Biographical

Portrait of Chris Dwyer

Chris Dwyer PRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2016 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 28)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
77.0 4.94 1.48 47 4 5 1 -0.4
Birth Date4-10-1988
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lbs
Age28 years, 2 months, 15 days
BatsR
ThrowsL
2012
0.02013
2014
2015
-0.42016
+proj
DRA-Based WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA. (For previous card version with FAIR_RA, click here.)
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA WARP
2013 KCA MLB 2 0 3.0 2 1 2 0 .271 92 6.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 50% .250 .149 1.00 2.74 0.00 105 4.12 0.0
CareerMLB203.02120.271926.03.00.06.050%.250.1491.002.740.001054.120.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA
2009 IDA Rk 4 4 8.7 12 8 15 1 .280 109 12.4 8.3 1.0 15.5 32% .524 .313 2.30 4.74 4.14
2010 WIL A+ 15 15 84.3 79 33 93 3 .249 106 8.4 3.5 0.3 9.9 47% .328 .243 1.33 2.91 2.99
2010 NWA AA 4 4 17.7 11 10 20 2 .253 114 5.6 5.1 1.0 10.2 37% .220 .219 1.19 4.08 3.05
2011 NWA AA 27 27 141.3 124 78 126 14 .259 111 7.9 5.0 0.9 8.0 43% .283 .250 1.43 4.67 5.60
2012 NWA AA 17 16 85.7 79 44 71 13 .264 99 8.3 4.6 1.4 7.5 40% .269 .287 1.44 5.28 5.25
2012 OMA AAA 9 9 50.3 73 24 33 10 .272 100 13.1 4.3 1.8 5.9 45% .366 .327 1.93 6.43 6.97
2013 KCA MLB 2 0 3.0 2 1 2 0 .271 92 6.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 50% .250 .149 1.00 2.74 0.00
2013 OMA AAA 29 28 159.7 140 72 112 15 .268 94 7.9 4.1 0.8 6.3 39% .262 .254 1.33 4.80 3.55
2014 OMA AAA 28 5 66.0 64 39 65 8 .269 99 8.7 5.3 1.1 8.9 39% .308 .278 1.56 5.21 5.59
2015 OMA AAA 33 10 92.0 99 55 63 4 .270 101 9.7 5.4 0.4 6.2 48% .324 .284 1.67 4.65 4.01

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2013 46 0.3696 0.4348 0.8500 0.6471 0.3103 1.0000 0.6667 0.1500
Career460.36960.43480.850.64710.310310.66670.15

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-04-26 2014-06-01 Minors 36 0 Right Lower Leg Strain Calf - -
2014-04-10 2014-04-20 Minors 10 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2010-07-25 2010-09-19 Minors 56 0 Low Back Soreness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 12 dJack Toffey1 year/$0.5005M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.5005M (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/27/13. DFA by Kansas City 9/1/14. Sent outright to Triple-A 9/11/14.
  • 1 year/$0.49M (2013). Contract purchased by Kansas City 11/20/12. Re-signed by Kansas City 2/15/13.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2009 (4-122) (Clemson). $1.45M signing bonus.

2016 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/15/2015 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 5.1 4.5 0.5 24 14 94.7 81 36 60 11 .245 1.24 3.97 4.32 13.2 1.4
80o 4.6 4.5 0.4 23 13 88.4 81 36 56 11 .257 1.33 4.38 4.76 8.4 0.9
70o 4.2 4.4 0.4 22 12 83.9 81 36 53 11 .267 1.39 4.67 5.08 5.4 0.6
60o 3.9 4.4 0.3 21 12 80.2 81 36 51 11 .274 1.45 4.93 5.36 3.0 0.3
50o 3.6 4.4 0.3 20 11 76.7 80 36 48 11 .282 1.51 5.18 5.63 0.9 0.1
40o 3.4 4.3 0.3 19 11 73.3 79 35 46 11 .289 1.56 5.42 5.89 -0.9 -0.1
30o 3.1 4.2 0.3 18 10 69.8 79 35 44 11 .297 1.63 5.69 6.19 -2.8 -0.3
20o 2.8 4.2 0.2 17 10 65.8 77 34 41 11 .307 1.70 6.01 6.54 -4.6 -0.5
10o 2.4 4.1 0.2 15 9 60.3 76 34 38 11 .320 1.81 6.47 7.03 -6.8 -0.7
Weighted Mean3.64.30.3201176.379354811.2801.505.145.591.20.1

2016 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 6/24/2016 09:25 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 4.6 4.9 0.5 24 14 94.7 81 36 59 11 .244 1.24 4.26 4.18 8.1 0.9
80o 4.2 4.8 0.4 23 13 88.4 81 36 55 11 .256 1.33 4.64 4.58 3.8 0.4
70o 3.9 4.8 0.4 22 12 83.9 81 36 52 11 .266 1.39 4.92 4.87 1.0 0.1
60o 3.6 4.7 0.4 21 12 80.2 81 36 50 11 .274 1.45 5.17 5.13 -1.3 -0.1
50o 3.4 4.7 0.3 20 11 76.7 80 36 48 11 .281 1.51 5.40 5.37 -3.2 -0.3
40o 3.2 4.6 0.3 19 11 73.3 79 35 45 11 .288 1.56 5.64 5.61 -5.0 -0.5
30o 2.9 4.5 0.3 18 10 69.8 79 35 43 11 .296 1.63 5.89 5.87 -6.7 -0.7
20o 2.7 4.4 0.3 17 10 65.8 77 35 41 11 .306 1.70 6.20 6.19 -8.5 -0.9
10o 2.3 4.3 0.2 15 9 60.3 76 34 37 11 .319 1.81 6.63 6.63 -10.7 -1.2
Weighted Mean3.44.60.3201176.379354711.2791.505.375.34-2.9-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
4% 7% 3% 10% 13%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2017294502312949946641542.2851.545.685.679.44.46.11.4-0.6
2018303402011858941581342.2871.545.655.649.54.46.21.4-0.6
2019313401910778238531242.2911.555.635.629.54.46.21.4-0.5
202032340179717634481142.2911.565.665.659.74.36.11.4-0.5
202133340169687232461042.2901.545.635.629.64.36.11.3-0.4
202234330168656931441042.2891.545.645.639.64.36.11.4-0.4
20233533015861652941942.2901.545.645.639.64.36.01.3-0.4
20243623014858622739942.2901.535.645.639.64.26.11.4-0.4
20253723013755592637842.2911.545.645.639.64.26.01.3-0.4

Long-Term Forecast Based on RoS PECOTA (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2017294502212939944641642.2851.535.785.779.54.26.21.5-0.7
201830450251410410848741742.2831.505.605.599.34.26.41.5-0.6
201931561291612312957911842.2911.515.395.389.44.26.71.3-0.5
20203222010643542127842.3151.746.266.2511.34.45.71.7-0.6
202335330158626429451042.2841.495.605.599.24.26.51.4-0.4
202436230148586227401042.2891.545.755.749.74.26.21.6-0.4

Upside By Year

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
out of baseball5.6out of baseballout of baseballout of baseball0.35.6

Previous Year Preseason Upside By Year

Yr Proj 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
2015out of baseball5.6out of baseballout of baseballout of baseball0.35.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 86)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 95 Josh Muecke 2010 0.00 DNP
2 92 Elih Villanueva 2015 0.00 DNP
3 92 Jeff Fulchino 2008 9.64
4 91 Matt Wright 2010 0.00 DNP
5 91 Brad Knox 2010 0.00 DNP
6 90 Justin Fitzgerald 2014 0.00 DNP
7 90 Steven Hensley 2015 0.00 DNP
8 90 Steven Wright 2013 5.40
9 89 Ryan Verdugo 2015 0.00 DNP
10 89 Kevin Mulvey 2013 0.00 DNP
11 89 Sergio Perez 2013 0.00 DNP
12 89 Kenn Kasparek 2014 0.00 DNP
13 88 Brooks Brown 2013 0.00 DNP
14 88 Neal Musser 2009 0.00 DNP
15 88 Travis Banwart 2014 0.00 DNP
16 88 Chad Reineke 2010 0.00 DNP
17 88 Graham Godfrey 2013 0.00 DNP
18 88 J.D. Durbin 2010 0.00 DNP
19 88 Josh Butler 2013 0.00 DNP
20 88 Eric Berger 2014 0.00 DNP
21 88 Steve Green 2006 0.00 DNP
22 88 Red Patterson 2015 0.00 DNP
23 88 Chris Seddon 2012 3.93
24 88 Edgar Martinez 2010 0.00 DNP
25 87 Charlie Haeger 2012 0.00 DNP
26 87 Chase Wright 2011 0.00 DNP
27 87 Ben Hendrickson 2009 0.00 DNP
28 87 Terry Doyle 2014 0.00 DNP
29 87 Kevin Pucetas 2013 0.00 DNP
30 87 Justin Mallett 2010 0.00 DNP
31 87 Craig Westcott 2014 0.00 DNP
32 87 Timothy Bascom 2013 0.00 DNP
33 87 Zach Kroenke 2012 0.00 DNP
34 87 Eric Niesen 2014 0.00 DNP
35 87 Fabio Castro 2013 0.00 DNP
36 86 James Leverton 2014 0.00 DNP
37 86 Josh Hall 2009 0.00 DNP
38 86 Andrew Carraway 2015 0.00 DNP
39 86 Nick Schmidt 2014 0.00 DNP
40 86 Steve Watkins 2007 0.00 DNP
41 86 Willie Collazo 2008 0.00 DNP
42 86 Johnnie Lowe 2013 0.00 DNP
43 86 Mark Rogers 2014 0.00 DNP
44 86 Richie Gardner 2010 0.00 DNP
45 86 Jeff Mandel 2013 0.00 DNP
46 85 Austin Bibens-Dirkx 2013 0.00 DNP
47 85 Jeremy Bleich 2015 0.00 DNP
48 85 Steven Hammond 2010 0.00 DNP
49 85 Matt Peterson 2010 0.00 DNP
50 85 Samuel Deduno 2012 4.56
51 85 Frankie De La Cruz 2012 0.00 DNP
52 85 Miguel Gonzalez 2012 3.25
53 85 Austin Fleet 2015 0.00 DNP
54 84 Travis Blackley 2011 0.00 DNP
55 84 Thad Weber 2013 3.00
56 84 Bryan Evans 2015 0.00 DNP
57 84 Blake Johnson 2013 0.00 DNP
58 84 A.J. Morris 2015 0.00 DNP
59 84 Adrian Alaniz 2012 0.00 DNP
60 84 Bruce Billings 2014 9.00
61 84 Sean Gallagher 2014 0.00 DNP
62 84 Chris Carpenter 2014 0.00 DNP
63 84 Mitch Lively 2014 0.00 DNP
64 84 Edwin Moreno 2009 5.24
65 84 Andrew Kown 2011 0.00 DNP
66 84 Scott Carroll 2013 0.00 DNP
67 84 Shane Komine 2009 0.00 DNP
68 83 Brian Omogrosso 2012 2.57
69 83 Chorye Spoone 2014 0.00 DNP
70 83 L.J. Gagnier 2013 0.00 DNP
71 83 Dan Houston 2015 0.00 DNP
72 83 Mike Meyers 2006 0.00 DNP
73 83 Daniel Davidson 2009 5.40
74 83 Mark Hamburger 2015 0.00 DNP
75 83 Steven Kelly 2008 0.00 DNP
76 83 Ryan Mattheus 2012 2.98
77 83 Brian Slocum 2009 0.00 DNP
78 83 Eddie Bonine 2009 4.98
79 83 Jeremy Hall 2012 0.00 DNP
80 83 Luis Munoz 2010 0.00 DNP
81 83 Dave McKae 2010 0.00 DNP
82 83 Tobi Stoner 2013 0.00 DNP
83 83 Ramon A. Ramirez 2011 0.00 DNP
84 83 Erik Cordier 2014 4.50
85 83 Ryan Sadowski 2011 0.00 DNP
86 82 Mark Serrano 2014 0.00 DNP
87 82 Jacob Pettit 2015 0.00 DNP
88 82 Tom Cochran 2011 0.00 DNP
89 82 Clayton Mortensen 2013 5.64
90 82 Matt DeSalvo 2009 0.00 DNP
91 82 Brandon Hynick 2013 0.00 DNP
92 82 Chris Waters 2009 5.40
93 82 Eude Brito 2007 0.00 DNP
94 82 John Koronka 2009 13.50
95 82 Justin Thomas 2012 8.22
96 82 Rob Scahill 2015 4.40
97 82 Daniel Moskos 2014 0.00 DNP
98 82 Eric Hacker 2011 1.69
99 82 Chris Cody 2012 0.00 DNP
100 82 Jeremy Guthrie 2007 4.00

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2015 Observers once expected lefty Chris Dwyer to work big-league innings for the next great Royals team, but few expected them to be three innings during a September call-up that Dwyer "earned" after posting a 5.59 ERA out of the Omaha bullpen. If there's such a thing as a post-post-post-hype sleeper, Dwyer isn't even that.
2014 Dwyer was part of the Royals' bumper crop of pitching prospects that elevated the Kansas City farm system to “Best in Baseball” a couple seasons ago. As he lacks a plus pitch and carries below-average command, success has eluded him in the upper minors. The good news: His walk rate has declined since his promotion to Double-A in 2010. The bad news: It’s yet to drop below four per nine innings. While he’s started throughout his minor-league career, if he’s ever going to make it in The Show it will likely be out of the bullpen as a long-relief option. He earned a late season call-up in 2013 and could contribute as a bullpen piece in some manner in 2014.
2013 Dwyer was officially booted from the prospect train in 2012. He was "promoted" to Triple-A midseason when the Royals demoted foundering prospect Mike Montgomery, because there's a rule you can't have two derailed prospects pitching for the same team. Dwyer certainly didn't deserve the move to Omaha and predictably struggled when facing more accomplished hitters. He has a plus curve, but has trouble throwing it for strikes. That leads to an over-reliance on his fastball, which International League hitters feasted on. The clock is ticking.
2012 Chris Dwyer was a four-star prospect entering the 2011 season, but he struggled to find his command all year in Double-A, finishing with a 5.0 BB/9. He has a tendency to overthrow at times and has trouble spotting his fastball which leads to the inflated walk totals.
2011 Yet another success story from the Royals' amateur draft spending spree, Dwyer was awarded $1.45 million as a fourth-round pick in 2009 based solely on being a southpaw with impressive velocity. He spent his full-season debut evolving from a thrower into a pitcher by adding an impressive power curveball to his arsenal. In a system loaded with elite portsiders, Dwyer's arm strength ranks with any of them, but he falls well behind them in terms of polish, as the big radar gun readings don't come without considerable effort and occasional control issues. Dwyer needs more time in the oven than the other morsels the Double-A Northwest Arkansas rotation last year, but the end result should be just as tasty.

BP Articles

Chris Dwyer is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
Transaction Analysis: How the AL Division Champs Got HereBP Staff2015-10-08
Playoff Prospectus: A Decade of Planning an Overnight SuccessMiles Wray2014-10-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Kansas City Royals Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-11-22
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-19
The Lineup Card: 9 Breakout CandidatesBaseball Prospectus2013-02-13
The Lineup Card: 10 Picks for the 2015 World ChampsBaseball Prospectus2012-06-14
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: AL Central Prospect PreviewKevin Goldstein2012-03-26
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Notable NRI: AL CentralR.J. Anderson2012-03-15
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Top Nine High-Ceiling Prospect RotationsKevin Goldstein2012-02-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Can The Royals Take The Next Step?Kevin Goldstein2012-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Prospect ResolutionsKevin Goldstein2011-12-28
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Royals Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-11-21
Future Shock: BP's 2011 Top 101 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-02-28


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-05-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)I've been hearing renewed buzz about Chris Dwyer as well as Miguel Almonte. Is there legit help for the Royals pitching staff in the system past Kyle Zimmer? BTW, just read Eyewitness Accounts = GREAT STUFF. THANKS!
(LoyalRoyal from Kansas)
I might like Almonte more than any other arm in the Royals system, and I've been beating that drum since last fall when he stole my soul during instructs. Its a very easy, simple delivery; the arm works very well; the fastball pops in the 92-95 range with comfort; can touch higher; the CH is a major league quality pitch; could end up a 7 on the 2/8; great arm speed on the pitch; good deception and late action; curveball is okay; can show depth at 75-78; slider might make a case; good command profile. I like him. I think he has a shot at developing into a 2/3 type like Zimmer. (Jason Parks)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2016, Chris Dwyer threw 186 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2014, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (88mph) and Curve (77mph), also mixing in a Change (81mph).