Biographical

Portrait of Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly PRays

Rays Player Cards | Rays Team Audit | Rays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 25)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
70.7 3.24 1.20 72 4 3 0 1.1
Birth Date6-13-1989
Height6' 3"
Weight190 lbs
Age25 years, 4 months, 11 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2010
2011
1.62012
1.62013
3.72014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2012 DET 23 23 18 99.3 95.0 4.3 4 3 0 0 7 0 416 93 49 44 12 159 33 32 2 94 3.99 3.78 4.23 14.5 1.6
2013 DET 24 63 0 76.0 0.0 76.0 6 0 2 5 0 0 303 62 20 20 4 95 17 16 1 81 2.37 2.34 2.95 14.8 1.6
2014 DET 25 21 18 105.3 98.3 7.0 6 9 0 0 8 1 445 111 48 46 14 184 31 30 1 89 3.93 4.11 3.83 16.7 1.8
2014 TBA 25 7 7 47.7 47.7 0.0 3 1 0 0 5 0 173 25 9 9 4 43 11 10 0 44 1.70 3.10 3.25 7.1 0.8
Career11443328.3241.087.3191325201133729112611934481928843083.263.453.6753.25.8

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2011 LAK A+ 14 14 80.3 3.21 134 .225 .262 .328 .391 .256 .317 102 20.2 2.0 20.2 2.0
2011 ERI AA 8 7 45.7 3.24 128 .202 .258 .326 .395 .273 .287 94 9.2 0.9 9.2 0.9
2012 DET MLB 23 18 99.3 4.23 108 .258 .259 .321 .408 .262 .295 104 14.5 1.5 14.5 1.6
2012 TOL AAA 7 7 17.7 4.67 98 .301 .262 .322 .392 .250 .413 98 2.6 0.3 2.6 0.3
2013 DET MLB 63 0 76.0 2.95 132 .218 .253 .316 .398 .265 .291 101 14.8 1.6 14.8 1.6
2014 DET MLB 21 18 105.3 3.83 112 .275 .250 .308 .380 .257 .313 105 16.3 1.8 16.7 1.8
2014 TBA MLB 7 7 47.7 3.25 120 .179 .254 .317 .403 .269 .184 99 7.1 0.8 7.1 0.8

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2011 ERI AA 4 3 0 8 7 45.7 32 15 53 1 52% .287 6.3 3.0 0.2 10.4 1.03 1.18 9.2 0.9
2011 LAK A+ 7 3 0 14 14 80.3 71 21 77 1 49% .317 8.0 2.4 0.1 8.6 1.15 2.58 20.2 2.0
2012 TOL AAA 0 2 0 7 7 17.7 22 8 25 3 35% .413 11.2 4.1 1.5 12.7 1.70 6.11 2.6 0.3
2012 DET MLB 4 3 0 23 18 99.3 93 33 94 12 42% .295 8.4 3.0 1.1 8.5 1.27 3.99 14.5 1.6
2013 DET MLB 6 0 2 63 0 76.0 62 17 81 4 43% .291 7.3 2.0 0.5 9.6 1.04 2.37 14.8 1.6
2014 DET MLB 6 9 0 21 18 105.3 111 31 89 14 40% .313 9.5 2.6 1.2 7.6 1.35 3.93 16.7 1.8
2014 TBA MLB 3 1 0 7 7 47.7 25 11 44 4 36% .184 4.7 2.1 0.8 8.3 0.76 1.70 7.1 0.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2012 1744 0.5052 0.4352 0.7918 0.5902 0.2769 0.8692 0.6234 0.2082
2013 1280 0.4781 0.4703 0.7674 0.6258 0.3278 0.8747 0.5799 0.2309
2014 2586 0.5000 0.4733 0.7892 0.6280 0.3186 0.8682 0.6335 0.2108
Career56100.49660.46080.7850.61570.30770.870.61810.2146

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-06-29 2014-06-29 DTD 0 0 - General Medical Illness -
2012-07-07 2012-07-29 15-DL 22 17 Right Trunk Strain Intercostal - -
2012-06-11 2012-06-26 15-DL 15 13 Left Fingers Blister Middle Finger - -
2012-04-17 2012-04-17 DTD 0 0 - Low Back Contusion Batted Ball - -
2011-04-20 2011-05-28 Minors 38 36 Left Elbow Soreness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 DET $520,000
2013 DET $498,000
2012 DET $
YearsDescriptionSalary
1 yrPrevious$498,000
2011Current$520,000
2 yrPvs + Cur$1,018,000
2 yrTotal$1,018,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
1 y 154 d1 year/$0.52M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.52M (2014). Re-signed by Detroit 2/24/14. Acquired by Tampa Bay in trade from Detroit 7/31/14.
  • 1 year/$0.498M (2013). Re-signed by Detroit 2/22/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by Detroit 4/12/12.
  • Drafted by Detroit 2010 (2-68) (Arkansas). $1.1M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 9 5.7 0 24 24 149.7 115 35 148 12 .262 1.00 2.48 2.7 38.8 4.0
80o 8.7 6.2 0 24 24 141.8 117 36 140 12 .277 1.08 2.86 3.1 32.2 3.3
70o 8.5 6.5 0 24 24 136.2 119 37 135 12 .288 1.14 3.13 3.4 27.4 2.8
60o 8.4 6.8 0 24 24 131.5 120 37 130 12 .297 1.19 3.37 3.66 23.3 2.4
50o 8.2 7.1 0 24 24 127.2 121 37 126 12 .306 1.24 3.60 3.91 19.4 2.0
40o 8 7.3 0 24 24 123.0 122 37 122 12 .314 1.29 3.82 4.16 15.6 1.6
30o 7.8 7.7 0 24 24 118.5 122 38 117 12 .324 1.35 4.07 4.43 11.7 1.2
20o 7.6 8 0 24 24 113.4 123 38 112 13 .334 1.42 4.37 4.75 7.1 0.7
10o 7.3 8.6 0 24 24 106.4 123 38 105 13 .349 1.52 4.79 5.2 0.8 0.1
Weighted Mean8.2702424126.81193712512.3041.233.563.8720.02.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
32% 59% 20% 16% 97%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20152611903131198184511991943.3021.193.293.588.42.39.00.93.6
20162711903131197184501901943.3001.193.323.608.42.38.70.93.5
20172810903030189176471831943.2991.183.353.648.42.28.70.93.3
20182910902929181174441691843.3041.213.473.778.72.28.40.92.9
2019309802828170163411641743.3051.203.473.788.62.28.70.92.7
2020319802727160153391531643.3041.203.413.708.62.28.60.92.7
2021328702525147142351391543.3041.203.463.768.72.18.50.92.4
2022338702323135131321271443.3051.203.503.808.72.18.40.92.2
2023347602020121118291121243.3071.223.563.868.82.28.40.91.8

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
41.449.255.93716.222.3199.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 89 Tommy Hanson 2012 4.90
2 88 Max Scherzer 2010 3.86
3 88 Brandon Beachy 2012 2.67
4 87 Brett Cecil 2012 5.87
5 87 Francisco Liriano 2009 6.12
6 86 Kris Medlen 2011 0.00
7 85 Micah Owings 2008 6.28
8 84 Homer Bailey 2011 4.64
9 84 Sean Gallagher 2011 0.00 DNP
10 84 Matt Garza 2009 4.12
11 84 Josh Johnson 2009 3.32
12 84 Jonathan Sanchez 2008 5.13
13 83 J.P. Howell 2008 2.92
14 83 Brandon McCarthy 2009 5.09
15 83 Clay Buchholz 2010 2.85
16 83 Edinson Volquez 2009 4.53
17 83 Jered Weaver 2008 4.48
18 82 Carlos Villanueva 2009 5.44
19 82 Gio Gonzalez 2011 3.61
20 82 Luke Hochevar 2009 6.86
21 81 Johnny Cueto 2011 2.94
22 81 Brian Matusz 2012 5.60
23 81 Kevin Slowey 2009 4.96
24 81 Joba Chamberlain 2011 3.45
25 81 Derek Holland 2012 5.13
26 81 Chris Tillman 2013 3.79
27 80 Chad Gaudin 2008 5.00
28 80 Andrew Miller 2010 9.37
29 80 Vance Worley 2013 7.95
30 80 Andy Sonnanstine 2008 4.89
31 80 John Danks 2010 3.93
32 79 Dana Eveland 2009 7.98
33 79 Tommy Hunter 2012 5.66
34 79 Brandon Morrow 2010 4.67
35 79 Zach Duke 2008 5.35
36 79 Mike Minor 2013 3.47
37 79 Rich Harden 2007 2.45
38 79 Jonathan Broxton 2009 2.84
39 79 Phil Hughes 2011 5.79
40 79 Daniel Hudson 2012 7.35
41 78 Jordan Walden 2013 3.64
42 78 Yovani Gallardo 2011 3.99
43 78 Jensen Lewis 2009 5.16
44 78 Cole Hamels 2009 4.41
45 78 Travis Wood 2012 4.62
46 78 Garrett Olson 2009 5.94
47 77 Tyson Ross 2012 6.87
48 77 David Huff 2010 6.89
49 77 Hong-Chih Kuo 2007 7.71
50 77 Jeremy Hellickson 2012 3.46
51 77 Edwin Jackson 2009 3.83
52 77 James McDonald 2010 4.02
53 77 Wade Davis 2011 4.70
54 77 Dallas Braden 2009 4.15
55 77 Tom Gorzelanny 2008 6.75
56 77 Stu Miller 1953 6.77
57 77 John Butcher 1982 5.06
58 77 Carlos Marmol 2008 3.09
59 77 Matt Harrison 2011 3.83
60 76 Alex Cobb 2013 2.89
61 76 Jordan Zimmermann 2011 3.46
62 76 Ricky Romero 2010 4.20
63 76 Marc Rzepczynski 2011 3.92
64 76 Jerome Williams 2007 7.80
65 76 David Price 2011 3.73
66 76 A.J. Griffin 2013 4.05
67 76 Bill Bray 2008 3.64
68 76 Matt Capps 2009 5.96
69 76 Johnny Antonelli 1955 3.56
70 76 Jon Lester 2009 3.54
71 76 Dwight Gooden 1990 4.10
72 76 Kevin Millwood 2000 4.87
73 76 Chad Billingsley 2010 3.80
74 76 Scott Kazmir 2009 5.19
75 76 Josh Lindblom 2012 3.93
76 76 Kevin Appier 1993 2.79
77 76 Andy Messersmith 1971 3.64
78 76 Kyle McClellan 2009 3.78
79 76 Denny Bautista 2008 5.22
80 75 Britt Burns 1984 5.54
81 75 Billy O'Dell 1958 3.38
82 75 Clem Labine 1952 5.14
83 75 Sean Marshall 2008 3.99
84 75 Bert Blyleven 1976 3.20
85 75 Chris Volstad 2012 6.55
86 75 Roger Nelson 1969 3.63
87 75 Jesse Litsch 2010 5.79
88 75 Fernando Valenzuela 1986 3.48
89 75 Tyler Clippard 2010 3.26
90 75 Jake McGee 2012 2.11
91 75 Curt Simmons 1954 3.80
92 75 Frank Sullivan 1955 3.57
93 75 Dave Righetti 1984 2.71
94 75 Ubaldo Jimenez 2009 3.59
95 74 Felix Doubront 2013 4.60
96 74 Aaron Crow 2012 3.76
97 74 Dontrelle Willis 2007 5.74
98 74 Zach McAllister 2013 4.35
99 74 Zack Greinke 2009 2.47
100 74 Jon Niese 2012 3.64

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .200 .244 .292 .192
11 vs R (Multi) .249 .306 .419 .258
18 Split (Multi) -.049 -.062 -.128 -.066
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.026 -.032 -.063 -.030
30 vs L (2013) .189 .225 .246 .167
31 vs R (2013) .242 .295 .404 .248
38 Split (2013) -.054 -.070 -.158 -.080
39 LgAvg (2013) -.025 -.031 -.062 -.029

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Many pegged Smyly for a 2012 cup of coffee at best after a solid debut season in pro ball that ended in Double-A. Instead, he threw 99 strong innings for the big club, including 18 starts. Pitching with more of a high-80s fastball in the minors, Smyly impressed with his heater averaging 92 mph in the majors. Smyly’s debut would be considered a resounding success under any circumstance, but considering the fact that he had just 126 innings of pro ball under his belt (including 46 at Double-A), he ended up one of the most pleasant rookie surprises in the league. He will have to be ready for double duty again in 2013, as he could find himself locking down the back end of the rotation or a key bullpen role.
2012 Smyly’s first minor league season could hardly have gone better, as the former Arkansas starter pitched well and earned a promotion to Double-A, where he was surprisingly dominant down the stretch. Smyly has terrific command and knows how to pitch, mixing his upper-80s fastball and cutter with a wide array of off-speed offerings. He doesn’t have the stuff or upside of fellow lefties Casey Crosby or Andrew Oliver, but he is a finished product and is more likely to reach his ceiling. If Smyly can continue to rack up the strikeouts at higher levels, he could quickly become a solid rotation contributor, though not a star.
2011 The Tigers were happy to nab college starter Drew Smyly in the second round, hoping he can refine his four-pitch lefty arsenal enough to soon fulfill their mid-rotation dreams.

BP Articles

Drew Smyly is referenced in the following articles.

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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Spring Position Battles, American LeagueBen Lindbergh2013-02-11
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Detroit Tigers Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-02-05
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Friday, January 25Daniel Rathman2013-01-25
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-08-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)Drew Smyly. Rays magic?
(Ken Tuckee from wilshire)
Smyly is a solid pitcher, but he's probably just on a hot run. Tommy Rancel noted over the weekend that he's using his cutter more to his arm side, which is lifted from the Jon Lester playbook (and something I wanted to see from him). He's got three quality pitches, control, brains, and guts. You don't need a whole lot more to find success in the majors. Let's just give it a little more time before we buy into him as a monster. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-03-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)Am I alright with a fantasy pitching staff anchored by Scherzer, Cain, Shelby Miller, Andrew Cashner, RA Dickey, Drew Smyly and Tyson Ross?
(Lou from washington)
I have no idea. How big is your league? I like a lot of those pitchers. If you're in a 20-team NL-only league, well done! (Except for the three AL guys.) (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)Why are the experts so pessimistic on Drew Smyly? Obviously he can't replicate what he did last year but he still seems like a strong option.
(Dave from Boston)
Hi Dave (I'm going to be saying "Hi Dave" in my sleep tonight).

Are we? I like Smyly a lot. I think my big concern is going to be with durability/him holding up over the course of a full season given that he pitched out of the pen last year, but I think the numbers are going to be very good. (Mike Gianella)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see Drew Smyly having a good year this year?
(Sumner from The beach)
I think so. Transitioning from a reliever to a starter is an iffy proposition. There are a lot of success stories and a few guys (most famously Joba) who failed.

I think he'll be fine this year. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Doug, just wondering what your thoughts are on today's fantasy article on Pitchers To Avoid? And anyone you would add to that list?Thanks
(DanDaMan from SeaCliff)
Great stuff from the fantasy staff today in this article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22928

I would add anybody on the Brewers, esp Estrada who seems to be getting some helium in drafts. Same with Drew Smyly. I will also be staying away from Liriano, Ubaldo, and both Wood's. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-07 18:00:00 (link to chat)List 5 hitters and pitchers that you feel could be breakout players in 2014. Thanks for the chat, Mike!
(Brett from The Office)
Hi Brett.

Hitters: Christian Yelich, Billy Hamilton, Oscar Taveras, Avisail Garcia, Josmil Pinto.

Pitchers: Jameson Taillon, Rafael Montero, Drew Smyly, Jimmy Nelson, Taijuan Walker. (Mike Gianella)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)I know there is no room in the Tigers' rotation, but do you think Drew Smyly's talent is being wasted in the bullpen?
(BF from New York)
It depends on his change-up, which rarely makes an appearance out of the 'pen. A lefty starter without a change-of-pace can run into trouble against a platoon-stacked lineup.

On the jukebox: Aerosmith, "Dream On" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-04-25 12:30:00 (link to chat)When do you think that J. Leyland will realize that Porcello is better suited on the bench or the minors than starting over Drew Smyly? One, maybe two more starts?
(G Money from Atlanta)
I'm as guilty as anyone of expecting big things out of Porcello this season, even before his great spring training. The fact that Detroit's bullpen isn't exactly rock solid will buy Porcello a few more starts, I'd think, since Smyly is a guy who can go multiple innings out of the pen. (Ben Lindbergh)
2013-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who from the following list of young 4th/5th starter talent types have the best chances at a solid 2013: Dan Straily, Jose Quintana, Joe Kelly, Drew Smyly, AJ Griffin, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, and Patrick Corbin?
(Paul from DC)
I don't know if Kelly, Smyly, or Corbin will get a full slate of starts, I know Phelps won't. That leaves Griffin, Straily, Quintana, and Ramirez and I'd lean toward one of the first two. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which of these young starters has the best year in 2013: AJ Griffin, Matt Harvey, Drew Smyly, and Jose Quintana?
(Paul from DC)
I like Matt Harvey by a wide margin. He's easily got the best stuff of the bunch, and his debut was electric. Quintana/Smyly/Griffin are back of the rotation types and they lack the sizzle of Harvey. (Josh Shepardson)
2012-11-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Detroit lefty Drew Smyly had a pretty decent rookie season with a 1.268 WHIP and 94 Ks in 99 IPs. Does this 2010 2nd round draft pick project as a #3 or better starter?
(Paul from DC)
I see Smyly as a 4, but he could be a solid one at that, which is a little more than I saw from him in 2011. The one shot he has, as do most young arms, to change their profile, is to command everything better. Cliff Lee is a great example. Was never a top prospect, never expected to be a 2 let alone a one who wins a Cy Young and challenges for five others.

As for Chen, I think he is what he is, for the most part, but we could see some small, incremental progressions in some areas, particular with runners on base. There is generally a transition period with Asian pitchers, especially since the ball is different. (Jason A. Churchill)
2012-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Long-term outlook for Drew Smyly? Strike-throwing 4/5 or something more?
(RationalSportsFan from Indy)
The former. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Drew Smyly has thrown 5,557 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2012 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph) and Curve (78mph), also mixing in a Cutter (85mph). He also rarely throws a Change (80mph) and Sinker (88mph).