Biographical

Portrait of Carson Sands

Carson Sands PCubs

Cubs Player Cards | Cubs Team Audit | Cubs Depth Chart

2017 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 22)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
61.3 7.59 1.86 20 3 6 0 -2.3
Birth Date3-28-1995
Height6' 3"
Weight205 lbs
Age22 years, 4 months, 23 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2013
2014
2015
2016
-2.32017
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2014 CUB Rk 9 4 19.0 3 1 0 15 7 20 0 .000 7.1 3.3 0.0 9.5 0% .306 .000 1.16 3.17 1.89 93 3.65 97.4
2015 EUG A- 14 14 57.3 3 4 0 62 21 41 0 .269 90 9.7 3.3 0.0 6.4 53% .332 .280 1.45 3.58 3.92 113 6.09 114.1
2016 SBN A 21 14 74.7 7 4 1 79 42 51 4 .258 100 9.5 5.1 0.5 6.1 37% .312 .287 1.62 4.73 5.91 138 11.47 138.5
2017 SBN A 3 3 6.3 0 3 0 12 14 5 1 .256 103 17.1 19.9 1.4 7.1 46% .440 .448 4.11 11.07 24.16 146 12.30 270.8
2017 EUG A- 1 0 2.0 1 0 0 2 2 1 1 .259 9.0 9.0 4.5 4.5 29% .167 .468 2.00 15.34 13.50 119 9.66 190.8
2017 CUB Rk 4 4 11.7 0 1 0 8 11 10 0 .259 99 6.2 8.5 0.0 7.7 60% .267 .234 1.63 5.62 3.09 119 8.75 154.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2017 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 4 6 0.2 22 16 77.5 80 44 21 16 .240 1.61 6.51 6.96 -14.3 -1.6
80o 3.3 5.9 0.2 20 14 69.9 79 43 19 15 .255 1.74 7.07 7.58 -17.4 -1.9
70o 2.8 5.7 0.1 18 13 64.7 77 42 17 15 .266 1.85 7.48 8.04 -19.2 -2.1
60o 2.5 5.6 0.1 17 12 60.4 75 42 16 15 .275 1.94 7.85 8.44 -20.4 -2.2
50o 2.1 5.4 0.1 16 12 56.4 74 41 15 14 .284 2.03 8.20 8.83 -21.3 -2.3
40o 1.8 5.3 0.1 15 11 52.6 72 40 14 14 .293 2.12 8.56 9.23 -22.0 -2.4
30o 1.5 5.1 0.1 14 10 48.6 69 38 13 13 .303 2.22 8.96 9.68 -22.6 -2.5
20o 1.2 4.9 0.1 13 9 44.1 67 37 12 13 .315 2.34 9.44 10.21 -22.9 -2.5
10o 0.8 4.6 0 11 8 38.1 62 34 10 12 .331 2.53 10.13 11 -22.9 -2.5
Weighted Mean2.15.30.1161155.672401514.2822.008.148.76-20.6-2.2

2017 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 8/19/2017 12:12 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 3.9 6.1 0.2 22 16 77.4 80 44 21 16 .240 1.61 6.55 6.97 -14.6 -1.6
80o 3.3 6 0.2 20 14 69.9 79 43 19 15 .255 1.75 7.10 7.58 -17.5 -1.9
70o 2.8 5.8 0.1 18 13 64.7 77 42 17 15 .266 1.85 7.52 8.03 -19.2 -2.1
60o 2.4 5.7 0.1 17 12 60.3 75 42 16 15 .275 1.94 7.88 8.44 -20.5 -2.2
50o 2.1 5.5 0.1 16 12 56.4 74 41 15 14 .284 2.03 8.23 8.82 -21.4 -2.3
40o 1.8 5.4 0.1 15 11 52.6 72 40 14 14 .293 2.12 8.59 9.22 -22.1 -2.4
30o 1.5 5.2 0.1 14 10 48.6 69 38 13 13 .303 2.22 8.98 9.66 -22.6 -2.5
20o 1.2 5 0.1 13 9 44.1 67 37 12 13 .314 2.34 9.46 10.2 -23.0 -2.5
10o 0.8 4.6 0 11 8 38.1 62 34 10 12 .331 2.52 10.15 10.97 -22.9 -2.5
Weighted Mean2.15.40.1161155.672401514.2822.008.178.76-20.7-2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2017 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2018232501510667355431430.3041.947.258.3710.07.55.91.9-1.6
201924240149636853481330.3131.916.948.019.77.56.81.8-1.3
2020252501811778764571530.3261.966.847.9010.27.56.71.8-1.6
2021262601912839368611730.3201.946.998.0710.17.46.61.8-1.8
2022275903321144153901132830.3121.696.026.959.65.67.11.8-1.8
202328130107445433301030.3331.967.058.1411.06.76.12.0-1.0
2024292401510665447621130.2731.545.646.517.46.48.51.5-0.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 91)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 96 Josh Smoker 2011 0.00 DNP
2 96 Brandon Hamilton 2011 0.00 DNP
3 96 Jose Flores 2015 0.00 DNP
4 95 Ricardo Ferrer 2012 0.00 DNP
5 95 Mitch Gueller 2016 0.00 DNP
6 95 Alberto Zazueta 2009 0.00 DNP
7 95 Alonzo Gonzalez 2014 0.00 DNP
8 95 Anthony Capra 2009 0.00 DNP
9 95 Jack McGeary 2011 0.00 DNP
10 94 Ryan Miller 2009 0.00 DNP
11 94 Jonathan Musser 2014 0.00 DNP
12 94 Daniel Berlind 2010 0.00 DNP
13 94 Leonard Lorenzo 2014 0.00 DNP
14 93 Gary Daley 2008 0.00 DNP
15 93 Mason Hope 2014 0.00 DNP
16 93 Edlando Seco 2011 0.00 DNP
17 93 David Buchanan 2011 0.00 DNP
18 93 Jordan Cooper 2011 0.00 DNP
19 92 Jake Diekman 2009 0.00 DNP
20 92 Dovydas Neverauskas 2015 0.00 DNP
21 92 Tyler Wilson 2012 0.00 DNP
22 92 Gabriel Castellanos 2016 0.00 DNP
23 92 Heath Fillmyer 2016 0.00 DNP
24 92 Michael Kirkman 2009 0.00 DNP
25 92 Caleb Brewer 2011 0.00 DNP
26 91 Sheng-An Kuo 2008 0.00 DNP
27 91 Amir Garrett 2014 0.00 DNP
28 91 Ambioris Hidalgo 2013 0.00 DNP
29 91 Christopher McKenzie 2012 0.00 DNP
30 91 Charles Kaalekahi 2014 0.00 DNP
31 91 Keynan Middleton 2016 0.00 DNP
32 91 Keaton Hayenga 2011 0.00 DNP
33 91 Bradley Clapp 2008 0.00 DNP
34 91 Brad Meyers 2008 0.00 DNP
35 91 Julius Dettrich 2011 0.00 DNP
36 90 Clay Holmes 2015 0.00 DNP
37 90 Tyler Sample 2011 0.00 DNP
38 90 Oscar Castro 2011 0.00 DNP
39 90 Aaron Breit 2008 0.00 DNP
40 90 Nick McCully 2011 0.00 DNP
41 90 Mike Ramlow 2008 0.00 DNP
42 90 Jacob Dahlstrand 2014 0.00 DNP
43 90 Ricardo Taveras 2010 0.00 DNP
44 90 Angel Gonzalez 2011 0.00 DNP
45 90 Joshua Mueller 2011 0.00 DNP
46 90 Enrique Burgos 2013 0.00 DNP
47 90 Dustin Sasser 2008 0.00 DNP
48 90 Marcus Hatley 2010 0.00 DNP
49 90 Matthew Miller 2011 0.00 DNP
50 90 Jake Sisco 2014 0.00 DNP
51 90 Robin Leyer 2015 0.00 DNP
52 90 Mike Rayl 2011 0.00 DNP
53 89 Jonathan Vargas 2011 0.00 DNP
54 89 Tim Stronach 2008 0.00 DNP
55 89 Danny Jimenez 2012 0.00 DNP
56 89 Feliberto Sanchez 2016 0.00 DNP
57 89 Curtis Petersen 2012 0.00 DNP
58 89 David Phelps 2009 0.00 DNP
59 89 Kevin Chavez 2011 0.00 DNP
60 89 Hunter Cervenka 2012 0.00 DNP
61 89 George Jensen 2012 0.00 DNP
62 89 Matthew Spann 2013 0.00 DNP
63 89 Ben Henry 2011 0.00 DNP
64 89 Elvin Ramirez 2010 0.00 DNP
65 89 Kirk Wetmore 2011 0.00 DNP
66 89 Brandon Taylor 2008 0.00 DNP
67 89 Jeremy Haynes 2008 0.00 DNP
68 89 Mike Lehmann 2011 0.00 DNP
69 89 Paul Clemens 2010 0.00 DNP
70 89 Edgar De La Rosa 2013 0.00 DNP
71 89 Michael Bowman 2009 0.00 DNP
72 89 Ian Dickson 2013 0.00 DNP
73 89 Robert Aviles 2014 0.00 DNP
74 89 Cole Kimball 2008 0.00 DNP
75 88 Raynel Velette 2013 0.00 DNP
76 88 Jheyson Manzueta 2012 0.00 DNP
77 88 Jordan Norberto 2009 0.00 DNP
78 88 Darin Gorski 2010 0.00 DNP
79 88 Christopher Kirsch 2014 0.00 DNP
80 88 Glenn Gibson 2010 0.00 DNP
81 88 Chase Edwards 2016 0.00 DNP
82 88 Robinson Fabian 2008 0.00 DNP
83 88 Tyler Cloyd 2009 0.00 DNP
84 88 Jorge L. Rodriguez 2016 0.00 DNP
85 88 Mark Pawelek 2009 0.00 DNP
86 88 Antonio Noguera 2010 0.00 DNP
87 88 Evan Rutckyj 2014 0.00 DNP
88 88 Ernesto Silva 2014 0.00 DNP
89 88 Bryan Evans 2009 0.00 DNP
90 88 Lino Martinez 2015 0.00 DNP
91 88 Alexander Smit 2008 0.00 DNP
92 88 Noel De La Cruz 2014 0.00 DNP
93 88 Tyler Gagnon 2011 0.00 DNP
94 88 Tom Vessella 2008 0.00 DNP
95 88 Gregory Infante 2010 0.00
96 88 Ranfi Casimiro 2015 0.00 DNP
97 88 Justin Ferrell 2016 0.00 DNP
98 88 Houston Summers 2010 0.00 DNP
99 88 J.R. Bradley 2014 0.00 DNP
100 88 Trevor Shull 2013 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2016 Carson Sands is a lefty with a strong curve and changeup who possesses all the tools necessary to hold a place on the upper end of the Cubs' rotation someday in the distant, distant, distant future.
2015 Carson Sands is a big-bonus fourth-rounder who impressed many during his short initial stint in pro ball. His clean mechanics and recent jump in velocity and overall stuff make him an intriguing arm to follow.

BP Articles

Carson Sands is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
The GM Trade Game!: Trading Jonathan LucroyBP Staff2016-07-22
The GM Trade Game!: Trading Jonathan LucroySam Miller2016-07-22
Monday Morning Ten Pack: July 18, 2016BP Prospect Staff2016-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Trade Game: Carlos GomezBaseball Prospectus2015-07-23
Notes from the Field: July 8, 2017BP Prospect Staff2015-07-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2016Craig Goldstein2015-02-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2016Ben Carsley2015-02-24
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsMark Anderson2015-02-17
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsBP Prospect Staff2015-02-17
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsJeff Moore2015-02-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Top 50 Dynasty League Signees: 2014 Draft ClassBret Sayre2015-01-06
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Chicago Cubs Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2014-11-14
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Chicago Cubs Top 10 ProspectsNick J. Faleris2014-11-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTop 50 Dynasty League Prospects: 2014 Draft EditionBret Sayre2014-06-11
Scouting the Draft: 2014 Draft Favorites By RoundNick J. Faleris2014-06-11
This article requires BP Premium accessScouting the Draft: 2014 Draft: Left-Handers to KnowNick J. Faleris2014-06-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPerfect Game Presents: 2014 MLB Draft Rankings: Nos. 1-100Allan Simpson2014-05-30
BP Unfiltered: Under Armour All-American Game: Note SheetNick J. Faleris2013-08-24
Scouting the Draft: Summer Circuit: PG National Showcase, Part INick J. Faleris2013-06-21


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2016-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you think Carson Sands' struggles on the mound will translate into next year? Do you think they will keep him in South Bend to start off the year?
(Max M from 419)
I see Sands as bullpen arm long term, his fastball/change up combination was great, but the curveball left a ton to be desired. The fastball had run and sink to it in the 89-91 range, with his change up having great separation from the fastball and solid movement. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts the year off at South Bend again if they kept him as a starter, though. (Midwest League Wrap Up)
2016-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Since Brendan said you saw everyone, what are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Saw Mr. Crawford had some nice things to sayin the Ten Pack earlier today.
(Steve from PHI)
Ha. I didn't see quite everyone, but Cease is going to be a really fun guy to follow. There's not a prayer that his talent was synonymous with the sixth round--his arm injury at the time had something to do with it.

Additionally, I just want to use Cease as an example of the Cubs masterful job in the 2014 draft. They shocked everyone with Schwarber at #4--firmly (and rightfully) knowing how he could hit, position be damned. That alone was good, but what's more: they took the money saved from Schwarber--as well as Maryland's Jake Stinnett (who was a top SR sign in that draft, I believe) and Mark Zangunis from Virginia Tech (though I'm not sure how much of a haircut Zangunis took) to pool together money for Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease. That's pwn-age right there.

I have seen Cease as a HS junior, a HS senior, and as a professional as well. The armstrength is for real, as we all know. As a result of that arm-speed, the spin is also for real. It's two plus pitches, definitely a guy who is capable of generating loads of strikeouts.

I won't put him in the bullpen absolutely, especially not right now, and especially because some aspects of his delivery I think aren't massively effort-filled. However, mechanically, there isn't a ton of cohesion between his upper and lower halves; he's never been much of a natural strike-thrower. He'll be really fascinating to monitor. Can't teach this type of raw stuff. (Adam McInturff)
2015-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)I wasn't the one who stole your laptop. Rank the following Cubs pitching prospects by upside: Jake Stinnett, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease.
(Steve from Chicago)
Thank you for not stealing my laptop. Cease, Sands, Steele, Stinnett. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-06-15 19:00:00 (link to chat)Of CHC lower-level SP prospects, which guys have a shot, emphasis on shot, @ being a #3 or better?
(Matt from CHI)
There are plenty of pitchers who have the pitches, and thus potential, to reach that kind of ceiling (like Corey Black). Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Jake Stinnett all could get there, although the safe bet is that none of them will. (Brendan Gawlowski)
2015-03-12 15:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Carson Sands has #2 potential?
(oxpaulo from WV)
According to our prospect guys, he does. Wish I could offer more. (Andrew Koo)
2015-03-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Barreto pretty much came from out of the blue last year what prospect for this year would be the new Barreto
(John from ct)
He's too well known to be out of the blue entirely, but it seems like everybody talks about Carson Sands as though he's already a top-100 prospect, so I'll speculate that next year he will be. (Sam Miller)
2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)1st year player draft : do you like Carson Sands or Jake Stinnett, or leave them in the oven to bake longer?
(RotoLando from Cloud City)
Man, Sands isn't in the conversation yet for me. I'd roll with Stinnett and wait until Sands can legally drink. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-11-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which pair of draftees would you prefer to have: Mitch Keller / Trey Supak or Carson Sands / Justin Steele?
(Mario66 from Pittsburgh)
I love this question. My suggested allotments for each pairing was separated by about $400 K, with Keller/Supak getting the nod. Sands has best probability, I think Keller has the best blend of potential impact stuff and likelihood to stick as a starter. (NL Central Top 10s With Nick Faleris)
2014-06-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who is someone that will be popped in the late 1st/sandwich rd that in 3-4 years we won't believe how he lasted that long?
(Shawn from Office)
It's a long list considering the tight clustering of talent and team-to-team variation on the boards. Some of my favorite talents that I don't see readers often asking about (which I take to mean they aren't getting big national pub) are Michael Kopech (RHP, Mt. Pleasant (TX)), Mitch Keller (RHP, Xavier (IA)), Alex Blandino (3B/2B, Stanford), Chase Vallot (C, St. Thomas More (LA)), Carson Sands (N. Florida Christian (FL)), and Sean Reid-Foley (Sandalwood (FL)).

If by chance Touki or Chavis fall, that could be a steal, as well. (Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.