Biographical

Portrait of Carl Pavano

Carl Pavano PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 38)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
35.0 4.51 1.34 20 2 2 0 0.0
Birth Date1-8-1976
Height6' 5"
Weight265 lbs
Age38 years, 9 months, 13 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.22010
1.62011
-0.12012
2013
0.02014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
1998 MON 22 24 23 134.7 132.7 2.0 6 9 0 0 12 1 580 130 70 63 18 219 43 42 8 83 4.21 4.71 5.24 1.6 -0.1
1999 MON 23 19 18 104.0 103.0 1.0 6 8 0 0 9 0 457 117 66 65 8 165 35 34 4 70 5.62 3.85 4.85 13.0 1.5
2000 MON 24 15 15 97.0 97.0 0.0 8 4 0 0 11 0 408 89 40 33 8 139 34 33 8 64 3.06 4.11 4.78 10.0 1.0
2001 MON 25 8 8 42.7 42.7 0.0 1 6 0 0 5 0 199 59 33 30 7 88 16 15 2 36 6.33 4.72 5.16 1.8 0.1
2002 FLO 26 22 8 61.7 41.0 20.7 3 2 0 0 4 0 269 76 33 26 5 102 14 11 3 41 3.79 3.43 3.89 10.2 1.0
2002 MON 26 15 14 74.3 73.7 0.7 3 8 0 0 4 3 350 98 55 52 14 164 31 26 7 51 6.30 5.49 5.37 6.2 0.6
2003 FLO 27 33 32 201.0 199.0 2.0 12 13 0 0 21 0 846 204 99 96 19 321 49 39 7 133 4.30 3.71 4.06 30.9 3.1
2004 FLO 28 31 31 222.3 222.3 0.0 18 8 0 0 23 3 909 212 80 74 16 316 49 36 11 139 3.00 3.45 4.38 21.3 2.1
2005 NYA 29 17 17 100.0 100.0 0.0 4 6 0 0 8 1 442 129 66 53 17 210 18 17 8 56 4.77 4.92 5.67 0.9 -0.1
2007 NYA 31 2 2 11.3 11.3 0.0 1 0 0 0 1 0 46 12 7 6 1 18 2 2 0 4 4.76 4.28 4.42 1.3 0.1
2008 NYA 32 7 7 34.3 34.3 0.0 4 2 0 0 1 0 154 41 23 22 5 64 10 10 4 15 5.77 5.41 6.24 -1.1 -0.1
2009 CLE 33 21 21 125.7 125.7 0.0 9 8 0 0 11 1 534 150 80 75 19 241 23 23 3 88 5.37 4.33 5.06 15.0 1.4
2009 MIN 33 12 12 73.7 73.7 0.0 5 4 0 0 7 0 320 85 39 38 7 132 16 15 3 59 4.64 3.55 4.00 15.8 1.6
2010 MIN 34 32 32 221.0 221.0 0.0 17 11 0 0 21 1 906 227 95 92 24 356 37 35 6 117 3.75 3.98 4.96 14.8 1.2
2011 MIN 35 33 33 222.0 222.0 0.0 9 13 0 0 18 3 955 262 123 106 23 398 40 40 8 102 4.30 4.14 4.69 13.7 1.6
2012 MIN 36 11 11 63.0 63.0 0.0 2 5 0 0 4 0 268 80 46 42 9 130 8 6 2 33 6.00 4.33 5.64 -0.4 -0.1
Career3022841788.71762.326.310810700160137643197195587320030634253848410914.394.124.80154.914.9

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
1995 GRL A 22 22 141.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996 TRN AA 27 26 185.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1997 PAW AAA 23 23 161.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .292 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1998 MON MLB 24 23 134.7 5.24 77 .263 .260 .324 .406 .256 .262 93 1.2 0.1 1.6 -0.1
1998 JUP A+ 4 4 15.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1998 OTT AAA 3 3 18.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1999 MON MLB 19 18 104.0 4.85 101 .256 .270 .344 .426 .263 .321 98 12.6 1.2 13.0 1.5
1999 OTT AAA 2 2 5.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000 MON MLB 15 15 97.0 4.78 100 .242 .260 .334 .421 .256 .276 95 9.1 0.8 10.0 1.0
2001 MON MLB 8 8 42.7 5.16 87 .311 .259 .317 .418 .259 .377 96 2.7 0.3 1.8 0.1
2001 JUP A+ 3 3 12.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 OTT AAA 4 4 27.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 FLO MLB 22 8 61.7 3.89 113 .271 .262 .325 .412 .259 .345 99 10.5 1.1 10.2 1.0
2002 MON MLB 15 14 74.3 5.37 82 .305 .253 .321 .399 .254 .340 101 4.2 0.4 6.2 0.6
2002 OTT AAA 3 3 20.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .304 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 FLO MLB 33 32 201.0 4.06 109 .248 .258 .326 .413 .257 .290 97 29.9 3.0 30.9 3.1
2004 FLO MLB 31 31 222.3 4.38 99 .235 .261 .326 .418 .258 .282 92 16.0 1.6 21.3 2.1
2005 NYA MLB 17 17 100.0 5.67 82 .294 .263 .327 .421 .261 .327 101 1.9 0.2 0.9 -0.1
2005 TAM A+ 1 1 6.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -1.250 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 TAM A+ 3 3 11.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .250 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 TRN AA 3 3 11.2 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .214 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 COH AAA 1 1 6.2 2.91 133 .272 .256 .340 .383 .261 .471 101 1.4 0.1 1.4 0.1
2007 NYA MLB 2 2 11.3 4.42 104 .235 .262 .324 .400 .256 .282 95 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1
2008 NYA MLB 7 7 34.3 6.24 72 .294 .273 .340 .434 .270 .300 103 -1.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1
2008 CSC A 2 2 5.0 2.42 148 .252 .257 .332 .374 .250 .429 105 2.3 0.2 2.3 0.2
2008 TRN AA 3 3 14.0 4.40 101 .268 .267 .343 .410 .259 .289 95 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1
2009 CLE MLB 21 21 125.7 5.06 97 .270 .265 .334 .426 .260 .327 103 14.9 1.5 15.0 1.4
2009 MIN MLB 12 12 73.7 4.00 120 .257 .265 .327 .414 .255 .332 104 15.8 1.6 15.8 1.6
2010 MIN MLB 32 32 221.0 4.96 97 .240 .262 .327 .408 .257 .281 108 13.7 1.4 14.8 1.2
2011 MIN MLB 33 33 222.0 4.69 98 .273 .260 .321 .403 .259 .306 103 13.9 1.5 13.7 1.6
2012 MIN MLB 11 11 63.0 5.64 76 .288 .260 .324 .419 .267 .329 103 -0.3 -0.0 -0.4 -0.1
2012 FTM A+ 2 2 5.0 5.23 87 .214 .270 .337 .409 .270 .200 97 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
1995 GRL A 6 6 0 22 22 141.3 118 52 138 7 0% .000 7.5 3.3 0.4 8.8 1.20 3.44 0.0 0.0
1996 TRN AA 16 5 0 27 26 185.0 154 47 146 16 0% .000 7.5 2.3 0.8 7.1 1.09 2.63 0.0 0.0
1997 PAW AAA 11 6 0 23 23 161.7 148 34 147 13 0% .292 8.2 1.9 0.7 8.2 1.13 3.12 0.0 0.0
1998 MON MLB 6 9 0 24 23 134.7 130 43 83 18 48% .262 8.7 2.9 1.2 5.5 1.28 4.21 1.6 -0.1
1998 OTT AAA 1 0 0 3 3 18.7 12 7 14 1 0% .000 5.8 3.4 0.5 6.7 1.02 2.41 0.0 0.0
1998 JUP A+ 0 0 0 4 4 15.0 20 3 14 1 0% .000 12.0 1.8 0.6 8.4 1.53 6.60 0.0 0.0
1999 MON MLB 6 8 0 19 18 104.0 117 35 70 8 53% .321 10.1 3.0 0.7 6.1 1.46 5.62 13.0 1.5
1999 OTT AAA 0 1 0 2 2 5.0 7 0 3 1 0% .000 12.6 0.0 1.8 5.4 1.40 9.00 0.0 0.0
2000 MON MLB 8 4 0 15 15 97.0 89 34 64 8 54% .276 8.3 3.2 0.7 5.9 1.27 3.06 10.0 1.0
2001 MON MLB 1 6 0 8 8 42.7 59 16 36 7 49% .377 12.4 3.4 1.5 7.6 1.76 6.33 1.8 0.1
2001 OTT AAA 2 1 0 4 4 27.7 27 5 19 4 0% .000 8.8 1.6 1.3 6.2 1.16 3.57 0.0 0.0
2001 JUP A+ 1 1 0 3 3 12.3 10 2 11 1 0% .000 7.3 1.5 0.7 8.0 0.98 2.20 0.0 0.0
2002 FLO MLB 3 2 0 22 8 61.7 76 14 41 5 55% .345 11.1 2.0 0.7 6.0 1.46 3.79 10.2 1.0
2002 MON MLB 3 8 0 15 14 74.3 98 31 51 14 58% .340 11.9 3.8 1.7 6.2 1.74 6.30 6.2 0.6
2002 OTT AAA 3 0 0 3 3 20.3 23 2 9 2 0% .304 10.2 0.9 0.9 4.0 1.23 3.10 0.0 0.0
2003 FLO MLB 12 13 0 33 32 201.0 204 49 133 19 43% .290 9.1 2.2 0.9 6.0 1.26 4.30 30.9 3.1
2004 FLO MLB 18 8 0 31 31 222.3 212 49 139 16 49% .282 8.6 2.0 0.6 5.6 1.17 3.00 21.3 2.1
2005 NYA MLB 4 6 0 17 17 100.0 129 18 56 17 51% .327 11.6 1.6 1.5 5.0 1.47 4.77 0.9 -0.1
2005 TAM A+ 0 1 0 1 1 6.0 6 0 3 1 0% -1.250 9.0 0.0 1.5 4.5 1.00 4.50 0.0 0.0
2006 TAM A+ 0 2 0 3 3 11.0 10 3 10 2 0% .250 8.2 2.5 1.6 8.2 1.18 2.45 0.0 0.0
2006 COH AAA 1 0 0 1 1 6.2 8 1 5 0 47% .471 11.6 1.5 0.0 7.3 1.45 2.90 1.4 0.1
2006 TRN AA 1 0 0 3 3 11.2 6 0 12 0 0% .214 4.8 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.54 1.61 0.0 0.0
2007 NYA MLB 1 0 0 2 2 11.3 12 2 4 1 52% .282 9.5 1.6 0.8 3.2 1.24 4.76 1.3 0.1
2008 TRN AA 1 1 0 3 3 14.0 14 3 13 3 44% .289 9.0 1.9 1.9 8.4 1.21 3.86 1.3 0.1
2008 CSC A 0 0 0 2 2 5.0 6 1 6 0 57% .429 10.8 1.8 0.0 10.8 1.40 1.80 2.3 0.2
2008 NYA MLB 4 2 0 7 7 34.3 41 10 15 5 42% .300 10.7 2.6 1.3 3.9 1.49 5.77 -1.1 -0.1
2009 CLE MLB 9 8 0 21 21 125.7 150 23 88 19 46% .327 10.7 1.6 1.4 6.3 1.38 5.37 15.0 1.4
2009 MIN MLB 5 4 0 12 12 73.7 85 16 59 7 41% .332 10.4 2.0 0.9 7.2 1.37 4.64 15.8 1.6
2010 MIN MLB 17 11 0 32 32 221.0 227 37 117 24 53% .281 9.2 1.5 1.0 4.8 1.19 3.75 14.8 1.2
2011 MIN MLB 9 13 0 33 33 222.0 262 40 102 23 53% .306 10.6 1.6 0.9 4.1 1.36 4.30 13.7 1.6
2012 MIN MLB 2 5 0 11 11 63.0 80 8 33 9 43% .329 11.4 1.1 1.3 4.7 1.40 6.00 -0.4 -0.1
2012 FTM A+ 0 0 0 2 2 5.0 4 0 3 1 44% .200 7.2 0.0 1.8 5.4 0.80 1.80 0.4 0.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 565 0.4584 0.4708 0.8459 0.6680 0.3039 0.8960 0.7527 0.1541
2009 3072 0.5218 0.4762 0.8158 0.5970 0.3424 0.8746 0.7038 0.1836
2010 3054 0.5432 0.4807 0.8397 0.5817 0.3591 0.9150 0.6946 0.1603
2011 3381 0.5138 0.4930 0.8511 0.6454 0.3315 0.9063 0.7376 0.1477
2012 906 0.5177 0.4922 0.8671 0.6354 0.3341 0.9396 0.7192 0.1329
Career109780.52170.48370.83910.61450.3410.90210.71540.1604

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-01-24 2013-01-24 FA 0 0 - General Medical Surgery Ruptured Spleen Fell Shoveling Snow - -
2012-06-02 2012-10-04 60-DL 124 111 Right Shoulder Sprain Capsule with Bone Bruising -
2012-05-20 2012-05-26 DTD 6 5 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2012-05-09 2012-05-09 DTD 0 0 Right Shoulder Sprain Capsule - -
2010-09-11 2010-09-16 DTD 5 4 Neck Stiffness -
2010-04-12 2010-04-12 DTD 0 0 Right Hand Contusion Batted Ball -
2009-06-17 2009-06-24 DTD 7 5 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2009-06-08 2009-06-10 DTD 2 1 Right Neck Tightness -
2008-09-14 2008-09-14 DTD 0 0 Right Hip Soreness -
2008-03-22 2008-08-23 60-DL 154 128 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2007-06-05
2007-04-15 2007-10-09 60-DL 177 152 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2007-06-05
2007-02-24 2007-03-04 Camp 8 0 Left Foot Contusion Batted Ball -
2006-08-15 2006-08-15 On-Alr 0 0 Right Trunk Fracture Rib Cage From Car Accident -
2006-05-17 2006-05-17 On-Alr 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Bone Chips 2006-05-19
2006-03-28 2006-10-08 60-DL 194 162 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis -
2006-02-12 2006-03-26 Camp 42 0 Low Back Strain -
2005-06-28 2005-10-11 60-DL 105 86 Right Shoulder Inflammation Rotator Cuff Tendinitis -
2005-04-10 2005-04-10 DTD 0 0 Head Concussion Batted Ball -
2001-03-22 2001-08-15 60-DL 146 119 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Bone Chips 2000-08-22 -
2000-06-26 2000-10-01 60-DL 97 89 Right Elbow Surgery Bone Chips 2000-08-22 -
1999-07-12 1999-09-13 15-DL 63 59 Right Elbow Inflammation Tendonitis - -
1997-07-01 1997-07-13 Minors 12 0 Right Elbow Inflammation Tendonitis - -
1997-04-03 1997-04-25 Minors 22 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2013 MIN $
2012 MIN $8,500,000
2011 MIN $8,000,000
2010 MIN $7,000,000
2009 CLE $1,500,000
2008 NYA $11,000,000
2007 NYA $10,000,000
2006 NYA $8,000,000
2005 NYA $9,000,000
2004 FLO $3,800,000
2003 FLO $1,500,000
2002 MON $1,312,500
2001 MON $1,300,000
2000 MON $255,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
13 yrPrevious$71,167,500
13 yrTotal$71,167,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
14 y 161 dTom O`Connell2 years/$16.5M (2011-12)

Details
  • 2 years/$16.5M (2011-12). Re-signed by Minnesota as a free agent 1/19/11. 11:$8M, 12:$8.5M, Performance bonuses: $0.1M each for 190, 200 IP. $0.15M each for 210, 220 IP. Limited no-trade protection. Club will not offer arbitration after 2012 season. Retired 2/14.
  • 1 year/$7M (2010). Re-signed by Minnesota 1/19/10 (accepted club's arbitration offer 12/7/09, avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$1.5M (2009). Signed by Cleveland as a free agent 1/6/09. $5.3M in performance bonus based on starts, IP. Acquired by Minnesota in trade from Cleveland 8/7/09.
  • 4 years/$39.95M (2005-08). Signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/04. 05:$9M, 06:$8M, 07:$10M, 08:$11M, 09:$13M club option, $1.95M buyout. Pavano may void option and forfeit buyout by reaching appearance levels.
  • 1 year/$3.8M (2004). Re-signed by Florida 1/04 (avoided arbitration). Award bonus: $50,000 for All-Star.
  • 1 year/$1.5M (2003). Re-signed by Florida 12/02.
  • 1 year/$1.3125M (2002). Re-signed by Montreal 2/02 (avoided arbitration, $1.425M - $1.2M). Acquired by Florida in trade from Montreal 7/02.
  • 1 year/$1.3M (2001).
  • 1 year/$0.255M (2000).
  • 1 year/$0.225M (1999).
  • 1 year/$0.17M (1998). Acquired by Montreal in trade from Boston 11/97 (Pedro Martinez deal).
  • Drafted by Boston 1994 (13-355) (Southington HS, Conn.)

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 2.7 2.9 0 8 8 50.0 48 7 28 5 .270 1.11 3.45 3.75 7.5 0.8
80o 2.4 2.7 0 7 7 44.7 46 7 25 5 .283 1.19 3.80 4.13 4.6 0.5
70o 2.1 2.6 0 6 6 41.0 44 7 23 4 .293 1.25 4.06 4.41 2.9 0.3
60o 1.9 2.5 0 6 6 37.9 42 7 21 4 .301 1.29 4.28 4.65 1.6 0.2
50o 1.7 2.4 0 5 5 35.0 41 6 20 4 .308 1.34 4.49 4.88 0.6 0.1
40o 1.5 2.2 0 5 5 32.2 39 6 18 4 .316 1.39 4.71 5.11 -0.2 -0.0
30o 1.3 2.1 0 5 5 29.3 37 6 16 4 .324 1.44 4.94 5.37 -1.0 -0.1
20o 1.1 1.9 0 4 4 26.0 34 5 15 3 .333 1.51 5.21 5.67 -1.7 -0.2
10o 0.9 1.7 0 3 3 21.5 30 5 12 3 .346 1.60 5.60 6.09 -2.2 -0.2
Weighted Mean1.72.305534.4406194.3071.334.474.860.70.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
10% 34% 14% 14% 74%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153911120303018821735982248.3041.344.544.9310.41.74.71.10.3
20164010110282817220733862148.3101.404.785.1910.81.74.51.1-0.2
2017418100242414317629682048.3101.435.035.4611.11.84.31.3-0.5
201842790212112115525541548.3201.485.215.6711.51.94.01.1-0.7
201943680171710112921451448.3181.495.315.7711.51.94.01.3-0.7
20204457016169412322421448.3221.555.636.1211.82.14.01.3-1.0
20214557015158711119371248.3171.505.415.8811.52.03.81.2-0.7
20224646013137910319331248.3171.545.586.0611.72.23.71.4-0.8
2023474601212729317291148.3161.535.596.0811.72.13.61.4-0.7

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
28.534.222.5815.37.4108.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 David Wells 2001 4.92
2 91 Jon Lieber 2008 4.63
3 89 Greg Maddux 2004 4.36
4 89 Bob Tewksbury 1999 0.00 DNP
5 88 Paul Byrd 2009 5.82
6 88 Joe Dobson 1955 0.00 DNP
7 87 Whitey Ford 1967 2.25
8 87 Early Wynn 1958 4.28
9 86 Gaylord Perry 1977 4.08
10 86 Kevin Millwood 2013 0.00 DNP
11 86 Sal Maglie 1955 4.93
12 85 Jim Kaat 1977 5.61
13 85 Charlie Leibrandt 1995 0.00 DNP
14 85 Jamie Moyer 2001 3.61
15 85 Woody Williams 2005 5.19
16 84 Rick Reuschel 1987 3.61
17 84 Ken Johnson 1971 0.00 DNP
18 84 Phil Niekro 1977 4.52
19 83 Luis Tiant 1979 4.32
20 83 Don Sutton 1983 4.45
21 83 Livan Hernandez 2013 0.00 DNP
22 83 Jerry Reuss 1987 6.96
23 83 Bryn Smith 1994 0.00 DNP
24 83 Brian Moehler 2010 5.24
25 83 Dick Donovan 1966 0.00 DNP
26 82 Orel Hershiser 1997 4.84
27 82 Dennis Martinez 1992 2.98
28 82 Ed Lopat 1956 0.00 DNP
29 82 Mike Hampton 2011 0.00 DNP
30 82 Tom Candiotti 1996 5.38
31 81 Jerry Koosman 1981 4.38
32 81 Rudy May 1983 7.36
33 81 Warren Spahn 1959 3.27
34 80 Ellis Kinder 1953 2.61
35 80 Virgil Trucks 1955 4.01
36 80 Vic Raschi 1957 0.00 DNP
37 80 Danny Darwin 1994 6.42
38 80 Doyle Alexander 1989 4.76
39 80 Sonny Siebert 1975 4.31 DNP
40 80 Billy Pierce 1965 0.00 DNP
41 80 Dizzy Trout 1953 0.00 DNP
42 80 Mark Hendrickson 2012 0.00 DNP
43 79 John Burkett 2003 5.30
44 79 Jack Morris 1993 6.84
45 79 Preacher Roe 1954 5.71
46 79 Larry Jackson 1969 0.00 DNP
47 79 Mike Mussina 2007 5.33
48 79 Hal Brown 1963 3.44
49 79 Miguel Batista 2009 4.67
50 79 Chuck Finley 2001 6.02
51 78 Mike Cuellar 1975 3.90 DNP
52 78 Bert Blyleven 1989 2.84
53 78 Charlie Hough 1986 4.49
54 77 Orlando Hernandez 2004 3.30
55 77 Jimmy Key 1999 0.00 DNP
56 77 Terry Mulholland 2001 4.80
57 77 Jeff Fassero 2001 3.79
58 77 Geoff Zahn 1984 3.52
59 77 Hiroki Kuroda 2013 3.53
60 77 Kevin Tapani 2002 0.00 DNP
61 77 Jim Bunning 1970 4.56
62 77 Andy Pettitte 2010 3.63
63 76 David Cone 2001 4.91
64 76 Vern Law 1968 0.00 DNP
65 75 Jim Perry 1974 3.36
66 75 Al Leiter 2004 3.37
67 75 Hoyt Wilhelm 1961 2.87
68 75 John Tudor 1992 0.00 DNP
69 75 Ken Forsch 1985 0.00 DNP
70 75 Bob Gibson 1974 4.12
71 75 Kevin Brown 2003 2.86
72 75 Aaron Sele 2008 0.00 DNP
73 74 Jim Palmer 1984 9.68
74 74 Joe Nuxhall 1967 0.00 DNP
75 74 Marty Pattin 1981 0.00 DNP
76 74 Bill Krueger 1996 0.00 DNP
77 74 Allie Reynolds 1955 0.00 DNP
78 74 Steve Carlton 1983 3.71
79 74 Curt Simmons 1967 5.01
80 74 Tim Wakefield 2005 4.51
81 74 Harry Brecheen 1953 4.03
82 73 Mark Portugal 2001 0.00 DNP
83 73 Dave Stewart 1995 7.11
84 73 Kenny Rogers 2003 4.98
85 73 Jim Lonborg 1980 0.00 DNP
86 73 Sam Jones 1964 2.61
87 73 Ramon Ortiz 2011 5.40
88 73 Frank Tanana 1992 4.92
89 73 Pete Walker 2007 0.00 DNP
90 73 Rick Aguilera 2000 5.48
91 72 Roger Clemens 2001 3.84
92 72 Steve Renko 1983 4.67
93 72 Hisanori Takahashi 2013 6.00
94 72 Darren Oliver 2009 2.71
95 72 Derek Lowe 2011 5.29
96 72 Dave Burba 2005 0.00 DNP
97 72 Robin Roberts 1965 3.45
98 72 Bob Feller 1957 0.00 DNP
99 72 Jeff Suppan 2013 0.00 DNP
100 72 Scott Sanderson 1995 5.26

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2013 The Twins re-signed Carl Pavano and his mustache at a premium rate in 2011 because they expected them to continue to be workhorses who could throw 200 innings or more while getting by striking out fewer than five batters per nine innings. Neither of those things happened, obviously, as anyone who was not former-GM Bill Smith could have predicted. With a bum shoulder (that they suggested the Twins training staff failed to diagnose properly), Pavano and his mustache were limited to only 63 innings last year. They won’t get a multi-year deal this time around, but assuming their shoulder is healed and velocity recovers, Pavano and his mustache could still be good enough to fill a fourth-starter spot. It probably won’t be on the Twins, but they could, and probably will, do worse.
2012 Pavano's days of "American Idle" appear to be behind him. Given his newfound propensity for durability—his 420.1 innings in 2009-2010 ranked 19th in the majors—the Twins rewarded him with a two-year, $16.5 million deal last winter, and at the very least, he continued to show up for work regularly. Problem was, his strikeout rate dipped 15 percent from its already-low 2010 mark, to the point where it was the majors' second lowest among ERA qualifiers; when backed by an inferior defense, his BABIP shot up 25 points. Even given his pinpoint control, he's a League Average Inning Muncher at a more or less breakeven price, which has its purposes on the roster of a contender, less so on a second-division club looking to cut payroll.
2011 Pavano has done a nice job turning his career around and improving his image since his debacle of a four-year stint with the Yankees from 2005-08. He hasn't missed a start in the last two seasons with the Indians and Twins, even qualifying as a workhorse by averaging 6.5 innings per outing. However, Pavano's strikeout rate of 4.8 batters per nine innings in 2010 was a red flag that turned crimson after dropping to 2.8 during the final month of the season. The mustachioed moundsman's rebound has come about in part because he has honed his changeup into an outstanding pitch, and his control is exemplary, but his inability to punch people out with a 90-mph heater will eventually catch up to him.
2010 After becoming a bit of a joke in New York after three seasons and just 26 starts on a four-year contract, Pavano found his health waiting for him in Cleveland, where it had been keeping a low profile while recording an album with Santana. Reunited with it, Pavano made 33 starts in 2009, including 12 for the Twins after a mid-season trade. He took the surprising step of accepting the Twins' offer of arbitration after looking at the market for a few weeks as a free agent, and is a lock for a rotation slot in 2009. He remains a strike-throwing machine with a good changeup, but he's hittable, and even healthy, isn't a starter who puts you closer to a pennant.
2009 Pavano made his last start of 2007 on April 9, and made his first start of 2008 on August 23. In between came Tommy John surgery and a rehab which seemed to stretch on endlessly due to the pitcher's ability to injure every part of his body, not to mention a reputation for malingering. Once "healthy," Pavano survived six hittable starts despite complaints of a stiff hip. It's said the second year back from TJ surgery is the one to look forward to, but as Pavano has made just 26 appearances in the last three years it's hard to know what he has left. The Indians, desperate for help at the back of their rotation, signed him to a one-year deal; they'd better have upgraded their whirlpool facilities since Major League.
2008 The Yankees' default Opening Day starter in 2007, Carl Pavano made just one more start before a DL stint and Tommy John surgery. Curiously, the Yankees' pitching-rich farm system may be his legacy, as GM Brian Cashman has been hoarding pitching prospects ever since an empty larder forced him to bid on Mr. Glass.
2007 When it was revealed in late August that Pavano had busted a couple of ribs in a car accident, derailing his umpteenth comeback from bruised buttocks, bone chips, arm soreness, back stiffness, rotator cuff tendonitis, humerus pain, therapy to even the length of his legs, and dandruff, Derek Jeter cracked, `It`s not a letdown if you weren`t counting on it,` and Johnny Damon said he hoped that the car was okay. Yankees sources were quoted as disparaging Pavano`s `apparent indifference . . . he has been a regular on the massage table and is often seen munching candy bars.` Having cemented his rep as the world`s most expensive escapee from the Island of Misfit Toys (the Yankees have paid him close to $17 million so far and are in for another $23 million before they`re done), Pavano will attempt to come back from nearly two years off. What the Yankees will get if he remains healthy is anyone`s guess--Pavano was never that good in the first place.
2006 Along with Womack and Wright, Pavano made for three major free-agent misjudgments in one winter. Seduced by the sole season of Pavano`s career in which he was both healthy and good, the Yankees handed him a four-year deal, ignoring his low strikeout rates and the benefit he reaped from pitching in Dolphins Stadium. Pavano had a decent start to the season, but got progressively worse until he hit the DL with shoulder tendinitis after his June 27 start. He was only supposed to be gone briefly, but his rehab lasted into August. On the verge of returning, he called the whole thing off and headed to Birmingham to meet with Dr. James Andrews. It wasn`t a social call. Though no structural problems were found, he was shut down for the rest of the season. Pavano has exemplary control: his BB/9 has declined in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, his K/9 did exactly the same thing. Scared of their shallow starting rotation, the Yankees resisted trade entreaties on Pavano all winter long. Given an opportunity to get out from under this contract, they should take it.
2005 Here's the problem with Pavano's new wealth: The four-year, $39-million contract he signed is for twice as many full seasons as he has on his resumé. Pavano isn't a top-tier, dominant starter so much as he's a guy who managed to stay in the rotation in front of a good defense for a team in a pitcher's park. His strikeout rate is below average, and while he has good command and gets his share of ground balls, strikeout rate is the key indicator for pitchers. His low ERA this year was about the Marlins' defense, not his performance. Pavano will chew up innings and be average, which means the Yankees are going to be disappointed. At least it's a forgiving organization.
2004 Pavano looked like he'd forever be a once-great prospect who could never stay healthy. Then he went out and led the Marlins in regular season innings and was the team's second-best starter in the playoffs behind Josh Beckett. Pavano credited off-season bikram yoga sessions for improving his focus, conditioning, and flexibility. The classes, held at room temperatures of 105 degrees and 60% humidity, are designed to strengthen bones and improve joint mobility and range of motion by working against gravity. We may never know if that or/and other factors turned Pavano around, but it's heartening to see players trying new and different methods to improve performance. This isn't your father's (or grandfather's) MLB,and that's a good thing.
2003 The Big Tease. Pavano looks very pitcher-ish on the mound, but he’s been beaten like the Washington Generals since his pitching elbow was surgically reattached in 2000. With the Marlins, he actually pitched pretty well, especially in a dominant relief stint—a 2.61 ERA over 20 innings—to start his Marlins career. But the Marlins are forgivably stubborn in this case, and he’s in the mix for a rotation slot in 2003.
2002 Pavano’s medical history reads like a script from ER minus the incestuous frolicking by an ethnically diverse cast. Although he managed eight late-season starts, he hasn’t thrown without a burning sensation in his elbow in at least five years. It would be nice to see what he could do if he were able to take the mound 30 times this season, but that’s little more than wishcasting.
2001 Expect to find Pavano’s picture under the definition of "tendinitis." He’s had it in both his shoulder and elbow, and it has kept him from a full season in each of the last three years. If he finally pitches a full season, he’ll be one of the top 20 starters in the league--and very wealthy through arbitration or a multi-year deal.
2000 He had a wildly inconsistent year, alternating very good and very bad starts, leading to Bill Lee’s observation that no real prospect can fire heat with such a small butt. Fox-quality color commentary aside, a persistent elbow problem put Pavano on the shelf. The Expos have been very careful, getting second and third opinions to make sure that the elbow only requires rest and not surgery. If that’s really all there is to it, he’s a great bet to finally fulfill his promise in 2000, allowing the Spaceman to tackle more important subjects.
1999 A future ace, despite the rocky introduction to the majors. He showed the incredible poise that was his hallmark throughout his minor-league tenure, and didn't show any ill effects from the tendinitis that kept him off the Opening Day roster. May not break out until 2000, but when he does, look out.
1998 This marks the second straight year in which Pavano took a big step forward. He boasts excellent control of all three of his pitches, and improved his command last year. All indicators – K/BB, K/IP, H/IP and adjusted ERA – say he’s ready to join a major league rotation. He’ll have the shortest adjustment period of Boston’s Big Three pitching prospects. Voted top pitching prospect in the International League, which shows that somebody was looking past the won-lost records. Traded to Montreal for Pedro Martinez. he’ll be in the rotation there as well, with a similar outlook.
1997 Pavano sprinted past Orellano on the prospect lists with a great year at Trenton. The Thunder play in a good pitcher’s park, but there’s still a lot to like here. Pavano’s a big guy (6' 5", 225) in the mold of this other pretty good Red Sox right-hander. He understands the value of conditioning, again like that other Sox starter, and he closed with a fury, going 10-1, 1.96 and allowing just one baserunner an inning. He and Suppan are going to be a great 1-2 punch around 1999.

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1998 Internet Baseball Awards Results: Your ballots have been counted, and the results are inGreg Spira1998-10-29


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)What numbers do you expect from Hosmer for the balance of the season? Does he move into elite 1B territory as soon as next year? Also, tell me anything worth hearing about my Twins.
(Patrick from DE)
The PECOTA projection was for .272/.326/.439, but PECOTA isn't told about his struggles with eyesight in 2009, so I expect better. I am hopeful for elite 1B territory at some point. Hmm, next year...as a Royals fan it's incredibly tempting to say yes. I'm not sure the evidence is there yet, though, if I try to be objective. I really want to say yes, though.

Something worth hearing about your Twins? Ouch. Let's see...Jeremy Greenhouse found Carl Pavano had the straightest fastball in the Hardball Times Annual last fall...no wait, that's probably not the kind of thing you wanted to hear.

How 'bout this: I really like Brian Duensing. He seems to be an under-the-radar guy who has decent stuff and good control. I like Scott Baker, too. (Mike Fast)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Yo, Christina: Is the biggest mistake the Yankees could make now just spending to spend? (AKA who knows who comes available between now and July)
(JT from Michigan)
Absolutely. As should be obvious from the Yankees' actions before 2008, Cashman plays a deep, multi-year game; he didn't spend for spending's sake, not when he knew that the major commitments worth making would come the following winter, with Sabathia and Teixeira. I figure losing on Lee is a setback, with the additional problem that 2012's class isn't exactly loaded with aces, which is why I would anticipate the Yankees getting very, very serious about Greinke, instead of just throwing cash at... well, who? It's sort of amusing to note that Carl Pavano might be the best starter left in the free-agency pool, when he's perhaps the one person on the face of the planet less likely to be signed by the Yankees to fill their rotation needs than myself. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Marc. Two parter: 1) What are the chances that the Yankees don't get Lee? 2) If they don't sign Lee, what is their Plan B? Can they get Greinke with Montero?
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
Well, if they won't go seven years on him, and someone else is offering seven years, then there is a really good chance they don't get him.

Greinke, supposedly, has no interest in playing for New York. The Yankees aren't going to deal for someone that will cost what Greinke will in prospects only to let him walk away after a season. The problem is that the free agent market for starting pitching is pretty thin now. Carl Pavano is a legitimate option at this point, so the Yanks may need to either trust some of their kids with a rotation spot, or sign some low-cost, bounce back candidates. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)if the Pirates only go and get (say) Webb and Duescherer to potentially fill out some gaps in the rotation,is this a sound strategy given their current status? And will tehy be able to stand the resultant wrath of the fans?
(frank from vegas)
If I were a Pirates fan, personally I'd rather see them buy a lottery ticket like Webb and Duchscherer right now than overspend for league-average pitching. Small-market teams -- check that, almost all-market teams -- need to develop young, relatively inexpensive pitching themselves to remain competitive, or trade their young, inexpensive hitting talent for it. Signing someone like Hardy will be cheaper than signing, oh, I dunno, Carl Pavano. Maybe I just have an allergy to non-elite free agent starters. If anyone knows a cure, I'm all ears. (Ken Funck)
2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)How amazing is it that after getting overpaid by the Yanks Carl Pavano is about to reel in another multi-year free agent deal that will look bad from the outset?
(WilliamWilde from Boston)
Though to his credit, he did the work to earn it. But that's the problem with free agency anyway, at least from management's perspective -- you usually wind up paying for what the guy's already done, not what he's about to do. (Cue Casey Close quote). I'd love to sign Carl Pavano for a year; I'd hate to sign him for three. (Ken Funck)
2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who does the Veteran's Committee let into the Hall first ... Marvin Miller or George Steinbrenner?
(dianagramr from NYC)
Probably The Boss, though Miller is definitely more deserving due to his incredible impact on the game. Why is Carl Pavano about to become overpaid yet again? Marvin Miller and his almost pathological understanding of how markets work. (Ken Funck)
2010-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Well hello John! What's been the key to Carl Pavano's success this season with the Twins? His 17 wins, 3.75 ERA were the most since 2004 (where he went 18-8 with the Florida Marlins).
(jjbehr from Syracuse, New York)
Health has been a big thing and as the great Matt Swartz points out, the American Idle has had a little bit of luck this season as his peripherals suggest he has not pitched as well as his ERA. It was the opposite last year when his peripherals were good and his ERA was bad. Our stat guys call it regression to the mean. Since I'm not that bright, I call it all evening out in the long run. (John Perrotto)
2010-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat. Do you think the Indians will go after a veteran starter at a low cost, and could Chris Young be an option?
(warclub from Strongsville, OH)
Yeah, someone along the lines of Carl Pavano last season. Chris Young would be a great choice for a lot of teams next season. He's had his share of injuries but he pitched pretty well in a pennant race after sitting out five months. (John Perrotto)
2010-08-24 14:30:00 (link to chat)What do you make of Carl Pavano's hirsute upper lip?
(Beard from Library)
If Tommy's beard is back in the library, another year of law school must be about to begin. As for Pavano's 'stache, I'll just say that you can't argue with success. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, you're take on Carl Pavano's big comeback season? Also, what are the best places to eat in Cooperstown if you're taking your girlfriend's mother out to dinner during induction weekend and you plan to ask her (the girlfriend's mother) to marry you?
(The VORPal Sword from Minniehaha, MN)
Pavano's got a career year going, in part because he is making the necessary sacrifices to Jobu after skimping on them during his New York days. That said, his 3.98 SIERA suggests some regression is in store - the 1.2 BB/9 may be real but the .253 BABIP won't last forever - and I'm still skeptical he gets through the year without a 15-day vacation or more given his history. Plus I'm sticking pins in my Carl Pavano voodoo doll every night. It ain't working, but then those of you who understand the Jaffe Reverse Jinx already knew that.

No idea about dining in Cooperstown, particularly as it relates to creepy marriage proposals, though I do remember liking the burger I had a few doors down the street from the museum when I was there with my then-girlfriend in 2000. Probably the nicest thing this woman (who broke up with me a month later) ever did for me was to suggest the detour to Cooperstown amid our one roadtrip together, and to let me go back to the museum after dinner. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-10-23 16:00:00 (link to chat)I hear a lot about the smart decisions that the Yankees make with their money, but not a lot about all the poor decisions (Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, etc.). Does it make a whole lot of sense to congratulate them for big contracts when the opportunity costs are essentially nil?
(Christopher from Nashville)
I don't think anyone congratulates them for big contracts or lauds smart decisions. In fact, more people discuss their poor decisions than praise them for having a lot of money. (Eric Seidman)
2009-10-07 14:30:00 (link to chat)Do this year's Twins have one of the least intimidating starting rotations in postseason history?
(David from Evanston, IL)
It's fairly unimpressive, for sure, and certainly belongs in the discussion. What I'd like to know is why Scott Baker wasn't tabbed for Game Three instead of Carl Pavano, given that after throwing last night, he'd have four days of rest. You've *got* to guarantee your best pitcher a start in that series. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-10-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)How many New York sportswriters soiled themselves when Pavano was announced as the Game 3 starter? The weekend column will write itself!
(Phil from NJ)
How many Twins fans did? Who looks at Carl Pavano and Scott Baker and chooses Pavano?

Bad decision by Hamels. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-09-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's a reasonable expectation for Erik Bedard in 2010, given his health?
(Todd from Wasilla, AL)
As propositions go, that's a strange way to ask about Bedard. *If* he were healthy, he'd be a swell pitcher to have, but "if" is a powerful word. If I were fabulously wealthy, I'd take vacations more often than once a decade, for example. Bedard's going to get a better deal than, say, Carl Pavano did last winter, but a heavily incentivized contract makes sense, because if Bedard's healthy, then he'd be good enough to be an important part of a contending team's front three. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-09-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you see in the Minnesota rotation next year? Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn are almost givens, considering their manager/pitching coach. But will Manship or Duensing stick? Will Pavano stay in town? How about a free agent signing this winter?
(Akneeland from Arizona)
Betting on Carl Pavano seems dodgy; I like Duensing as a fourth or fifth guy, and with the other in-house options, I'd be totally unsurprised if the Twins don't add a token veteran for camp competition. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-07-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)Carl Pavano appears to have recovered from his "dead arm" period and is back to being a decent starter who can get you into (maybe through) the 7th: if a team traded for him, would they be on the hook for his innings-based incentives? How much would Cleveland have to kick in to get an asset for Pavano? (I am on a crusade: it worked with Mark DeRosa.)
(buffum from Austin TX)
I hear what you're saying, Steve, but one good start in a row does not a decent starter make, and his previous three times out, he didn't get through six innings.

At any rate, I suspect it's the kind of complication that the Indians might have to add cash to for the right to make Pavano somebody else's problem. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Steven: How hard did you laugh when you read the reports today that Carl Pavano might return to the Yankees in August?
(Joe from Washington, DC)
I did laugh bitterly, but it's useful to remember, as per earlier in this chat, that pitchers aren't that predictable. If Aaron Small could save a Yankees season, so could Carl Pavano. I don't think that will happen, but it could... (Steven Goldman)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneNext, Carl Pavano. Payback is a bitch. (Steven Goldman)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener Roundtablebobbob1313 (Miami): With all of the ragging on the Vicente Padilla's of the world going on here, I've got to ask: Off the top of your heads, who is the worst opening day starter you can think of in recent memory? Is there a better (worse?) choice for this than Mark Hendrickson?

Hendrickson is certainly a good choice (no pun intended), but I distinctly remember one Carl Pavano, post-buttocks injury, taking the ball on Opening Day a couple years back. (Steph Bee)
2008-10-22 16:30:00World Series Game OneOh, Steve, you exaggerate. Carl Pavano pitches on 217 days rest. (Jay Jaffe)
 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2014, Carl Pavano threw 11,072 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2012, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2012, he relied primarily on his Sinker (88mph) and Splitter (80mph), also mixing in a Slider (83mph) and Fourseam Fastball (87mph).