Biographical

Portrait of Kennys Vargas

Kennys Vargas 1B  

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2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 23)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
3 .246 0 0 0 0 .259 0.0
Birth Date8-1-1990
Height6' 5"
Weight275 lbs
Age24 years, 2 months, 24 days
BatsB
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.62014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2014 MIN 23 53 234 215 26 59 10 1 9 98 12 63 3 4 0 38 0 0 .274 .316 .456 .274 5.7 -0.7 0.6
Career53234215265910199812633403800.274.316.456.2745.7-0.70.6

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2009 TWI Rk 35 130 .298 .247 .321 .352 .264 .347 83 5.7 4.1 -2.6 1.4 -1.1 8.5 1.0 8.5 1.0
2010 TWI Rk 39 160 .313 .246 .308 .345 .256 .434 107 8.6 5.8 -3.7 2.0 0.6 11.1 1.3 11.1 1.3
2011 ELZ Rk 44 191 .297 .257 .331 .397 .261 .420 101 8.3 6.0 -3.8 4.4 -1.3 11.6 1.5 11.6 1.5
2012 BLT A 41 186 .352 .261 .332 .400 .271 .362 101 18.8 5.5 -3.4 0.3 -1.2 19.6 2.0 19.6 2.0
2012 MAY Wnt 25 82 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .208 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 FTM A+ 125 520 .284 .258 .326 .374 .259 .304 100 13.9 15.3 -9.7 -3.9 -0.9 18.9 1.5 18.9 1.5
2014 MIN MLB 53 234 .274 .254 .313 .386 .259 .340 109 3 6.0 -3.9 -0.7 0.1 5.7 0.6 5.7 0.6
2014 NBR AA 97 405 .297 .259 .323 .385 .259 .303 103 15.5 11.1 -7.1 5.9 -1.0 18.9 2.6 18.9 2.6

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2009 TWI Rk 130 12 28 7 0 3 18 17 34 2 0 .257 .372 .404 .147 .298 8.5 1.4 1.0
2010 TWI Rk 160 24 46 15 1 3 26 13 40 1 0 .324 .392 .507 .183 .313 11.1 2.0 1.3
2011 ELZ Rk 191 27 56 11 0 6 33 15 50 0 0 .322 .377 .489 .167 .297 11.6 4.4 1.5
2012 BLT A 186 22 49 10 1 11 36 28 41 0 0 .318 .419 .610 .292 .352 19.6 0.3 2.0
2012 MAY Wnt 82 10 13 2 0 3 9 10 21 0 0 .181 .280 .333 .153 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 FTM A+ 520 68 122 33 1 19 93 50 105 0 0 .267 .344 .468 .201 .284 18.9 -3.9 1.5
2014 NBR AA 405 50 100 17 0 17 63 43 68 0 2 .281 .360 .472 .191 .297 18.9 5.9 2.6
2014 MIN MLB 234 26 59 10 1 9 38 12 63 0 0 .274 .316 .456 .181 .274 5.7 -0.7 0.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2014 871 0.4524 0.5281 0.7283 0.7132 0.3753 0.8826 0.4860 0.2717
Career8710.45240.52810.72830.71320.37530.88260.4860.2717

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 0 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Contract selected by Minnesota 11/20/13. Re-signed by Minnesota 2/28/14.
  • Signed by Minnesota 2/25/09 as an amateur free agent from Puerto Rico. $0.8M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 522 67 130 26 1 22 73 48 127 0 0 .280 .348 .483 .298 23.7 1B -1, 3B 0 2.5
80o 497 61 118 24 1 20 66 43 124 0 0 .264 .330 .454 .282 15.0 1B -1, 3B 0 1.6
70o 480 56 109 22 1 18 62 40 122 0 0 .252 .316 .434 .271 9.2 1B -1, 3B 0 0.9
60o 464 53 101 20 1 17 58 37 120 0 0 .242 .305 .417 .261 4.5 1B -1, 3B 0 0.4
50o 450 49 95 19 1 16 54 35 118 0 0 .233 .294 .401 .252 0.4 1B -1, 3B 0 0.0
40o 436 46 89 18 1 15 51 33 116 0 0 .224 .284 .385 .243 -3.4 1B -1, 3B 0 -0.4
30o 420 43 83 17 1 14 48 30 114 0 0 .214 .272 .368 .233 -7.2 1B -1, 3B 0 -0.9
20o 403 39 76 15 1 13 44 27 111 0 0 .203 .259 .348 .221 -11.3 1B -1, 3B 0 -1.3
10o 378 34 65 13 0 11 39 24 107 0 0 .187 .240 .321 .206 -16.4 1B -1, 3B 0 -1.8
Weighted Mean458519920117563611900.238.300.409.2572.61B -1, 3B 00.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
6% 15% 3% 14% 26%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
201524250315511093121630.243.307.407.2621.211.9-0.7-3.314.90.9-0.5
2016253774681170134632950.239.305.404.2590.88.3-1.0-5.114.9-0.5-0.7
201726632781342802378541610.236.304.406.2600.44.6-1.7-8.714.9-0.0-1.2
201827613781322702378551560.241.312.417.2650.77.8-1.6-8.614.93.0-1.1
201928608771362712277551380.248.318.421.2691.010.1-1.6-8.714.95.4-1.1
202029601761322612175571370.246.319.416.2691.010.0-1.6-8.614.95.2-1.1
202130620761412811973531380.252.317.408.2650.77.3-1.6-8.914.92.9-1.1
202231618771362612175561340.245.315.408.2640.67.0-1.6-8.814.92.5-1.1
202332629761422811974541350.250.315.402.2630.56.1-1.6-9.014.91.7-1.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
7.487.34.65.5436.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 82)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 96 Jesus Aguilar 2013 .000 DNP
2 93 Ike Davis 2010 .299
3 92 Ryan Lavarnway 2011 .275
4 92 Kiel Roling 2010 .000 DNP
5 91 Ryan Strieby 2009 .000 DNP
6 90 Chris Jacobs 2012 .000 DNP
7 90 Rich Poythress 2011 .000 DNP
8 90 Matt Clark 2010 .000 DNP
9 89 Josh Whitaker 2012 .000 DNP
10 88 Mike Zuanich 2010 .000 DNP
11 88 Jonathan Rodriguez 2013 .000 DNP
12 88 Mark Canha 2012 .000 DNP
13 88 Dennis Raben 2011 .000 DNP
14 86 Harold Riggins 2013 .000 DNP
15 86 Matt Curry 2012 .000 DNP
16 86 Travis Shaw 2013 .000 DNP
17 86 Chris Dennis 2012 .000 DNP
18 85 Paul Goldschmidt 2011 .289
19 85 Mike McDade 2012 .000 DNP
20 84 Matt Adams 2012 .228
21 84 Kody Hinze 2011 .000 DNP
22 84 Lars Anderson 2011 .014
23 84 Brandon Snyder 2010 .233
24 84 Kala Ka'aihue 2008 .000 DNP
25 84 O'Koyea Dickson 2013 .000 DNP
26 84 Mark Hamilton 2008 .000 DNP
27 84 Brandon Allen 2009 .226
28 84 Wes Bankston 2007 .000 DNP
29 84 Yazy Arbelo 2011 .000 DNP
30 84 Neftali Soto 2012 .000 DNP
31 83 Nick Evans 2009 .210
32 83 Chris Marrero 2012 .000 DNP
33 83 Chris Parmelee 2011 .354
34 83 Donald Lutz 2012 .000 DNP
35 83 Andy Wilkins 2012 .000 DNP
36 83 Xavier Scruggs 2011 .000 DNP
37 83 Marc Krauss 2011 .000 DNP
38 82 Jerry Sands 2011 .268
39 82 A.J. Kirby-Jones 2012 .000 DNP
40 82 Josh Bell 2010 .199
41 81 Mark Trumbo 2009 .000 DNP
42 81 Joey Terdoslavich 2012 .000 DNP
43 81 Steven Caseres 2010 .000 DNP
44 81 Jonathan Still 2008 .000 DNP
45 81 Daniel Dorn 2008 .000 DNP
46 81 Mike Carp 2009 .317
47 81 Daniel Paolini 2013 .000 DNP
48 81 Michael Taylor 2009 .000 DNP
49 81 Micah Schnurstein 2008 .000 DNP
50 80 Matt LaPorta 2008 .000 DNP
51 80 Chris McGuiness 2011 .000 DNP
52 80 Johermyn Chavez 2012 .000 DNP
53 80 Brandon Meredith 2013 .000 DNP
54 80 Kyle Parker 2013 .000 DNP
55 80 Brett Wallace 2010 .243
56 80 Alex Gordon 2007 .245
57 80 Edgar Lara 2012 .000 DNP
58 80 Mat Gamel 2009 .270
59 80 Beau Mills 2010 .000 DNP
60 80 Adam Milligan 2011 .000 DNP
61 79 Jon Gaston 2010 .000 DNP
62 79 Will Middlebrooks 2012 .279
63 79 Wladimir Balentien 2008 .204
64 79 Corey Dickerson 2012 .000 DNP
65 79 Domonic Brown 2011 .284
66 79 Yonder Alonso 2010 .167
67 79 Chad Huffman 2008 .000 DNP
68 79 Alex Liddi 2012 .233
69 79 Kyle Blanks 2010 .246
70 79 Zoilo Almonte 2012 .000 DNP
71 79 Allen Craig 2008 .000 DNP
72 79 Justin Smoak 2010 .236
73 79 Kevin Keyes 2012 .000 DNP
74 79 Mike Olt 2012 .205
75 79 Jon Talley 2012 .000 DNP
76 79 Adam Duvall 2012 .000 DNP
77 79 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2011 .000 DNP
78 79 Chad Tracy 2009 .000 DNP
79 78 Michael Burgess 2012 .000 DNP
80 78 Johnny Woodard 2008 .000 DNP
81 78 Michael Choice 2013 .294
82 78 Nolan Reimold 2007 .000 DNP
83 78 Khris Davis 2011 .000 DNP
84 78 Mitch Moreland 2009 .000 DNP
85 78 Kellen Kulbacki 2009 .000 DNP
86 78 Tyler Townsend 2011 .000 DNP
87 78 Ian Gac 2009 .000 DNP
88 78 Jamie Romak 2009 .000 DNP
89 78 Devin Mesoraco 2011 .210
90 78 Thomas Neal 2011 .000 DNP
91 78 Ernesto Mejia 2009 .000 DNP
92 78 Kevin Patterson 2012 .000 DNP
93 78 Steffan Wilson 2009 .000 DNP
94 78 J.D. Martinez 2011 .258
95 78 Cory Vaughn 2012 .000 DNP
96 77 Steven Selsky 2013 .000 DNP
97 77 Chris Lubanski 2008 .000 DNP
98 77 Bryce Brentz 2012 .000 DNP
99 77 Jedd Gyorko 2012 .000 DNP
100 77 Aaron Baker 2011 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).

BP Articles

Kennys Vargas is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 12, 2014Chris Mosch2014-09-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty Dynamics: Progress Report Food CompsBen Carsley2014-09-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty Dynamics: Progress Report Food CompsCraig Goldstein2014-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 10, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 5, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-05
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 25, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThey Hold No Quarter: First BaseBP Fantasy Staff2014-08-13
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 4, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-04
BP Unfiltered: From the Road: Up Close, Batting Practice at 2014 MLB Futures GameNick J. Faleris2014-08-01
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, July 24Jeff Moore2014-07-25
This article requires BP Premium access2014 Futures Game Preview: Scouting the International TeamRon Shah2014-07-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty Dynamics: Futures Team Meet and Greet: WorldBen Carsley2014-07-02
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, June 17Jeff Moore2014-06-18
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: June 16, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-06-16
This article requires BP Premium accessPECOTA Takes on Prospects: The Hard-to-Find First Base ProspectAndrew Koo2014-05-08
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: International Winter League Games of December 27-29Jeff Moore2013-12-30
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: June 17BP Prospect Staff2013-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of May 2-May 5Zach Mortimer2013-05-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Chiefs/Snappers EditionKevin Goldstein2012-08-14


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-09-10 12:00:00 (link to chat)Kennys Vargas seems to have come from off the radar screen to being a dominant run producer. Is this just a lucky introduction to MLB or do you think he has staying power? Thanks!!
(Bill from Chicago)
I have always liked Vargas. Looks more like a second division type to me, but I think there is staying-power here. Mellen had a very accurate report. I generally agree with him:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=125 (Tucker Blair)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Kennys Vargas' hot start and future as the Twins DH/1B?
(Ed from Minnesota)
I was asked about him earlier. His peak might be Kendrys Morales before the Morales season-ending injury. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Did you get much chance to see Kennys Vargas before he was promoted? Is his current production a surprise? What's a realistic expectation for 2015? And beyond?
(Cris E from St Paul, MN)
I saw him at the futures game. The average is a surprise, but the power is real. He's a large, large man, and could be a first division 1B, with a second division 1B as realistic floor. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-08-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)What was your opinion of Kennys Vargas prior to his call-up, and has it changed now that you've been able to see him on a more consistent basis (on TV or live), with the obvious caveat that it's a small sample size?
(Jacob from Ga.)
I saw a little of Vargas over the winter. Hadn't heard much of him before, but the size and switch-hitting intrigued me. My concern is with the approach and the hit tool. Obviously his stats are pretty right now, particularly from the left side, but he'll need to hit for power and average to sustain those strikeout and walk rates. I know he has it in him to hit the snot out of the ball, I just want to see if he can consistently hit .250-plus. If not, I'm not sure there's enough there to start. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Kennys Vargas has shown some pretty awesome power from both sides of the plate thus far. When he gets into one he actually makes Target Field look small. I know he's due for some regression in the babip and avg departments but his minor league numbers also suggest he should be taking more walks. On balance, can he be a .260 guy with 25 home run power at his peak?
(Peter from Florida)
I saw him for the first time at the Futures Game and wow, he has serious power. The 39-4 K-BB ratio makes it almost certain that his AVG will regress, but his minor league numbers show very solid command of the strike zone. I could see him maintaining a .280-290 average with 25 homers, or even more... with his size, he could mature into a monster. The Twins desperately needed a guy like this in the middle of their lineup. (Cory Schwartz)
2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)Kennys Vargas, Legit?
(Eric from Michigan)
Raw power is. Hit tool utility is not. (CJ Wittmann)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thank goodness it's Friday...Thoughts on Kennys Vargas long term? Can he be a .280, 25 homer guy?
(Bored at work from the office)
Nope, I don't think he can hit nearly that well. He's got power in spades, but I don't think he's got the contact skills to let it function at it's zenith. I think he's a .250s guy, and possibly worse than that. .250/20 would be my guess at a full season worth of ABs (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which of these portly chaps do you like for the rest of the year, Billy Butler or Kennys Vargas?
(RotoLando from Cloud City)
I choose death (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a 14 team, 5x5 dynasty league. at 1B, i currently have Brandon Belt and Jon Singleton. Is Kennys Vargas worth a pickup ? I'm not contending this year.
(childgrambino from Richmond, VA)
I don't think he'll approach either of the guys you have, but I suppose it depends on who you're cutting. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Kennys Vargas? Someone of interest in Minnesota or a Quad A type player?
(Shawn from Office)
Big time power and a better athlete than you'd think. Should be better than a Quad A guy, but not sure I see the point of rushing him to the majors now after a half season of Double-A. We'll see what happens though. Just stop with all the Big Papi comparisons. It's lazy and unfair to the kid. (Jeff Moore)
2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)The Twins called up Kennys Vargas today straight from AA. Why didn't they promote him to AAA earlier on to give him that experience? Are they going to be yo-yoing him back and forth from the minors like they did with Polanco or can we expect him to get an extended look?
(Dave from MD)
I think we'll see him get a good amount of playing time unless he struggles. He's interesting, but not a savior and not a big part of the Twins future. Nice add if you're desperate for power in deep leagues, though. (Ben Carsley)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Kennys Vargas from a fantasy baseball standpoint? Do you think he can be a .275 average, .350 on-base, 20 homerun guy?
(Kyle from Tuscon)
I think that's very heavy on average, I think of him as more of a .250 guy with 25 HR potential. He's a roto play in my mind if he can realize some of his potential, but I'm generally not to excited about 1B prospects. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)What is a realistic comp for Eddie Rosario? Did his suspension take him out of consideration?
(fsumagic from Houston)
I just saw Rosario in game action and I wasn't all that impressed. He has bat speed and has an approach but I don't love the bat control or some of the swing decisions he makes. From LF, its a tough profile and I'm not sold the power is really going to show up.

But on that squad, I really like Kennys Vargas. That kid has 70 raw and I think some of it will come out to play. Legit power profile from both sides of the plate. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Rank these prospects in a dynasty: Rosell Herrera, Nick Williams, Blake Swihart, Daniel Norris, Trevor Story, Alen Hanson, Philip Ervin, Kennys Vargas, Steven Mats.
(Tim from NJ)
Nick Williams, Trevor Story, Daniel Norris and Blake Swihart are the big four of that group. I think everyone kinda rounds out the backend. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Mr. Moore - thanks as always for the time! I was hoping you'd share your thoughts on an odd troika of prospects. Victor Reyes, Franchy Cordero, and Kennys Vargas - ceilings, likelihood of reaching them, and ETA?
(dtothew from Atlanta )
I love odd troikas! Here’s Ethan Purser’s report on Reyes.: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=100 Not a lot of standout tools so the hit tool will have to carry him. High risk guy but a good prospect. Franchy struggled with the adjustment to stateside ball early in the season but is now in short-season ball where he belongs. Disregard the struggles in Fort Wayne to start the season. He shouldn’t have been there. Kennys Vargas is big and fun to watch, as you saw yesterday in the Future’s Game. Here’s Chris Mellen’s report on him: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=125He’s a big time power guy that’ll need it because he’s stuck at first base. (Jeff Moore)
2014-07-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Bat only... what are the upsides of guys like Preston Tucker, Kennys Vargas, Christian Walker, and Dan Vogelbach? I know a couple may profile as DH types, but what kind of ceilings are we looking at?
(MP from Bluegrass State)
At least Tucker can play the OF. For guys at low positions on the defensive spectrum, they really have to hit. Most of these guys should be good for 20-25 homers, but at 1B or LF, that alone doesn't get you much past second-division regular territory. They also have to hit closer to .300 and show strong on base skills, which may or may not happen. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Kennys Vargas be a big league regular, or is he another data point with Calvin Pickering, Kyle Blanks and Walter Young against Very Large Men?
(Mario66 from Pittsburgh)
I'd wager against Vargas working out, but you didn't include Steven Moya (worlds largest human) and Juan Duran. Very upsetting. (Jordan Gorosh)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

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