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Chat: Derek Carty

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday May 17, 2012 1:00 PM ET chat session with Derek Carty.

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The BP Fantasy Manager stops by to tell you what moves you should be making.

Derek Carty: Good afternoon, everyone! Glad to be here on a beautiful May day. Let's get started!

LoyalRoyal (Kansas): Any updates on how soon Hank Conger will be back? If soon, do you see him coming up quickly while Iannetta is on the DL?

Derek Carty: Word is he should be back playing in a week and a half or so. As long as the Halos like what they see, I think he'll be in LA shortly after that. With the team needing to make waves, they can't be happy with Bobby Wilson as their catcher.

david (tampa): Putting aside injury concerns is Freese an elite 3b? I have my doubts.

Derek Carty: As do I. I guess it depends how you define elite, but I'd struggle to find a definition where the answer is "yes." His power pace will slow, making him more of a .270-.280, 20-25 HR type.

McPaine (St. Paul): Who are some prospects at RP that you like (are there any)?

Derek Carty: There's rarely such a thing as a RP "prospect." The good pitching prospects generally start out in the rotation, and if they can't hack it, they move into the bullpen. That said, there are certainly some relievers in Triple-A that could prove valuable to an AL or NL-only team. Don't count on them for saves anytime soon, but they could provide good ratios. A few off the top of my head: Eduardo Sanchez was just recalled by St. Louis and has good stuff. Juan Abreu is interesting in Houston if he can improve his control. I like Zach Putnam for Colorado. Nick Hagadone's been up and down for Cleveland this year. Jose Ceda is out for 2012 (Tommy John) but is interesting next year, perhaps even getting in the saves mix at some point.

phin (Mke, WI): How soon do I stash Trevor Bauer?

Derek Carty: Depends on the league type. How deep, how many bench spots, and I assume non-keeper?

DF (NC): Is Randy Wolf finally cooked? He has been an effective innungs-eating SP previously despite declining peripherals, but he has been awful this year.

Derek Carty: Maybe not cooked -- he's not this bad -- but an innings-eater is about the best you can hope for with him. Mid-4.00s ERA.

jbangers (Wisconsin): Are we starting Cahill today @ COL?

Derek Carty: Only in very deep mixed and NL-only.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Why doesn't Y.Molina not seem to get the fantasy recognition as a top 5 catcher?

Derek Carty: Probably because he's not a top 5 catcher :D Molina is certainly good, but he has always gotten more recognition for his defense than offense, especially since he hasn't showed much power until last year. He's likely a top 10 guy, but I don't think he's top 5.

Sara (Tacoma): Is this the best buy low moment on Pujols ever, or should we all be worried?

Derek Carty: There are reasons to be a bit worried -- Sam Miller wrote a good article recently (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16628) -- but I wouldn't be shy about buying low on him. Even if he's entering his decline phase, he should still be a top 5 or 10 fantasy player the rest of the way.

Yadier Molina (St. Louis): If I'm not a Top 5 fantasy catcher, it's because I'm No. 6 or 7. I'm currently ranked No. 2 in Yahoo's game, and I came in seventh last year, an eyelash after Wieters. So I agree with Blue Jays fan - Molina is still a little underrated here and there. And I'm proven as durable and high-volume at a position where not many players are.

Derek Carty: Sorry, just don't think he's a top five. I mean, you said yourself that Molina was seventh last year in a career year, and second in May isn't exactly like second in September. I don't debate that he's good, but he doesn't hold up when compared to guys like McCann and Napoli and Montero that can hit for a decent average with a lot of power.

tommy (san jose): Thoughts on Friedrich? Already have Nicasio- not dying to own another Rockie SP.

Derek Carty: A couple of Friedrich questions, so I’ll field them together…

rapid eye movement (springfield): What do we make of Christian Friedrich going forward? Obviously the early returns are outliers, but what level does he settle in at? And how do you anticipate his style of pitching will play in Coors?

Derek Carty: Friedrich has had some great matchups thus far, inflating his numbers, but he is an intriguing play going forward. He reportedly worked with Cliff Lee about making his motion more repeatable this off-season, (in addition to soliciting advice from Jamie Moyer and Mike Hampton), and it appears it has helped his control. He also has interesting stuff. There’s little horizontal component to his game, but he gets tons of vertical separation with his pitches, forcing hitters to change their eye level. His 92-mph fastball rises a foot, and his 12-to-6 curve breaks close to a foot. He throws a sharp slider in between and a show-me change. The only problem is that he'll be flyball pitcher (especially if he keeps throwing his fastball 65 percent of the time), which isn't great for Coors. Overall, I think Friedrich has a solid chances to succeed, especially if you can pick and choose his match-ups.

michaelmcduffe (ottawa): Any thoughts on the Giants 'handling' of Brandon Belt?

Derek Carty: Well, I think it's safe to say they could be handling him better. They bounced him around a lot last year, but at least he's getting regular ABs against righties this year. That said, unless the scouts see something in his swing to suggest he'd be awful against lefties, they should be playing him every single day. If this guy could potentially be a big part of your future, you need to find out for sure whether he can handle pitchers of both hands.

Phil (miami): Burnett's been brilliant and, well, devastating. Which side of him are you throwing down with?

Derek Carty: The brilliant side. The 12 ER outing was a killer, but I like what I see from him aside from that. Especially in NL-only leagues, he's a great play going forward.

Don H. (Oak Park): I have most of my FAAB budgeted in my keeper league for late-season prospect call ups. Guys like Hultzen, Bauer, Skaggs, and Arenado are all taken already. Who's a good bet to be called up that's not on everyone's radar (that's worth a sizable bid)?

Derek Carty: I'm assuming you can't bid on guys in-season until they're recalled? Anthony Rizzo, Jed Gyorko, Julio Teheran are pretty good bets for call-ups this year. Maybe Andrelton Simmons if Pastornicky fails. Leonys Martin could be up at some point late, especially if we see some Texas injuries (Hamilton and Cruz are bound to go down at some point). Wil Myers could get a September call-up. Matt Harvey could too.

David (San Diego): Keeper League...looking to move LaHair for some SP. Who would be some of your favorite mid-level starters to target right now? Points league with emphasis on ERA/quality starts. Always looking for upside but need current yr production as well.

Derek Carty: Maybe try Brandon Morrow, Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Sale.

phin (Mke, WI): What chance does Luebke pitch again this year? i could drop him and stash werth on the DL...

Derek Carty: Do it. I like Werth to have more value this year. TJ is seeming more and more likely for Luebke

Renfei (DC): Over/under 34.5 home runs for Edwin Encarnacion?

Derek Carty: I love me some Edwin. At this point, given that he already has 13, 34.5 would mean about 4.75 per month from here on out. I'll take the slight over.

joey (n.y.): Any update on Ellsbury--Some time in June?

Derek Carty: Apparently it depends upon how quickly he progresses, but it sounds like it'll be late June, if it's June.

Jimbo (High School Psych class): How would you rank the following SS for the rest of this year? Aybar, Alcides Escobar, Dozier? Does that ranking change for next year?

Derek Carty: Aybar and Escobar are close. I'll take Escobar, Aybar, Dozier for this year and next.

joey (n.y.): Dozier looks pretty good-Whats does his ROS looks like..

Derek Carty: Dozier does look good so far, and my two AL-only teams are loving having him. That said, he doesn't have a high ceiling. He could hit .280, but double-digit homers and steals over a full-season is about the best we can expect.

Pablo (NJ): Over/under 30 home runs for Adam Dunn?

Derek Carty: Definitely over.

George (KC): Before recommending Leonys Martin, note that he just had thumb surgery and is out for a couple months.

Derek Carty: Yes, true. That reader was looking for long-term plays, though, so if Martin gets a September call, he could be picked up in that keeper league.

phin (Mke, WI): what's wrong with venters this year (if anything)? i traded for him 2 weeks ago and he's getting shelled.

Derek Carty: No need to worry. He should be fine. Peripherals and stuff look good.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Does Farnsworth get his closer's job back?

Derek Carty: It's hard to say with Rodney pitching like this. I can't imagine Rodney will be this good for much longer, but teams don't usually like to rock the boat in these kinds of situations unless you're dealing with a top-notch guy.

Matt (Harvey, IL (really)): If you would be so kind, order these guys for best fantasy line going forward (standard scoring): Zimmerman, Bumgarner, Sale

Derek Carty: Start-by-start I probably like Sale best, but his inevitable innings cap is going to put him last. Bumgarner, Zimmermann, Sale.

ljmorris20 (AZ): With profar killing it in AA do you see him in AAA next year and maybe an ETA of late next year?

Derek Carty: Yeah, it's possible he could get a late-season 2013 call-up if he continues playing well.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): What's a realistic date that we can expect Bauer to come up?

Derek Carty: A June call-up wouldn't surprise me much.

LoyalRoyal (Kansas): 5x5 OBP league, who wins this deal: Motte and Matt Moore for Aybar and Paulino?

Derek Carty: I'll take Motte and Moore

Don Zilla (NYC): how about a date for Arenado if you had to guess?

Derek Carty: Very soon. It's possible he could be up within a couple weeks.

Renfei (DC): Jose Altuve's current triple slash is .309/.358/.446, where do you see it by season's end?

Derek Carty: Not far off from it. .300/.350/.410?

faztradamus (Chicago): This season I drafted Bauer, Bundy, and Gary Brown with my first 3 dynasty picks, taking my two favorite prospects and CF that I badly needed. Did I make a mistake passing on Gerrit Cole with my third pick, or did I make the right move in filling my need?

Derek Carty: Maybe a small mistake. With prospects, I don't like to worry too much about need, but Brown is certainly a great prospect himself.

Eric Hosmer (KC): I will turn it around this year right? What will that look like by the end of the year?

Derek Carty: Yes. Maybe something like a .270, 20-HR pace.

Jake (Springfield): What do you make of Billingsley in a 14-team mixed league? I know he's no all-star but I can find a taker for him, even for just a utility OF type.

Derek Carty: I assume you mean "can't." He's worth owning, but his value is very limited in a league like that. In mixed leagues, especially with pitchers, people don't generally like trading for lower-tier options. They run the "pitchers are risky" rhetoric through their heads and think they can approximate that value with a waiver wire guy if need be.

Luke (AZ): Does Mike Olt get a call this year to play 1b? Moreland isn't the future in Texas.

Derek Carty: Definitely a possibility. I have him stashed in the CBS AL experts league, though I also own Moreland. I like Moreland and think he's better than most credit him for, but perception is everything.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Will Heyward ever realize his superstar potential?

Derek Carty: Yes. For sure. I'm still holding out hope it happens this year. There have been some flashes of greatness. Even if not, he's still likely to exceed his draft day value.

gorillamonsoon (California): Two quick ones: Your thoughts on whether LaPorta comes up this season and his probabilty of success AND Doumit vs. Fowler, who will post the better offensive numbers the rest of the way? Thanks for the chat.

Derek Carty: LaPorta has a very good chance of coming up, probably soon, with Kotchman playing so poorly. It's hard to say with him. He's always looked like he had the tools to succeed, but he's never been able to hit at the major league level. Temper expectations, but he's certainly worth a flyer, especially in AL-only.

Taking position scarcity into account, Doumit.

crile2 (Boston): Cruz Masterson Hart and Nolasco... what combiantion of those players do you think is fair to get Hellickson? (I would be getting Hellickson)

Derek Carty: I wouldn't chase Hellickson. He's once again beating his peripherals over the head with his surface numbers, and it's not going to continue. I still think he's better than those peripherals indicate, but at this point he's going to cost more than he's worth.

Ridin'thepine (Splintersville): Name a handful of current bench players you see carving out a role and producing fantasy worthy numbers?

Derek Carty: Obviously things would have to break right for each of these guys, but here goes: Jeff Keppinger, Kosuke Fukudome, Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Johnny Giavotella, Dave Ross, Juan Francisco, Tyler Moore, Adrian Cardenas, Chris Snyder, Allen Craig, Wilin Rosario, Nate Schierholtz

phin (Mke, WI): as a (multiple) share owner of sean marshall should i be afraid of chapman taking his job? when are the reds going to realize chapman is most valuable in the rotation?

Derek Carty: It's a concern, although I wouldn't worry too much. Baker recently said he sees Chapman as a starter in the long-term, and in the off-season he said he didn't like Chapman as a closing option because he couldn't pitch three days in a row. So far this year, he hasn't even pitched two days in a row, so despite his tremendous numbers, it doesn't seem like he'll be closing in the near-term.

Derek Carty: Thanks for hanging around with me today guys. I had a lot of fun chatting with you. I'll try to schedule another one soon. Best of luck to you over the rest of the season!


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