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The Jeremy Giambi Effect is a name given to the correlation between playing time and quality of performance. The Jeremy Giambi Effect has important implications for understanding a player's PECOTA forecast.
Following are Giambi's plate appearances and OPS for each year of his major league career
Year PA OPS
1998 70 .739
1999 336 .741
2000 302 .761
2001 443 .841
2002 397 .919
2003 156 .696
Note that the correlation between Giambi's PA and OPS is very strong (r=.72). He played more often when he played more effectively, and less so when he played less effectively. Eventually, his performance became so poor that he could no longer secure any major league playing time at all.
Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect, players that perform better will make more contribution to his weighted mean forecast. Therefore, a player's weighted mean forecast may lead to a falsely optimistic portrait of his future, particularly for players with high drop and attrition rates.
We suggest paying the most attention to the Stars & Scrubs Chart, Career Path Anaylsis, and Five-Year WARP Forecast. All of these have a more sophisticated technique to account for the Jeremy Giambi Effect, by considering dropped comparables, but assigning them a value of zero.
Jeremy Giambi Effect appears in the following BP Glossary Categories:
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