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Cubs Team Audit page | Cubs PECOTA card page


Last Team Totals Update: 02-17    Dates reflect only changes to playing time, not PECOTA changes.

Record: 91-71
Runs Scored: 765
Runs Allowed: 667
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .249/.326/.418 (.267)
Total WARP: 42.5 (15.6 pitching, 26.9 non-pitching, including -0.0 from pitchers)

Position Players

Last Position Player Update: 01-01  Display By Fielding Position Display By Batting Order

Player Position Summary

Albert Almora: CF 30% (193 PA), PH 5% (14 PA)
Javier Baez: 2B 20% (133 PA), 3B 20% (133 PA), SS 15% (102 PA), PH 25% (70 PA)
Kris Bryant: 3B 70% (499 PA), LF 10% (71 PA), 1B 5% (36 PA)
Jeimer Candelario: 3B 10% (63 PA), 1B 5% (32 PA), PH 10% (28 PA)
Victor Caratini: C 5% (32 PA)
Willson Contreras: C 75% (516 PA)
Jason Heyward: RF 90% (608 PA)
Jon Jay: CF 65% (437 PA)
Tommy La Stella: PH 30% (84 PA), 2B 10% (68 PA)
Miguel Montero: C 20% (136 PA), PH 10% (28 PA)
Anthony Rizzo: 1B 90% (657 PA)
Addison Russell: SS 85% (597 PA)
Kyle Schwarber: LF 80% (597 PA)
Matt Szczur: PH 20% (56 PA), RF 5% (33 PA), CF 5% (32 PA)
Ben Zobrist: 2B 70% (535 PA), LF 10% (73 PA), RF 5% (37 PA)

Pitchers

Last Pitcher Update: 02-17

Pos Name IP GS QS ERA WHIP BABIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP WARP
Sta-1 Jon Lester 203 29 17 3.53 1.15 .288 176 60 23 209 13 8 0 29.0 3.2
Sta-2 Jake Arrieta 201 30 17 3.58 1.15 .275 163 73 20 204 13 8 0 27.3 3.0
Sta-3 John Lackey 194 29 15 4.02 1.21 .283 176 62 25 179 13 10 0 16.6 1.8
Sta-4 Kyle Hendricks 165 29 16 3.76 1.17 .284 149 48 18 147 11 9 0 19.1 2.1
Sta-5 Mike Montgomery 118 19 10 4.18 1.33 .290 113 46 12 96 8 7 0 7.9 0.9
Spot Brett Anderson 58 11 5 4.40 1.40 .298 61 19 7 43 4 4 0 2.6 0.3
Spot Aaron Brooks 26 5 3 4.10 1.33 .297 28 7 3 20 2 2 0 2.0 0.2
Spot Pierce Johnson 10 2 1 4.55 1.43 .294 9 5 1 8 1 1 0 0.3 0.0
Spot Eddie Butler 25 5 2 4.62 1.34 .291 26 9 3 15 2 2 0 0.4 0.0
Spot Alec Mills 15 3 2 4.01 1.30 .295 15 5 2 12 1 1 0 1.3 0.1
Closer Wade Davis 53 0 0 3.05 1.18 .290 43 20 6 65 3 2 41 7.9 0.9
Setup Koji Uehara 40 0 0 3.34 1.07 .279 32 12 6 47 2 2 3 4.9 0.5
Setup Hector Rondon 53 0 0 3.87 1.22 .288 50 16 7 54 3 2 2 3.9 0.4
Mid Pedro Strop 44 0 0 3.42 1.17 .281 35 18 5 52 2 2 0 5.1 0.6
Mid Felix Pena 27 0 0 3.84 1.29 .290 24 11 3 25 1 1 0 2.1 0.2
Mid Jake Buchanan 22 0 0 3.98 1.35 .294 22 8 2 14 1 1 0 1.4 0.2
Mid Justin Grimm 49 0 0 3.38 1.30 .296 42 21 4 54 2 2 0 5.7 0.6
Mid Jack Leathersich 13 0 0 4.74 1.54 .304 13 6 2 13 1 1 0 0.0 0.0
Mid Carl Edwards Jr 49 0 0 3.48 1.20 .274 37 23 4 54 2 2 0 5.2 0.6
Mid Caleb Smith 22 0 0 5.06 1.46 .291 22 10 3 16 1 1 0 -0.4 0.0
Mid Rob Zastryzny 13 0 0 4.26 1.39 .293 13 6 1 10 1 1 0 0.6 0.1
Long Brian Duensing 40 0 0 5.17 1.47 .296 43 16 6 28 2 2 0 -1.3 -0.1

Your comments and suggested changes are appreciated! Click here to send comments or depth chart changes.



5 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

OnTilt
(42149)

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a>? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> and .440 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a> in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Well that was obnoxious with your site attempting to embed links. Here it without those keywords.

One of the best fielding teams ever suddenly goes to -6.8 FR-AA? This with probably more starts from Baez and Almora, who are both at least plus in the field?

I'm guessing the projected fielding value for Contreras is very bad given that .343 On Base and .440 Slugging in 516 plate appearences for a catcher has to have a ton of value, as evident by his TAV higher than Zobrist. I mean, how does Montero have a higher WA-RP with poorer hitting in 1/4th the plate appearences? Contreras' fielding must be terrible, but given his positive value there last year and what we saw on the field last year, that's very hard to swallow.

*I have since looked it up on his player card. Contreras with a -9 FR-AA? So he'll be one of the worst defensive catchers in the league? Your own metric had him at +3.6 last year in half the time. That doesn't pass the smell test.

*Regression for Russell and Baez as well in FR-AA?

Also, given they had significantly valuable fielders in RF, 1B and SS last year (not even including Baez), how negative are the fielding values for all the other positions (including Baez) to make this a below average fielding team?

Feb 07, 2017 07:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

Hi there - thanks for the feedback!

I found a typo in the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FRAA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FRAA</span></a> code for catchers, and Contreras wasn't using the most recent projections. Correcting for that added about 13 runs to his projected FRAA. re: his apparent decline - his minor-league values were pretty bad - see 2015 in Tennessee and 2016 in Iowa.

The rest of the Cubs have decent FRAA projections.

Feb 07, 2017 08:40 AM
 
OnTilt
(42149)

Thanks, glad I could help.

I understand that he had some poor fielding numbers in the minors and, even though his fielding seemed to be very good now that he's worked at it, it will take some time for that to flow through to a quantitative method like this since it needs to show up in the data.

When you said it added 13 runs to his FR-AA did you mean it went up from -21 to -8? Or is it going up from -8 to +5? His player card still shows -8 for his 2017 projection.

Feb 07, 2017 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff
(12136)

-21 to -8. He's still projecting as being bad at framing, though that could change.

Feb 07, 2017 09:17 AM
 
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