Biographical

Portrait of Donald Lutz

Donald Lutz LFReds

Reds Player Cards | Reds Team Audit | Reds Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 25)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .233 9 26 31 2 .243 0.2
Birth Date2-6-1989
Height6' 3"
Weight250 lbs
Age25 years, 8 months, 18 days
BatsL
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
-0.02013
0.12014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2013 CIN 24 34 59 58 5 14 1 0 1 18 1 14 0 0 0 8 2 0 .241 .254 .310 .196 -1.4 1.2 -0.0
2014 CIN 25 28 54 51 2 9 4 0 0 13 3 19 0 0 0 1 0 0 .176 .222 .255 .183 -1.2 0.1 -0.1
Career6211310972350131433000920.211.239.284.190-2.61.3-0.1

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2008 RDS Rk 34 120 .287 .263 .345 .366 .267 .302 92 3.7 3.8 -2.3 -1.3 -0.3 4.6 0.3 4.6 0.3
2009 RDS Rk 16 65 .226 .234 .323 .322 .252 .205 90 -2.4 2.0 -1.3 -2.0 0.5 -1.2 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3
2010 BIL Rk 55 233 .326 .276 .335 .413 .278 .338 96 15.4 8.5 -5 -1.8 2.5 22.0 2.0 22.0 2.0
2011 DYT A 123 506 .304 .255 .322 .380 .264 .375 96 23.8 14.7 -9.1 -1.4 0.1 28.8 2.8 28.8 2.8
2012 BAK A+ 63 277 .300 .269 .332 .423 .274 .301 95 12.3 8.3 -3.9 -5.0 0.7 18.3 1.3 18.3 1.3
2012 PEN AA 40 165 .260 .255 .328 .380 .259 .277 102 -0.1 4.6 -1.6 2.8 -2.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
2012 GER int 4 15 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .333 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 CIN Rk 4 17 .549 .278 .353 .431 .288 .900 102 5.7 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.0 5.9 0.5 5.9 0.5
2012 PER Wnt 11 45 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .457 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 CIN MLB 34 59 .196 .258 .317 .396 .259 .302 101 -3.6 1.6 -0.2 1.2 0.8 -1.4 -0.0 -1.4 -0.0
2013 PEN AA 65 255 .282 .245 .316 .371 .257 .293 98 5.7 6.9 -2.4 2.1 1.4 10.9 1.4 10.9 1.4
2014 CIN MLB 28 54 .183 .256 .309 .396 .261 .281 98 -3.9 1.4 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1
2014 PEN AA 23 97 .382 .262 .321 .396 .268 .394 96 12.2 2.7 -0.7 2.0 1.0 14.3 1.7 14.3 1.7
2014 LOU AAA 52 218 .238 .258 .325 .387 .246 .325 108 -5.5 6.5 -2.4 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 0.0 1.2 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2008 RDS Rk 120 22 27 9 0 1 19 9 21 4 1 .250 .319 .361 .111 .287 4.6 -1.3 0.3
2009 RDS Rk 65 9 10 1 2 1 10 5 14 2 1 .169 .246 .305 .136 .226 -1.2 -2.0 -0.3
2010 BIL Rk 233 36 58 10 4 7 28 21 45 6 2 .286 .364 .478 .192 .326 22.0 -1.8 2.0
2011 DYT A 506 85 140 23 3 20 75 34 125 5 4 .301 .358 .492 .191 .304 28.8 -1.4 2.8
2012 PER Wnt 45 10 17 3 1 1 4 1 7 2 0 .395 .422 .581 .186 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 GER int 15 4 4 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 .308 .400 .385 .077 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 BAK A+ 277 42 67 18 3 17 51 19 71 7 2 .265 .325 .561 .296 .300 18.3 -5.0 1.3
2012 PEN AA 165 17 36 5 1 5 15 13 32 1 3 .242 .315 .389 .148 .260 1.5 2.8 0.5
2012 CIN Rk 17 3 9 2 2 0 5 3 4 0 0 .643 .706 1.071 .429 .549 5.9 -0.2 0.5
2013 PEN AA 255 35 56 12 4 7 30 19 56 4 1 .245 .318 .424 .179 .282 10.9 2.1 1.4
2013 CIN MLB 59 5 14 1 0 1 8 1 14 2 0 .241 .254 .310 .069 .196 -1.4 1.2 -0.0
2014 LOU AAA 218 26 46 9 2 6 33 17 68 4 0 .236 .307 .395 .159 .238 1.2 -1.2 0.0
2014 PEN AA 97 16 32 7 2 6 16 7 17 1 0 .360 .412 .685 .326 .382 14.3 2.0 1.7
2014 CIN MLB 54 2 9 4 0 0 1 3 19 0 0 .176 .222 .255 .078 .183 -1.2 0.1 -0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2013 196 0.4184 0.5816 0.5965 0.7073 0.4912 0.8103 0.3750 0.3947
2014 201 0.4328 0.5350 0.5981 0.6897 0.4123 0.7833 0.3617 0.4019
Career3970.42570.5580.59730.69840.45130.79660.36830.3983

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-08-13 2013-08-22 Minors 9 0 Left Fingers Fracture Index Finger - -
2012-10-26 - WIN - - - Fingers Fracture Fielding - -
2012-05-25 2012-06-26 Minors 32 28 - Abdomen Strain Oblique - -
2009-07-23 2009-09-20 Minors 59 0 - Not Disclosed - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 CIN $
2013 CIN $
2012 CIN $

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 58 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/14.
  • 1 year (2013). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by Cincinnati 11/18/11. Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/12.
  • Signed 2008 as an amateur free agent.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 316 39 80 15 2 13 44 17 78 3 1 .272 .319 .498 .284 18.3 2.0
80o 293 34 70 13 2 11 39 15 74 2 1 .257 .303 .469 .270 12.9 1.4
70o 277 31 64 12 2 10 35 14 71 2 1 .247 .291 .448 .259 9.4 1.0
60o 263 29 58 11 1 9 32 13 69 2 1 .238 .281 .430 .250 6.7 0.7
50o 250 26 53 10 1 8 30 12 66 2 1 .229 .272 .414 .242 4.3 0.5
40o 237 24 49 9 1 8 28 11 64 2 1 .221 .263 .398 .234 2.2 0.2
30o 223 22 44 8 1 7 25 10 61 1 1 .212 .253 .381 .225 0.2 0.0
20o 207 20 39 7 1 6 22 9 57 1 1 .202 .241 .361 .214 -1.9 -0.2
10o 184 16 33 6 1 5 19 7 52 1 0 .187 .225 .333 .200 -4.3 -0.5
Weighted Mean2562855101931126721.233.277.422.2465.40.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
5% 13% 3% 23% 27%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
2015263023667121113815812.240.287.411.2550.64.9-0.4-2.19.3-1.91.0
20162741749881621552211113.230.280.404.2500.75.2-0.5-3.014.9-6.21.3
201728613701282332173311674.225.273.387.2450.20.3-0.9-4.614.9-9.11.9
201829632731342532377351733.229.279.397.2470.41.5-1.0-4.914.9-7.52.0
201930638741362422377341713.229.278.392.2460.2-0.1-1.2-5.214.9-8.62.0
202031616721312322274351632.230.282.392.2470.30.9-1.2-5.214.9-7.72.0
202132607691272222171331591.224.274.380.240-0.1-3.1-1.2-5.314.9-11.61.9
202233624721282222173351681.224.276.382.241-0.1-3.2-1.3-5.614.9-11.22.0
202334622701282222071331680.223.272.374.238-0.4-5.4-1.3-5.714.9-13.32.0

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
3.72.56.32.620.817.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 81)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 90 John Mayberry 2009 .228
2 89 Ryan Goleski 2007 .000 DNP
3 87 Justin Maxwell 2009 .272
4 86 Chris Lubanski 2010 .000 DNP
5 86 Todd Frazier 2011 .273
6 85 Ben Harrison 2007 .000 DNP
7 85 Jeremy Hazelbaker 2013 .000 DNP
8 85 Nelson Perez 2013 .000 DNP
9 84 Brady Shoemaker 2012 .000 DNP
10 84 Joseph Dunigan 2011 .000 DNP
11 84 Brahiam Maldonado 2011 .000 DNP
12 84 Cole Garner 2010 .000 DNP
13 83 Steve Murphy 2009 .000 DNP
14 83 Justin Huber 2008 .246
15 83 Roger Kieschnick 2012 .000 DNP
16 83 Josh Kroeger 2008 .000 DNP
17 83 John Raynor 2009 .000 DNP
18 83 Collin DeLome 2011 .000 DNP
19 82 Brandon Tripp 2010 .000 DNP
20 82 Marvin Lowrance 2010 .000 DNP
21 82 Brett Carroll 2008 .103
22 82 Jacob Butler 2008 .000 DNP
23 82 Kent Matthes 2012 .000 DNP
24 82 Mark Shorey 2010 .000 DNP
25 81 Tyler Henson 2013 .000 DNP
26 81 Scott Van Slyke 2012 .188
27 81 Michael Bianucci 2011 .000 DNP
28 81 Matt Clark 2012 .000 DNP
29 81 Michael Hernandez 2009 .000 DNP
30 81 Scott Cousins 2010 .270
31 81 Matt Den Dekker 2013 .211
32 81 Brandon Jones 2009 .302
33 81 Grant Green 2013 .236
34 80 Brad Glenn 2012 .000 DNP
35 80 Matthew Spencer 2011 .000 DNP
36 80 Jake Fox 2008 .000 DNP
37 80 Brian Mc Fall 2009 .000 DNP
38 80 Jeremy Moore 2012 .000 DNP
39 80 Alex Castellanos 2012 .216
40 80 Derrick Mitchell 2012 .000 DNP
41 80 Brian Dopirak 2009 .000 DNP
42 80 Joe Gaetti 2007 .000 DNP
43 80 Ronnie Welty 2013 .000 DNP
44 80 Brandon Guyer 2011 .220
45 80 David Winfree 2011 .000 DNP
46 80 Matt Esquivel 2008 .000 DNP
47 80 J.T. Hall 2009 .000 DNP
48 80 Delwyn Young 2007 .336
49 80 Brad Snyder 2007 .000 DNP
50 80 Allen Craig 2010 .270
51 80 Blake Smith 2013 .000 DNP
52 79 Caleb Stewart 2007 .000 DNP
53 79 Lucas Duda 2011 .314
54 79 Alex Burg 2013 .000 DNP
55 79 Joel Guzman 2010 .000 DNP
56 79 Jonathan Greene 2011 .000 DNP
57 79 Thomas Giles 2009 .000 DNP
58 79 Ryan Roberson 2009 .000 DNP
59 79 Daniel Dorn 2010 .000 DNP
60 79 Steve Susdorf 2011 .000 DNP
61 79 Raul Reyes 2012 .000 DNP
62 79 Carlo Testa 2012 .000 DNP
63 79 Jon Gaston 2012 .000 DNP
64 78 Justin Nelson 2008 .000 DNP
65 78 Jason Pridie 2009 .000 DNP
66 78 Kiel Roling 2012 .000 DNP
67 78 Corey Hart 2007 .298
68 78 Chris Pettit 2010 .000 DNP
69 78 Brock Peterson 2009 .000 DNP
70 78 Ernesto Mejia 2011 .000 DNP
71 78 Danny Valencia 2010 .261
72 78 Leonard Davis 2009 .000 DNP
73 78 Russ Canzler 2011 .357
74 78 Joe Mahoney 2012 -.008
75 78 Nick Akins 2013 .000 DNP
76 78 Aaron Cunningham 2011 .234
77 78 Justin Bloxom 2013 .000 DNP
78 78 Nick Francis 2011 .000 DNP
79 78 Evan Gattis 2012 .000 DNP
80 78 Kellen Kulbacki 2011 .000 DNP
81 78 Thomas Collaro 2008 .000 DNP
82 78 Rebel Ridling 2011 .000 DNP
83 78 Erik Lis 2009 .000 DNP
84 78 Jeremy Synan 2012 .000 DNP
85 78 Cody Overbeck 2011 .000 DNP
86 78 T.J. Mittelstaedt 2013 .000 DNP
87 78 Ryan Patterson 2008 .000 DNP
88 78 Tyler Townsend 2013 .000 DNP
89 78 Nick Ciolli 2013 .000 DNP
90 78 Dennis Raben 2013 .000 DNP
91 78 Rhyne Hughes 2009 .000 DNP
92 78 Stefan Gartrell 2009 .000 DNP
93 77 Chad Tracy 2011 .000 DNP
94 77 John Shelby 2011 .000 DNP
95 77 Ryan Harvey 2010 .000 DNP
96 77 Chris Swauger 2012 .000 DNP
97 77 Ben Guez 2012 .000 DNP
98 77 Gabriel Martinez 2008 .000 DNP
99 77 Marc Krauss 2013 .228
100 77 Tim Wheeler 2013 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .267 .267 .267 .167
11 vs R (Multi) .233 .250 .326 .204
18 Split (Multi) -.034 -.017 .059 .038
19 LgAvg (Multi) .027 .038 .071 .034
30 vs L (2013) .267 .267 .267 .167
31 vs R (2013) .233 .250 .326 .204
38 Split (2013) -.034 -.017 .059 .038
39 LgAvg (2013) .026 .037 .071 .034

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Lutz is an oldish first base/left field type out of Germany who focused on hockey in his youth before turning to baseball. He is a very large man who can hit the ball a long way against inferior pitching, as he did in the Arizona Fall League after a solid regular-season campaign that was interrupted mid-summer by a strained oblique incurred while swinging the bat. The power is nice, but Lutz plays a position that demands more than he can offer. Good velocity will beat him, and the higher he advances, the more of that he will see.
2012 Donald Lutz may well be the best prospect out of Germany, but he has to pick up the finer points of first-base play, he struggles against lefties, and he's years away from being ready.

BP Articles

Donald Lutz is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessInterleague Report: Week 19Jeff Quinton2014-08-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessInterleague Report: Week 18Jeff Quinton2014-07-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessInterleague Report: Week 17Jeff Quinton2014-07-21
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Chisenhall Messes With TexasChris Mosch2014-06-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersBen Murphy2014-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersJared Weiss2014-02-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-26
BP Unfiltered: Jeff Keppinger Finally Works a Walk, and a Disar Awards UpdateBen Lindbergh2013-05-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 13, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-13
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 30, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-30
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-29
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2013 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2013-03-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of March 22-24Zach Mortimer2013-03-25
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-03-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of February 27Jason Martinez2013-02-28
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Monsters, or Men Wearing Masks?Jason Parks2012-10-24


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2012-11-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Donald Lutz and what does the future hold for him ?
(William from Pensacola, FL)
Lutz is a bit of a hacker; very aggressive early in counts, looking to hit the fastball. He has plus raw power, but the lack of approach holds him back. He's very strong, but a mistake hitter. Below-average defensively. I think he's an org guy. (Jason A. Churchill)
2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Donald Lutz is tearing up the AFL right now; he is near the top of almost every hitting category. What is his ceiling?
(pmuehlenkamp from Cincinnati)
I have an article about Lutz (and a few other AFL warriors) coming out tomorrow on BP.

Okay, here's the deal. I've answered 72 questions, but I have 165 left in the queue. I need to run a quick errand in preparation for my trip tomorrow, but I'd like to continue this chat when I get back. I'm going to step away for 30 minutes (max), but I'll answer for another few hours when I return. Deal? Stop back by. (Jason Parks)
2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)I asked KG on twitter, but is Donald Lutz (Reds High A 1B) a legit power prospect or a fringe guy? Already at 10 HRs, albeit in the offense-boosting Cal League
(Johnny from SD)
And he didn't answer you? Man, I'm going to have to talk to that guy. He never answers questions from readers. (That was a joke. He answers a million questions from readers. Literally a million, and 99% of them are about when Anthony Rizzo is going to get called up.)

Here's Kevin's succinct response: "Cal League guy. Scouts aren't impressed." I'm just relaying questions from readers to KG now. This must be what being Twitter feels like. (Ben Lindbergh)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC