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Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.
In my book, you can’t be an All-Star based on six weeks of good play. I absolutely hate that standard for picking All-Stars, and yet every year, we hear that some guy coming off the hottest month of his life should be an All-Star over an established star playing a bit below his level.
There are two related effects we are interested in studying. The original intent of PAP was to ascertain whether a pitcher is at risk of injury or permanent reduction in effectiveness due to repeated overwork. And in particular, does PAP (or any similar formula) provide more insight into that risk that simple pitch counts alone?
As you read this, remember my standards: I’m looking for the best player, not the guy having the best season, and will generally take the established star unless said star has clearly been passed by someone else.
“He’s got a good eye, that’s for sure. I threw him some good sliders and he spit on them.”
–Tim Hudson, Athletics pitcher, on Red Sox outfielder Rickey Henderson
Friday evening, Sophia and I on were on our way to have dinner on the west side when she suggested that we take our friends, Shelley and E.J., to the Dodgers game on Saturday night.
You could have knocked me over with an eephus pitch.
There’s a big weekend in the NL Central, where the top four teams will square off in a two battles of surprises vs. favorites. The Reds travel to St. Louis, while the Astros and Pirates continue a four-game series at Enron Memorial Field (the Astros won the opener, 3-1, behind Roy Oswalt).
When a team exceeds expectations to the degree that the Expos has, it’s usually quite difficult to credit this phenomenon on a single aspect of the team’s play. In this particular instance, however, it’s dead simple. As Rob Neyer has waxed eloquent on two separate occasions, it’s all about the walks.
“They taught me how to play baseball here in Oakland. They taught me how to have fun. I don’t miss playing in Kansas City. I miss Oakland.”
–Johnny Damon, Red Sox outfielder, on returning to Oakland
Losing David Justice isn’t good news, considering I’m not a big Scott Hatteberg guy, but I am a believer when it comes to Eric Byrnes, so I guess I’m happy. Outfield defense is always going to be an issue for a unit that has Terrence Long in center field and either Justice or Jeremy Giambi in a corner. While I’m not arguing for Byrnes to play every day, he does give the A’s a hitter who puts hard-hit balls into play, who can cover an outfield corner well, and basically give the bottom of the lineup someone who can help score some of the other more walk-inclined hitters batting higher up.