeff Keppinger in the cleanup spot. Keppinger responded by going 0-5 and leaving seven runners on base while the Rays managed two runs. Proof that sometimes doing the wrong thing doesn’t work.
23

4

3

2.7

2.4

2.4

.411

.392

21.2%

20.0%

41.2%

-2.0%

21.5%

Zack Greinke has reportedly broken off talks with Milwaukee on a contract extension. If he’s thinking of leaving because he’s unsatisfied with the quality of locally available sandwiches, the rest of the world holds a rude awakening.
24

5

1

3.7

4.0

4.5

.719

.703

32.2%

6.1%

38.3%

1.1%

21.6%

The U.S. Department of Sample Sizes would like to remind you that Albert Pujols is slugging .333, while Willie Bloomquist and Lyle Overbay are slugging .500 and 1.143, respectively.
25

2

4

2.7

2.9

2.5

.422

.402

45.1%

5.9%

51.0%

0.3%

27.4%

One of these years Brandon Belt will push Aubrey Huff’s desiccated corpse off of first base. Belt’s reign will last one week before he is replaced by Miguel Tejada.
26

5

1

4.6

4.3

4.5

.767

.781

71.5%

2.9%

74.4%

0.3%

38.6%

After Detroit beat up on Josh Beckett, Matt Moore, and Clay Buchholz, maybe Jeff Niemann isn’t so much of a challenge.
27

2

4

3.0

2.2

1.4

.356

.374

31.8%

21.3%

53.1%

0.5%

50.4%

The Angels gave up 10 runs to the Twins, who had scored 12 runs in the previous five games. That’s probably too much.
28

5

2

5.2

5.7

5.8

.772

.758

65.8%

13.7%

79.5%

0.8%

60.5%

As a team, the Cardinals are slugging .514. That’s 10 points higher than the Pirates team OPS.
29

3

3

3.1

3.0

3.0

.505

.525

62.2%

14.8%

77.0%

0.7%

66.5%

C.C. Sabathia may have a 6.75 ERA but he’s struck out 15 in just 12 innings. His stuff is fine. Can we all get back to talking about whom Alex Rodriguez is dating now?
30

5

2

5.0

5.0

4.8

.710

.726

67.9%

13.7%

81.6%

-1.4%

78.6%

The Rangers are 5-2 after yesterday’s win over Seattle. The impressive part is they’ve done it without Mike Napoli (.077 batting average), Nelson Cruz (.160), or Adrian Beltre (.231) doing anything.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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