Biographical

Portrait of Neftali Soto

Neftali Soto 1BReds

Reds Player Cards | Reds Team Audit | Reds Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 25)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .237 10 27 33 1 .250 0.2
Birth Date2-28-1989
Height6' 1"
Weight215 lbs
Age25 years, 7 months, 23 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
-0.42013
-0.32014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2013 CIN 24 13 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .077 .000 .022 -3.3 -0.1 -0.4
2014 CIN 25 21 31 30 1 3 1 0 0 4 0 8 0 1 0 1 1 0 .100 .097 .133 .100 -4.5 -0.2 -0.5
Career344442131004014110110.071.091.095.077-7.8-0.3-0.9

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2007 RDS Rk 40 167 .284 .262 .343 .372 .266 .367 96 4.8 5.3 1.4 -0.7 -0.9 11.7 1.0 11.7 1.0
2008 DYT A 52 233 .300 .250 .323 .368 .260 .366 98 10.4 7.1 -1.2 0.6 -2.3 14.4 1.6 14.4 1.6
2008 BIL Rk 15 71 .384 .270 .349 .429 .275 .415 93 10.3 2.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 11.0 1.0 11.0 1.0
2009 SAR A+ 131 537 .238 .246 .318 .354 .250 .284 96 -12.3 15.5 -1.1 1.0 -6.7 -6.9 -0.6 -6.9 -0.6
2010 LYN A+ 134 565 .265 .262 .333 .386 .253 .301 105 3.2 16.4 -8.3 -5.2 -3.4 4.0 -0.1 4.0 -0.1
2011 CAR AA 102 414 .287 .265 .334 .402 .254 .286 114 12.6 12.2 -7.7 1.7 -0.2 15.4 1.7 15.4 1.7
2011 LOU AAA 4 18 .356 .258 .332 .365 .246 .429 93 2 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.3 2.6 0.3
2012 LOU AAA 122 512 .233 .253 .322 .386 .250 .298 105 -15.6 15.2 -9.7 12.6 -5.6 -11.4 0.1 -11.4 0.1
2012 SAN Wnt 36 144 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .269 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 CIN MLB 13 13 .022 .230 .313 .332 .245 .000 102 -3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -3.3 -0.4 -3.3 -0.4
2013 LOU AAA 118 495 .247 .251 .323 .376 .250 .317 101 -6.9 14.2 -2 0.7 -2.8 2.0 0.3 2.0 0.3
2014 CIN MLB 21 31 .100 .257 .317 .374 .262 .130 98 -4.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -4.5 -0.5 -4.5 -0.5
2014 LOU AAA 75 303 .250 .265 .327 .399 .250 .345 106 -3.5 9.1 -2.5 0.6 -4.3 -1.9 -0.1 -1.9 -0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2007 RDS Rk 167 18 46 7 5 2 28 11 31 2 0 .303 .355 .454 .151 .284 11.7 -0.7 1.0
2008 BIL Rk 71 12 26 10 1 4 11 4 10 1 0 .388 .423 .746 .358 .384 11.0 -0.8 1.0
2008 DYT A 233 26 71 15 1 7 36 7 36 1 1 .326 .352 .500 .174 .300 14.4 0.6 1.6
2009 SAR A+ 537 53 125 21 2 11 57 23 95 1 3 .248 .283 .362 .115 .238 -6.9 1.0 -0.6
2010 LYN A+ 565 73 140 33 2 21 73 32 105 0 0 .268 .320 .460 .192 .265 4.0 -5.2 -0.1
2011 LOU AAA 18 1 7 0 0 1 4 1 2 0 0 .412 .444 .588 .176 .356 2.6 0.2 0.3
2011 CAR AA 414 70 103 19 3 30 76 25 96 0 1 .272 .329 .575 .303 .287 15.4 1.7 1.7
2012 LOU AAA 512 55 114 30 0 14 59 41 116 2 1 .245 .312 .400 .155 .233 -11.4 12.6 0.1
2012 SAN Wnt 144 14 29 3 1 4 8 10 36 0 2 .218 .278 .346 .128 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 LOU AAA 495 54 125 21 0 15 61 26 103 3 1 .271 .313 .414 .143 .247 2.0 0.7 0.3
2013 CIN MLB 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .000 .077 .000 .000 .022 -3.3 -0.1 -0.4
2014 LOU AAA 303 27 84 23 0 2 34 21 41 0 0 .302 .350 .406 .104 .250 -1.9 0.6 -0.1
2014 CIN MLB 31 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 8 1 0 .100 .097 .133 .033 .100 -4.5 -0.2 -0.5

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2013 35 0.4286 0.7143 0.6800 0.8000 0.6500 0.8333 0.5385 0.3200
2014 122 0.4836 0.6557 0.8000 0.8644 0.4603 0.8235 0.7586 0.2000
Career1570.47130.66880.77320.850.50260.82570.70950.2268

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-04-04 2013-04-11 Minors 7 0 Left Thigh Strain Quadriceps - -
2012-06-12 2012-06-29 Minors 17 16 - Low Back Strain - -
2011-04-19 2011-05-21 Minors 32 0 Left Wrist Fracture -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 CIN $500,000
2013 CIN $
2012 CIN $
YearsDescriptionSalary
2011Current$500,000
1 yrTotal$500,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 36 d1 year/$0.5M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.5M (2014). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/14.
  • 1 year (2013). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by Cincinnati 11/18/11. Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/12.
  • Drafted 2007 (3-109) (Colegio Marista HS, Manati, PR). $0.279M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 513 64 131 25 0 23 72 30 123 1 1 .277 .324 .474 .285 18.8 1B 2, 3B 0 2.3
80o 492 59 120 23 0 21 66 27 121 1 1 .262 .308 .449 .272 11.4 1B 2, 3B 0 1.5
70o 476 55 111 21 0 19 62 25 119 1 1 .252 .296 .431 .262 6.5 1B 2, 3B 0 0.9
60o 463 52 104 20 0 18 58 24 117 1 0 .243 .287 .416 .253 2.5 1B 2, 3B 0 0.5
50o 450 49 98 19 0 17 55 23 116 1 0 .235 .278 .402 .245 -1.0 1B 2, 3B 0 0.1
40o 437 46 93 18 0 16 52 21 114 1 0 .227 .269 .388 .237 -4.4 1B 2, 3B 0 -0.3
30o 424 43 87 17 0 15 49 20 112 1 0 .218 .259 .373 .228 -7.7 1B 2, 3B 0 -0.7
20o 408 40 80 15 0 14 46 18 110 1 0 .208 .247 .356 .218 -11.4 1B 2, 3B 0 -1.1
10o 387 35 71 14 0 12 41 16 106 1 0 .194 .232 .332 .204 -15.9 1B 2, 3B 0 -1.6
Weighted Mean4565010019017572311710.239.282.409.2490.61B 2, 3B 00.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
10% 22% 12% 26% 38%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
2015262502954100103112631.230.272.396.2440.20.9-0.6-2.510.9-6.91.2
2016272773158110103311721.226.262.385.236-0.2-3.0-0.6-2.814.9-14.61.3
201728620751372612581291571.236.278.415.2510.51.8-1.5-6.214.9-5.53.0
201829611731332512579311560.233.277.409.2480.40.4-1.6-6.114.9-6.92.9
201930634751372512581321590.232.276.404.2470.2-0.8-1.6-6.314.9-7.83.1
202031620721312412477311550.225.270.392.241-0.1-4.2-1.6-6.214.9-11.43.0
202132639761412512479351520.237.285.403.2500.51.1-1.6-6.414.9-5.93.1
202233612731342412377321450.237.282.406.2500.41.0-1.6-6.114.9-6.23.0
202334626761422512379351440.246.294.413.2570.95.5-1.6-6.214.9-1.63.0

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
1.6out of baseball12.1out of baseball0.34.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 81)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 91 Russ Canzler 2011 .357
2 91 Danny Valencia 2010 .261
3 90 Leonard Davis 2009 .000 DNP
4 89 Luke Hughes 2010 .309
5 89 Matthew Brown 2008 .090
6 89 Cody Overbeck 2011 .000 DNP
7 88 Brandon Laird 2013 .219
8 87 Marquez Smith 2010 .000 DNP
9 86 Joel Guzman 2010 .000 DNP
10 86 Bradley Suttle 2011 .000 DNP
11 85 Josh Bell 2012 .166
12 85 Jesus Guzman 2009 .151
13 84 Mike Costanzo 2009 .000 DNP
14 84 Jamie Romak 2011 .000 DNP
15 84 Kevin Kouzmanoff 2007 .282
16 84 Tommy Mendonca 2013 .000 DNP
17 84 Chris Dominguez 2012 .000 DNP
18 84 Wes Hodges 2010 .000 DNP
19 84 Michael Walker 2013 .000 DNP
20 84 Brandon Wood 2010 .156
21 84 Matt Mangini 2011 .000 DNP
22 83 Luis Jimenez 2013 .240
23 83 Zach Lutz 2011 .000 DNP
24 82 Chris Johnson 2010 .296
25 82 Brian Dopirak 2009 .000 DNP
26 82 Scott Moore 2009 .000 DNP
27 82 Mat Gamel 2011 .097
28 82 Jake Fox 2008 .000 DNP
29 81 Carlos Rivero 2013 .000 DNP
30 81 Kyle Reynolds 2009 .000 DNP
31 81 Cody Puckett 2012 .000 DNP
32 81 Mark Trumbo 2011 .274
33 81 Chad Tracy 2011 .000 DNP
34 81 Dennis Raben 2013 .000 DNP
35 81 Shawn Bowman 2010 .000 DNP
36 81 Michael Hernandez 2009 .000 DNP
37 81 Tyler Townsend 2013 .000 DNP
38 81 John Mayberry 2009 .228
39 80 Brandon Waring 2011 .000 DNP
40 80 Nate Tenbrink 2012 .000 DNP
41 80 Josh Kroeger 2008 .000 DNP
42 80 Roger Kieschnick 2012 .000 DNP
43 80 David Winfree 2011 .000 DNP
44 80 Kent Matthes 2012 .000 DNP
45 80 Aaron Baker 2013 .000 DNP
46 80 Ryan Goleski 2007 .000 DNP
47 80 Ronnie Welty 2013 .000 DNP
48 80 Ryan Fisher 2013 .000 DNP
49 79 Kiel Roling 2012 .000 DNP
50 79 Matthew Spencer 2011 .000 DNP
51 79 Matt Esquivel 2008 .000 DNP
52 79 Michael Bianucci 2011 .000 DNP
53 79 Mark Hamilton 2010 .142
54 79 Brad Glenn 2012 .000 DNP
55 79 Brett Carroll 2008 .103
56 79 Brandon Burgess 2008 .000 DNP
57 79 Welington Castillo 2012 .271
58 79 Jairo Perez 2013 .000 DNP
59 79 Todd Frazier 2011 .273
60 79 Justin Bloxom 2013 .000 DNP
61 79 Tyler Moore 2012 .273
62 79 Gabriel Martinez 2008 .000 DNP
63 79 Blake Smith 2013 .000 DNP
64 79 Thomas Giles 2009 .000 DNP
65 79 Brandon Snyder 2012 .255
66 79 Ryan Adams 2012 .000 DNP
67 79 Brock Peterson 2009 .000 DNP
68 79 Scott Cousins 2010 .270
69 78 Kyle Roller 2013 .000 DNP
70 78 J.P. Arencibia 2011 .254
71 78 Justin Bour 2013 .000 DNP
72 78 Matt Clark 2012 .000 DNP
73 78 Ryan Mount 2012 .000 DNP
74 78 Scott Van Slyke 2012 .188
75 78 Rhyne Hughes 2009 .000 DNP
76 78 Ryan Flaherty 2012 .222
77 78 Mark Shorey 2010 .000 DNP
78 78 Derrick Mitchell 2012 .000 DNP
79 78 Seth Loman 2011 .000 DNP
80 78 Erik Lis 2009 .000 DNP
81 78 Daniel Dorn 2010 .000 DNP
82 78 Jon Gaston 2012 .000 DNP
83 78 Brian Mc Fall 2009 .000 DNP
84 78 Adam Abraham 2012 .000 DNP
85 78 Grant Psomas 2008 .000 DNP
86 78 David Freese 2008 .000 DNP
87 78 Bryan LaHair 2008 .224
88 78 Mark Fleisher 2009 .000 DNP
89 78 Eduardo Perez 2010 .000 DNP
90 78 Marvin Lowrance 2010 .000 DNP
91 78 Cody Decker 2012 .000 DNP
92 78 Evan Gattis 2012 .000 DNP
93 78 Ryan Schimpf 2013 .000 DNP
94 77 Caleb Stewart 2007 .000 DNP
95 77 Juan Francisco 2012 .241
96 77 Chris Lubanski 2010 .000 DNP
97 77 Brady Shoemaker 2012 .000 DNP
98 77 Steven Hill 2010 .624
99 77 Alex Castellanos 2012 .216
100 77 Ryan Finan 2007 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .000 .000 .000 .009
11 vs R (Multi) .000 .167 .000 .036
18 Split (Multi) .000 .167 .000 .027
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.013 -.023 -.037 -.020
30 vs L (2013) .000 .000 .000 .009
31 vs R (2013) .000 .167 .000 .036
38 Split (2013) .000 .167 .000 .027
39 LgAvg (2013) -.011 -.021 -.036 -.019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 A third-round pick in 2007, Soto has been slow to develop. The trouble is plate discipline. Last year marked the first time in four full minor-league seasons that he drew more than 32 walks. He is strong, has good bat speed, and can drive the ball to all fields, although the power went into hiding last year—especially down the stretch, when he hit just one home run over his final 35 games. Soto has a strong arm but does little else in the field and is strictly a first baseman. Getting out from under Votto's shadow would help, as would an improved approach at the plate.
2012 A broken bone in his wrist in April cost Soto a month and a shot at winning the minor-league home run title, but once he was back in action and in gear, he crushed 26 homers while slugging at a .642 clip, all as a 22-year-old making the leap to Double-A. That sort of production should silence concerns over his prospect status as a first baseman, even as he approaches the one stumbling block he can't hulk-smash out of existence: Joey Votto. A strong arm has led to experiments behind the plate; he'd be a bit chunky for an outfield corner, but if the Reds were willing to try to make Yonder Alonso an outfielder, you can't rule out they might try it with Soto. He's already on the 40-man, and if he keeps crushing pitches at this pace in Triple-A, it's going to be hard not to want to take a peek at some point.
2011 Neftali Soto's second offensive attempt at High-A was more successful, but a defensive migration across the diamond raised the bar for his bat. Although he spent most of his time at first base, the 2007 third-rounder did try his hand at 10 games behind the plate, where he could prove to be very valuable.
2010 Despite a strong arm, Neftali Soto is an offense-first third baseman who will go only as far as his bat takes him, which makes his awful showing at High-A last year, due somewhat to poor conditioning, particularly troubling.
2009 A third-round pick in 2007 out of Puerto Rico, Soto mashed four home runs in his first six Pioneer League games and was quickly moved to a full-season affiliate at Low-A Dayton, where he continued to impress with his bat. Soto has two tools, a power bat and a cannon for an arm. He's also a big-bodied kid who is already a well below-average runner, and most think that he's bound for first base or a corner outfield slot at best, with the hope that his bat will be sufficiently juicy that he can meet the higher offensive demands of those positions.

BP Articles

Neftali Soto is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDeep Impact: Week 15Ben Carsley2014-07-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: The Other Guys, Part TwoMike Gianella2013-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 3, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-03
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 24, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-24
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 21, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, April 29Zach Mortimer2013-04-30
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Spring Training Games: February 22-24Jason Martinez2013-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of December 7-9Jason Martinez2012-12-10
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 18Kevin Goldstein2012-04-19
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Cincinnati Reds Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2012-01-17
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cincinnati RedsKevin Goldstein2011-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cincinnati RedsSteven Goldman2011-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Cincinnati RedsESPN Insider2011-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 29Kevin Goldstein2011-08-30
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday-Morning Ten-Pack for 8/29/11Kevin Goldstein2011-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Second-Half SurgesKevin Goldstein2011-08-25
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 23Kevin Goldstein2011-08-24
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 3Kevin Goldstein2011-08-04
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August1Kevin Goldstein2011-08-02
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of July 28Kevin Goldstein2011-07-29
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of July 20Kevin Goldstein2011-07-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of July 5Kevin Goldstein2011-07-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of May 4Kevin Goldstein2010-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Ten PackKevin Goldstein2010-05-03
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Future Top Dogs, NLKevin Goldstein2010-03-17
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Future Top Dogs, NLKevin Goldstein2009-04-08
Prospectus Q&A: Gary MayseDavid Laurila2009-02-08
This article requires BP Premium accessCaribbean Series 2009: PreviewDerek Jacques2009-02-02
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Reds Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2008-11-13
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Who are the Next Rays? NL VersionKevin Goldstein2008-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Ten PackKevin Goldstein2008-06-23
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: State of the Systems, NL CentralKevin Goldstein2008-03-25
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Reds Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2008-01-18


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2011-07-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Neftali Soto's power allow him to become an every day big leaguer? Or is he going to be a free swinging power guy (95 K/344 BB career) and fizzle?
(Chris from Ohio)
Well, you clearly see the problem yourself there, and he's a first-base only player. The power is very very real, however, which gives him a shot to overcome his weaknesses. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-08-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Kevin, I was hoping you might be able to tell me what the scouts are saying about Neftali Soto, he seems to be tearing it up for Dayton?
(Shane from Miami, OH)
Bat is very real. Cannon for an arm. Not a shortstop in the end, but still a very real prospect. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Kevin, What are your thoughts for Neftali Soto long-term, does he stick at 3B? How impressive has been thus far?
(Jason from Cincy)
He's been crazy impressive. I was able to recently speak to a scout who saw him at Dayton and he said he just really stood out on that team. The bat is outstanding, he has good power potential, but he does need to improve defensively. That said, on a tools level, he fits well at 3rd, because the arm is outstanding. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-04-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)i do not see any stats for a group of Puerto Rican prospects who all got drafted last year - Angel Morales, Neftali Soto,Emmanuel Quiles and Reynaldo Navarro - is there some kind of visa issue or something else that is stopping these guys from playing?
(straymond from toronto )
Um. They're from Puerto Rico -- they're full U.S. citizens. They're also all very young and a bit raw, so they're being held beck for short-season leagues. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

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